SouthCoastMA
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Everything posted by SouthCoastMA
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GFS looks a tad colder thru 24h..hard to believe. Let's see what happens afterwards Edit: The primary is stronger and slightly more NW at 36h, so I'm assuming that will offset the colder start -
The RGEM looks a hair worse to me on the front end. 18z starting off on wrong foot
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convection usually amps things up so it's a valid concern.
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edibles, ipa's, and crack. helluva combo - the NAM and UKIE must be fun at parties
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I don't trust it to locate the primary correctly, so punted.
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Ensembles have a signal for something around 3/11 - slightly stronger vs 0z/6z. The members that do show a storm are whoppers. It's not super strong signal yet, but it's there.
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vs Simsbury, not sure that's a big difference. unless you were planning on being north. pray for ukie/gfs end result
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just an earlier transfer reflected on surface map. primary still around Cleveland
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And it doesn't mean shit here, so I'm not sure why I care. I'll take another tic or 2 south so I can get a couple on the front end, which would mean 6"+ potentially in your neck of the woods.
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The GFS: pretty consistent, some wobbling around Cleveland.
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The Euro past two days: Chicago to Cleveland, slow trek.
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Told you not to fold them. When you go all in you need to ride it to the end, either going down in a blaze of glory, or in flames. No capitulation.
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It has the primary in Detroit which means game over south of NH border. i'm not buying it
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The child was hit by an SUV that was being driven by a female student of South Portland High School, the release said. The driver of the SUV is being charged with passing a stopped school bus with flashing lights, a class E offense, authorities said, adding that the driver said she didn't see the boy, nor the flashing school bus stop sign. ffs. maybe stop texting and pay fkn attention
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GEFS/GEPS/EPS all have a handful of ensemble members showing sub 970/960mb lows near the benchmark between 3/10-12, so hopefully that signal strengthens in the next few days. Then the next period to watch seems to be in the 3/15-3/17 timeframe. Pretty quiet over the next 8 though (aside from the Saturday storm).
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always a small chance the euro makes a couple more tics colder, while the GFS basically holds serve. not likely, but who the hell knows. CNE/NNE seems pretty locked in at this point but some on the southern edge could still be in play
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Might as well keep going at this point, never give up until the ship is sunk!
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My view is that the GFS has been decent in the mid range figuring out the general storm track, sometimes better/faster than the other models .but always seems to falter on the details within day 3. Not just this storm, but in the past couple years.
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So I'm looking forward but don't see anything trackable on the OP runs. Unless we are just talking about potential..to which I say..it's March, time is running out.
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It's pretty amazing to me that models have clustered consistently around Cleveland for the primary. Other than a few wobbles, we couldn't buy any major moves south with that. 10 years ago we probably would've seen a lot more spread 3-4 days out
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tick north but pretty close to 12z. pike gets hammered with ccb, maybe a bit south of that.
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drink down das boot, so smooth
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Not worried yet. I have a lot less room for error though, so I need the globals to tick S again at 12z
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NAM aside, what good are anomalies when determing rain/snow. A lot of that red area supports snow
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That NAM run personified
