I gotta say I love the RAP and HRRR banter.
I am with Alek…feel like the northern edge of over running events typically overperform. Riding that to my 4-8” call, the main event is not ours.
15z SREF plumes right at 12” for ORD. There’s a big cluster 15-20” that should be thrown out. If you get rid of that, your mean is closer to 6” which seems right.
Happy to pick up what the CMC is putting down with lake enhancement signal likely means 12”+ possible in Cook. Ultimately think it’s overdone but happy to look at it.
GFS is overcorrecting South. Euro likely will hold at 12z
Pretty dramatic shift on the 12z NAM as it was far too northwest to begin with. I see a compromise between the CMC and the Euro as most likely outcome for this event.