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About BrandonC_TX

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    Fort Worth, TX

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  1. Aside from a few warnings here and there, this was a complete bust. There were no severe weather reports at all per SPC (at the time of this post), quite surprising for a day that started out with an Enhanced risk (and a 10% tornado contour), albeit this was later downgraded.
  2. Spring 2020 was interesting, with a particularly intense period in April, but tornadic activity dropped off pretty quickly after that, with a quiet autumn to boot. I'm going to assume that 2021 could be an intense season, with a La Niña currently in place. I know that a transitioning La Niña favors an uptick in tornadic activity in the Southern Plains (Texas-Oklahoma), but that Dixie Alley and the Ohio Valley often see increased activity in cases of a resurgent La Niña (see "US regional tornado outbreaks and their links to spring ENSO phases and North Atlantic SST variability" by Lee et al.). Forecast precipitation anomalies seem to show increased precipitation in the Ohio Valley in particular. I'm going to place my bets on an active 2021 season for Dixie Alley and the Ohio Valley.
  3. There’s quite the temperature divide across the Houston metro this morning, with 50s in the far west suburbs (Katy), with 40s not too much further west, but generally upper 60s over the rest of the metro. Definitely cannot rule out severe storms in the Houston area until the front passes through (which it should do in the next few hours as the storm system moves NE). The storm coming ashore at Surfside Beach looks slightly isolated and now has a severe thunderstorm warning with “tornado possible” wording indicated.
  4. We actually had some favorable values (EHI, SigTor, VTP) earlier that showed up on the SPC Mesoanalysis between DFW and the Red River. Some of those values were pretty high (there were VTPs exceeding 9, for instance) before the storms came through, so I’m not surprised at all that there were a few tornado-warned storms.
  5. No wonder why COVID has preyed on this country so much. None of our politicians seem to have the chutzpah to rein in the junk food industry, and the false narrative of "personal choice" (look up "food deserts") continues to be an issue. As much as I hate to say it, our country was primed for a pandemic that would come in, spread, and take advantage of the large number of people who are overweight or obese. Our healthcare system was apparently designed to deal with acute illnesses, and fails miserably at the treatment and prevention of certain chronic illnesses ("pre-existing conditions") that can contribute to severe cases of COVID. Preventing things like this in the future might require a full-on "War on Obesity," and politicians (and others) will have to make many hard decisions (and challenge the powerful junk-food lobby) should they follow this path.
  6. Not even a 2% tornado risk today but yet we are currently seeing tornado warnings north of Columbus, OH. This does include Franklin County, generally the northeastern part around New Albany. It surprised me when I noticed said warnings.
  7. NBC4 Washington on-air met thinks a tornado warning may be coming in for DC soon, hook over NW DC. I did notice an outflow boundary on radar earlier west of Arlington/south of McLean along I-66, however.
  8. Hopefully that turn happens sooner than later. The current forecast track is bad news for Lake Charles, with the eyewall potentially impacting there. Still, a Louisiana landfall is the better-case scenario, population-wise, over a Texas landfall. I would still feel very concerned if I were in Galveston, though. Regardless of where the eye comes ashore, this is a large storm. The Houston-Galveston area is forecast to see tropical storm conditions, especially in the eastern part of the metro. But it seems like the worst of the storm could occur anywhere from Beaumont (with a later turn) to east of Lake Charles (earlier turn). The timing of this turn will determine impacts on the upper Texas coast.
  9. That line up by Saint Cloud just lit up with 4 tornado warnings. Looks like another couplet is forming on a tornado-Warner supercell (ahead of the line) just north of Brownton, MN as well. The Brownton storm might try to make a run at the Twin Cities metro if it holds together.
  10. I'm starting to wonder about those storms west of the Twin Cities. Not seeing anything too strong with rotation at this time, but they are all isolated storms in a favorable environment. The severe-warned storm south of Buffalo Lake may be one to watch. There also appears to be a couple of couplets near West Union (along I-94), but these look to be on the frontal boundary itself.
  11. Hopefully things stay that way. I absolutely do not want to see a significant storm impact the Texas coast, especially with the state of the pandemic across Texas. But this hurricane season is only getting started (and looks to be a potentially-significant one), so there is always the possibility.
  12. I've noticed that SPC has included hatching on 15% wind risks, starting earlier this year, when there is potential for a major damaging wind event but there is a degree of uncertainty as to whether said threat will actually materialize (such as capping, etc.).
  13. We have a tornado watch in North Dakota for today. Meanwhile, across the Canadian border in Manitoba it looks like there is a storm with significant rotation:
  14. Might that be rotation trying to form northeast of Rochelle?