DDweatherman

Sadly that isn’t going to do much to help Sarasota. If the IKE is 60-70 here, this will bring a record breaking surge to whoever is SE of the center.

damn, raw ADT’s up to 7.7 and 896mb. Sat imagery is top notch at the moment.

It's hard to definitively say there will be any "hard" hook, and even if so, I think we're about 12 hours from really knowing the LF point within 25 miles. I do think I'm weighing my forecast on the COC being pulled north of progs by the asymmetry of the storm nearing landfall.

Agreed on this, and the fact that if this does hit right on the edge of the southside TB or Sarasota, out in front the flow will still throw a substantial amount of water up into TB itself.

The right hook has happened a few times. I am concerned if this bombs big time in the morning through afternoon, it may get a bit more poleward again and go back over Pinellas. My personal cone was Clearwater to Sarasota.

Early on September 10, the eyewall became less defined, the convection near the eye became eroded, and northeasterly outflow became slightly restricted.[10] As a result, Isabel weakened slightly to a Category 3 hurricane. The hurricane turned more to the west due to the influence of the Bermuda-Azores High.[1] Later on September 10, Isabel restrengthened to a Category 4 hurricane after convection deepened near the increasingly organizing eyewall.[11] The hurricane continued to intensify, and Isabel reached its peak intensity of 165 mph (266 km/h) and a minimum central pressure of 915 mbar (hPa; 27.02 inHg) on September 11, a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale.[1] Due to an eyewall replacement cycle, Isabel weakened slightly, though it retained Category 5 status for 24 hours.[12] As Isabel underwent another eyewall replacement cycle, outflow degraded in appearance and convection around the eye weakened,[13] and early on September 13, Isabel weakened to a strong Category 4 hurricane. A weakness in the ridge to its north allowed the hurricane to turn to the west-northwest.[1] After completing the replacement cycle, the hurricane's large 40 miles (64 km) wide eye became better defined,[14] and late on September 13, Isabel re-attained Category 5 status.[1] During this time, Isabel attained annular characteristics, becoming highly symmetrical in shape and sporting a wide eye.[1] Hurricane Isabel also displayed a "pinwheel" eye, a rare feature that is found in some annular tropical cyclones.[15] A NOAA Hurricane Hunter Reconnaissance Aircraft flying into the hurricane launched a dropsonde which measured an instantaneous wind speed of 233 mph (375 km/h), the strongest instantaneous wind speed recorded in an Atlantic hurricane.[16] Cloud tops warmed again shortly thereafter,[17] and Isabel weakened to a strong Category 4 hurricane early on September 14. Later that day, it re-organized, and for the third time, Isabel attained Category 5 status while located 400 miles (640 km) north of San Juan, Puerto Rico.[1]

Maybe Isabel? Maria?

Will be interesting to see if the HAFS runs tonight re bomb this post EWRC like the earlier today runs showed, including the 884mb frame. easy to discount that number for actual intensity, but they weren’t far off on the insane strength in this cycle.

We can’t speculate too much, but given satellite we didn’t miss peak by much. Maybe low-mid 890’s and some possibility of 190-195mph winds given that pressure and how compact the core is.

Let’s not get this twisted. The water depending on how far north the center gets and angle of approach is still pushing a lot of water NE into the bay. The difference is once the center crosses shore, if it’s south of the bay, it’ll be a blowout tide. Not before a pretty substantial surge, but one that wouldn’t continue to pile the water

It would probably be 897-898/185mph

There’s reason to believe it was even lower at peak given the recon left before the “best” satellite images. we’re blessed here to have them in at the peak times.

Absolutely. Insane imagery

The last 12-24 hours before LF intensity is going to have some realistically large impact wind wise, but surge wise shouldn’t change much if a cat 4 exists 100 miles off the coast.

Katrina weakened a lot and still brought a catastrophic surge in, but it was cat 3 at LF. How much surge energy/IKE would carry into LF if this goes from a 5 to a 1. If the HAFS is right and its sub 900 24 hours from LF, I have to imagine it doesn’t really matter what LF intensity is.

The other models which had this before, including the GFS, abated some of that dry air quite a bit on todays 12z.

Way stronger than other guidance at peak, while the other models have it 940-950mb at LF (cat 3-ish we’d assume).

Insane run. But the other models have started to thwart the weakening and dry air/shear combo closer into LF, so it’s hard to say. That will be more of a short term nowcast I’d say. Even at that 71mb weakening it sits at the same 955mb the GFS is at on the shore of the bay.

Contamination aside, not every day you see almost 200mph SFMR.

You’re probably right. Sad to realize even if it hit at 955 that alone would be enough for a really dire situation in the bay.

No words for that rate of intensification.

This has a scary feel down here. I’ll be getting back towards home tomorrow. Had thoughts of “chasing” this down here, but that’s a tough one.

The spaghetti models have had a center on Sarasota for a while now. The GFS, HAFS, HWRF, and I believe HMON all go over Tampa or just north.

My hunch, we’ve seen stronger solutions further north. ensembles are lower res and don’t deepen the storm as much, hence their further south progs.

The cmc in general is not a good model. It was 48 hours slower than the other major models yesterday. Though this has slowed, it’s not by that much.