michaelmantis

I feel for you guys making these decisions. From a forecasting perspective (and academically for lack of a better word) knowing that someone within a 50-75 mile range is going to get a big snow means you hit the mark as a forecasting office but that doesn’t help the PR side of things for the person who was told they were going to get a “big” storm and ends up with what they perceive as nothing. Doesn’t help that there are now so many models that people have access to that start bringing attention (or hyping more likely) an “event” before all the data is there to make a reasonable forecast. Still need the forecast to be like Back to the Future 2 where Doc Brown says “too bad the postal service isn’t nearly as efficient as the weather service” as he counts down the end of a rainstorm to the second. :-)

Second that... I'm not going to lose sleep tonight waiting for the next models overnight... With all of this uncertainty I don't see how LOT makes major changes until the 3 PM updates tomorrow...

I feel you... For us this seems like the best shot of a biggie thus far this year... 24 hours will see where that wobble leads to the good snow...

The cutoffs in N IL in the forecasts really make messaging storms like this tricky. A 25 mile change impacts a huge population area. I will say this is the best the "Probabilistic Snowfall Forecast" graphic has looked for me all winter, especially 36ish hours from the event... Fingers crossed... https://www.weather.gov/lot/winter

It will all melt a day later in this pattern... Have a winter camp out with my daughter next weekend and would *LOVE* a good snow. Last year there was just like the map above... 12 inches of snow in Southern Wisconsin on Thursday and then it POURED rain most of the weekend... It was a sloppy muddy mess...

As a weather forecaster that has to be a depressing thing to say huh? :-) Top 5 event would be, maybe, possibly, a 3 hour burst of heavy snow rates?!?! Thanks for all the informative posts. Love the banter here (Go Alex!) but also nice to have someone posting with some insider/expert info!

Damn, that cut off is sharp. 9.1 to 0.9 in 20 miles (as the crow flies). Someone along the lake is going to get an extra dollop I bet.

Sweet setup for those that get lucky. Now if that purple moved about 30 miles NW I’d be happy but with this winter I would just be happy to get a fresh coat of white.

Really trying to figure out if this is good sledding weather... High risk of soaked boots!

I was just going to ask the question where the best location is going to be. Now that the crappy rain is gone, this thing looks great on radar if you are north of I-88. Precip is also starting to fill in south along I-47. Aurora to Downtown Chicago has been the southernmost extent of the snow for a while.

Exactly! I wish they did more updates and "nowcasts" during events like this but know they have an actual job to do! Today's was a great AFD. ...near Warning criteria snowfall before all is said and done, somewhere in the I-90 corridor vicinity across parts of Kane, McHenry, Lake, and far northwest Cook County.

Nice cutoff in IL through I-88. My goodness. I'm riding the edge here a few miles south of I-90.

I’m sure of that right about now. Back to some drizzle here but less than 3 miles down the road it’s pouring snow.

Damn that changed fast... Cotton balls falling now... Temp took another 1.5 degree drop...

Dropped 1.5 degrees in an hour (35 now). The backyard is a slushy muddy mess.

Pouring rain by me... 36 as measured by backyard weather station... Such good precipitation gone to waste!!! Change quick damnit! ;-)

Literally in the center of the bulls eye of the 9.1/9.3 on that map... Lock it in!!! Just need some favorable winds off the lake and a few bands setting up nicely for at least 1/2 of that to pan out... Regardless, it has looked pretty out there much of the last 36 hours... Finally like winter!!!

+1 Here! ;-) My area seems to get those unexpected lake plumes (even 25ish miles from the lake) and quirky precip bumps that have created a couple of nice storms. Edit 2:20 PM - Just had a few minutes of some quarter-sized monster flakes fall. Crazy. Quick covering of the now melted and plowed street...

1.5 inches here as of an hour ago and been lightly snowing for the last hour. Side street snow covered.

I remember that storm and almost was dead center of the bullseye in Kane County. I was working from home that day and the snow just kept coming.

Just had about 10 minutes of what was a legit rain or freezing rain. Was pretty loud against the windows. Edit: Started up again about 15 minutes later. Going to be an icy mess when the temps drop tomorrow.

First pingers of the night. Measured 3.5 inches in a few places (not sure how accurate). Expecting to wake up to a nice crust/frosting of ice on top of the snow. On a happy note, I finally got snow for sledding with my daughter. Now it may just get too windy and cold! ;-)

This isn't dumping on the NWS, they were in a bad situation with last weeks storm with all the data showing it should have turned out differently. Even reading their AFD and public statements posted there are a lot of mentions of "things are not like last week" and "this is different" (not exact words but close). If it turns out that is a big impact storm that won't help things. The overall weather pattern is just crazy. We're almost approaching 1 year from -25 temps in the Chicago area that it just seems that there is so much variability that models struggle (since they make assumptions in many cases based on past events and what "is likely" to occur). Lots more 10% probability outcomes seem to be occurring (i.e. 3 "500 year floods" in 10 years, etc etc etc)

Can someone help me figure this forecast out??? Rain before 3 AM with a low of 24? Or is this just NWS point-and-click forecasting lack of specifics??? Never did get my 3 inches of snow to go sledding with my daughter. Damn well better happen this weekend!!! ;-) https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=179&y=80&site=lot&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=178&map_y=80 Thursday Night A slight chance of snow after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Friday Snow before 1pm, then rain and snow between 1pm and 3pm, then rain after 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 31. Friday Night Rain before 3am, then rain and snow likely between 3am and 5am, then snow likely after 5am. Cloudy, with a low around 24.

Best snow of this whole “storm”... Actual flakes of some decent size... Ground finally white...