DDweatherman

I’m mobile, can you post an image? Want to share with family; down in Sarasota atm.

Elaborate in what you’re saying here. If a 940 is 100 miles offshore and weakens but hits Clearwater, tampas taking 8-10 ft of surge.

I had the chance to tour some of the damage on Treasure Island and St. Pete beach…it’s much worse than I was expecting or most people would considering where Helene hit. So many houses lost everything, along with bars, restaurants, businesses, etc. Two main points from that for this one, 1. the debris is everywhere, piled feet upon feet high. Consider that stuff a floating weapon if this pushed similar surge in those towns. It would be a disaster. 2. Some people don’t understand what the outcome of a GFS like run would be for this area…it would be one of our most damaging hurricanes. Tampa has evaded direct surge impacts and a hit for most of recorded history. Others know if one came in over the bay or just north it would be the “one”. Not trying to be a hypester, but statistically and studies wise, weather folks have said this area in some ways can be worse than NOLA.

Scary that the GFS did very well with Helene and is already seeming to like a certain track/intensity near the Tampa/st Pete/Sarasota metro.

That’s route 40, not I-40.

Called earlier today that Valdosta would get in the NE eyewall and that looks to be tracking at the moment. Could certainly see gusts over 100 there and 80+ up into E GA.

I expect nhc to announce landfall in the next 15 minutes. Edge of eyewall coming ashore now.

Judging by how intense this is coming in, not sure how much of Perry will be left on the other side of this one.. eastern parts of Tallahassee are also going to see some 100-120+ gusts it appears if they’re clipped by that N/NW eyewall.

Velocities up to 170mph in the NNE part of the eye wall courtesy of TLH radar…

@WxWatcher007hang in there. This one is going to be a wild ride. Maybe you can get us some footage like the 2004 Charley gas station video.

I would call what happened last night a pseudo ERC. The eye started as nascent than made its way through the stages and in doing so there was the reorganization of the core & CDO. Not the true ERC’s we see with more developed, substantial canes.

I’m interested to see if there are any frictional effects to tighten the convection and give this a bit more symmetry on its way in. NE eyewall is 58 miles from shore at the moment.

Agreed. People saying attenuation are denying the fact that we can see directly into the southern eyewall from TBW radar and the northern with TLH. It’s likely closed but it’s robbed of the convection which are those VHT’s and mesovorts in the N/NE.

Same with TBW even on the edge of the beam, it’s fierce no doubt.

The bumpiness of the eye on radar now and lightning is still indicating those rotating mesovortices. Looking at velocities we definitely have some impressive #’s on the radar out of TLH.

Insane chase there, Laura did not play games. Who knew they had hurricanes in Iowa?

It’ll all come down to the vector once it crosses land. With how intense it’s getting, I’d lean NNE vs N or any tick W of due N. VLD might be ground zero.

I’m thinking the areas down near bayshore Blvd and of course Gulfport and the beaches are going to have one of their more notable surge events. naples had their biggest surge event in Ian, and the center passed just a bit closer by them and to the NW.

The eye keeps tightening on radar as it comes in, that RFQ is going to be insane coupled with the upper levels to help mix down big gusts + a quick forward speed. What did you gust to in Laura? I’d expect you get a few 120-130mph gusts there in Perry.

Stay safe down there, need you for the winter tracking! She’s a monster now coming in, you’ll get all you bargained for it you’re holding steady in Perry.

100%, question will be where does it go after LF which is our biggest question. We pretty much know VLD will be near the eastern eyewall, but will see straighten up and move more due N or hold that NNE heading. huge implications for the 75 corridor depending on that outcome.

Note to add that once this gets into that part of Georgia and VLD northward, we start getting into some pretty densely populated areas (Warner Robbins, Macon, Albany, Athens)

Agree with this. Meanwhile someone from VLD-MCN is going to gust 100+ I’m starting to think.

This eastern eye wall is passing 80 miles from Tampa Bay. Talk about dodging a completely catastrophic event. The close calls can only go on for so long.

Been saying it all day but the Valdosta corridor to Albany, GA and up I 75 to Macon could be in for a wild ride with this forward speed and how intense Helene is going to be at LF. Could be their benchmark event relatively far inland.