Typhoon Tip

op ed it's probably my age. i'm sure this does not reflect the sentiments of most in this social media. this ballz achin' cold with legit storm potentials ... seemingly preordained to dice rollin' into oblivion thing really has me ready to check out on winter at a personal historically early date. the next "quasi legit" chance for an organized ...anything to track, is between the 18th and 21st - probably centered on the 20th if the thing even exist. what is happening is another major modal shift in the telecon derivatives of all three ens means: eps/gefs/geps. it is also now showing up wonderfully in the spatial synoptic layouts: strong -epo burst. i would call it a burst as well, because in a day and a half-worth of time the index careens from +1 to -1, while the cinema of the above three ... match that numerology with a rather flashed onset of strong far ne pac/alaskan sector positive anomalies. the operational versions are all onboard. the gfs/euro/cmc, all show a large scale deposition of cold into canada, a loading event that is pretty much unabated. intense polar-arctic frontal event ensues bringing the goods into the conus ... it is out along the leading edge of that frontal sweep that the operational runs are trying to time s/w spacing. what's interesting is that even the individual run cycles that don't have much deep layer s/w potency are tending to create some sort of event during the total transition out there. example, the 00z euro was lack luster with s/w mechanics, but ends up with a wave on the front and a decent moderate event ( 9 or 10 days out). the 06z gfs on the other hand, has a powerful s/w ripping n ... which is likely over done given the gfs' ocd with gradients out in time... blah blah. there's likely to be tremendous thermodynamic potential thru the period of time due to the shear rapidity of these larger scaled changes - it could be that all these ways and means to get an event around the 19 or 20th ... are just a result of poorly resolving any random trigger, fake or real notwithstanding. the rotor drafts aft of a 747 taking off from dullas might be enough i'm sorta waiting on the pna. even a low frequency movement positive might be an indicator for legitimacy. that's occurred ... but it's too new for now.

that's interesting ... wasn't aware this synoptic nuance was in place. yeah, this would be a recipe in early April for massive diurnal given those initial conditions. ...not so sure in jan low here was 19. presently 22+ full sun coming in almost parallel to earth. dead calm. it'll be interesting if there's graphical hint later on if/when the mixing level pops to the higher deck.

we have to also keep in my that water vapor is a huge component in the total themodynamics of the total atmospheric gradient. and, energy storage in in the atmosphere is non-linear. ... check that - i'm pretty sure that is true. a warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor. the poles are warming, but the energy stored in wv in beneath the ferrel latitudes is ballooned well beyond and is assisting in the gradient steepening.

that's me being a dick head on purpose because i thought it was funny

yes

i'm not 'being defensive' ... where are you getting that impression heh no, i'm literally giving you the objective numbers and telling you it doesn't conceptually fit. look, you made a blanket statement that our woes were the pacific - that's not true. it's not. that's not me being defensive.

gotta go back to elementary physics on that one. everything in nature happens because A ≠ B ... if A = B nothing happens. when A ≠ B then either A --> B or B --> A ... the strength in which "-->" occurs, for the purpose of this context, is dictated by the thermodynamic gradient - or the steepness between heat source and sink the gradient between the polar regions, and the equator. ... the polar regions are warming faster than the equatorial region... but, they have a long way to go - below a threshold ( of sorts) still. because they have such a deep hole in the total global thermal budget to begin with, the gradient - for now - is steepened by the regions outside of the polar regions. there's compendium of examples of how this manifests in global pattern and wind behaviors -

i have cited papers that describe this, both empirically and theoretically, in the past. this a public forum. not an academic circle. i get it that those efforts were either unseen and/or ignored. ... most likely because it doesn't fit with people's internal narratives, wants and delusions. not a problem. no one in here is ultimately at risk of accreditation. this is a support group anyway. lol also, there is a reason commerical airlines are seting air-land speed records on west to east flights over the last 20 years ..for more frequently then those types or records were typically broken. you know ..just at an acme sort of vision, you know what's going to happen ... in some many 10s or hundred years or whatever it takes, the polar regions of the planet will have eventually warmed enough that the total gradient goes back the other way ... and the balanced flow everywhere become less aggressive.

predominate does not mean always, mate your negating the +pna, there have been those 60% just eyeballing this from cpc's records. granted this is every month - i did not parse out just djf. feel free to do so. but did it ever occur to you that global shift in climate might also favor the -rna basal state? 2015 0.61 0.59 -0.23 -0.15 -0.16 -0.17 0.76 0.08 -0.92 1.78 -0.19 0.78 2016 2.02 1.48 0.73 0.87 -1.06 -0.70 1.02 -0.88 0.18 1.24 1.52 -0.35 2017 0.28 0.18 0.27 0.40 -0.31 1.01 1.86 0.23 -0.33 -0.40 -2.06 0.89 2018 0.40 -1.03 -0.89 -0.91 -1.34 0.51 -0.37 1.27 1.44 0.21 0.24 0.86 2019 0.83 -1.08 0.25 -0.61 -0.29 0.12 1.11 1.18 2.00 -1.02 -0.06 0.18 2020 -0.24 0.17 -2.17 -1.18 0.21 0.70 1.73 1.82 0.75 -1.13 0.24 1.58 2021 0.19 -0.31 -0.97 -1.05 -1.35 0.67 0.56 0.95 0.44 1.13 0.72 -2.56 2022 1.01 0.66 0.13 -0.74 -0.83 -0.31 2.54 0.79 0.21 0.17 -0.73 -0.66 2023 0.21 -0.64 -1.63 -0.42 -0.86 0.69 1.15 0.45 1.06 1.20 0.55 1.21 2024 0.45 0.09 0.45 -0.65 -2.74 0.97 2.60 -1.01 1.34 0.04 0.06 1.70 if you want the storm behavior-assumptive correlation to those indices to be fair, you have to consider both sides. we say in one hand the cc is real. but then refuse the viability of any given storm system, nor their over-arcing pattern, as behaving accordingly.

