Typhoon Tip

I was talking specifically about cubs with protective mother getting startled... you're siting a different scenario there - least the AC spoke at length about it and its stuff I've read on that anyway - mother bears are a different lot; escape or not, if in their primal brains they feel there is any threat to their kids, you're in the wrong place. I mean ...in general, what I encountered was minimal risk. I was not presenting any threat to it and it had options for vectoring out of there... But any time one sees a wild meat eating animal that probably stood over 6 foot on hind legs also fill up a bike path in front of them, that's bit disconcerting.

Local news media down our way has been warning about bird-feeders in particular ... ( not so much bees but... duh - ). I hadn't paid too close attention. Every so many years you hear of a bear sighting. Cayote does in a house cat ..or Bobcats too. But this year there's been some heightened thing going on... I think there's been a few sightings with a momma and cubs ..perhaps more than one family's been roaming around out here in these NW rural burb's lately... That's what the AC gal intimated on the phone when the call came in asking questions about where and what circumstances, and what exactly I say a couple hours ago. She also said what I saw fit the description of big male and that was a little more alarming in that Ayer is brick-and-mortar town with streets and thoroughfares ... terminating into near-by neighborhoods with lawns that fade into woodland lines. Not totally cow-poke with some population density, so - She mentioned the bird feeders ...and that bears (apparently) have a remarkable memory for where they can eat. Dumpsters behind diners and grocery stores are also a problem, which we have both those too.. You're right about the timidity of the bears ...and this one acting skiddish and fleeing the scenario is typical. But, the "startle" factor is a different thing... It's true that bears will make haste, even with cubs, but if you come up on one so quick and startle them while proximal that's a different beast - perhaps literally...

Yeah... honestly, I wasn't 'scared' per se? I really didn't know what to do. Locking the breaks was really more instinctual - like... sometimes when you ride past a dog the dog will be inclined to chase? Similar deal... didn't feel like being chased by a bear - ha. But yeah... I think I had internal voices telling me not to act panicked or to make sudden moves. So I just slid to a stop and froze, and let the bear notice me... Soon as it did, it bounded away. The whole encounter was really only 40 or 50 feet - so ...despite what I'm saying now, that's definitely way way too close per both common sense and advice by animal control/specialists for that particular species. But it was accidental thing... I haul ass...average 19 to 22 mph on my rides so I happened onto that scene very quickly and zomb! But it's true...if that had been a mom with cubs trying to cross the path .... oy. Not sure the situation resolves the same way - I tell you though...what they say is true. Despite the beastly nature of that animal, they are very very skiddish. That guy really was more afraid of me than I was of him... I was still trying to figure out what to do about the meet up when he was already gone.

For those of us who live mid ...north Middlesex co ( and probably everywhere else W-N-NE of here... ) be careful about bear - I was out doin' a 25 mi ride yesterday and had to lock the breaks, skidding to a stop when I finally processed what I was looking at along the side of the bike path. A huge gamely black shadow was a that of a black bear. The encounter was only abut 3 mi from Ayer ..which is a fairly populated, and though the path its self appears wilderness on both sides there... there are lots of back yards in the region this guy was seen, too. Soon as the sound of my breaks it turned it's leer down toward me, and it leaped over the bike path and scurried into the woods... Pretty amazing. Enormous... It pretty much filled the path width. f'er musta been 500 pd ...I guess a big big male. You know, these television and photos ...they don't do those justice. Those beasts are bigger than we think. So I continued along my ride and less than a quarter to half mile later I pass a young mom with a tot in a stroller... I felt compelled to warn her the bear was in the vicinity... her eyes got big and she turned the stroller around, "okay"... It started to sink in and so I warned others along the bike path. Later as I was bragging about the encounter to other friends and family... they were scolding me for not going to animal control... and I guess in retrospect...if that had been a mom with cubs, I wonder if my sudden startling her would have ended the same way. You might be going, "Tip hasn't posted in months." heh. anywho, I went to the police and then 20 minutes later Animal Control called and took all this information. They said the were getting higher frequency of sightings with mom and cubs in the area, but that description above did sound like a male to them and they were all freakin out.

Heh... that's the snark that leaped to my mind too - ... like, really - 'cotton' okay

https://www.aol.com/article/weather/2019/07/01/freak-hailstorm-buries-guadalajara-mexico-in-3-feet-of-ice/23760878/?ncid=txtlnkusaolc00000992%3Fncid%3Dtxtlnkusaolc00000992&fbclid=IwAR2a1CRnvhFKzuy-6hSNmAOIP7TdAPzkP1O7LcEEN-Hiuta8pg81-f1i35o#

Meh... some years ... months are different - shocking revelation! June last year has zero bearing on June this year. If anyone has a modicum of philosophical awareness, it may occur to them that the comparison really has equal value to that: Zero. It's tantamount to saying June last year is not June this year - right...got it. Thanks. We had a temperate June ... yay. While most of us in here discussed that as a very likely plausibility ... back at the end of May (btw), I guess now we are stunned that June was banal for heat? I guess.. Going forward, July very likely will start above normal. How much exactly remains to be seen... But, I could see the first 1/4 of the month finishing solidly above.

