Torchageddon

EC dropping the big one with a tornado watch locally quite early: Tornado Watch Issued at 12:03 Tuesday 14 September 2021 Summary Conditions are favourable for the development of severe thunderstorms which may produce tornadoes. Hazards: Tornadoes Large hail up to ping pong ball size Wind gusts up to 120 km/h Heavy downpours Timing: This afternoon and evening. Discussion: A line of severe thunderstorms is expected to move eastward across the regions this afternoon and into the evening. Some of these storms will likely contain tornadoes. I think they got spooked from last Tuesday with the largest tornado in Ontario history occurring near Kingsbridge-Lucknow (1300 meters wide). For comparison the violent tornadoes of May 31 1985 here were 200 and 600 meters respectively!! This tornado watch is the largest geographically I've seen too:

Uh I'm right here . Thrilled about my 7-day forecast, lots of warmth and humidity coming with storm chances once again on Tues . Days even reaching 72F with cold mornings are pissing me off already so just 2 days of that to go then its out.

Most incredible bow echo I've seen ripping through extreme SON currently: I also had my 13th storm of 2021 this morning, not forecast whatsoever. The last 7 days have been nothing short of wild here, total reversal from the last 5 years of BS!!

Here it comes, this could be fun. I'm always on high alert during Sep storms. I'm up to 29C already. Full sun all day so far to destabilize the most for a storm in years .

It was a crazy day yesterday for a variety of reasons, including the most widespread storm coverage I've seen in my province in a very long time. Yet again like the 11th the bulk of the rain was to my south so I only got some sprinkles out of a huge MCS coming through that extended down to Indiana which I can't believe. It kinked in such a way I got frequent lightning for over 90 minutes straight to my south and that makes it the 10th storm of 2021 and the first time in eons that I've had two days in a row of evening storms nearly at the same time; like the good old days. The skies looked incredible just as the potent lightning was ramping up . It seemed like every sq mile of ON got storms on Sun as the coverage was complete. There were tor warnings up in central ON as well. This was the last day of the bulk of the epic heat and humidity, I got to 33ºC yet again which I probably haven't experienced on the 29th of Aug before with a humidex over 40C. Sitting in the shade late in the afternoon was even too much after 20 mins. I'm not surprised how many cells re-ignited due to the CAPE levels.

I'm already down to 20ºC, not even close to the highest minimum of 23C. Its exceptionally difficult to get an overnight low that high here.

I'm receiving my 9th storm of the year from this avg MCS, 3 years ago today I got my 1st storm that year . Obviously this season is a dramatic improvement in the t-storm department compared to the last 3-4 years. EC couldn't help it, they issued a svr t-storm warning for what is definitely not one. 90 km/h winds possible and I got 11 km/h max during the storm . Reached 33ºC for a high which is in the top 8 temps of 2021 and the warmest minimum is forecast at 22-23ºC overnight.

Maximum Sustained Wind Overall (mph): 140Maximum Sustained Wind at Landfall (mph): 120Pressure at Landfall (mb): 948 mbLandfall Location: SSE of Amelia (Directly south of Gibson)

Tomorrow has the potential to be the hottest day of the year, just after Saturday's highest. TWN giving me a 33ºC feeling like 43C (highest humidex forecast in 2021). This is just a wicked heatwave for SON. My 7-day was dramatically increased for temps and humidex removing the temp cooldown on Thurs/Fri. I'll have to comb through my data but this streak of above 27-28C with the sultry is becoming insane. 2nd half of Aug 2016 didn't have sweat equity like this that I know of.

The nearly stationary pop up storms are mainly migrating NW which is an exceptionally rare vector around here. Constant thunder at 5pm. Early in the afternoon I was getting 33ºC for a hour or so. For 10 mins I got to 34.3ºC which may have been the hottest temp of 2021 so far . Its rare to get my yearly high this late in the summer. This is a low-key brutal heatwave (not technically a heatwave though) that is ongoing if the forecast holds 8-9 days with humidex readings 35-40C all those days . This is the hottest stretch for this specific range that I've experienced with near 30C all these days that I recall but 2016 was also similar.

Last week and now this week has been amazing, I've been feeling better since the heat has ramped up. I've had t-storm chances everyday since Weds and the upcoming days will be the most muggy of the summer with storms . I may have reached 32ºC already, morning air was superb.

As expected, the chance of t-storms was removed for today and this morning they did the 1 hour slot t-shower risk jig for 4pm which always puzzles me because we all know that's not even a 2% risk; they removed that by 1 . One bad forecast after another. Tomorrow looks similar to the last few days just with higher winds.

My forecast today was afternoon chance of t-storms for 5 hours with some scattered shower potential and instead there is absolutely nothing precip wise anywhere in the Great Lakes or CU formation . That's one of the biggest busts I've seen this summer as typically there would be at least a few pop ups somewhere in the province with %s that high. Other than a cap, did the smoke cause an unforeseen effect? I still have a chance of a t-storm at 10pm only listed for whatever reason. Tomorrow has a repeat forecast so I'm hoping for the same outcome.

