michaelmantis

The timing of this event in N IL looks to be horrendous for the evening rush hour. My bet is some location trends colder than expected and around mid-day tomorrow conditions go downhill fast somewhere and people get caught by surprise. Interesting to follow this thread the past few days. The whole temperature rise just seems amazing if it actually occurs.

Amazing to eventually see the snow maps out of this one. Someone 25 miles apart is going to get an ice storm and someone else is going to get 3-6 inches of snow. Basically you can forecast a county or two as a guide of potential conditions but a minor shift has a lot of impact. Add to that the timing (Tuesday PM rush hour) and I don't envy Ricky and crew now...

Is there some type of modeling or impact to forecasting when determining icing potential that takes into account temperatures day prior? For example, it's in the single digits today and overnight I would assume the icing risk rises even if the air temp is the same but if the temperatures were in the 20's the ground would be "warmer" and the icing would be less. Or is it less of a "modeling" and more of a Forecasters-intuition/expertise? Love your posts and thanks for some of the NWS insight you provide.

Looks like Winter Storm Warnings expanded north a few counties in Wisconsin (Madison area for example)...

How big of an impact? Timing or totals? Or both?

This is probably a better link which shows the three different probabilities... https://www.weather.gov/lot/winter#tab-2

Problem is I need to get to the Museum of Science and Industry ;-) Already have a hotel booked downtown in case I can't make it home Saturday AM. Wondering how long even the 5 mile drive north on Lake Shore Drive will take at 9 am.

Well Looks like I'm screwed all around... If I stay downtown Saturday (to not drive Saturday AM after the first round) I'll get hit with the Lake Effect (as I'm right in the Downtown area). Hmmmm. Thanks for posting.

Looking forward to the upcoming AFD. How does the timing look (Chicago Loop) based on the current modeling? Seems to me like Saturday AM is going to be the height of it with most snow coming overnight before the Lake Effect kicks in?

So is the right way to read this is the yellow is just lake enhancement in the first wave and any potential lake effect isn’t included? What a change from overnight. The enhancement goes pretty far out west.

I have 27 hours (midnight Thursday) to decide if I’m hunkering down in the Chicago Loop Saturday morning (and all day) or trying to drive home 50ish miles... Looking more and more likely I may be saying downtown. But now the lake effect Saturday night could make Sunday trouble. Sampling and next 24 hours will start turning some of this ensemble roulette into hopefully a more clear picture...

Thanks, it was a great read... Basically "high confidence" of events just need to nail down where. After the way this winter has gone, just knowing storms are in the offing is a good first step! :-) The storm next week seems interesting but won't all of that will be impacted on where the weekend snowfalls?

Sure this is a question with a lot of unknowns given the models, but for N IL does this look to be more of a matter of timing (i.e. starting later) or amounts? I get both are related, just trying to figure out how bad Saturday morning could potentially be in NE IL. Have to make a decision if I'm going to stay overnight or try to drive home in what seems to be like the middle of the storm Saturday morning. Appreciate any crystal ball reads given the latest models!

Excited to see all the Chicago people on the board and many from the old Accu forum... I’m keeping a close eye on this storm. Going to be downtown overnight Friday at the Museum of Science and Industry for a sleepover with my kid and if one of the many models verifies and hits N IL I’m going to wake up in the city with a ton of snow on the ground (with it still falling) and a 60 mile drive home. Can only wait to see if the track impacts the area but my question to the group is when/if the lake effect will kick in. Toying with the idea of spending Saturday in the city if this bad and not even attempting the 60 mile drive out west back home early Saturday morning.

Could be just the NWS radar view but I’m not liking this area of the radar one bit..

And that dry slot north of Peoria is going to make someone sad if it doesn’t fill in... I’m still waiting for the elusive Thundersnow. Had a few in the Groundhog Day storm, that was epic.

Just lost power for a few minutes (Elgin IL). Hope things don’t get worse with the coming winds...

I'm right on the edge of the pink and yellow in Kane county. Can hear some sleet against the window. Hopefully this is a short burst before it changes over to snow.

33 degrees with 31 dewpoint IMBY (have a few outdoor sensors set up) and the wind has really started to pick up. Someone is going to miss out on a few inches of snow by starting off as rain first. Nice problem to have for the first storm of the year huh? :-)

My goodness the radar returns in Central IL are looking good as they work their way up north... Got an inch or so on the ground so once it starts ripping it should be a good 6-9 hours at least!!!

(Hope this isn't too off topic...) I'm surprised there are not more school closings posted yet (http://www.emergencyclosingcenter.com/complete.html) in the Chicago area... Guess there still is time to make a call but with the later snow start, and blizzard conditions, I don't see how kids will be able to be picked up at 7 am, especially in rural areas (few miles west of where I am in Kane County).

Missed all you guys! Didn't expect to be back so early in the season! Ripping snowflakes now. Close to cotton ball size here in Elgin (5 miles south of I-90).