mimillman

6z euro ensemble also East

The 6z euro took a 75 mile jog east and is less amped.

No soup for you

If by stronger you mean weaker, yes. Agree with the bump east though.

I’ve picked out an Airbnb in Dubuque just in case…

GEFS west as well…a GFS coup would be funny

DSM hoisting early watches

Thank you. Some people have forgotten climo clearly. These systems also tend to get drier as we know as we approach go time. There are exceptions of course, but high likelihood we shave QPF from here.

Euro is almost on top of the 12z run. You could argue it’s a touch further west earlier on. Most notable difference is slightly warmer near the SLP, less QPF near the SLP, and an expansion of WPF northwest. You want to see an end to westward shifts on the GFS with tomorrow’s suite and the Euro to hold.

I tend to agree but the trend is undeniable

Loving the ensemble look.

Clearly going to be a monster for someone and would say most of this forum is still in play with the exception of the OV crew (sorry)

Issued at 221 PM CST Sun Dec 18 2022 Tuesday through Sunday... All eyes in the long term period are on the late week cyclone and intrusion of bitterly cold air along with dangerous wind chills late this week into the weekend. Confidence continues to steadily increase that a potentially crippling blizzard could impact portions of the region later this week, the timing of which couldn`t be worse for holiday travel. If, and how severely, our forecast area (CWA) will be impacted depend on the exact track of the cyclone and to some extent the magnitude and timing of the forecast rapid deepening. Medium range guidance has been advertising a powerful cyclone spinning up over the Great Lakes or northeast U.S. for days now, with a pretty sizable spread in where the storm will develop/track. There was a cluster of guidance favoring a Great Lakes target region, which would increase chances for major impacts in our CWA, with a second cluster favoring the New England resulting in disruptive, but far less extreme winter weather locally. Trend in ensemble guidance over the past 48 hours has been decidedly away from a New England cyclone and toward cyclogenesis farther west over the Great Lakes with recent runs of the GFS/GEFS making the significant shift west. While track guidance has shown (pretty typical) variability, the theme of rapid, and potentially explosive, deepening of the cyclone has been a fairly consistent theme in guidance for days now. The expected intensity of the cyclone combined with the very strong arctic high (>1040mb) over the northern and central Plains leads to high confidence in a noteworthy high wind event with this system. The eventual track of the cyclone and timing of rapid/explosive deepening will determine where the very high impact winter weather/potential blizzard will set up. Given recent model and ensemble trends, our CWA lies very solidly within the potential threat region. The incipient wave that is forecast to spawn this system is still located north of Alaska across the Beaufort Sea, so it still has a lot of distance to cover with plenty of time for shifts in guidance. It isn`t uncommon for models to make leftward adjustments to the track of powerful cyclones like this, so it is important not to get locked in on a forecast track yet. At this distance, it is also advisable not to focus on individual operational runs of models, as operational runs will likely exhibit variability in the strength and especially track over the next couple or days. This run to run variability in operational runs is often not an actual "trend" but rather "noise" in the range of possibilities at this distance. Rather than focusing on noise level changes in operational runs, focusing on trends in ensemble data the next couple of days should prove more meaningful as we look to hone in on location and magnitude of the threat. In addition to producing blizzard conditions, the high winds will likely cause lakeshore flooding (which shore depends on track of cyclone) and dangerous wind chills well below zero. Currently, most guidance strongly supports advisory level wind chills (-20 to -30F) Friday into at least the first half of the Christmas weekend, with some potential for even a period of warning level (colder than -30F) wind chills as actual air temperatures plummet below zero. All indications are that our high temp Christmas Day will be the coldest since the mid 90s and possibly one of the top five coldest on record. Any power outages resulting from the strong winds greatly increase potential danger of the cold spell. We strongly urge everyone to pay close attention to later forecasts, particularly if you have holiday travel planned. - Izzi

Just wish wasn’t 100 hours away, but it’s a strong signal for somewhere in the region nonetheless.

Cautiously optimistic but cognizant there’s still 72 hours to go before this is better defined.

Pretty big difference between neighborhoods and downtown on my way to work this AM. Downtown is rain/snow mix, Wicker Park was all snow beginning to accumulate on side roads.

LOT radar is filling in not dissimilar to what the euro has been advertising

Trip to the UP in 10 days looking golden

Seems fair

Real deal

Can confirm…death band

Yea I see that…

I’m at ORD. Flight boards in 10. Wish me luck

It was ok around here