The rain I had early this morning cleared out far faster than predicted, I'm getting sunny breaks as of 9am and it looks like another day has been salvaged! Its been a good week for this.

I woke up to a thunderstorm early this morning that wasn't forecast or indicated as a possibility from TWN. Their accuracy is so terrible now that the hourly had me with partly sunny skies with shower potential til 10am . Good thunder and some lightning that made it the 2nd most substantial storm of 2021. Strong multi-cluster waves kept coming onshore then weakening rapidly before it got here which meant meager rain. Exactly as desired, the precip moved out rapidly and 6 hours ahead of schedule the sun has come out . The day is salvaged.

Deja Vu, I'm under a tornado warning as those cells coming onshore from Lake Huron are rotating and EC this time was proactive by issuing the warning before the cell made land. This is basically exactly Sat Jun 26 just with more heavy rain beforehand. This time its moving slower at 35 km/h so maybe if I drop south I could intercept it if it holds together.

Now yesterday was the 10th anniversary of the hottest temp I've experienced at home at 37ºC with an extreme humidex to match, a very great day. The ridge was immense and historic, over 600 dm in a spot or two. Weds wasn't that warm but at least it was sunny for the entire day for once, felt nice.

https://www.instagram.com/p/CRXAHXQFPyN/?utm_medium=copy_link I can't believe it. Canada has stole the show in 2021 for tornado footage! That first one may be some of the best footage ever captured of a tornado in Ontario.

I just got some showers late this morning from pop up weak storms which worked or screwed over my atmosphere. Just very cloudy here still while twisters rip through the usual tornado-prone areas of SON: People on twitter rightfully dunking on EC for NOT WARNING a tornado in progress, there is a report that the warning came out 2 minutes after reports of damage

Holy Flameo:

We have a rare pair of tornadic, long-track supercells underway in the Barrie Corridor of ON that have produced damage in the southern suburbs of Barrie (its always Barrie): I haven't seen hook echos like that in Ontario probably since I've been following weather!! Two of them! Also the first debris ball I've seen on radar here . And I love this, someone caught TWN with their pants down with another tech difficulty as the met's mic was active unknowingly and she muttered "holy shit" and "holy f***" multiple times!! : Didn't they get enough practice from June 26 when we had the Amberley and Chatsworth tornadoes?

Its the middle of a July afternoon and I'm sitting at 16ºC (60F) with dark overcast. One day is a blip, 3 days in a row of this can piss off. My high was 20C today but every few hours its being lowered so now 18C.

Las Vegas 7-Day Forecast: Its currently 109F for today. My dream forecast is another's nightmare. Phoenix isn't this hot. Those overnight lows are astounding. The long duration paired with last week's heatwave is going to be deadly.

Another putrid downgrade to the forum appearance and UI, a week after dealing with the raydar.ca shutdown too. Who the hell designs this shit? The most amazing part is that thread meta-data panel on the right (that you can't get rid of) that leaves 30% of your screen space (on PC) wasted for the whole page! This is worse than the last downgrade which really made me cheerful. The AmWx logo at the top doesn't show more than a faint thunderbolt outline but when I switch on dark mode it appears. That ranking icon overlay on everyone's avatar should be removed since its useless (just rookie rank 2/14 for Hoosier!?). The badges are a wonderful gift, I can't wait to see what I get for my 1000th post which is this one . EDIT: I just got the posting machine one again for 1000 posts . Very creative. I love how above each badge it says rare including "first post" one .

Here is an article co-authored by Dr.Jeff Masters (haven't come across his name for a while) and Bob Henson (credits include Christopher Burt, Maximiliano Herrera) putting some more insane stats on just what took place: https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/07/western-canada-burns-and-deaths-mount-after-worlds-most-extreme-heat-wave-in-modern-history/ Here are some snippets: "The lighting from the dry thunderstorms (pyrocumulonimbus) that developed was so intense that over 700,000 intracloud and cloud-to-ground lightning flashes were recorded in 15 hours, including more than 100,000 cloud-to-ground strikes. That’s about 5% of the total number of lightning flashes Canada typically sees in an entire year." "According to Herrera, more all-time heat records have been broken by at least 5°C (9°F) in the past week’s heat wave than in the previous 84-plus years of world weather recordkeeping, going back to July 1936. It’s worth noting that the record North American heat of the 1930s, including 1936, was largely connected to the Dust Bowl, in which the effects of a multiyear drought were amplified by over-plowed, denuded soil across the Great Plains – an example of human-induced climate change itself, albeit temporary." At the end they cite a 240 Hr GFS frame for more heat coming to the west, a no-no. YCC is a AGW Climate Change site.