what is meant by awful Pacific, tho - we just agreed that apparent compression/shearing/velocity soaking is taking place in both neg and pos pnas and regardless of epos. look, it's not the pacific. its the planetary medium. that's just it - sorry

i get it .. but my point was, when do we get the overrunning? 'cause multi- year result set sorta suggests not often enough to matter the flow compression means fast. everything speeds up. the basal flow rate. the waves themselves. everything has a shorter residence time in any given location. that also makes it difficult to stasis an overrunning scenario for very long, either. trying to get you to see that without my saying so - ha

ehhhh the compression has been persistent. it's been that way during +pna/-epo's too

again... why hasn't that happened in a decade ( if at all ..not often enough- ) there are also reasons fast flows won't support +PP/over top layouts and it's because the intra-pattern ( sub scaled timing ) don't persist along enough - or tend not to. the set ups are rolling out too fast

it's about limitation... compressing mediums means that there is less conserved at shorter wave lengths. this limits cyclogen mechanics like you say, but yeah ... if overrunning scenarios but those just don't set up that often. i see one of those legit per year and some years none. other years more frequent if pistol to head but how many overrunning deals have we had in the last decade? not sure but they weren't enough to commit to memory

i'm ad nauseum at this point having to see gfs charts that look like this ... ...i'm ready argue at this point that winter will under perform snow so long this flow compressed appeal predominates if one is objective in their imagination ... they might actually red flag this as a cc thing, too. because we need the cold, but we seem to not get the cold unless it is compressed. that's a smoking gun for having ambient resting heights too high prior to the arrival of he cold pattern.

hell we're getting that right now with this band out here. sun's orb is vaguely discernible while snow in the air at 20 f and whippy winds has the sfc vis down to 1.5 mi.

one upshot of a tacky capricious, imperialistic presumptive arrogance with this whole annex Greenland fuckery, is that if/and when the general trumpism idiocrasy finally defeats all intelligentsia of the wolrd... that will consequentially have meant removing the ice from the island, thus exposing the only invaluable piece of habitable land remaining in the scorched world - one that his 'brilliance' planned in order to save the top 1% ..

looking at the satellite motion this morning ...classic -nao back drill going on. even have some flurries with dim sun tundra sky

yeah... basically the 12z nam is like an empathetic king offering the dumpster to the plebes - anyway, the reason this system devolved over the last 4 days is really because of this, blw - Scott or someone also mentioned this a couple days ago ... which is in principle the same argument as the model(s) poor handling the western height/mass field orientation. it's been problematic all season thus far. for some reason, we are introducing new wave spaces that bully into guidance during mid range seemingly from nowhere, and then the flow accommodates their presence by f'ing up and interfering negatively whatever's going on over the eastern continent not that this NAM run is particularly gifted as a visionary per se ... but, that stream activity over us at this time above is actually gorgeous; there's just no way to slow the f'er down. that bully from the west, which of course does zero anything in the flow accept keep things dry and cold ..., just forced it's way into the lunch line and so the meal gets served down wind of us

that's sort of what i was getting at when bringing up quantum computing - it just seems intuitive that weather modeling would be hugely advanced to put it lightly. computation in classical computers is done by processing 0's and 1's, doing so at incomprehensible speed mind us. the fastest super computing in operations are on the order 10 to 9th power floating point computations per s. that's 1,000,000,000 executions per - yikes, right?! with all that speed, however ..., these classical computers use bits, 0 or 1, that can only be processed one at at ime. quantum computing on the other hand uses qubits that process the 0 and 1 simultaneously. processing made possible by a principle of quantum mechanics known as superposition ...etc ...[enter tl;dr here]. that's like taking that 1,000,000,000 ex/s above and improving it by so many orders of magnitude that comparing is like difference between conventional rocketry velocities vs speed of light travel.. i wonder if the initialization grid could benefit from that simultaneity ... to know the position and momentum in space and time of every particle in the atmosphere is still ultimately going limit weather modeling capabilities. it doesn't matter how fast the computation takes place, the initial state has to be clad - or ...at least correctable. that is where i wonder. it's like qc might preprocess the input grid for normalizing it so close to actual, that it's all but violating the uncertainty principle. then, run the models using that corrected domain as the input initialization. something like this 'sci fi' vision

Yeah that’s like the “transition versions”

yeah you're looking at a perfect example of how phasing fails when dx outpaces dy in the geometry of stream interactions in other words, the s/w are moving too fast ...it's been a problem in recent years.

i'm curious how the future of modeling is changed by the transformative quantum computing technology. intuitively it seems that weather modeling would hugely advance with that particular capability

actually never mind me ... i have a pounding head cold and hate everybody. i never should have gone to that game in gillete to watch the piece of shit patriots. 23f wind the whole time over a pointless game... by the time we were heading home i was already feelin it