DeltaT13

Because that's an average, and over the last decade we've had a few seasons with only half that amount. It's no longer a lock that we get crushed with snow anymore. I understand even at 50% it's still a good season for many people outside this region, but we have higher standards after living around here our whole lives.

The clear skies are giving us a chance to take stock on the snow cover. Looks pretty widespread and impressive but cool little localized areas stick out.. Looks like the Genesee valley never really got cold enough to accumulate much as they are already back to bare ground. Easily one of the worst places to live in WNY if you're a snow lover. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

I actually think it’s pretty spot on this time around. I measured a few places around the yard along with the snowboard and ground stake and all measurements were between 3” and 3.5”. These were taken around 9am

I do keep a pretty decent weather journal/log and live less than 2 miles from the airport so I can usually give a pretty good estimation of what's really going on. That said, for all the shit we give Rochester, their numbers are probably pretty accurate by the book; but not representative of what most of us see. As many have stated, the times that the snow actually gets measured plays a big part because of compaction. If Rochester gets lucky and has snow fall closer to the measuring time, it ends up on the high end. On the other hand, there may be some human error with people are measuring at incorrect intervals, or clearing it at the wrong times (Last year seemed to have excessively inflated totals). Throw in the possibility for localize drifting in the measurement area and suddenly we are 20 inches above surrounding towns. I'm not a huge stickler on measuring exactly to the book through most of the winter. I'll clear it around 8am each day if not much is happening. If we have a legit storm I will attempt to clear it at 6 hour intervals but I obviously cant (well I shouldnt) leave work to measure, and getting out of bed to measure once during the night isnt all that fun either (although I've done it a few times). In summary, I'll try to keep a good log this year but my numbers will always be more conservative because of my admitted longer durations between measurements.

Thats an excellent view BW! Even has sound.

Must be some little slivers of warmth still wrapping around this stacked up system. Doesn't take much to disrupt the dendritic processes. Pretty cool storm aside from the lack of interesting weather in my backyard .

We can’t buy a snowflake here in Monroe county

700mb low is directly over Kbuf as per the local mesoscale analysis

Was just coming in to say this! What a huge shift after a very long trend in the other direction.

It would appear that the surface low is in the process of redeveloping back over Western NY. This radar loop is pretty wild, A definite swirl and some lift quite apparent.

As a few of the models (and posters) have eluded too, tomorrow night at least has the potential for something measurable on the South Shore, especially if this NAM run comes to fruition. Thats quite the lobe of moisture pinwheeling back over the lake during the predawn hours with some definite enhancement. Thankfully we have nocturnal influences on our side too. Definitely something to keep an eye on.

That’s certainly an encouraging run but comparing the way it currently depicts the precip field to what I’m seeing shows a huge difference. For whatever reason that model seems extremely juiced up I do agree that it’s very unusual to have a deep low spinning directly north of Lake Ontario for 36 hours. Certainly going to be a lot of mesoscale interactions with warm Lakes, ample moisture, and so much energy nearby.

Spent some time sprucing up my backyard weather observatory this year. Snowboard is in place along with a my total snowfall on the ground stake. Official cocorahs rain guage is setup and in winter mode. And most exciting is the addition of the Tempest weather station by Weatherflow and a Davis Vantage Vue. Should be fun to cross calibrate those two stations. We have an interesting week of weather on tap. Hopeful I can make more than just rain measurements! if anyone has stations and wants to discuss data logging and web interfaces I’m all ears (send a pm). There is a whole world to these backyard weather stations that I didn’t know about, it’s fun but a little daunting.

That article is from 2019. Talks about the Halloween storm...which I know is a sore subject for you B-dubs

That 12z gfs shows a significant and continued weakening trend of the low pressure. Now only getting down to about 993. It’s barely pulling down enough cold air and is struggling to generate its own cold air. Even snow on the western side seems to struggle to develop. The week after still looking really nice though.

We all know Buffalo's Red Zone Defense isnt the best either....

Sounds like something only a concerned democrat would say....interesting. I figured you would be all about them making their own choices.

I'm a Cuomo fan for the most part but I do remember being super pissed when he tried to blame the NWS in Buffalo for failing to forecast this event. They forecasted it just fine, there is just nothing you can do when it snows 6 feet in a day. It's going to be a shit show regardless..

If we seceded we’d be the poorest state in the nation for our population size. NYC completely props us up and funds the dying upstate rust belt. Monroe county is one of the poorest counties in the nation for its size. Erie and Onondaga are the other two biggest counties and all three run massive deficits every single year (and we are the “good” counties upstate). We get a hell of a lot more money and resources from NYC than they get from us. I’m always shocked this isn’t obvious. Seceding would be absolute suicide for upstate.

Man oh man, with thanksgiving next week this is setting up for the perfect storm. I’m hoping people make good choices.

What’s going on in Erie county? 802 new cases today . That seems crazy

The masks in your own house states that it’s only necessary if you are bringing strangers into the mix. I know it sounds crazy but it’s honestly the right thing to do. If one of my neighbors comes over for something we mask up. If I go help the elderly woman next store with her computer I mask up. They aren’t saying wear a mask in your house all the time, just when intermingling with others. It’s obviously not enforceable but the premise is sound. This whole thing sucks. Some of you act like we are all doing this for fun or to stick it to the right. It’s just not true. We are all trying to figure out how to beat this. It’s a shame it’s not a team effort.

The “we have more cases because we are testing more” might be the single most mind boggling statement during this whole thing. If we are finding more cases because of more testing it only confirms that this thing is more out of control than we realized. You can test a billion people and if no one has it your numbers will be zero (I know that sounds obvious but apparently it isn’t). Testing only confirms the existing problem.

Pretty thorough article that confirms that mask mandates do indeed work. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/18/us/covid-state-restrictions.html?action=click&module=Top+Stories&pgtype=Homepage&fbclid=IwAR0p5mdHa501xmqGXOxYv6FjX1GK0iHXDDZKl09F3tkU2488apNQiGlhB_E

So if we stop testing this goes away immediately? Fascinating stuff here.