michaelmantis

This thread will either turn into pictures of 20 foot waves on Lake Michigan or people’s brown backyards.

Any issues with the freezing of all this water tomorrow? Haven't seen headlines on that (or I just missed them).

First bit of pouring rain here... Crazy... The whole idea of 1-2 inches of rain, then 3-6 inches of snow, then it all freezing just amazes me...

I'm looking at the stationary front placement right now over N IL and it looks to go from Waukegan straight to Peoria (it essentially crosses right over me in Elgin, IL). Temp 37 now. Knife's edge... But assuming temps will stay the same or even warm a bit as the first round come in...

This storm (coming together over Kansas) is looking mighty pretty on radar. Wish there was more blue than green but my goodness I think *any* of us would appreciate this storm any other time of year if it wasn't snowstorm season!!! ;-)

I'm wondering about the freezing aspects once the precip dies down. Looks like Sunday will be sunny and upper 20's in the Chicago area so that may help with melting but for most places in the Midwest Saturday from around 3 PM through Sunday morning just seems awful. You either are getting cold rain, sleet, or snow followed by all that slop potentially freezing as temps drop to the teens overnight Saturday. Makes me come back to thoughts I always have about the overly broad nature of the Winter Warning classifications. I'd argue that this storm is a bigger threat to life/travel than a solid 12 inch snowstorm with temps at 20. But the "headlines" of not a lot of snow just seem to make it not as critical of an event.

And there you have it... LOT just made some changes...

I said all I wanted from this storm was 2-3 inches. Of what, I don't care as long as it is frozen. There is going to be some area within a 25-50 miles from the snow that is not expecting the ice and it is not going to be good.

I'm still sticking with my wish (and a prayer) for 2-3 inches just go to sledding with my daughter. Regardless of the precip type, looks like a huddle in the house for 36 hour scenario...

Damn, we're good... ;-)

Ask and ye shall receive...

These two maps tell the whole story for me. Either has me in the 25-28 temp range with the GFS or hugging 32 degrees with the NAM. (Northern Kane County in IL).

I'm in between Dekalb and Cary so right on the razors edge! I'll start getting more interested in this later today.

Love me some Skilling analysis...

This is purely a "marketing" or "public relations" question, not a criticism of the NWS by any means. Does publishing an image like the one below (from NWS Chicago a few minutes ago) provide clarity to the general public? Those of us here are following models, each track shift, freezing lines, and listening to the voices from our voodoo dolls that whisper the weather future, etc. But does the average person get the intended message out of the image below? Also, what is the key for the two different colors? I get the dark blue is the main risk area, but what is that? 50% chance? This seems to me like some type of NWS model output that is so simplified that is loses meaning. Once again, mean absolutely no disrespect. Just curious.

Noticed a new Meteorologist (or new to me) on NBC 5 in Chicago during the 11 am newscast did a good job today of saying "anything was possible" but good chance of some type of significant precip in the Chicago area this weekend. Waiting for the media hype machine to pick up on this tonight. I just want 3 inches of snow to go sledding with my daughter. That is it. Simple ask of the weather gods.

(Probably not all that accurate) measurement of 2 inches in last 90 minutes. There was a huge burst of snow for 15 minutes that just ripped and got the roads/sidewalks covered. Looking at the deck we have at least 4 inches but it is compressing very quickly after accumulating...

We are never happy are we ;-) Starting to get slushy on roads here and if this keeps up there definitely will be road impacts. Can only imagine if this keeps up for most of the day. Just set up a timelapse camera as this storm will be one to remember!

These have to be the fattest snowflakes of the entire season... Just absolutely ripping right now...

Sounds like someone throwing BB's at the window. Does look like the snow is going to stay around and north of the IL/WI state line. So close to a decent accumulation. Wonder how conditions are going to be in the morning, I can't see how school buses will be able to get around at 6 AM in some of the rural roads of Kane County.

Damn right... Just shoved another 1.5 inches or so and some nice flakes out there now... Had to get the end of the driveway shoveled for the 3rd time. (City of Elgin plows amazingly but I didn't want that to freeze up tonight with the temps crashing!!!)

It's like grains of fine sand falling out here. I'm throwing in the towel and calling it a night. If I wake up to 3 inches in the morning I'll be surprised. The timing and blowing around is going to make travel horrendous in the AM so I don't fault my daughter's school being canceled.

Wind slightly picking up a bit (ELGIN IL) a first very fine flakes started a few minutes ago...

I am sure there are different schools of thought on this, but is there a point of diminishing returns with the increasing number of models out there? Not sure what that number is (or could also see the view of more data never hurts). Going back to someone’s post from a few hours ago, my total layman’s view is that “forecasting” risks becoming just “averaging the models” vs. intuition, climatology, and training.

Ever think of a side career as a counselor/therapist? :-) Forecasts like this have to be hard for your office. People go to bed with one message and wake up with “reality” (either way it’s hard to be right on the nose...) Thanks for your posting, love the actual expert views and insight into thinking...