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About BrandonC_TX

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    Fort Worth, TX

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  1. Not even a 2% tornado risk today but yet we are currently seeing tornado warnings north of Columbus, OH. This does include Franklin County, generally the northeastern part around New Albany. It surprised me when I noticed said warnings.
  2. NBC4 Washington on-air met thinks a tornado warning may be coming in for DC soon, hook over NW DC. I did notice an outflow boundary on radar earlier west of Arlington/south of McLean along I-66, however.
  3. Hopefully that turn happens sooner than later. The current forecast track is bad news for Lake Charles, with the eyewall potentially impacting there. Still, a Louisiana landfall is the better-case scenario, population-wise, over a Texas landfall. I would still feel very concerned if I were in Galveston, though. Regardless of where the eye comes ashore, this is a large storm. The Houston-Galveston area is forecast to see tropical storm conditions, especially in the eastern part of the metro. But it seems like the worst of the storm could occur anywhere from Beaumont (with a later turn) to east of Lake Charles (earlier turn). The timing of this turn will determine impacts on the upper Texas coast.
  4. Oh no, that doesn’t look good...
  5. That line up by Saint Cloud just lit up with 4 tornado warnings. Looks like another couplet is forming on a tornado-Warner supercell (ahead of the line) just north of Brownton, MN as well. The Brownton storm might try to make a run at the Twin Cities metro if it holds together.
  6. I'm starting to wonder about those storms west of the Twin Cities. Not seeing anything too strong with rotation at this time, but they are all isolated storms in a favorable environment. The severe-warned storm south of Buffalo Lake may be one to watch. There also appears to be a couple of couplets near West Union (along I-94), but these look to be on the frontal boundary itself.
  7. Hopefully things stay that way. I absolutely do not want to see a significant storm impact the Texas coast, especially with the state of the pandemic across Texas. But this hurricane season is only getting started (and looks to be a potentially-significant one), so there is always the possibility.
  8. I've noticed that SPC has included hatching on 15% wind risks, starting earlier this year, when there is potential for a major damaging wind event but there is a degree of uncertainty as to whether said threat will actually materialize (such as capping, etc.).
  9. We have a tornado watch in North Dakota for today. Meanwhile, across the Canadian border in Manitoba it looks like there is a storm with significant rotation:
  10. Might that be rotation trying to form northeast of Rochelle?
  11. There is also a severe-warned storm behind this one (Marion, OH area). Would not be surprised if that one could clip the northeastern portions of the Columbus area only if that storm takes a right-turn. Ingredients for tornadoes are much better in northern Illinois per SPC mesoanalysis. Watch those storms west of Rochelle and Rockford as they move east, could be a concern as they approach Chicagoland.
  12. I doubt that Euro run will verify (several Euro runs are showing a major storm over the Great Lakes), but if it did, it would not surprise me to see an outbreak of severe thunderstorms associated with it. Some GFS runs have also showed a major Great Lakes storm in the same time frame. Getting a low like that in June is practically unheard of, and if it verifies, it could be something to end the tornado drought (from May) as well.
  13. 0-3km EHI is as high as 10 along the OR/WA border. I have never seen values that high in the Pacific Northwest before, but keep in mind that LCL heights are very high. Storm south of (and moving towards) Bend, OR has lower LCL heights.
  14. Even though the one to the south is the tornado producer, that storm to the north of Streator (near Ottawa) still bears watching as it is moving straight for the Chicago metro area.
  15. Aside from the risk for hail, tornadoes, and wind, I am getting very concerned about flooding potential near and west of Bowie, TX. These storms have stalled over this area for quite some time, with heavy precipitation, and they may only now be starting to increase their forward motion. There are also other storms behind this complex as well. The big question is whether this complex will take a right turn and impact the northern areas of the Metroplex.