Will - Rutgers

Oh absolutely, and you might be thinking of Jose last year, which was around the benchmark's latitude and then just went nowhere. It'll always depend on the setup. And some of the modelling indicates scenarios where high pressure really traps this thing. I'm just a hard sell on it until we get much closer. The storm is going to change in size and intensity, probably very significantly, in a way that will change how it interacts with any ridging. The strength and positioning of said ridging isn't set in stone, and then you'll have more discrete low pressure features that could give this a lane to escape, which are even harder to model. Just way too early.

Don't forget, the GFS had major issues last year with predicting storm strengths. Really abysmal. Also I'm guessing part of the reason it's slow to weaken is baroclinic enhancement trading off against increasing shear and decreasing SSTs.

It'll depend on the strength of the ridge and any kickers that might come along but all else being equal I think there's a fairly significant model bias to slowing storms down too much as they get caught in the westerlies. Seems like extratropical and tropical systems tend to clear a good deal faster than they get modelled. How many times on this board do you hear that such-and-such model shows snow starting on Friday night and it's still snowing at hour 72, and then that doesn't happen, lol.

Southwesterly shear definitely starting to make its presence felt. If the storms entrains any of that dry air it might have significant effects. The mid and low levels show some erosion of the CDO.

There's been some substantial mid-level dry air on the western periphery of the storm, and talk of shear from the NHC, but Florence evidently doesn't concern herself with stuff like physics.

I don't know if mods want us to use a dedicated thread for Florence but I figured the weather is currently boring enough that I'll just post here. Was surprised no one commented on its unexpected intensification.

GFS is complete garbage for tropical cyclone intensities. Modelled sub-900 storms regularly last year.

I'll take your position. All due respect to Mount Holly but it wouldn't be out-of-character for them to bust low over the next few days. Really nice weather today honestly. I'm looking forward to fall but it was nice and sunny and hot. In the winter it can get too cold to breathe. I'll take the over.

I'll say the line for LGA's high today is 98, any bets?

PDS wording in the Severe Thunderstorm Warning associated with the incoming derecho. Good luck to any resident AmWx cheeseheads, and stay safe. Severe Thunderstorm Warning WIC017-033-035-091-280015- /O.NEW.KMPX.SV.W.0140.180827T2320Z-180828T0015Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 620 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2018 The National Weather Service in The Twin Cities has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northeastern Pepin County in west central Wisconsin... Dunn County in west central Wisconsin... Chippewa County in west central Wisconsin... Eau Claire County in west central Wisconsin... * Until 715 PM CDT. * At 619 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from Glenwood City to near Menomonie to Rattlesnake Ridge, moving northeast at 80 mph. These are very dangerous storms. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely. * Severe thunderstorms will be near... Menomonie, Boyceville and Wheeler around 625 PM CDT. Colfax around 630 PM CDT. Ridgeland around 635 PM CDT. Bloomer and New Auburn around 640 PM CDT. Cornell around 655 PM CDT. Augusta around 700 PM CDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. These storms are producing widespread wind damage. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows!

At least one area-wide 12"+ event since it's the 2010's and that's just what we do now I guess. At least 4 events that hit parts of the area for 6"+. Mid-loaded winter starting around mid-January, cold and dry March. Warm December.

Heavy, gust-driven rain in Piscataway. Tiny cell hitting hard. No thunder.

Rain has had a hard time making it into NJ today but it looks like it is well on its way and will hit us in the overnight hours. Feels weird to be expecting rain when it isn't 85 and humid.

From Mount Holly's AFD: Oh please oh please oh please.

Good lord. Looks like we're finally exiting this multi-week pattern of endless pop-up severe storms. Tuesday night's rain seems like a more orderly frontal passage event rather than spontaneous atmospheric combustion from 100 degree dews and sea breeze fronts.

Some of the mushrooms on the lawns are large and thick enough to be used as bludgeons.

Flash Flood Watch. Flash Flood WatchDEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ001-007>010-012>020-026-027-PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106-190015-/O.NEW.KPHI.FF.A.0014.180818T1800Z-180819T0400Z//00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/New Castle-Cecil-Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Coastal Ocean-Southeastern Burlington-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-Including the cities of Wilmington, Elkton, Newton, Washington, Morristown, Flemington, Somerville, New Brunswick, Freehold, Sandy Hook, Trenton, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Mount Holly, Jackson, Long Beach Island, Wharton State Forest, Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Media, Philadelphia, Honey Brook, Oxford, West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown, Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville, and Doylestown316 AM EDT Sat Aug 18 2018...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOONTHROUGH THIS EVENING...The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a* Flash Flood Watch for portions of northern Delaware, northeast Maryland, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania, including the following areas, in northern Delaware, New Castle. In northeast Maryland, Cecil. In New Jersey, Camden, Coastal Ocean, Eastern Monmouth, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Morris, Northwestern Burlington, Ocean, Salem, Somerset, Southeastern Burlington, Sussex, Warren, and Western Monmouth. In Pennsylvania, Berks, Carbon, Delaware, Eastern Chester, Eastern Montgomery, Lehigh, Lower Bucks, Monroe, Northampton, Philadelphia, Upper Bucks, Western Chester, and Western Montgomery. * From 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening* Several rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms will affect the area through this evening. The heaviest rainfall is expectedlater this afternoon into this evening as a cold front moves across the area. Those areas that received heavy rainfall on Friday will be the most susceptible to flash flooding.* Heavy rainfall within a short period of time can lead to rapidly rising water and flash flooding, particularly in urban areas, and along small creeks and streams. The ground remains fairly saturated due to recent heavy rains over the past severalweeks. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A Flash Flood Watch means that there is the potential for flashflooding which can be life-threatening. Heavy rain is expected tooccur over a short period of time. Rapidly rising flood watersmay quickly inundate roadways and areas of poor drainage. Streamsand creeks could leave their banks, flooding nearby properties.Please monitor the forecast, especially if you live in a locationthat is prone to flooding. Be prepared to take action if a flash flood warning is issued for your area.&&

88/73/96 at work in New Brunswick. Feels almost dystopic outside. The punishing humidity, smoky, hazy, partly cloudy "blue" sky gives one the impression he lives in a Franz Kafka novel. Even when it is sunny, it is not sunny. I'm actually pretty stunned there's no Air Quality Alert today. How is that possible?

78/68 feels downright pleasant. Great sleeping weather last night too.

Looks like the upcoming heat has a limited shelf life and we will return to roughly normal temps starting this weekend with relatively muted dews.

I see it. I should qualify "bust," it was relative to some of the model outputs and not the NWS forecasting.

Yanks is right about the radar not telling the full story. Light/moderate showering under zero returns.

NNJ? I know Monmouth did.

Radar drying up rapidly (with consideration given to robust low-level moisture). Nonetheless I think the sillier model totals in NNJ will bust well low of that barring any redevelopment.

PA can keep that much rain. I wonder what local seasonal/annual records may be broken for them this year.