michaelmantis

I really do like the NWS "Probabilistic Forecast" charts they started publishing which show a "Low", "Expected", and "High" range and are updated every few hours with new model runs. The options seem to set expectations well based on an over/under performance of model data at any snapshot in time. Based on the maps at 9 AM on 12/20, my area can be expected to get 3 inches (low), 6 (expected), or 10 (high). The LOT forecast discussion (which I wish more of the TV mets would refer to!) basically says something I posted last night that it doesn't matter if it is 3 inches or 10 inches, 50 MPH winds are going to cause huge issues. https://www.weather.gov/lot/winter

So for my family who is in total panic about Christmas travel being a nightmare, (and looking to me as the family weather nerd) how much does this mean impact wise in N IL?

Without the wind potential my assumption is the NWS offices would hit this less hard and would have waited. The whole general thought (my words not Issi's) that "3 inches ve 9 inches doesn't matter with 55 mile per hour winds" really seems why they are sending the messages they are. So now my expectations should be anywhere from 2-12 inches of snow with wind for 36 hours?!?! ;-)

I'm usually here for the Midwest winter storms, but heading down to Miami Thursday so funny that I'm tracking a tropical storm that actually will impact me! Just saw that Trop Storm warnings up for Miami, that eastward movement had me worried a few days ago. I'll be down there from Thursday through Sunday and wondering if this thing is going to slow down more. Was hoping for somewhat of a nice day on Saturday.

Damn, there are times these AFD's are just awesome. I share them with friends/family and they just don't get them. This one was almost as good as Ricky's.

I just want a few inches to go sledding this weekend. A campout with my daughter with half melted piles of snow that have turned to ice doesn't sound like much fun.

Perfect "frosting" to cover up the nasty from the plows. Perfectly white outside now!

And it looks like the event is going to be over for me! Now time to shovel! Decent little event and the models actually handled the cut-off (in N IL anyway) very nicely it appears.

I'm in Elgin IL (Northern Kane around I-90) and *right* on the borderline of the snow line ending on radar (as of 12:20 PM) and the flakes are best of the event right now in my area. Looks like something may be trying to build up again around I-39 and I could squeeze an inch or two more out of this on the razors edge.

19.6 in to 1.8 in 30 miles!?!?! Come on slight NW shift (no wammies, no wammies...)

Snow is just drying up NE of I-39 and I-88. Someone in N IL is going to drive 10 miles Thursday and go from a dusting to 6 inches for sure. Now just where does that set up.

Bookmarking this post and time as the time where hope was lost or something unexpected "changes everything". HA!

We need to get together and Venmo you some cash to distract you for a bit, we'll let you know when something good gets posted ;-) Just enjoy the better view from where you are at.

So close yet so far. Amazing how the dew points factor into the cutoff.

Throwing in the towel (Elgin, IL). Good luck to those south and I'll enjoy living through the joy of others!

Anyone know what the NWS uses to compute their "probabilistic" snowfall forecasts? https://www.weather.gov/lot/winter Someone is going to get a surprise out of this storm in N IL, from Rockford to Valpo there is a *huge* cutoff! Enjoy whomever gets the thumping. This winter I consider 3 inches a decent event just to freshen things up. Anything else is bonus!

Friends in Seattle and Portland posting snow covered Boxing Day pictures is making me chuckle. I've thought for a while now that "winter" in N IL is going to be 2-3 weeks of very cold combined with a few storms during that time that all add up to a combined 12-18 inches over that few week period and that will be it. Now I just want to know what weeks those will be! :-) Hope all is going well, looking forward to the threads and chat once *something* looks like even a dusting of snow may hit that Great Lakes!!!

Looks like something is trying to pop up on radar on the IL/IA border around 12:45 AM. Not confident anything will last or move into N IL but it's still 80 degrees out at 1 AM so there has to be *something * to work with if things get started.

Sounds like someone is shooting sand at the house... Going from heavy sleet, to fluffy cotton balls, and back and forth.

I like the radar returns in Lake County IL starting to fill in. It's a dream for that Lake Band in NE IL to come in 40 miles but at least a little enhancement would be great!

Now if just the Snow Gods would have given us a heads up 2 months ago this was going to happen it would have saved a lot of complaining (and posts here) ;-) I'm out of the Lake Snow part of this but great to see the scope of this and hope people take this seriously on the roads.

Calling 4 inches with anything more being a pleasant surprise. The distance from the west border of Kane County to the lake is ~40 miles and from my house to where the yellow starts in NIL is only around 10 miles. The snowmaps SE (essentially all of Indiana) are a beauty as well.

Looks like returns are starting in the Peoria/Galesburg area and if I recall isn't the precip field supposed to start expand/filling in around the eastern 1/2 of N IL later today? Checked through some of the 3AM posts earlier in the thread and how is the current precip performing to the modeling? With this lake effect and sharp cutoff in NIL as you move west, a track change of a bit will have some big population impacts. I said it yesterday and I'll say it again, all the pink on the NWS Watch/Warning national map is a beauty... I want to frame it...

Looking forward to your posts today!!! ;-)

From where I'm at a bit out West (and a bit higher up in elevation than the O'Hare and downtown area) I can see the lake effect clouds clearly (while the sun shines here). Hope you guys in the city get the big daddy expected. I'll watch from the cheap seats out West and hope a favorable wind drops an inch or two of added fluff!