Typhoon Tip

Yeah, agreed ... the 23-25th is probably the next viable risk period - nod to any model that speeds that up by a day between now and then, because of the underlying mode of circulation being what it is - fast. Just something that's been air apparent to me about that period, is that said mode of circulation is slowing. I spoke at length about this, yesterday, ...and then immediately the Euro's 12z run "re-compressed" the flow. The GFS however has maintained its idea of slowing things enough that the next series of wave mechanics have better ability to conserve it's total vitality as it runs up the flow at that time. That's why it's been more robust with that development. The CMC is not as relaxed... it's speeding up the same wave complex, but also has it suppressed because - time to iron this out. But ...as the present event that's looking above median confidence at this point, was all but gone yesterday ... these compression patterns can be overcome, too

agreed ... I was commenting on the RGEM earlier - prior to this 12z cycle but still is so... There's not much hope ( to me ) of this being a ptype issue NW of very SE zones given a 'super' blend of what's available in guidance. Also, I thought at glance that this may be very meso banded ... it may be to some degree, but the 300 mb critical 'fan' jet doesn't actually exist in this situation in either the GFS or CMC. The wind maxima are collocated S of the region. I'm not sure that will supply the slant wise polarward tug aloft that is needed for better frontogenic forcing - interesting

someone here may hear thunder

it's amazing how sensitive this is. those variations, run to run, if we didn't know the history we wouldn't know that we were talking about the difference of 7-10" vs partly sunny

The short version is the critical confidence gathering interval ( that time when it 'seems' actually right) is probably taking place as we type. The longer version/reasons why: So, we're crossing from the mid range into the outer short range. The limitations on prognostic accuracy, in the model handling ..., are still present - the under lying circumstances with the compression/sensitivity loading aren't going away with this. But those are being offset now I've been personally holding out for crossing that threshold in this particular situation, because of that latter aspect above - we need(ed) to get closer where the resolution could 'see' more coherently in a situation where tinier variances would effectively mask the better solutions..etc.. million ways to describe how the models lack resolution to suss out those tiny differences at long ranges, those that are hidden by compression. The ensemble means have, as expected, been later to the party than the higher resolution operational versions. The GFS oper came on board technically overnight; will see shortly if a sense of consistency with this 12z run. I suspect the 12z Euro does as well...seeing both the 06z operational was kindly nodded favorably by the EPS mean - also have a narrow but probably important strip of spread smearing on the nw side of the track mean.

k, so ... overdue arguments are shaky when it comes to statistics. we understand what is meant by that - if a region should experience a given x-y-z every 4 ... 8... 12 years, etc, and that has not occurred, we say "due" but the problem with that logic is that the statistical domain is not closed - it extends in interminably in the past, and future. such that you can have 3 events in 3 years, and greatly expend your 'due' in the other direction, then, go 20 years without anything. at 30 years, you look back, and that is why it's 4 times in 28... etc etc... in other words, the interpretation of 'due', automatically becomes false if not considering the noise/frequency behavior, in the total history. having outlined all that ... now, consider a changing climate - springs and autumns have really demoed increasing occurrences of quixotic extremes. october presentations of snow and or cryo supportive synoptics have increased in frequency - this has also been true in springs ...as late as May, since the last 20 or so years of the 'hocky stick' acceleration. these extremes make the "due" aspect above, even less useful. it's almost safer and more logically clad to suggest that the climate expectation is for stochastic extremes, more so than the prior inference will allow the due thing to parlay very well.

i was just looking at that... the 06z has a small quasi hybrid cored low scooting out well se, but you can see it sort of nods to another development with an ivt of sorts down around the carolinas - talking 84 hours.

anyway, assume full impact ( or the most possible ...), what that is probably caps at a middling/moderate type event. yeah, meso banding this, or cf enhancement that can materialize and lay down a stripe that exceeds the general layout in any event. but by and large this system is limited by ... yup, you guessed it, compression getting in the way of huger mechanics, and also speed. this fugger is haulin' ass. it may only last 7.change hours. i'd go (light+moderate)/2 ...and anyone that gets more than that has to buy a round at the next meet up. unless it all misses haha

mm maybe initially in a shallow sfc layer, but that ends up a cryo profile easily when cyclogenic atmosphere runs overhead the way i see it. the 850 mb event entry is -5c over ORH and the llv thickness is in the snow range, and it's not warmer at 700 mb in this case. it may be a difference of opinion ...over a model cinema that isn't worth the effort ( the rgem at 84 hours hahahaha ) anyway lol, but that low is going to pop s of long island in that circumstance, when the right exit region runs over the b-c axis that is better defined in that region. that will back the 850s and immediately there is no warm air at that point. you guys in the se ( again...talking my own rgem extrapolation ) may have to deal with a cf for a time... but it's less than 0c at 850 on either side of that

yeah, 06z euro is west and essentially on-board with the 06z gfs ... both of which may actually be tamed version of the 00z ggem, but i recall back in the older days the ggem had a slight meridian bias at d4. in theory the upgrade heredity would atone ... but just like with the euro's sw lag, or the gfs progressive bias... these still seem to vestigially nuance the runs every once in a while. and look, we're crossing the 96 hours threshold - go figure...

