FallsLake

Here's the euro:

Yeah, I guess it's better than having nothing. You would think that one of these 8-10 day storms will eventually work out.

It would be funny if the FV3 and euro showed snow on their 12z run. They were the ones that initially saw something.

Nope, and the Canadian went down as well. But on the positive side, the Canadian does have a nice storm showing in the 8/9 day range.............................................................................

Good news with the indices today: PNA - Now looks to stay positive into the LR **last couple of days it was showing negative AO - Continues to show strongly negative NAO - Continues to show positive **but what's new I'll take a +PNA and -AO combo any day. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

It uses the JB calculation.

I think if we can get the precip behind the front (as discussed), we'll have no issues with it being snow; especially with the surface temps quickly crashing through the 20s. We've had these type of event in the past, problem is they're rare. This is where our friends over in Tennessee and even into NW Ga usually do better. **mountains really help our forum with CAD but kill us with these type of events (usually).

From RAH (not a lot but they did mention it): Another surge of cold air is expected with the cold front expected to move through the area on Tuesday. Any precip with the system is expected to be generally along and behind the system. This may lead to a brief change over from rain to snow before the light precip exits. Regardless, much colder temps will filer into central NC again by mid next week, with lows ranging from the mid 20s NW to the lower to mid 30s SE and highs ranging from the upper 30s NW to the mid 40s S/SE.

That's not as bad as I thought. That's within the "swings" you would expect at this range for a small event.

Looks like the 6z FV3 took a step back on the potential event next week. Don't have totals but definitely not the 3-4" shown at 0z. The euro really didn't have anything as well. At this point, if I had to bet I would say this will be a none to minimal event.

^^And it's (6z) trying to joint the party for the next weeks possible event (step in the right direction):

yep:

It's a problem with Tidbits. You can use: http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php

It hasn't really had anything for the last few runs. On the latest 12z run, it does have some back building snows in NE NC. It also shows a smaller system that drops a dusting to 1" in N. NC and S. VA on the 29th.

You might get your wish; here is the 12z Canadian:

This time of year we normally don't need a perfect pattern. What it really comes down to is we need a little luck; as always.

The PNA looks to go negative in the medium range but does jump back neutral/positive in the LR. The AO stays strongly negative. I wont even comment on the NAO. I'm afraid that the cold will start dumping in the west and keep us in the rain/cold/warm up/rain/cold... pattern. Not sure what the EPO is doing (site I use is down.....Budget). That could help us if it is negative.

Good...that may bring the snow. If you had ordered a snow shovel we would have been doomed.

From RAH for tonight's event: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 330 PM Tuesday... Clear skies will give way to developing overcast skies tonight from the S and W, as the cold surface high shifts E off the Mid Atlantic coast. This will induce an increasingly moist low level flow, profound warming at 925-850 mb, and deepening upglide focusing on the southern then western forecast area, as the cold dry surface air gradually moistens with lowering cloud bases overnight. This is a somewhat challenging forecast, as the initial surface wet bulb temps, especially across the Piedmont, will be well below zero. While these readings will be trending upward from SE to NW late, in lockstep with the arrival of spotty precip, these readings are still likely to be near or below freezing over the far NW Piedmont through daybreak. Given the dry air above 700 mb (and above -10C) and subsequent lack of ice in the clouds, precip should be mostly in the form of drizzle or freezing drizzle. As the expectations are for very spotty light precip with the shallow lift, it`s difficult to say with much confidence how much coverage we`ll see. But all it will take is a trace of freezing drizzle to produce enough glazing for travel problems, especially with the recent cold air and observed 4" soil temps already down in the low-mid 30s over the Piedmont. Based on multiple models including convection-allowing models, the far W Triad region will see the greatest chance for an overlap of substantial low level ascent with the still-sub-freezing wet bulbs, so have left the winter weather advisory in place for a chance of light glazing. Models suggest that southern sections will see wet bulbs recovering just above freezing late, reducing the risk of icing there. But I would not be at all surprised to see a light but impactful ice accrual further E and SE outside of the advisory area, even into W portions of the Triangle and down toward Albemarle and Southern Pines, within the battle zone of the encroaching precip and slowly rising temps. Will continue to mention this potential in the hazardous weather outlook, and will monitor the evolution of precip to our S and SE through the evening to determine if an expansion in the advisory will be required. Expect early lows in the mid 20s to around 30, with temps rising overnight. -GIH

Right at the base of the mountains there's > .25". Even down into SC there's spots of .20". The above map would be bad for the morning commute. Again, I think this could be a perfectly timed event that puts out minimal precip but causes maximum affect.

Has higher totals there as well. Honestly if I was the NWS I would consider Winter Storm Watches. Cold surfaces with below freezing temps and occurring overnight.

The NAM continues to show an ice potential for areas in NE Ga, up state, and western NC. Even has some light ice at RDU. Most likely there will only be Advisors, but this could become very significant because of the cold road surfaces. .15" of freezing rain with the current cold temps would be much worse the .25 (or even higher) with warmer ground temps (like our last event).

^^I agree this has sucked. We just need to get one of these storms to stayed modeled within 5 days. In the past it was 7 days; heck we created threads 7/8 days out. But with how the models have been performing lately, it's 5 days max.

I would still take the 6z FV3 at face value. It has a small event (1-2") at day 7/8 and then a more significant event at the end of the run. Point is, these models don't have a clue. We're seeing big swings in the medium and LR, not just in the finer details but the overall pattern depiction.

If we actually get the cold the models have been advertising, I think suppression will happen and eastern snow will occur. Again, it's been some time since the Coastal Plain folks (especial south of Rocky Mount) have scored anything.