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DDweatherman

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Everything posted by DDweatherman

  1. DDweatherman
    I think the crew up here is all good with the AIFS, UK, Icon, and even the 3k and gfs are easy 4-6” events
  2. DDweatherman
    He was texting me about it, but I don’t think he posted. It’s great for everyone if you ask me
  3. DDweatherman
    The icon has really been juicing this up and it can be a drier model at times. The NW crew gets mashed but qpf almost doubled on 95. Could be the double maxima being shown
  4. DDweatherman
    Makes sense to just selectively post pieces of “guidance”
  5. DDweatherman
    I said I wish it went to 36 though as for the 12k,
  6. DDweatherman
    Really wish the 3k ran to like 36 hrs and the 12k would get decomm’d asap.
  7. DDweatherman
    There’s a good chance I won’t use the Hrrr as guidance 12 hours from this storm.
  8. DDweatherman
    I also like the UK swath for precip, not insanely amped like the Canadian suite. I’d blend UK, GFS, and AIFS at the moment I believe.
  9. DDweatherman
    I mean realistically I’d trade .6” QPF with cold thermals and maximize ratios over 1” QPF but 20 miles from the big drop off and 10:1’s
  10. DDweatherman
    Precip to begin in about 42 hours on some models
  11. DDweatherman
    Latest
  12. DDweatherman
    Yeah it has a 993 over the chessie, no other model has a low in that spot, but also they don’t have the low that intense. ICON was about 2mb stronger w/the SLP vs 12z
  13. DDweatherman
    I’m with PSU. I want to see what the gfs shows here in a few but it moved a lot wetter and obviously a good bit NW overnight. The blend is probably a fall line and N/W theme
  14. DDweatherman
    Yeah I’d take the icon or 12z gfs output. Let’s see what 18z shows.
  15. DDweatherman
    Icon is a beaut for us LSV and E folks
  16. DDweatherman
    Hey muhfuckas, get that football talk out of my thread. 29 black discussions only. go ravens
  17. DDweatherman
    I'm good with 3-5" baseline if you compromise the good and bad solutions for MBY. I'm good with that, and I'll be happier than a fly on shit if we hit the boom scenarios.
  18. DDweatherman
    An hour 48 model war with GEFS N/W and EPS a bit to the S/E, ops in between which aren't that far from each other in ground truth (evolution wise). QPF is still a big discrepancy.
  19. DDweatherman
    After the first couple hours when the low passes east of our longitude, I'd bet ratios would improve. That being said, 850's aren't necessarily bad for ratios better than 10:1.
  20. DDweatherman
    I'm not actually buying that shield. I think it'll be a decently wide QPF shield.
  21. DDweatherman
    AI is about .5 QPF for our neck of the woods. Good news is if the baseline is 3-5 with boom potential I’d lock that in
  22. DDweatherman
    For us, I like the direction the euro seems to be heading. I think the qpf shield will be broader and more GFS like. That should make a lot of folks happy.
  23. DDweatherman
    Eh I don’t 100% agree, juicier in max zone, s/w a bit better. Just a tighter shield. I don’t hate the run, think the swath will be wider
  24. DDweatherman
    Compromise camp still looks great to me
  25. DDweatherman
    Well here we are page 29 and needing 29 black from the euro
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