DDweatherman

The reality is just because a run doesn't do exactly what it should (these are computer simulations), doesn't mean one way or another its always going to be better/worse. The Euro just happened to make a turnaround later in its run because for the first time it brought our northern piece of energy on the backside more vertically oriented north to south. This made for a cleaner phase and tilted the axis of our trough more favorably. There was no question around h66-72 it was broader. NAM on the other hand, like you said looked favorable early on and the evolution was traditional for what you'd expect with a clean phase and a sharp trough.

Its not a guess after watching the model runs come out for the last 15 years. Euro looked worse at 66, and better by 84, its that simple. I've seen WAY WAY worse model analysis these past few storms by several folks.

h85 low closed on OBX at 84 is just a thing of beauty though I must say

I hope we have an opportunity to see an h5 progression like that when the NAM can run its whole run, because if we do, it would be a crusher

NAM h5 @ 84 is classic for us, finally have a run that shows an h5 that COULD get it done. Wish it was a varsity model, but then again...positive trends

Correct, if the NAM went out to 96, we would have had Jaws music

Okay, well now that you've seen the whole run, was I right?

It might have damn well been a hit. Before that, the UL snows are nice too.. (Wheres the DGEX when you need it)

I'd say its not a tad or slightly better, but rather MUCH or a lot better, miles ahead of 6z and a lot better than 12z. Nice tilt coming at 78

NAM is looking pretty solid thus far

For what we want to get out of the NAM, its a good step which is pretty obvious by like hr 36-42

No question about that. Looks kinda like the RGEM so far.

@stormtracker Interesting to see how the 18z NAM plays out, looks better than the last 2 runs so far.

You guys know how great it would be if in 4 days we're getting destroyed across the sub and celebrating one of our biggest comeback, most unlikely wins ever?

Definitely agree thats more likely than a closed of h5, possibly vertically stacked low that slows to almost a halt in this pattern. But, the Euro needs to show its old colors and be right once right? Good time for it to lead the way in a big outcome

Until happy hour gives you 20”

You’d expect if it was going to vertically stack and close off, the low would be closer to the coast than the sfc reflections on the euro

30-50 with that QPF field, certainly avoided the 2 steps back thing… now can we avoid that on the GFS unlike yesterdays 18z unmitigated disaster

2/2006

Eps looks solid with the low tracks, some improvement vs 6z in my opinion

EPS is a nice improvement, bet there are some huge hits to come on the individuals

Woulda been a more accurate statement if he said 24+

Cmon France

Officially dead

Feb 2006 JMA coup redux?