FallsLake
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Everything posted by FallsLake
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October is coming; and if the 6z GFS is right, we'll see a lot of 80s and 90s for highs. But the GFS has been flipping back and forth between a nice cool down and more of the same warmth. I'll be interested to see what the 12z brings.
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Sure hope so. It's got to break (this pattern) sometime.
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Hey guys here's some web maps my group put out over the weekend. Any GIS folks out there, please tell me of other map services if known. Look under Florence Support Maps and Apps: https://ncdot.maps.arcgis.com/home/index.html
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Been so busy with Florence, that I haven't been focused on the extended. Probably a good thing. The eastern ridge looks to continue it's dominance for at least the next 10 days. The GFS doesn't have a good cool down until the end of its run. We could be looking at the first part of October until ACs can be shut off.
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I would love to see that track. It loops it in a complete circle whereas on day 10 it's back on the SC coast. With cool air pushing southward it would then turn into a nor'easter and head up the coast. That would be some fun tracking..
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So there was a slight shift north on some of the 6z model runs. One (FV3-GFS) now has the 6" QPF line into south Wake County. Point is I don't think there will be a radical move north, but a couple more small shift north can put many big urban areas back under the flooding threat. Something to monitor.
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It then pushes inland moving NW past Greenville and over the mountains past NE Tenn. Mountains would get good rains with this path.
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Out to 108 and the 18z FV3-GFS is following the euro. Looks to be right off the coast at Charleston after a near hit at Wilmington.
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The HWRF would swamp much of NC with very heavy precip rates. The storm comes in near Wilmington and then slowly moves east/NE with heavy rain around the center and then to the north.
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Rain totals are not bad (compared to other model runs) for inland areas. 6z GFS at hr 174:
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I think it went right on through like Fran did. This probably would be a record for NC.
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Oh, and it takes 4 days to get through NC from the initial hit to when it leaves NC north of the Triad.
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Latest 6z GFS had another crazy option. It has the storm initially hit ~Ocracoke Island, dances around for some time, then slowly move SW down the NC coast, until it enters land ~ the NC/SC boarder. It then slowly moves NW, goes through the Triad area, and then starts moving NE through VA.
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Man, the HWRF would be bad for most of NC, southern VA, western NC/SC, and even into eastern Tenn. It just slowly moves east to west/SW through the state. Even at the end of its run (hour 126), the storm is sitting just south of Charlotte. Still raining...
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Yeah, it slowly moves west dropping lots and lots of rain over eastern and central NC.
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For what it's worth, the 12z NAM at hr84 is slightly north of its 6z location at hr78. East of the GFS. At hr84 its ~60 miles SE of Cape Hatteras.
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lol....man that latest HWRF run would swamp western NC. The storm comes on shore at the SC/NC boarder and then slowly runs the boarder for two days. It focuses the heaviest precip on the western Piedmont and the mountains. No precip totals from the maps but it looks to be worse than what the euro is showing (..from my untrained eyes).
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You know how these hurricanes work; you could go to DC and it ends up affecting that area more than ours. Might be a good time to visit Disney World. I think that area is safe.
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Honestly I don't know. The best bet for us is to follow the NHC track/cone. They do look at the models but also put their years of meteorology to work to make the best guess at where this thing will eventually go.
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So the 6z HWRF did come in considerably south of the 0z run. It hits just south of the NC/SC boarder and then moves NW. Definitely a trend towards the euro.
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But the 6z HMON is coming in north. Looks like an initial hit just north of Cape Lookout. The 6z HWRF is slightly SW of it previous run at hour 75. Looks like it could be a Wilmington hit. Bottom line, there's going to be a lot of small adjustments all the way to go-time. And even then, the storm won't do exactly what is modeled.
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The one nice thing about the latest GFS run is it pulls in really nice cool air as the storm meanders back to the SE. So if there is mass power outages, we won't swelter in the heat.
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12z NAM (at hr84) is west of the 6z GFS (at hr90).
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Just checked the generator and it's working fine. I'll start filling 5 gallon drums late Tuesday if it looks like it'll directly affect my area. The weather wienie in myself would love for this to hit Wilmington and then plow right for RDU. But the logical part of me says keep this away. I went through Fran and not having power for a couple of weeks sucks.
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Hey if you look way out on day 16 of the GFS....But you got to look right now at the 12z. Don't wait until 18z.
