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mimillman

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Everything posted by mimillman

  1. Annoying comment, but it appears to be an orientation change (actually)
  2. My wife still wants to know who Alek is and why I blame him for things
  3. Sometimes I marvel at how terrible a model the NAM is
  4. Hold on let me pull up my Twitter account. What do we think 33” compacts to?
  5. Can’t believe no one mentioned the ICON shifting northwest. We have the dream team on our side. May be time to revamp the DGEX
  6. I gotta say I love the RAP and HRRR banter. I am with Alek…feel like the northern edge of over running events typically overperform. Riding that to my 4-8” call, the main event is not ours.
  7. I just blame Alek for everything and it seems to work most of the time
  8. 15z SREF plumes right at 12” for ORD. There’s a big cluster 15-20” that should be thrown out. If you get rid of that, your mean is closer to 6” which seems right.
  9. Over running becoming the main event for Chicago, but it’s decent
  10. Happy to pick up what the CMC is putting down with lake enhancement signal likely means 12”+ possible in Cook. Ultimately think it’s overdone but happy to look at it. GFS is overcorrecting South. Euro likely will hold at 12z
  11. If I were to guess, the GFS is overcorrecting South and we will see bumps north for the main event beginning tomorrow.
  12. NAM and RGEM will be on the northern edge of guidance until show time, and then will disappoint
  13. Pretty dramatic shift on the 12z NAM as it was far too northwest to begin with. I see a compromise between the CMC and the Euro as most likely outcome for this event.
  14. Eh, 5” for ORD is still doable, although it’ll be unimpressive over 48 hours
  15. A cluster at 5-10” and a cluster at 15-20”. The 5-10” cluster seems reasonable.
  16. Can start with the SREF. Mean still at 12” for ORD but had stared coming down. Expect this trend to continue throughout the next 24 hours.
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