Hoth

Agreed. We're inflecting into the exponential growth phase. I feel bad for any small business owner/retailer over the next few months. Once cases become common, foot traffic is going to fall off a cliff.

This is a superb point. A lot of people will worry that they might be hit with a hefty pricetag for a test that is not necessarily accurate. I saw Mass lawmakers mandated that anyone can get tested without expense (kudos to them), but there are only four states doing this. And as you say, a lot of people presenting mild symptoms probably just assume they have a bad cold and just soldier on as usual. Here's what I'll say about this, it ain't the flu. The Chinese Communist Party values social stability above everything else, and their model for keeping stability has been economic growth at any cost, including blowing an unprecedented debt bubble over the last decade. The fact that they've virtually locked their country down and destroyed their economy suggests that what they're seeing and what they're reporting are two very different things.

Sorry Steve, don't mean to be a downer. But normalcy bias can be a major problem in a situation like this. Better to take this seriously than be complacent.

Fingers crossed it has seasonality like the flu, but we can't assume. Our government seems to be intentionally downplaying the risk, which is only going to make this more likely to explode out of control in the coming month or two.

Bear in mind that the case fatality rate may actually rise going forward if draconian containment measures are not taken. This virus is very transmittable, and viral shedding is nearly as high in asymptomatic infected people as in those who are visibly sick. People can be walking around infecting others for weeks without knowing they are sick themselves. Based on the data we have, somewhere between 13-20% of infected people will require hospitalization, usually in the second or third week, which will very quickly will overwhelm hospital capacity, especially considering hospitals are already near capacity from the flu. Worse, coronavirus cases that progress to the pneumonia stage often require weeks of oxygen, assisted ventilation and other intensive care. Some patients appear to develop fibrosis, so basically permanent lung damage. There simply isn't enough capacity for the number of people who will likely need this therapy in the coming months. This will lead to deaths in people of all ages; obviously the rate will be higher in the elderly (which is somewhere around 15% for those above 80) and people with existing health complications, diabetes, smokers, cancer etc. etc. (of which there are millions), but there have been plenty of cases of young, healthy people dying from multiple organ failure from cytokine storms. Basically overly aggressive immune response causes massive inflammation and floods the lungs with fluid. Same thing happened in the young in 1918. The other thing to consider regarding the case fatality rate is that dividing deaths by confirmed cases may not be the best metric. Deaths/recoveries may be a better method, as it captures cases where the disease has completely run its course. Based on data so far, that would put SARS-COVID19 around 6-8%, not too far out of line with SARS' 10%. Don't expect this to disappear from the headlines anytime soon. We likely have not seen an infectious disease threat of this magnitude in a century.

Bump.

Amazing how spring is asserting itself down here already. My yard is full of crocuses and snowdrops; my daffodils are already up and budding; I've noticed some forsythia blooming and several maples around Yale with red buds. If we get a warm month, it'll be an early leaf-out for sure. Bring it, say I.

My brother's in-laws live up in Tupper Lake. They had a two foot pack before this storm and got another two feet from the LE. Talk about utopia.

You're killing it dude. I'm still trying to get to double digits.

Reversion to the mean working in our favor when the bar is so low.

This year has been rough, but I think I've passed through the stages of grief. Acceptance feels good. Time to move on and get ready for spring. Get those mowers ready.

Well that is interesting. Thanks for digging that up, Steve. I can honestly say I've never noticed them prior to late March/early April. As I mentioned, our first sighting is our cue that it's time go out to Fishers and do our post-winter cleanup. Pick up fallen branches, see if mice have gotten into the house, see if storms left any sand on our beach etc.

Walking in Hamden this afternoon. Half dozen or so of them up in a maple. I've never seen them this early.

It's ova.

The red-wing blackbirds are back. I can't believe it. Never seen them here this early. Usually when they show in April it's our signal to open up the summer house.

The disparity in recollection is hilarious here. Kevin v. Ryan in his own mind: Kevin per Ray:

March '18 had that -PNA, -NAO combo if I recall rightly. Cold air was a little hard to come by, but it certainly worked out for plenty of folks here.

Agreed. I'm fine either way.

In a parallel universe water freezes at 100 degrees. Epic snows year round.

At this point, I say:

Yeah, this winter is worse than '11-'12 for me, but panic and dismay have passed on to numb acceptance and the eager anticipation of spring. Anyway, since we're in a panic thread, I'd like to make a suggestion regarding COVID-19 for anyone who takes critical medication manufactured in China (or via a manufacturer who sources chemicals from China). I'd recommend looking into getting an extra prescription now, as supply disruptions may well be in the offing. These Chinese lockdowns show no sign of abating and there is little likelihood of China getting control over coronavirus and returning to work in the coming month or two. You might also consider gradually stocking up on extra essentials, canned food, rice etc., as social isolation may well be coming to the U.S. in the coming months. The military has already initiated their pandemic plan and if the data concerning the bug's virality are close to correct, there is little chance of preventing this from spreading globally.

Thanks! Pretty surreal.

Wasn't there a freak winter tornado somewhere in Mass a few years back?

Thanks. Beast of a system.

Hey Steve, you're generally on top of these things. Any idea what that beast up near Iceland got down to?