Bit of an "intuitive no-brainer" really ... I mean it's always good to corroborate common-sense based supposition with empirical evidence, ... but liquid water has more energy per unit volume compared to free air - liquid on ice is a more effective delivery of energy to the ice than would be the ice-conditioned air/environment immediately in contact in the glacial basal regions. This is like after-school Mr Wizard's fun physical sciences for 4th grader material.... I know, but that conceptually can be blown up to the scale of these magnificent systems - physical rules don't change just because a Greenland's ice is awesome. not that you think so... just sayn'

You mean like this ... https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/14/us/greenland-sudden-ice-melt-wxc/index.html ...course, it is CNN -

Mishandling the MJO ? ... like the distribution of upper level divergence ?? Heh, seems the GFS does this every May though... I wonder if it mishandles the MJO every May... Actually, it seems to me the GFS ( and GGEM for that matter ) both start curving the isobars cyclonic over the western Caribbean too often beyond 200 hours, regardless of month anywhere between April and early December - you may be right about the MJO but I also wonder if it's just an artifact of those particular physical models way out in time, also. In any case, the prediction is near normal for this year.... They're predicting "two to four" (whatever that means...) majors canes, which presumably mean 6 or so total... and 12 sub cane TCs... blah blah but, these numbers didn't mean shit in 1992

The whole climate-change causality-crisis circuitry is wired by a particular failure in the ballast of most of those walking the Earth. This species has difficulty accepting threat and/or peril ... unless it is directly perceivable via at least one of the five senses. Here's the interesting aspect; it is not really the fault of humans ... All biology responds to sensory input. Global Warming's effective destruction moves too slowly, is too subtle, when moving daily temperatures short decimals, from year to year, means "oh my god!" That sense of urgency is intrinsically incongruous with lacking perception of threat. Gives rise to a catch-22; because it is precisely an immediate response,to a threat they cannot readily perceive, that is necessary. By the time GW-related climate change is palpable to the senses in that way ... you're dying from the apocalypse. "Oh, seems GW was re -" ...death gasp. gone. Simply put... tell someone to get off the train tracks ...they may take a few moments to look around, eventually stepping off... maybe not. That same person sees the train? They dive off those track... with the lithe dexterity of a paratrooper! Speaking with Professors at MIT and BU ... the consensus among peers is that this problem is as much a sociological one as it is chemical. It's a functional conclusion that bears both intuition as well as an explanation that fits empirical data.

7" here in NW Middlesex country ... Just made the winter storm warning criteria ... heh, the 8th seed in the NBA... "National Blizzard Association" playoffs Now 38" on the season at mi casa

Heh... this was too well advertised and also empirically too larger in scale to fit with the 'little critter' concept - Bozart et. al. unless you just meant that for colloquialism

It's interesting looking at this (time-sensitive?) image provided by WPC ... Just how much of this thing is entirely produced by mid-level forcing, as anything associated to cyclogenesis appears quite suppressed... Weak low east of Del Marva, with a track trough situated ENE, doesn't scream in favor of the low positions offered by many guidance' I saw leading up - looks like the low position its self may bust S ... just estimating. We're actually closer to the high pressure centered near western Maine; while we brow rub over the northern extent of snows... I'm almost surprised it is snowing as much as it is from PVD to PLY where that band even exists, probably owing to the mid levels smeared NW. For me astride Rt 2, with that fog-snow (yes some aggies ..) But.. this whole structure at mid levels did have a negative elongation as was modeled in the blend so... yeah, they did okay there. All and all, feel pretty satisfied. The last entries last night seem to have verified rather nicely as Weatherwiz and I mentioned... This was slated to be a narrow corridor impactor, hauling ass! You may even be lording over your device or PC in a gray ambiance between noon and 2 pm when suddenly ... forced illumination glows the room. This is an interesting time of year... In the heart of this thing, it's deep winter by appeal. When/if the sun comes out two hours later and the wind stays light, the faux nape warmth that Kevin gets watery-eyed for, along with heated interior of his car ... really does provide two disparate perceptions that he often waxes nostalgic for. We'll see on the latter... The sun angle is climbed enough that a shallow saturation absent lift can evaporate below a weak inversion more effectively than it would in one of those the wood-smoke afternoons of early January. Anyway, we also said that sat and rad can be deceiving. It's interesting that both seemed to work out... The results this morning appear to be a blend about mid way between the high res ... plug pulling toaster party late last night, together with radar looking too neggie and ending up perhaps a little bit farther N... As was evidence(d) by the content dumped into this social media between circa 8pm and midnight ... this thing was a worse performer than what is taking place, while also still being somewhat more compacted S. Interesting

F - !? Not the dreaded minus F. Pay attention folks. Very rarely is there a winter actually worse than a failure. Wtf does that mean, F- haha

I was just going to say… Extrapolating radar doesn't snow north of New York City. But like Will and I were talking about earlier's radar and satellite and stuff can be deceiving. We'll see

mm... k, buuut... there's some large more super-synoptic scaled arguments I've had all along in mind, that sort of keep/kept me from being too bullish. I could see it going either way - still within margins of error to go only 50 % of consensus totals, and due to the endemic uncertainty with an inherent "needle threader" system and exact course and banding, having weird strike back gashing from HFD- to BED I could see that too... Barring the lesser likely, though, this "should be" a narrow impactor, hauling ass like bats leavin' hell. Translation timing alone playing a limiting factor as well... Compressed, high velocity patterns limit impacts to narrow regions... doing so with middling over all mechanical strength has left me scratching heads to find where 6-8 " come from but again,.. margin for error is bit higher. The MESOs could erroneous for convective handling... yup, but ... maybe they should've been to high in the first place.

