DeltaT13

Apparently Holiday valley changed over a few hours back too

Jamestown has been reporting snow for a few hours now and is sitting at 33. Very envious of them.

This link has the depressing graphics. It’s something i wasn't even aware of until recently. Total seasonal snowfall is somewhat stable over the last 50 years or so, but snowpack is certainly on the downward trend. Vanishing snowpack

So what are the chances we see some wet snow squalls right at the end of the game tomorrow? It’s frustratingly close but seems to probably be a couple hours to late with the changeover. Dang it all.

Sure, but his premise was "the highs on Monday on are going to be in the upper 30's, guess November will be below normal" Ugh....

So you're basing the entire month off of one day? Today isnt yet November. And Wednesday through Friday of next week are already forecasted to be above normal.. I can't quite figure out what your schtick is, but it's annoying. Is he a troll? Or just uninformed....inquiring minds want to know...

Here is Monday Morning in Rochester. Surface temps below freezing. 850's are about -12c Lower atmosphere is fairly saturated. Winds aren't conducive for ROC to get lake effect, but thats a snowy temp profile no matter how you slice it. Stay positive man. We are 8 hours into the winter season and you are already a bastion of negativity. Good Grief.

I mean the meat of this event happens between 6pm and noon the next day. Pretty much perfect timing to maximize nocturnal cooling. Point sounding certainly look like all snow if you believe the GFS. I see no reason to think there wouldnt be measurable snow by Monday morning in many places.

You could be right, but I'm a confessed germaphobe so its hard for me to tell how a normal person behaves. Every scenario you mentioned makes my skin crawl. I was a germaphobe long before this pandemic and would certainly wash or sanitize my hands after every scenario you listed (or at least be cognizant of it and wash my hands at the next available opportunity.) Maybe thats just me..... and if it is, then the rest of the world is gross and needs to step up their game. I joked when this pandemic started that now everyone gets to feel the way I feel everyday, lol. I've been training my whole life for this..

I disagree. Hand sanitizer is around every turn. I use it a dozen times a day (just out of habit now). There are probably 50 hand sanitization stations in my work place. It's at the entrance to every store. Peoples hands are probably the cleanest they've ever been. All I see everywhere are people cleaning their hands. If anything I feel like people are completely underestimating normal talking, that's what is spreading this. Not coughing, not sneezing, just regular old conversation.

Not completely, but I think it means that this mode of transmission accounts for a miniscule amount of spread. I have kind of agreed with this since the beginning. Surfaces are not virus friendly, and each touch inherently has less of the virus on it as some is left behind, some is destroyed, and some is transferred to a new surface. I try my best to not touch my eyes and mouth with my hands these days which I'm sure also helps in the rare circumstance that I have enough on my hands to cause an issue. Additionally, I would expect it takes more virus to get infected via your eyes or mouth than via inhalation.

From the article: At present, health authorities recognize three vehicles of coronavirus transmission: the small droplets from speaking or coughing, which can end up in the eyes, mouth or nose of people standing nearby; contaminated surfaces (fomites), although the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) indicates that this is the least likely way to catch the virus, a conclusion backed by the European Center for Disease Control and Prevention’s (ECDC) observation that not a single case of fomite-caused Covid-19 has been observed; then finally, there is transmission by aerosols – the inhalation of invisible infectious particles exhaled by an infected person that, once leaving the mouth, behave in a similar way to smoke. Without ventilation, aerosols remain suspended in the air and become increasingly dense as time passes.

Thought this was an interesting article. Be smart as we migrate indoors for the long winter. https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-10-28/a-room-a-bar-and-a-class-how-the-coronavirus-is-spread-through-the-air.html

The rain is really struggling to make it up onto the lake plain. Will be interesting to see how far North it can push.. Will my softball game be canceled tonight?....only time will tell (but I'm secretly hoping it gets rained out)

There is certainly a lot of pain coming down the tracks but nowhere near the fear mongering scenario you just typed out. The whole world is in this mess together. If this was somehow just a US problem I might agree with you, but the US is literally too big to fail at this point. If we go down, everyone goes down, and that just isnt happening....

Sunday Monday looks very intriguing on the 0z. The front looks as strong as ever and now there is a shortwave right on its heels that really fires up the lakes for about 12 hours.

That front on Sunday evening is looking pretty intense, at least on the GFS. Pretty strong CAA and gusty winds. Any precip that did fall overnight would certainly be snow, on this model run at least. I would expect a lake response too (although it dries out pretty quickly). The Patriots are in Buffalo that afternoon, would love to see that frontal passage move up 6 hours or so and happen during the game. Wouldnt be snow at that time but it would be wet windy and wild. We shall see..

Agree, Trump takes Florida and PA but loses popular vote by nearly 10 million votes this time around.

I got my first antibody test in May at Well Now. It was a very smooth and well run process. https://wellnow.com/ This test was covered in full under the CARES act. I'm not sure if that is still how it works. Even without the CARES act, this is what I'm finding online "COVID-19 tests are available at no cost nationwide at health centers and select pharmacies. The Families First Coronavirus Response Act ensures that COVID-19 testing is free to anyone in the U.S., including the uninsured. Additional testing sites may be available in your area." My second antibody test and nose swab occured when I was admitted to the hospital for an emergency appendectomy in Late July.

Yeah, snowpack is critical for me. Would love to start holding snow around Thanksgiving and see it gone around the last week of March. That would be an A plus winter.

While it doesnt sound fun to be tested weekly, the alternative hasnt exactly been a picnic and things appear to be spiraling into uncharted territory as we speak. In a perfect scenario, weekly testing could potentially knock this thing out in 6-8 weeks, so it's not like we would have been testing everyone forever. For the record, I've had two antibody tests and one nose swab so far. Can confirm the nose swab is no fun but only takes 10 seconds. Negative on all 3.

That's wild stuff, I just feel like I've heard you say a million times that you miss the winters where we held snowpack. I honestly thought you were one of the biggest proponents of this ideology. My mind is blown.

In other news, looks like the growing season will come to a true end on Friday night with Temps dipping into the mid 20's on the lake plains. I've only had the lightest frost so far IMB....ready to close things down for good but I usually don't cut back my plants until they have been killed off naturally by a freeze. Get those garden hoses and other outdoor waterlines secured for winter!

Come on man, we all use snowpack duration as a metric for how good a winter is. That is why we have routinely been giving winters shitty grades, because we can't hold snowpack for more than a few days or a week at best. Maintaining a snowpack is one of the most satisfying parts of winter!

You say we are missing key points and then make a summary that basically says we should be testing more and testing is probably the key to beating this thing. We appear to be in agreement. Not sure why you can't just say "yeah, more testing would be good"....thats the gist of it.