mimillman
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Everything posted by mimillman
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NAM and RGEM will be on the northern edge of guidance until show time, and then will disappoint
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Pretty dramatic shift on the 12z NAM as it was far too northwest to begin with. I see a compromise between the CMC and the Euro as most likely outcome for this event.
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Eh, 5” for ORD is still doable, although it’ll be unimpressive over 48 hours
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A cluster at 5-10” and a cluster at 15-20”. The 5-10” cluster seems reasonable.
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Looks like 10-20” incoming for you
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Can start with the SREF. Mean still at 12” for ORD but had stared coming down. Expect this trend to continue throughout the next 24 hours.
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I’ll go with 4-8” across the metro. Extreme southern Cook may pull off 12”
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You’ll be high i think
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The 6z GFS is what I was concerned about last night when the 00z GFS stopped the north trend
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00z GEFS similar look to the operational. Once again, awesome if verifies, but concerned we didn’t see more of a bump north. We likely trend to a consensus from here which favors north central Indiana and NW Ohio.
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If we are, that’s not great in my opinion, because the GFS would likely jog south from here
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These are some historic totals for northern Indians and across central Illinois. Widespread 30”+. Respectable amounts even into the metro and across central Michigan. My concern is that the north trend didn’t continue
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The tiniest tick southeast with the main event. Energy looks to dig a bit less at 500mb, think that’s what caused it?
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Changes at least at the surface are pretty minor
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No 395 page thread like New England?
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I wonder when we get Natester back
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What I mean is, don’t overreact to a model run it’s long range, notorious for over amped solutions
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For those of you on the southern edge, I’d hardly fret at the 84 hour NAM
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Baby steps doo doo, doo doo doo doo
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Need the euro onboard. As mentioned before, I don’t have confidence in the CMC to handle southern stream systems well, but the euro certainly does
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Need the euro. C’mon y’a northwest trend
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This ensemble signal rivals east coast big dogs
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This GEFS is going to be wild
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GEFS will be sweet too
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It should also be noted for those on the northwest side of things that a lot of QPF advertised in the overrunning event will be lost to poor boundary layer temps and poor rates.
