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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Looks like once again, NE flow from a wedge should tamp down any flood threat that Beta would otherwise bring. Also fast moving. Lots of parallels to Sally really, just a weaker system. Edit: It does look like there are some dynamics at play. Frontogenisis with a transfer of the low to the coast. Probably up towards the VA border. Has some serious winter storm vibes. DC special if this were January
  2. olafminesaw
    September should be the start of soup season and by that I certainly do not mean atmospheric soup. The good news? We're only a week away from the average latest 90 degree day
  3. olafminesaw
    Lel
  4. olafminesaw
    Levi talked about this, how it's expected to pulse as the convection fights the shear and then dies off
  5. olafminesaw
    Ruh roh
  6. olafminesaw
    It's remarkable how near average the temps have remained the past couple months in Greensboro
  7. olafminesaw
    Meanwhile the Wpac, which has hit peak climo, had been completely quiet. It must be near record low at the moment. Does anyone know if the two basins often have an inverse correlation?
  8. olafminesaw
    15/8/4
  9. olafminesaw
    As of now it looks like Thusday morning is when the worst of it will hit for the Piedmont, at least in terms of flooding concerns
  10. olafminesaw
    Wonky
  11. olafminesaw
    Looking from the outside in at this possibly historic storm, I've never seen such a series of weenie runs from the NAM, in terms of low probability outcomes. Of course the NAM is probably wrong, but noon Saturday:
  12. olafminesaw
    It would seem a line of rain/snow showers could make it over the mountains tommorow midday/afternoon, and perhaps a second wave in the evening. Pretty good agreement from the hires models, but probably too warm for anything that does come through to stick. But I know how stingy the mountains are, so probably only light precip, if that.
  13. olafminesaw
    And the 12z NAM confirms this
  14. olafminesaw
    Yeah, gotta wait for the coastal to take over to get decent rates unfortunately, but at that point it may be pulling away
  15. olafminesaw
    Radar starting to blossom nicely in central TN
  16. olafminesaw
    I would wait to see what kind of trend there is on the EPS before bemoaning surpression. Remember, we're still 6 days out.
  17. olafminesaw
    There's a range of temps at which dendrites grow (which create very high ratio snows). Ideally you want the area of greatest lift, to fall within this zone to get dendrites. On tropical tidbits, the orange bars on the left tell you how much lift there is at that level.
  18. olafminesaw
    I don't have any expectations so it's kinda fun. It's like my team's down 2 touchdowns with a minute left. Might as well see what happens
  19. olafminesaw
    The great lakes low kills it, but the trough is a little deeper This time around, so there's that
  20. olafminesaw
    Finally, a mythical unicorn storm like the unicorn storms of old. I would say probably just due to the tendency of the Euro to spin up deep lows out of nowhere. The trough is digging like crazy, the only way this thing works:
  21. olafminesaw
    It got suppressed, which isn't such a bad thing, but not an especially cold airmass.
  22. olafminesaw
    Whats that old reliable wives tail again? 10 days from thunder in the winter means more thunder? Seems about right.
  23. olafminesaw
    No more drought is the "new normal".Yee
  24. olafminesaw
    The 6z models backed off a bit on rain totals. 2-4" has been a good forecast for a day or two now and still seems reasonable, although I wouldn't be surprised to see 6"+ somewhere
  25. olafminesaw
    7qLDBye.mp4
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