Sydney Claridge

Yep, looks like some heavy storms (one of which looks like a hail producer) have quickly gone up around Abilene.

7z HRRR is trying to bring a huge supercell across the DFW area at 12z this morning, and the 6z run shows what appears to be some fairly potent storms entering DFW at 11z. Since the 5z HRRR run that model has been ramping up the threat for DFW in particular it seems. There is plenty of surface-based instability around (around 1500 J/kg) so I guess there is always the chance that something could go surface-based, but I hope the storms do stay elevated for obvious reasons if they even try to get as intense as the HRRR runs are showing.

Wow. There's very little (if any) instability there, so it looks like a line of showers with severe wind gusts. There must be strong winds just above the surface or something... I'm not sure, but I believe that's a sign of fairly dynamic storm system. EDIT: It seems like SPC Mesoanalysis is showing around 250 J/kg of MLCAPE there.

And it looks like an area of storms which formed well to the west of DFW are falling apart near Graham and Jacksboro.

I'm now getting a bit more intrigued about the storms that should take place overnight from tonight into tomorrow morning. SPC put up a risk for significant hail (15% hatched) from the DFW Metroplex to the I-40 corridor in eastern Oklahoma, and a 5% tornado risk NE of DFW. Models are showing significant VBV for DFW/North Texas in particular, though. But it seems that the tornado risk should be highest tomorrow (3/8) over the Mississippi Valley in the Mid-South region per SPC's issuance of a Day 2 Enhanced risk there (in the "maximum risk by hazard" section of their Day 2 write-up SPC is preliminarily going with 10% hatched).

That's for the 3/12 system based on the timestamps that I see. I had thought that one had looked a bit more like a squall line based on the GFS models I had been looking at anyways. What do you think of the 3/9 system?

GFS and the GFS-FV3 seems to bring a front with storms through the DFW area early-to-mid morning, whereas the Euro seems to be slowing that front down a bit (bringing it through DFW around noon). For my location, it would be interesting to see if the other models trend to slowing down the front as the event draws closer. Still a few days out so we'll have to see, but currently it sounds like this would be more of a concern for east Texas than for DFW. EDIT: though not for this timeframe, it is also interesting to see the GFS and Euro show another storm system next Tuesday as well. I'm wondering if we are about to move into a pattern that is much more conducive for severe thunderstorms (and not just because of the change in seasons).

Me too. GFS is showing a pattern suggestive of cold waves in the Northern and Central Plains (along with surging cold fronts) but I'm not counting on that to translate into the Southern Plains as I've always noticed a cold bias with the GFS in the longer ranges.

And we're down to a Slight Risk now. According to the reports so far the Moderate Risk seems like a bust, aside from the Columbus tornado. (there's not many severe reports in the former MDT zone)

And I'm shocked hardly that people in the TN Valley or SE subforums are not really talking about this event either. Right now the warm front appears to be in northern LA and central MS (based on the northernmost edge of the surface CAPE) but we all know that is going to move north into TN over the next several hours. I guess I'm just getting a bit concerned about contamination of the warm sector here given the current location of storms in the Arklatex (but those aren't even in an area with surface CAPE at the moment) and the current precipitation over northern MS and TN. I'm not worried about contamination in MS, but more so in TN.

Just wanted to pitch in and say that today's 0z NAM3K solution looks a bit ominous for W TN and N MS, with broken cells traversing across a fairly high-EHI environment. 0Z HRRR is even more ominous, showing isolated cells from south-central MS up into central IL (with dewpoints >= 60F even there), with particularly severe-looking cells ahead of the cold front (which itself has broken cells along it) from south-central MS into southernmost KY, though I'm aware that specific model can be somewhat overdone.

And SPC drops the lower Ohio valley from an Enhanced risk all the way down to a Marginal risk for the Day 2 outlook, trimming back the ENH to just north of Memphis, TN.

NAM is trending weaker and further south over the last few runs, affecting the anticipated moisture return in the lower Ohio Valley and moving the warm front location closer to the Ohio River. It's not much further south, but a weaker storm would lower the potential for severe further north whereas a stronger storm further to the N or NW would allow for more moisture return. Beyond the range of the NAM, it seems that many of the models are suggesting a "Freshwater Fury" storm with pressure dropping to near or below 980 mbar over Ontario. The GFS and GFS-FV3, plus the ECMWF, are displaying a system below 975 mbar. If this storm were to bomb before reaching the Lakes the severe potential would likely be even higher. I would expect the strongest storms to be in the eastern part of my sub (AR and LA) and also W TN and W MS by the looks of things, though. EDIT: SPC is now saying that E AR, the western 2/3 of TN, N MS, and the western half of KY (up to a point SW of Louisville) will be in a Day 3 Enhanced risk at the 30% hatched level; this also includes small slivers of SE MO, S IL, and S IN along the Mississippi and Ohio rivers.

