FallsLake

Just looking at the GFS, we never get into an extended warm period. We cycle between warm and cold. Of course there's app/lake cutters but the cold air stays to our NW. So if we can get the blocking, we'll be able to quickly go into a winter storm pattern.

Is that for the NAVGEM? If so, where are you seeing it?

I agree. But there have been similar setups (clipper --> coastal development) that have produced for NC in the past. It's hard to do (perfect timing, etc.), but possible.

RAH still mentioning the possibility. Stating only flurries right now; but that should be expected with the uncertainty and the type of system. A strong clipper low will meanwhile have migrated to the Great Lakes by Mon morning, where it will occlude through Tue. Subsequent secondary/coastal cyclogenesis is then expected along the middle Atlantic and New England coast through the middle of the week, as the parent upr trough amplifies across the Appalachians and middle Atlantic states. Any coastal cyclogenesis is likely to be initially slow/weak, owing to the presence of fast, strongly meridional flow downstream of the trough, at least until the trough lifts across about 40N, where the presence of a strong/blocking positive height anomaly over the N. Atlantic will provide room for flow amplification. Nonetheless, that same fast flow aloft, and embedded jet streaks/upper front will favor some jet-induced precipitation from mid level cloud bases over the middle Atlantic states late Tue-early Wed. Given large spread in guidance, and the probable presence of a relatively deep, dry sub-cloud layer, will maintain continuity with the previous dry forecast. However, portions of cntl NC may indeed see at least a few sprinkles or flurries with the passage of the upr trough and related reinforcing Arctic cold front during that time; and small PoP may be introduced in subsequent forecasts.

At least RAH mentioned the possibility: .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 235 PM Thursday... A rather quiet albeit cold stretch of weather expected during this period, with high pressure predominant at least through the first half of next week. In general, expect afternoon temperatures to top out in the 30s/40s, with the warmest day of the period being Saturday thanks to leftover moisture/cloud cover across the area from the departing area of low pressure. Overnight lows through the middle of next week will remain below freezing area wide, bottoming out in the teens/20s just prior to dawn each morning. Precipitation chances are not plentiful during this stretch, as the forecast area remains just west of the right exit quadrant of the upper level jet. A frontal boundary will move through Tuesday afternoon/evening attempting to carry some light precipitation east of the mountains, but confidence in this occurring is not high. For now, have left off PoPs siding with the drier frontal passage as seen in the GFS solution, but these may need to be increased if guidance trends more toward the ECMWF over the next few runs.

Maybe we can flurry ourselves to our yearly normal.

You, up to RDU, did better than me. I got 0.5" or so. Still with the way things went, I felt lucky to get that.

Models are spitting out a variety of precip totals for the next couple of days. We really need the rain. Hopefully some of the more higher totals come to fruition for all of us.

The indices are not in our favor. The one good thing to take away from the run is there continues to be cold air available in NA. Once we get some blocking set up (..Maybe 1st of February), we'll be able to tap/use that air for a potential winter storm.

I think we get one more slime chance and then we'll have to wait until February. Even JB is talking warm for the later part of the month; and when he talks warm he's usually right.

There would be cold air to work with:

Right now the precip it gives us is limited. But maybe we get one more chance before the "warm up".

From RAH: .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 200 PM Wednesday... Any leftover moisture should exit the area to the northeast by Saturday afternoon, allowing for a much quieter, drier, and colder weather pattern to return across central North Carolina. Expect below normal temperatures as we head into next week, with high pressure building into/over the region through Sunday Night. A reinforcing cold front will push through the Mid-Atlantic by midweek, keeping colder conditions in place with little chance of liquid or frozen precipitation on the lee side of the Appalachians. Expect highs generally in the upper 30s to mid 40s, with lows at times falling into the upper teens under partly to mostly clear skies. && DEPRESSING*************************************

<typical nina> Warms up, we get a App or lake cutter, turns cold for a few days, and then repeat cycle. Cold gets bottled up to the NW and we get glancing shots after the front from the low passes. Our average temp ends up above normal because of all the lows pumping in SW winds as they pass to the north and west. <not typical> The past weeks cold that we experienced; especially in how it was centered over us. You would think we should see more typical nina type weather from this point forward. If so, we can still hope for a strong CAD event to produce a winter storm. Even though we average above normal temp wise, there will still be very cold air to our north. We just need to get a strong high to anchor itself to the north, then one of those app storms would be forced to become a miller B, and that is when we can score.

I hope so. I hate seeing the PNA go negative. That's been the one indice that has been primarily in our favor the last few years.

I did sign up but I just don't have time to follow two boards. I'll stick with this site which does have more posters from our area (...as mrdaddyman said).

Don't we need more than the AO? In years past it has seemed we need a +PNA or a -EPO to help keep the pacific at bay. Right now everything is not cooperating except the AO.

There are a lot of things (indices, LR models, inevitable flip to warm that usually happens, etc.) that say we're now going to be warm(er) for a while. Hopefully we can turn the tables by the end of the month. So I guess I'll say it; fab February will save us.

CMC still has an interesting look for the day 9/10 time frame. Extrapolating out after this it also looks cold:

Looks like we may have a tropical system to track in the LR.

Of course I'm always hoping for a colder pattern. I liked the look of the CMC at day 10, but I just looked at the indices and they don't look too good. We could lose the PNA and EPO in the LR. We start seeing too many bad pattern indices and warmth is going to win out sooner than later. Again, if so hopefully for not too long.

I agree about the storm/wave. But I was focused on the NA pattern of highs coming down from NW Canada. You would think we stay cold with that look.

CMC at day 10 actually looks good. Still a big question on what happens after this time period.

Not on this board. Some claim they like the warm over the cold but we know better. If it was 70 and sunny day after day, the panic/complain room would be brutal.

I know it's day 16 on the GFS, but it is much colder up in NW Canada than the last run. 12z was depressing. The 18z look would give us hope that we could see cold outbreaks for the end of the month.