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Santa Claus

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Everything posted by Santa Claus

  1. Santa Claus
    Can you take a picture of something to show me? I swear I am looking at GOES EAST shots thinking this thing looks decent and your post is throwing me for a loop.
  2. Santa Claus
    The outflow looks nice and sharp especially to the northeast. It's a small storm with a nice compact CDO, there's some very robust convection happening. It looks pretty organized right now. I think this is a decent Category 1 tomorrow morning and might surprise us in its strengthening, a low-end Cat 2 is not out of the question if the shear can stay easy on it. These small storms can be so unpredictable. I wonder about the rainfall totals up here this week. Even with baroclinic effects broadening the storm, this thing really is small. I don't expect big rainfall totals too far from the center, that's for sure. Quietly, this is becoming a massive tropical season. August, September, could be a real adventure for the United States.
  3. Santa Claus
    i'd like to congratulate everyone experiencing their 20th heat advisory or excessive heat warning of the summer, you can trade in your punchcard for a free large soup at any participating Panera Bread.
  4. Santa Claus
    you're a f'n treasure @wdrag
  5. Santa Claus
    Don't write it too far off as shear forecasts were a bit more generous this weekend into early next week and again, there's hurricane soup in front of it. But man it looks bad. Might just get picked up as a big warm front by Monday.
  6. Santa Claus
    The robust southwest convection might favor center relocation there and a more likely FL hit. Central dense overcast seems to be developing. Or not, I don't know anything, I just post what I feel until someone tells me why I'm wrong. I'm trying though.
  7. Santa Claus
    Looking pretty spicy now... oooh. Nice concentrated center to the southwest. Undeniable organization and strengthening happening.
  8. Santa Claus
    I'm thinking a path kinda like Matthew until it gets picked up in the current between the trough and ridge. SC landfall. Looking a little better organized. Tonight could get really interesting with all the bathwater it's sitting on. If it can stay organized enough to exclude all the dry low-level air in front of it, anyway.
  9. Santa Claus
    I think it'll hug near the coast and stay offshore. We've seen that kind of behavior before. The convection fires up over the ocean, so the center gets pulled to it, at least that's my interpretation of what happens.
  10. Santa Claus
    The shear has relaxed a bit in front of it and the forecasts look favorable for muted upper-level shear where it's likely to be this weekend. Shear further relaxes Monday.
  11. Santa Claus
    Pretty trashy-looking system tbh.
  12. Santa Claus
    It's a carwash outside.
  13. Santa Claus
    Absolutely pissing rain. Total FF stuff. The entire sky is condensing on my head.
  14. Santa Claus
    CTC each and every second. I hate to look at my phone unless I miss something. WOW!
  15. Santa Claus
    I forgot about the thread here. Lots of lightning looking westward, getting ready for the 2 AM wakeup thunder.
  16. Santa Claus
    Lightning pouring out of the cells encroaching from Pennsylvania, flashes every few seconds here in Piscataway. Heavy echoes on radar. Hunterdon County getting a crush job and I have to think I'm getting a late night taste.
  17. Santa Claus
    Just tons of time left for any number of solutions. I haven't seen a lot of talk about potential future interaction with the trough over the eastern U.S. A few models did have some kind of capture and a crash into the Carolinas.
  18. Santa Claus
    As an Oriole diehard I am both amused and incredibly triggered.
  19. Santa Claus
    I think rainfall will be relatively muted for a TC. The models have the storm screaming up the coast. Just not enough time for bigger rains.
  20. Santa Claus
    Looking pretty solid right now. One thing about the potential storm surge into LI is that many of these models think this thing is going to be absolutely flying up the coast. From what I've read the higher the forward speed, the higher the storm surge height, but the less overall land mass that gets flooded.
  21. Santa Claus
    What kind of interaction might it have with that deep trough? It might just get captured.
  22. Santa Claus
    There's a lot of sheer over the east coast and coastal waters. Something to watch
  23. Santa Claus
    The relative consistency of the Euro is becoming concerning. EDIT: to clarify, the track. I hate myself for asking this but there's no chance of blocking and a Sandy event is there? We have had some unusual flow patterns this summer, cutoff and retrograding lows.
  24. Santa Claus
    That seems to imply an exceedingly small storm, would think with baroclinic forcing at this latitude the wind field would be broader and the region of max gusts wouldn't have such a tight gradient.
  25. Santa Claus
    93/71 with a breeze doesn't feel all that bad. can't tell if i am adjusting to our new climate norms or my brain is just hopeful that heat stroke will bring it sweet release from the endless horrorshow that is 2020. the important thing is i got fresh cold peaches and plums in the fridge so there's still something to look forward to.
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