Typhoon Tip

You stated, ".. Bz is more than -20 so we're missing a great show. ..." It may have been a bad assumption but that sounded to me you were bummed out about it being day-time. Sorry. Whether it is relevant to you or not... fact of the matter is, Kp of 5 would be stressed to see it at our latitude even on a star lit night. That index measure doesn't extend to our latitude - I don't see how that is irrelevant. Nor premature - you should probably learn some tact. I'm not some rube in this area of near -terrestrial physics. I fail the to see the logic in how those post could be construed as either irrelevant, or premature. Those factors and concepts are central to the phenomenon science for f sake. jesus

It doesn't seem you do. But, that's fine - I tried to explain why "you were not missing out" at the time you made your post; but you seem to be evading that explanation for whatever reason. to each his own -

I know what it means... And I know how to use it. If it's only a 5 max, you may not see it around here, anyway, so you're "not missing out" - that was the point.

I wonder if we are, though - The "auroral oval" on the web-site has a big gap in it over on our side of the hemisphere. New England to southern Greenland is effectively 0 on that particular product. Besides, the Kp index is really what we should be going by...and we usually need a minimum of 6 to start seeing it via longer exposure recording devices. Presently it is only 5 ... So, gaps and fives ...meh. That may and probably will change as the full onslaught of the CME continues to impinge upon the planetary system ..yadda yadda, but for now, we aren't missing much if daylight is the only limitation. It's centered on the other side and is of lower storm strength at this time. We'll see how things cook heading toward evening...

http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/26/africa/kenya-pope-francis-trip-main/index.html

Which side of the pole is the annular ring/oval... ? Last thursday was the 156th anniversary of the Carrington event. Just sayin'

Shouldn't have been so 'amazing' frankly. I realize I am but one voice opposed to a shrill din of bandwagoneers .. but no, 'been pounding the "NAO over rated drum" for a number of years. But hey - the only way to heard is to published so, taken fwiw - The EPO domain space and its timed relay into mode changes in the PNA, together serve as the primary cold loading patterns over N/A. The NAO is merely an assist, but not required. People pull statistics out of the cherry tree that show that x-y-z years were negative NAOs when more snow occurred, thus the natural conclusion is a-b-c. But no, ..that is all more likely because there is a weak negative correlation in the PNA/NAO relationship. Such that a rising PNA tends concurrently with a falling NAO over the longer term. Retrograde events do take place from time to time, but the rest state is west to east... NAO doesn't dictate snow events people. In fact, a "statically" negative NAO is a suppress flow exertion and that causes perturbations in the atmosphere to dampen/shear. The NAO may have positive last year on the whole, but I bet you dimes to donuts it was fluctuating up and down, above 0 SD, as the PNA/EPO were doing their thing.

One thing that's always stood out in my memory as interesting about that '92 storm was all the consternation before hand regarding p-type and where.... Yet, when all was set and done, not only did snow win out in most places (given time and dynamics depending) but the temp was into the upper teens in a lot of those some areas of interior eastern zones. That's not just a p-type and subsequent snow amount bust... that's busting with some serious panache! 17 F ??!! hello -

...oh man. After this up here, an advisory wouldn't even be noticed... People would be out running around in short sleeve shirts in relief if they got an advisory. 'Thank got we've improved all the way to an advisory -- now we can live normally again!'

Long way to go before that can be tested... I just saw a 12-18" graphic...

I have a hunch ... these cut-off histrionic historical hysteria storms... when the cut off, that gives a solid 12 hours for bands to move farther SW than modeled. Tends to happen. We'll see...

We used to call that the "double E" rule, back whence the NAM was called ETA... and was a better model, ironically...

Rad returns in the MA and S of LI have abruptly begun a west drift if not movement, and I'd argue that the 700 and 500 mb sfc are in processes of closing at this time. They will only deepen going forward. meanwhile, heavy band approaching the Cape and SE

HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR A CRIPPLING/HISTORIC BLIZZARD IMPACTING S NEW ENGLAND. NEGATIVELY-TILTING H5 TROUGH THROUGH WHICH MID-LEVEL ENERGY INTENSIFIES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SE OF NANTUCKET NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK NE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY ALONG AN OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE ENHANCED BY HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED N ACROSS E CANADA. CLASSIC CONVEYOR BELTS BENEATH H3 JET COUPLING AXES OF RRQ / LFQ YIELDS STRONG DIFFLUENT MOTIONS ALOFT. LOW VERTICALLY STACKS / FILLS BECOMING CAPTURED / STALLING BENEATH THE CLOSING LOW ALOFT RESULTING IN A SLOW-MOVING / LONG-DURATION STORM. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OF 40-50 MB IN 18 HRS. ALREADY ONGOING AS LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS THE INITIAL NEGATIVE-TILT AHEAD OF WHICH THE BAROCLINIC-LEAF STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT. LOTS OF OFFSHORE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY INDICATIVE THAT THIS STORM IS GETTING BEEFY/INTENSIFYING. ITS BOMBOGENESIS BABY!

- CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD - SERIOUS LIFE-THREATENING STORM / TRAVEL DISCOURAGED! - 1 TO 2 FT OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SNOW-BANDING - WHITE OUT CONDITIONS / NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITIES AT TIMES - STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS / HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND - MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING / SEVERE BEACH EROSION Hell on Earth... okay, got it. That's all you had to say, the scariest place imaginable.

Now cast is upon us... Shed little weary tears for wayward solutions when the wave is about to curl over your head. Stunned at the 12z Euro tho - wow. Model of choice do to the lesser of evils.. Daunting too, with it's point 45" numbers in SE zone; somewhat hearkens to 1978 which pummeled i that region particularly hard (NE RI ...) One of the more fantastic baroclinic leafs I can recall:

I took one look at one panel of the 18z RGEM ...36 hour panel, and structurally there are a lot of differences compared to this 00z NAM run... Believe me, I know my stuff -

The Euro has been better.

1... Will might be better to ask that, but ... I have found the RGEM to be a darn good tool inside of 36 hours in general. In fact, I use that over the NAM in most cases. Which is interesting considering the GGEM can't predict a hole in the head after losing Russian Roulettes. 2. If they are, the NAM is coincidental... But even the RGEM isn't infallible.

exactly...

Exactly .. .as much as we try, folks' just keep latching onto the latest run to promote their sadistic intent to feel horrible about matters. You know what? who cares -- are you guys really that freaked out about missing 29" over solid foot of fun? Hell, if it snow 5" here, plowable, in this pattern? you got like the start...

I don't agree with NAM being onto anything. It can't keep continuity between runs wrt to jet streak tracking, changing from run to run across the last 24 hours of cycles... back and forth. No folks -

This NAM run breaks continuity all over the place with vorticity maxima ... I'd take this run with a grain of salt...

They are sensible...considering all options and contingencies... Let's not get into this "what are they thinking!" just because it goes against the meme of a done deal (not that you are, just sayin')

Two weeks earlier that season on January 19th-20th, there was a big one ... I think that one was forecast as a rain/mix pellet fest and turned out to set Boston's 24 -hour snow record for the time.