Filter turned off again ...? j/k.... good luck with your forecast

Speak of the devil... James just saved the day! ahah

Careful I've done that before, too ... go to bed feelin' really good about Sat and Rad trends, regardless of whatever disappointment was being evaded on my way to slumber... only to wake up wonder how in the hell said Sat and Rad didn't parlay better... Sometimes those loops sorta kinda like lie? you know -

'Been just sort of observing ... ( lost interest due to my perennial checking out that typically happens in March ...don't take it personally. ) It seems there is/has been a tendency to collectively lean toward higher amounts reviewing many pages in this thread. Then the subtle surprise when x-y-z run cuts back and, then a-b-c model suggests more and we forget the x-y-z... I just wanna add, I don't typically see big amounts from fast moving open waves... particularly when the wave its self has almost vague mechanical signature in the flow. I think some of this nearer term run-up attenuation of the development profile (talking Satur...), may be realism and correction pushing back against the above 'leaning'. On the other hand, just about any permutation in the Earth's atmosphere since about 50 years ago ...is going to have more moisture at its disposal ... so, comparatively weaker kinematics can ...I dunno, add a couple tenths or so... That's just fact - water output from island showers near Fiji, to enormous tempests in the GOA, to categorical hurricanes in the Atlantic... to thunderstorms in WeatherWiz's backyard... everywhere, the atmosphere is empirically holding more moisture and rate results are up. Not sure how much that facet should deterministically add to this thing, but, it's just to say that the same synoptic evolution in 1919 doesn't produce (probably) as prolifically as it does in 2019.. Worth a consideration... if only for a little more. The other aspect I'm toying around with is the "little critter" phenomenon - which is a euphemism (don't panic ) for when a seemingly innocuous perturbation in the flow goes flippin' nuts, which happens regardless of 1919 or 2019, too... I don't know this qualifies, ...I don't think it will ... but, most of those positive bust types take reanalysis to figure out why. You know, I saw Bozart's presentation back in 1997 when he first coind the expression to describe those head scratch six hour long S+er's out of nowhere... as I also recall the system he was using for his presentation. It was fascinating... 10" on a west wind along the pike and SE Mass is the ultimately left-fielder... Pretty sure it was Feb the previous year. Anyway, different story different time no analog.

If there's any usefulness ... https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/full.html

Not entirely sure... CPC provides a lot of on-line 101 level essay and explanation text for their various Q&A and methods ...etc... They sort of tip their hat to 'not really normalizing for the hockey-sticking' (so to speak), however: What is the relationship between El Ni�o/La Ni�a and global warming? The jury is still out on this. Are we likely to see more El Ni�o's because of global warming? Will they be more intense? These are questions facing the science community today. Research will help us separate the natural climate variability from any trends due to man's activities. If we cannot sort out what the natural variability does, then we cannot identify the "fingerprint" of global warming. We also need to look at the link between decadal changes in natural variability and global warming. At this time we cannot preclude the possibility of links but it is too early to say there is a definite link. c/o: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensofaq.shtml#RELATIONSHIP Their exact data ranges may be buried in those links somewhere .. but, climate intervals are broken into different multi-decadal lengths for different uses. Edit, might be useful to note that even since 1980...the lion's share of mass occurred in the latter half of that nearly 40 year span

It's fascinating ... Perhaps time will expose that it's like a heat 'catch basin' that occurs during otherwise neutral times. It's an illusion of an El Nino event in that sense [if so] because it's only warmer than normal against 1950 but not necessarily in a neutral ENSO in 2020 ... hmm The other thing, NASA ...NOAA... tea leafs in china... whatever, they may already "normalize" the anomaly for the hockey-sticking... (I'm calling it hockey-stickinig, just means rapid rise at the end of the multi-decadal curve). That would make the "actual" Earth-relative anomaly (as in present tenths) more accurate. But, the atmospheric component of that is a quagmire -

well...yeah ...in your defense, I wasn't even considering the recent spatial science/delineation of ENSO anomalies - as in, 'where' the warmth is located out there. But it shouldn't matter - if there is a muting effect that is secondary to El Nino's presence ...because the El Nino is concurrent against a warm backdrop ...yadda yadda... It still would be influenced the same way. The problem here is that in a 'climate flux' ... you don't have Modoki this... and Nino 1+2 that actually IN that same historical framework... why? because it hasn't happened yet.