Yeah a surprise storm is virtually impossible. You're not gonna see 700 people get killed from a hurricane blowing in on an unassuming summer afternoon. The real surprise will be when we actually get a legit cat 2-3 landfall and not some rapidly disintegrating swirl with gusts to the sixties. Then all those people who have been conditioned to expect false alarms in New England will be unprepared and will suffer for it.
There's a Kelvin wave crossing the MDR in the next couple weeks, which should also encourage development. Should be an interesting period for tracking at any rate. Beats endless talk of dews and changing leaves at any rate.
Yeah, Dorian is super impressive, but a cat 3 barreling into NE at 40-50mph wins IMO. '38 dropped billions of board-feet of timber. This pic was from the Harvard forest, way up around Worcester.
July '89 Hamden tornado and Blizzard of '93 sealed my fate as a weenie. Feb '13 blizzard, 1717 Part II in Jan/Feb 2015, Sandy, October '11, Springfield-Brimfield tornado. Maybe throw in March '12 torch for good measure.
If this were January, you know a certain someone would be in here saying it was a certainty. Latent heat release pumping the heights, WAR flexing, +PNA straight to Alaska and so on