NE Texas is in the Day 6, so they might get involved it seems. Like you said, barring a westward shift, north-central Texas and DFW probably will not be involved. Seems like a potential western Dixie and mid-Mississippi/Lower Ohio valley event based on the SPC outlook thus far.

I was noticing that on the model runs as well. What are the probabilities that north-central and NE TX gets involved here? (though it's probably a bit early to say) Today's 12z and 18z GFS runs are at least hinting at the idea (though somewhat earlier in the day), but that is just two runs of the same model. The potential event is still over a week out so the models will definitely become more refined as it draws closer, and perhaps more questions can be answered then.

I cannot help but notice that the models are depicting a fairly active pattern over the next few weeks, with multiple systems off the Pacific coast (some fairly strong), and some staying fairly strong as they emerge onto the Plains. If we can get sufficient moisture return (the big "if" in February), perhaps we might be entering a favorable pattern for severe thunderstorms soon if the models verify.

And the slight risk is back into the DFW metro as well, and even now extends south of DFW for wind and hail. Highest tornado probabilities (5% within 25 miles) are in the northern section of the metro northwards to the Red River and over towards NE TX, SE OK, and central AR. It's also interesting to see the elevated thunderstorms in NW OK, where there is a severe thunderstorm warning in effect for an area where some of the surface temperatures are hovering near the freezing mark. Now if only that activity was in the warm sector...

This isn't my subforum, but I did find it interesting that the 0z NAM and 0z NAM3K are trying to bring lower 60s dewpoints into southern and central Ohio for Thursday, along with small amounts of SBCAPE. The model is also showing the moist air in southern IL and southern IN as well, though it penetrates further north in OH and at a more ideal time of day (afternoon). Some of the earlier NAM runs had the same or similar dewpoints reaching southern and central Ohio. Plenty of helicity too. That said, I understand that the NAM models can be a bit overdone sometimes.

I know it's still early, but I'm already starting to get a bit concerned for this year's severe weather season with the arctic outbreaks happening over the eastern US, especially if the whole pattern with western ridging and eastern troughing gets established; to my understanding, this pattern ruined the severe season many times in the middle of this decade. With drought expanding in the west there may be more concern for western ridging. That said, if a western ridge can be combined with a ridge over the East Coast and troughing in the central U.S. (as the aforementioned CPC outlook seems to suggest) then maybe we will get several storm systems that move from the southern Plains towards the Great Lakes region. To my (limited) understanding this would be better with La Niña conditions though if you wanted to bet on tornado outbreaks. I'm going to be a bit more optimistic here and guess first high risk on April 11th in the southern Plains, with 1200 tornadoes overall.

Only marginal risk on Friday. Perhaps a little bit of hail (especially in North Texas) but little surface-based instability as per SPC. I wasn't going in expecting anything either.

Agreed. Even just looking at the RAP used on the SPC Mesoanalysis site, that model placed the freezing line about three counties too far west. At least most of DFW seems to be above freezing (though just barely) now, though some places in Tarrant and Denton counties still seem to be at or just below the freezing mark.

Interesting note regarding the location of the freezing line. Some of the personal weather stations on Wundermap (accuracy is a concern though) are averaging around 32 in portions of southern Dallas County (and close to it in Irving and NW Dallas County), and even in the areas that based on radar data appear to be just plain rain in SE Tarrant are averaging around 32 as well. Here in west Fort Worth a light coating of ice has formed on my tree branches. It will be interesting to see how far west the freezing line shifts over the next few hours, and part of me wonders if it will not shift as far west as forecasted. Hopefully the freezing line shifts west out of DFW in the next couple of hours as forecasted, before there is an opportunity for ice accumulation to become a major issue.

I'm on the west side of Fort Worth and there is currently a light rain with temperatures just below freezing (31F), with most of Tarrant County (aside from the easternmost portions) also at or just below freezing. Paved surfaces seem wet and not icy at the present moment, although there does seem to be a little bit of ice on surfaces that are less likely to retain warmth (like leaves and the metal railing just outside my house). Concern for icing seems to be further west where precipitation has yet to develop (but will), as per SPC mesoscale discussion.

Should be interesting to watch, that's for sure. And in fact, this morning's 6z NAM run is showing a potential icing event from the Hill Country up towards DFW, with greater ice accumulations showing up around Llano and Gatesville (with the event ongoing at the end of the run, though it's too early to delineate where winter precipitation may accumulate at this time). But like you mentioned, the GFS and other global models are not picking up on anything.

Not severe at the moment but there appears to be strengthening cell on radar near San Saba, TX. There is good overlap between helicity and instability there per the SPC mesoscale analysis page. SPC also just issued a "tornado watch likely" mesoscale discussion for this area as well.