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DDweatherman

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  1. DDweatherman
    Does anyone have the total QPF map from the nam?
  2. DDweatherman
    I think somewhere in between for now sounds the “most” accurate. Nam definitely was closer to keeping the sleet lines SE especially towards the back half of the storm. If it didn’t shoot the ML warm nose northward so quickly this run, the totals would have looked similar to the FV or at the very least a lot closer.
  3. DDweatherman
    I agree, it’s a product of the shifts that @psuhoffman shared. Again; there were positives for sure.
  4. DDweatherman
    I’m taking the positives out of it, because I agree it was a fair bit better in a lot of ways. This anomalous airmass is extremely impressive and I know warm air to tongues can easily screw the mid levels, but we don’t have a screaming jet sending in a firehouse here like we have sometimes to just send it all to shit.
  5. DDweatherman
    A lot of analysis for the 12z Nam at 48 hrs…cycle through the last 6 runs at h5 and surface and tell me you’d make a forecast off it?
  6. DDweatherman
    I could even see back and forth precip types N/W of 95 depending on intensity for a time.
  7. DDweatherman
    6z suite looked pretty good mostly, euro looks colder as the precip moves in then just warms slightly quicker. Noise mostly, but obviously has meso implications depending on area. The thump seems to lock in 6-8 for most even down to the SE.
  8. DDweatherman
    I think I like 10-15” for your backyard, and I SHOULD be far enough n/w for 12-18” (wishful thinking?)
  9. DDweatherman
    It’s also location based
  10. DDweatherman
    What does the ole FV3 show? Saw a comment but mobile, can’t pull it up at the moment.
  11. DDweatherman
    The NAM’s run to run differences are amusing to say the least. I’m not that worried after seeing most of what the 18z suite had to offer us.
  12. DDweatherman
    Definitely an all snow sounding there.
  13. DDweatherman
    Oh it’s easily snow for DC.
  14. DDweatherman
    My oldest is exactly 6 and ALSO hasn’t seen the same. Good looking map, we’re excited for this one. New sled is on the way. 18z suite looked a bit better.
  15. DDweatherman
    Still not him, not yet.
  16. DDweatherman
    I feel like there are some good places in the Gettysburg area that would be a fun spot for this. What kind of place are you looking for? If I don't answer in a minute, I will in first thing in the AM. It's been a long day and I might doze off here in a sec.
  17. DDweatherman
    This has some excitement factor IMBY as well, the kids have never seen more than a 6" storm yet.
  18. DDweatherman
    the beginning of the end perhaps? We've staved off the rug pull for quite some time. All the model readers talked about how it was better...til it sucked.
  19. DDweatherman
    Especially advection precip, not usually an issue.
  20. DDweatherman
    It's the trade off for dealing with increasing qpf, 1.2-1.5" QPF is a prolific storm.
  21. DDweatherman
    Maps coming out now, I'll defer to our friends that like to post them, its a FOLKS.
  22. DDweatherman
    I'm 90% sure Euro is FOLKS for quite a few in the sub based on the precip maps.
  23. DDweatherman
    It's a drubbing for most. I'll lock that in right now.
  24. DDweatherman
    You guys living and dying by one model run at 96 hours is impressive. Even if the Euro looks like the CMC, that doesn't mean thats what's happening. I didn't know the outcome is determined by a couple runs 4 days out. Sure there are some amped runs in there as a trend, but let's look at the synoptics and also we've seen a lot of systems de-amp in the mid range.
  25. DDweatherman
    That's what I was saying. A banana 1040mb+ HP dome being driven into by a low thats not even sub 1000mb? Unlikely.
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