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BrandonC_TX

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About BrandonC_TX

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KDFW
  • Gender
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  • Location:
    Fort Worth, TX

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  1. BrandonC_TX

    April 17-18 Severe Weather

    That said, I believe those storms may have a northeasterly motion, so DFW may indeed get hit by storms.
  2. BrandonC_TX

    April 17-18 Severe Weather

    It seems that the echo tops and radar returns estimated by the DFW radar have increased on that area of precipitation near Hico and Meridian; let's see if this is trying to initiate into something.
  3. BrandonC_TX

    April 17-18 Severe Weather

    It looks pretty minor on radar right now, but I wonder about that little area of precipitation around Hico and Meridian right now, though it looks like it is struggling. If it can initiate into something bigger, on the track the storms seem to be taking, it could be a threat to DFW later on. Otherwise, it looks like DFW may have to wait for the storms that are currently down around Brownwood, unless something else tries to fire up. I've also noticed light radar returns over Parker County and have been wondering if they represent some sort of wind shift or boundary; there also seems to be some sort of boundary about midway between Breckenridge and Mineral Wells.
  4. BrandonC_TX

    April 17-18 Severe Weather

    Surface CAPE has also rapidly increased (3000-3500 J/kg) and so has the MLCAPE (2000-2500 J/kg) per SPC Mesoanalysis for Fort Worth and Tarrant County. Once this cap breaks I have a feeling there could be some big storms.
  5. BrandonC_TX

    April 17-18 Severe Weather

    Got some good clearing (partly cloudy) here in Fort Worth. Now it’s just a matter of waiting for the storms to fire up I guess.
  6. BrandonC_TX

    April 17-18 Severe Weather

    18z and 00z HRRR runs have discrete storms forming up near DFW at around 6-7pm or so: NAM and NAM3K (0z) have the storms moving through DFW about 3 hours later (and more linear on the 3K). Texas Tech's model also shows storms for DFW around the 7pm timeframe as well. Not total agreement among the CAMs shown on Pivotal Weather (including the HRW models) though; that said, I'm getting a bit concerned about the possibility of another damaging hailstorm in/near DFW if one of the models showing discrete storms does verify. I know there were some issues about VBV brought up with respect to the tornado threat though, but some of the models I've been looking at seem to lessen that a little bit (I believe).
  7. BrandonC_TX

    April 17-18 Severe Weather

    SPC sticking with an Enhanced Risk for Day 2. Northern edge of the 30% hatched zone shifted north to include OKC now as well. The entire 30% hatched zone encompasses the I-35 corridor from OKC to Austin. Sig hatching is for hail per the maximum risk by hazard section of the outlook, but they also mention 10% TOR probabilities (non-hatched) as a maximum risk too.
  8. BrandonC_TX

    April 17-18 Severe Weather

    I'm starting to get a bit concerned here in Fort Worth. The 18z NAM-based and GFS-based models show the storm threat a bit later though (either in the evening or early overnight hours), so maybe if those verify that could temper things a bit.
  9. BrandonC_TX

    April 17-18 Severe Weather

    The NAM (today's 18z run) is suggesting some potential for tornadic supercells near and east of DFW, albeit with some VBV issues, though like StormChaser4Life said, it's long-range NAM so take it with a grain of salt. GFS-based models show less EHI across the North Texas area, and would suggest more of a threat in East Texas.
  10. BrandonC_TX

    April 14 Severe Weather

    TOR probabilities dropped back to 5% in SE OH.
  11. BrandonC_TX

    April 14 Severe Weather

    And it looks like another batch of precipitation is trying to get going east of Cincinnati (but west of that band extending across KY into central OH), in the area near Mt Orab.
  12. BrandonC_TX

    April 14 Severe Weather

    Looks like that storm has also left behind a gust front from Springfield down towards Xenia.
  13. BrandonC_TX

    April 14 Severe Weather

    Columbus is going to have to watch that area of storms moving in from the south, especially for the eastern half of the metro area. I believe that was the line that the earlier models really wanted to blow up into something significant. The HRRR has kind of backed down a bit though, but it is also not handling the storms near Dayton very well either.
  14. BrandonC_TX

    April 14 Severe Weather

    I thought for some reason it looked like that storm near Dayton was trying to develop a hook. I have a friend who is from New Carlisle so I'm definitely watching this.
  15. BrandonC_TX

    April 14 Severe Weather

    Definitely eying those storms near Cincinnati for sure. Seems to be a pretty good environment there per SPC mesoanalysis.
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