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About BrandonC_TX

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    Fort Worth, TX

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  1. We have a tornado watch in North Dakota for today. Meanwhile, across the Canadian border in Manitoba it looks like there is a storm with significant rotation:
  2. Might that be rotation trying to form northeast of Rochelle?
  3. There is also a severe-warned storm behind this one (Marion, OH area). Would not be surprised if that one could clip the northeastern portions of the Columbus area only if that storm takes a right-turn. Ingredients for tornadoes are much better in northern Illinois per SPC mesoanalysis. Watch those storms west of Rochelle and Rockford as they move east, could be a concern as they approach Chicagoland.
  4. I doubt that Euro run will verify (several Euro runs are showing a major storm over the Great Lakes), but if it did, it would not surprise me to see an outbreak of severe thunderstorms associated with it. Some GFS runs have also showed a major Great Lakes storm in the same time frame. Getting a low like that in June is practically unheard of, and if it verifies, it could be something to end the tornado drought (from May) as well.
  5. 0-3km EHI is as high as 10 along the OR/WA border. I have never seen values that high in the Pacific Northwest before, but keep in mind that LCL heights are very high. Storm south of (and moving towards) Bend, OR has lower LCL heights.
  6. Even though the one to the south is the tornado producer, that storm to the north of Streator (near Ottawa) still bears watching as it is moving straight for the Chicago metro area.
  7. Aside from the risk for hail, tornadoes, and wind, I am getting very concerned about flooding potential near and west of Bowie, TX. These storms have stalled over this area for quite some time, with heavy precipitation, and they may only now be starting to increase their forward motion. There are also other storms behind this complex as well. The big question is whether this complex will take a right turn and impact the northern areas of the Metroplex.
  8. I wonder if that is an MCV associated with that activity near Bowie, TX? Storm motions seem to be rotating around a point near Bowie.
  9. Storm over Wichita Falls looks to be developing rotation. It looks as if that storm has caught up to the outflow boundary ahead of it and is latching onto that OFB.
  10. I'm starting to wonder if SPC overestimated the effects of the outflow boundary with respect to their re-positioning of the ENH risk earlier. The significant hail is currently materializing north of the ENH risk and the hatching, but that storm SW of Bellevue, TX still bears watching, especially if it becomes a right-mover. That storm has just taken on supercellular characteristics (including a hook), so it may take a right turn pretty soon. EDIT: couplet SW of Bellevue:
  11. Tornado warning also issued for that storm just northwest of Wichita Falls. Radar indicated at this time. EDIT: confirmed tornado west of Burkburnett according to livestream from Channel 6 in Wichita Falls.
  12. Looks like there is a major hail storm ongoing northwest of Wichita Falls now, it is warned for up to 3-inch hail. There may be some additional attempts at convective initation in the Graham/Jacksboro area per radar and satellite imagery; some of the ingredients there seem better for severe weather (supercell composite, SigTor, EHI, etc.), compared with southern OK, although that Red River storm is in a perfect position to produce large hail.
  13. Attempts at convective initiation around Graham and Jacksboro seem to be struggling at this moment. Some light radar returns are present there, although nothing significant has formed yet.
  14. Looks like some attempts at convective initiation may be occurring near Jacksboro, TX.
  15. Enhanced risk is now centered over north Texas, including the Metroplex, and has been trimmed away from southern OK. OFB is now over the Metroplex, albeit with strong heating on the immediate north side of the boundary based on observations and SPC outlook.