DDweatherman
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Everything posted by DDweatherman
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Might as well root for a bit more amped to put the snow line just south of bob chill’s yard so we get into the heaviest meat at gametime haha
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I gotta see the maps. I thought h5 looked pretty good that run but qpf seemed kinda paltry on Randy’s maps for the phasing being “clean” coming east.
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The euro has been insistent on the “part 2” picking up the slack on its runs. Later hours allows the low to creep north and the n/s element keeps the snow guns on for quite a while.
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It helped a ton that it snowed for long duration and the phasing got DC/Balt into the goods there after h129. Wide precip field. Through 129 there wasn’t that great of totals Qpf wise.
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Definitely not folks, seems ok. Maybe I’m wrong but a step back.
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It’s kinda crazy too because it was a historic top “couple” DEC storms of all time for our region and 20” totals in plenty of spots, and it happened relatively easy. There wasn’t a ton of sweat in that tracking either minus the little north creep at the end to really get everyone.
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And 26 years to the date of the 1/25/00 miracle.
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If the euro does at 12z what it was cooking at 6z when the run ended, it’ll look similar to those UK maps.
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Well the UK met looks strong again, MECS+ for a majority of the sub.
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I am mobile, but was gonna say, that doesn’t look like an appreciable step back. Qpf max in similar spot, definitely not like the op.
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Very icon-esque.
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People don't realize south is a correlation to timing somewhat in this case. Slower can be souther. But if you roll forward the frames, it gets to a similar spot.
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I think what we're seeing with CMC is similar to Euro. A little more hold in the energy provides the boom solutions, whereas too much of a good thing in that regard can render a GFS outcome. No one knows what will actually happen here, but the GFS has been a pretty bad model for quite some time.
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All we're asking for today is holds people, that and this god forsaken s/w to come out of the effin hole out there.
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Canadian definitely slower to push the energy out a bit, but looks like UKMET and Euro out to 96. Lots of energy helping to pull it eastward into the phase.
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Laughable these differences. That said, crazy to look back at h5 from 18z yesterday which was a lot worse than this even. Slower evolution from the other models, namely euro may be producing the gfs being in purgatory this run.
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All I am watching on today's run is making sure this energy ejects out properly and in some timely manner. After that, the recipe for a big hit isn't that difficult to make.
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Agreed 100% with this. More of a classic progression and honestly a lot more analogs like it that we can compare to. It's what produces the 2 part WAA over to CBB/deform PD2 and others have had. You love that primary into NE TN/W NC and transferring with this kind of airmass.
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I like the look of the ICON at h5 on that h84 frame above... let's see where it goes. Nice to have a less closed off s/w there.
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This is banter, they can say whatever they want. Just like what Webb was doing yesterday, save us the trouble. We're looking at synoptics and quite literally reporting on what the trends are.
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They say good things come to those who wait, slightly slower evolution but the ceiling is very high in that scenario. Would be very PD2 ish in duration and potentially even magnitude.
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I think mainly a factor of speed. End result might have been more robust than 0z in totals. Looks awesome up at h5
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I would pay to see extra frames of that 6z euro fun. Woulda been a HECS for a good bit of this sub given that h5 at the end and what was already OTG thru 144
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It’s true, you can have needles and plates at 15 degrees. That said, there looks to be a deep dgz and great forcing so ratios should actually be great in the money zone there.
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I see a F word worthy frame coming very shortly.
