michaelmantis

Thanks for the summary. I was wondering where all the model reviews I've come to love to read were at with this system. Still liking my spot in the first two tiers of counties in N IL. I just have to chuckle that there was over a week pregame to the Christmas non-event with hundreds of posts and now just two pages of posts thus far on this event that looks to hit in 48 hours. Everyone jaded/burned waiting for summer? ;-) @A-L-E-Ktossing up the Wammy gives me hope this may be a real one for our area.

Now that is a nice temp drop from 30 degrees at 10 am to 5 degrees now (my backyard).

Can someone share the background again on why the NWS reduced the types of Winter "advisories" a few years back? (Getting rid of Winter Weather Advisories, etc). I'm out in an area along what is really the end of a populated area in N IL and we have an inch at most on the ground right now. However, drive 3 miles west of me to the open fields and it is not a place anyone should be driving or out right now. Forget about the "hype of a big storm" and "how could most of the models been so off" but really isn't the issue that the NWS doesn't have a way to effectively communicate the hazards of a winter storm? I get you don't want 100 types of advisories, but a clearly worded "we are only getting 2 inches of snow but driving will be impossible in some areas" type message would be better than a "Winter Storm Warning" where someone not as crazy as all of us (who have followed this thing for a week and every model run) looks outside and thinks "this isn't a storm" and puts themself at risk?

Transition from Pixie Dust to some mood flakes in Elgin IL. Just looked at the temp drop between where I'm at and about 50 miles west, no surprise some wind is coming our way...

I get the bad timing and why they NWS office hit the warnings a bit earlier than I think anyone here expected, just wonder what this map would look like, same storm, January 12th or something. If the winds do materialize, even where I'm at (2-4 forecasted) Thursday night will be no time to be on the road.

I really do like the NWS "Probabilistic Forecast" charts they started publishing which show a "Low", "Expected", and "High" range and are updated every few hours with new model runs. The options seem to set expectations well based on an over/under performance of model data at any snapshot in time. Based on the maps at 9 AM on 12/20, my area can be expected to get 3 inches (low), 6 (expected), or 10 (high). The LOT forecast discussion (which I wish more of the TV mets would refer to!) basically says something I posted last night that it doesn't matter if it is 3 inches or 10 inches, 50 MPH winds are going to cause huge issues. https://www.weather.gov/lot/winter

So for my family who is in total panic about Christmas travel being a nightmare, (and looking to me as the family weather nerd) how much does this mean impact wise in N IL?

Without the wind potential my assumption is the NWS offices would hit this less hard and would have waited. The whole general thought (my words not Issi's) that "3 inches ve 9 inches doesn't matter with 55 mile per hour winds" really seems why they are sending the messages they are. So now my expectations should be anywhere from 2-12 inches of snow with wind for 36 hours?!?! ;-)

I'm usually here for the Midwest winter storms, but heading down to Miami Thursday so funny that I'm tracking a tropical storm that actually will impact me! Just saw that Trop Storm warnings up for Miami, that eastward movement had me worried a few days ago. I'll be down there from Thursday through Sunday and wondering if this thing is going to slow down more. Was hoping for somewhat of a nice day on Saturday.

Damn, there are times these AFD's are just awesome. I share them with friends/family and they just don't get them. This one was almost as good as Ricky's.

I just want a few inches to go sledding this weekend. A campout with my daughter with half melted piles of snow that have turned to ice doesn't sound like much fun.

Perfect "frosting" to cover up the nasty from the plows. Perfectly white outside now!

And it looks like the event is going to be over for me! Now time to shovel! Decent little event and the models actually handled the cut-off (in N IL anyway) very nicely it appears.

I'm in Elgin IL (Northern Kane around I-90) and *right* on the borderline of the snow line ending on radar (as of 12:20 PM) and the flakes are best of the event right now in my area. Looks like something may be trying to build up again around I-39 and I could squeeze an inch or two more out of this on the razors edge.

19.6 in to 1.8 in 30 miles!?!?! Come on slight NW shift (no wammies, no wammies...)

Snow is just drying up NE of I-39 and I-88. Someone in N IL is going to drive 10 miles Thursday and go from a dusting to 6 inches for sure. Now just where does that set up.

Bookmarking this post and time as the time where hope was lost or something unexpected "changes everything". HA!

We need to get together and Venmo you some cash to distract you for a bit, we'll let you know when something good gets posted ;-) Just enjoy the better view from where you are at.

So close yet so far. Amazing how the dew points factor into the cutoff.

Throwing in the towel (Elgin, IL). Good luck to those south and I'll enjoy living through the joy of others!

Anyone know what the NWS uses to compute their "probabilistic" snowfall forecasts? https://www.weather.gov/lot/winter Someone is going to get a surprise out of this storm in N IL, from Rockford to Valpo there is a *huge* cutoff! Enjoy whomever gets the thumping. This winter I consider 3 inches a decent event just to freshen things up. Anything else is bonus!

Friends in Seattle and Portland posting snow covered Boxing Day pictures is making me chuckle. I've thought for a while now that "winter" in N IL is going to be 2-3 weeks of very cold combined with a few storms during that time that all add up to a combined 12-18 inches over that few week period and that will be it. Now I just want to know what weeks those will be! :-) Hope all is going well, looking forward to the threads and chat once *something* looks like even a dusting of snow may hit that Great Lakes!!!

Looks like something is trying to pop up on radar on the IL/IA border around 12:45 AM. Not confident anything will last or move into N IL but it's still 80 degrees out at 1 AM so there has to be *something * to work with if things get started.

Sounds like someone is shooting sand at the house... Going from heavy sleet, to fluffy cotton balls, and back and forth.

I like the radar returns in Lake County IL starting to fill in. It's a dream for that Lake Band in NE IL to come in 40 miles but at least a little enhancement would be great!