Some models moved towards more confluence today. Goalposts will be much more defined by 12z solutions tomorrow. Better sampling of all the players involved.
I'm not going to get too worked up in either direction because as @weatherwizsaid, need to see where that best fronto sets up and might not know that for another day or so.
SOP looks good for the moment. I'm conservatively going 4-6" here. My area up through S VT/NH gets saved by a pretty expansive precipitation shield moving into the confluence. Southern streamer is bringing decent moisture but don't want to see any trends weaker with that because for my area sheared = screwed.
I feel like a lot of people are thinking about the spike before they have actually gotten into the end zone. Hopefully everyone from NYC to CNE gets plowable snows but I think the band of 8”+ will be narrow.
Yeah, I’m just feeling cautious on this one. Let’s see how modeling goes once we get into some better sampling tomorrow. I’m just worried about S stream coming in weaker and getting suppressed.
are you thinking we start to see slightly more amped north trends showing up?
Better sampling tomorrow but can’t deny the S trend today. Confluence combined with a weaker S stream would close the shades on this one but I’l give it through Friday night to shift better.
Plan for dry through mid-month and take any frozen precipitation as an unexpected gift. Hostile pattern the next 10 days, if we score it's a big bonus.