michaelmantis

Don’t post that cr*p here... ;-) Debbie downer type map right there for NE IL. Have a feeling people are going to wake up many places surprised (both with more and less snow than expected). Lots of variables here.

One of the things that may make tomorrow AM miserable is any type of wind. It will compound the clearing of roads. Makes an “advisory level” snow a hugely impacting event. The timing also just could not be worse.

“Warning” is 6 inches in 6 hours or 8 inches in 12 hours right? Wind impacts = Blizzard headlines correct? Believe we are supposed to get some wind with this but not enough to meet criteria? I’m right on the LOT 4-6/6-8 line and the timing of this is going to be awful for AM commute and school.

We talking shoveling a driveway with a spoon south? ;-)

Timing seems awful for commute/school start. Only saving grace is it will be overnight while many cars off road but with heavy rates and blowing not sure that will make any difference.

That works for me... Probaby not enough around here to cancel school Monday. Wednesday (read the latest LOT AFD) May be another story with *temps* at -20 in the morning...

With things as is, models have trended N and is that northward model movement pretty much as far as it will go? Just curious in the probabilities of this thing jumping 100 miles north (for example). My non meteorologist inclination is that in this environment (cold air in place, snow pack in IL and IA, etc) that there are better chances of this thing riding the temp gradient south than pushing more north where it is already cold? Model above is a nice hit for pretty much all of WI and MI. Damn that cutoff in N IL...

Pack her up as “pack her up 18 inches is gone” or pack her up “it’s a dusting”? im good with a 3-6 “normal snow” around here :-)

After lurking and occasionally posting on these threads for close to 7 years now, I admire the reality check you bring to all of us armchair forecasters who just model watch (saying that with myself included) and freak out about every shift! ;-)

NWS Chicago still not moving wagons North just yet but keeping an eye on things... "Some of the American 12z operational model runs have tried to shift the track of the clipper a bit farther north, namely across far southern WI on Monday. This certainly adds some uncertainty to the forecast of snow amounts to the area, as such a track could keep the heaviest snow into Southern WI. However, the ensembles do not necessarily support such a slow and northward track of this low. For example the 12Z GEFS mean favors a track farther south and a slightly faster than the 12z operational run of the GFS. This farther south solution also continues to be favored by the 12z ECMWF and its ensemble. Overall, this is a very complex pattern in which this clipper will be evolving in, and as such the individual model runs are likely to continue to waver a bit in the track of the system into the weekend. While the farther north track seen in the GFS and NAM do add some uncertainty, we have opted to not change forecast snow amounts much at this time. As such, at this time, we continue to favor the heaviest snow along and north of I-80. However, this will have to be fined tuned in the coming days."

NWS Chicago just now on Twitter... I'll take these odds... "Significant snow is possible beginning on Sunday in the late aftn to early evening hours. Right now, areas north of I-88 have a greater than 50% chance of seeing at least 6 inches of snow. Stay tuned to the forecast for the latest updates. amounts across the area."

Normally being in the bullseye this far off is a sure bet for disappointment but there doesn’t seem like there really is a huge spread/range for this thing to move. A storm like this followed by such cold would be a huge 3 day weather event wherever it does occur. How wide is the significant snow band?

And you get the prize for the first "directional shift" post in this thread (that will likely grow to the hundreds of posts very shortly...) ;-)

NWS Chicago AFD highlighted "uncertainties are a bit lower then average" which is wording they don't use often... It is going to be an interesting next 10 days... If N IL does get more snow and the cold is as bad as it seems (with the wind chills), I could see a few days off school for kids next week...

Looks like another nice few bands in NW IL (south of Rockford) heading into NE IL. Snow ended here for a bit but the roads are a mess. Decent returns just entering western Kane county. Temps also look to have taken a dive around 3-4 AM, Dropped from 32/33 here to the mid 20's. The deep freeze begins...

Looking at traffic cams are always interesting in these storms. Shows the difference a dozen or so miles makes! measured 3.5 (average of 3 spots) with another 1/2 inch in the last hour it took me to shovel this hard slush. People better clear this stuff ASAP or they are going to have solid ice for over a week!

Looks like we got about 3 inches, not sure how much rain filtered in but doesn’t look like a lot. Snowing decently now. Roads look a mess.

Had a few minutes of the huge flakes ChiStorm posted about and from the radar I look to be about 5 miles north of the rain/snow line. Off to bed, excited to see what I’ll wake up to.

In the hour I cooked dinner, we now have 1/2 inch of snow on top of what was a sheet of ice. Shoveling whatever "this" becomes in the morning is going to be a nightmare. Regardless of what comes, people will definitely need to clear driveways before the temps tumble tomorrow late morning.

I live in Elgin, work near Libertyville. I'm most likely going to wake up to a dusting of snow here and at my office could be a big snow... Think I'm working from home tomorrow... :-)

Yep, our general area seems to be a mixed bag. The first round of icing here was pretty back on rural roads and school got called early (worried about delays with buses). Need at least a fresh layer of snow to end it all off, the landscape is looking pretty ragged with dirty snow and slush! So far the NWS Chicago call of a Dixon to Elgin to Waukegan line seems sensible giving where temps are. My backyard weather station went from 19 degrees to 27 (currently) in just a few hours.

Where is the big cutoff line looking at for snow? Looks like mid-way between McHenry county through Dekalb and west if I recall some of the NWS images. Just had school announced closing early here, worried about icing on rural roads. (Damn, going to miss out on a decent snow by 40 miles as the crow flies it looks like!)

Well that started fast... Light freezing mist where I’m at (Elgin IL) and driveway and roads have a glaze already. Rain hits the windshield and by time the wipers move it to the side it’s frozen. Air temp 19 per car thermometer.

25, heck 10 miles will make a huge difference in parts of extreme NE IL. I am 15 miles west of you, if I had to guess now both of us end up with an icy sloppy mess for most of this followed by 2 inches of snow and the tail end. Basically icing on the cake to give a fluffy snow layer to the cement that will form. Anyway, we should know by mid afternoon areas that are trending cooler/warmer than expected. This is one of those days where comparing model positions makes all the difference to the Nowcast:

South enough where Northern tier of IL counties have more of an icing/frozen threat or is this approaching greater chance of snow?