that RGEM solution from 00z and 06z ...doesn't necessarily extrapolate to a rain event east of the river for me. is there some longer version of this model that isn't the ggem itself or something ?

would anyone find it funny if this ended up takin' a boat ride up the Hudson ? ho man. there'd be some deliciously guilty schadenfreude watching that happen muah hahaha

oh there's a separate phenomenon with this engagement that's ( frankly..) a bit manic in the proper psycho-babble sense... it almost doesn't matter what the model is, reputation and quantitative skill ..etc etc, so long as it paints the illustration that triggers - that's why when enjoying a cup of morning coffee and cracking open the overnight's frivolities ... i seldom any more move my own needle on any inspiration or interest, motivated by the shared optimism that is apparent in here. because hands down... i go look at the synoptics and i'm like, 'what the f are they talking about' hahaa

this is the high sensitivity i was just discussing. one is hard pressed to see differences there that would typically inspire one version or the other yet we're seeing enormous implications from these very minute differences - it's all because of the compression circumstance. i just suggest people try to take these model runs on the chin, in both directions, until we get inside of 84 hours with the full compliments

late to the party this morning; this has likely already been discussed. the eps/geps/gefs mean all were a step in the direction of coherence on this thing. this is a positive for event enthusiasts for me, i have the same approach to this that i did two or so days ago... this needs to be < 96 if not 72 hours before the confidence slope. it's due to the fast nature of the flow in a very compressed field. this circumstance lowers the confidence more than typical, relative to lead times, for a couple of reasons. 1 the suppressive/negative interference flirts with being total ( enough to be a non-event). whether it is enough to completely miss ( yesterday's op gfs') or backs off enough to gets us into the action (op cmc) ... that requires higher resolution that a, is better provided by the operational runs, and b ...gets better in shorter terms. bringing this up because more typically ... a general risk assessment might rely more on the various ens means, but this circumstantially makes that challenging. this is an anomalously compressed total circulation mode predicament. the 06z gfs combine with the modest, albeit real, spread on the eps on the nw side of the track mean, which in itself, are clues that support the < 72 hour philosophy for me. 2 the impact corridor of any system is narrowed/stretched along the dx. there's other aspects like fast motion of the storm not being able to overcome the moisture sink further west of the center... nuances et al, limits the impact region so narrowly, this compounds reason 1 above even more, because we're asking the models to then be very precise about at a range they are even more challenged to be accurate. ..the two factors above are always in play when your dealing with these impacted flow regimes - it's a matter of how much.

heh the reason for the always miss frustration is just a numbers game - when threading needle patterns the margins are very narrow. which means the odds of any given location become unfavorable. not getting events is just the odds playing out for the pattern if you need to be frustrated, the real frustration should be in why this pattern keeps repeating every year regardless of variant leading indicators

I’m not super old … right smack in the middle of not a kid anymore. I don’t recall many winters that were pan-dimensionally snowy and cold prior to 95/96 maybe 78? the CSB storm, followed a couple weeks later by the blizzard back east. And I think what folks forget about late in ‘77 Dec featured a couple potent miller As. not sure if those produced in the m/a but Harv spun tails for me about covering those for the Boston area and how they were both supposed to be cold rain. that winter was multi regionally impacted. other than that and 95/96 … there seems to always be some redheaded step region that gets left out just for want -

qualitative ... he gave you his quant .. i think you mean qualitatively - the context of your back and forth was that 'big dawg ec winters are rarefying' - there's some subjectivity to that so it kind of has to be a qualitative aspect. whatever.. man, make this winter stop

god i f'n hope we don't observe a propagating ssw in f'um february. f that! if it does, no baseball weather until the end of june - and it won't mean snow in march, either. keep hopin' and maybe you'll get what the devil wishes you for

yeah i mentioned the same aspect to him last night. also repeated this morning, ' this probably needs to be < 72 or so hours' before the confidence spike

guys ... i was being snarky re the half over winter - dec 1 to mar 1 really doesn't mean anything to reality and nature. it's just a dumb demarcation because climate science needs to have equal quadrature

unless this is a pun ... i think you mean swallow us "whole" - but come to think about it .. hole is better lol

might be time to start admitting certain large scale irrecoverable limitations

thank god then ... winter's half over today by met calendar.

so the euro 're-compresses' the flow in that time period now ... of course anything more favorable looking between the 23rd and the end of the month was predicated on that relaxation - imho. without it, it's more nuanced and far less predictive. this is our problem ... non-hydrostatic heights exceeding 594 dm in latter January near by E of the Bahamas, pressing up against a mid Canadian shield PV that's below 500. nothing is going to squeeze thru there and conserve enough of it's own mechanics capable of doing jack shit