Typhoon Tip

It's actually amazing outside if people let it... 52 here with near full sun is sensibly quite the balmy blast after 48 hours of nascent acclimation to dry uninspired cold. Almost makes me wish it'd just stay this way. I am starting - admittedly - to get into that middle age tendency to reflect in futility .. pretty much about everything in reality for that matter. But, sun rise ... sun sets, seasons in seasons out - it does all get a bit repetitive. Really the best word for it. The older we get and integrate memory engrams, the harder it is to challenge those experiences, those types of events whose standard deviation exceeds one's personal data set; they must also by definition get increasingly rarefied. Been there - done that.

The "wink" emoji's are condescending in most usages. It only adds to that "tone" when being winked out by someone whose interpretation isn't correct - As far as the other stuff, I don't actually claim to not be affected by the weather in an emotional or spiritual way. Never have. However, I do go on record as having better self-control in not allowing it to really "get to me" in the same way that is oft palpable in the regulars here - who clearly use this social media platform as a support group. Kidding a little there, but, nothing I said is untrue in the previous post. So, be that as it may... sometimes I do like to use the truth as a weapon - because it really just exposes the delusion that exists in the reader. The reader shouldn't be reading in, in that way in many cases as well.

Battles ...? I was just in the process of thumbs upping that post - haha... He nailed it. I never said once that I didn't get annoyed by the weather - I just believe I have a better self-control and use that in a devious way. Lol.

Maybe because there's nothing to figure out I'm just stating reality - I said, yay, cool to see 10 F in Novemeber. But, it's still missed opportunities for the storm enthusiasts, too.

If you're into the temperature depths as an empirical oddity sure... Otherwise, pointless cold - This is/has been a pointless stretch for storm enthusiasts ... by and large. Pretty remarkable that such a strong H.A. and corrective look failed .. .But, it sort of didn't fail too, because well, there is a precipitation event. Joke. There'll be some imby-driven dissent on that idea, of course... central NE and whatever, but while they gloat, they'll be blissfully unaware that everywhere got subjected to cold unutilized in greater proportion to whatever this pos doles out. Otherwise, yayyyy - we got our 10 F in November yet again. Pretty cool -

Could be a 32.5er down to the Pike once that ageo kicks in ...

Yeah I was just looking at that Scott. Subtle variance lean that way in the RGEM fwiw when comparing the 00z to 06z, and I'm leery anytime these higher resolution boundary layer models show that inverted ridging in the llv pressure pattern extending down from Maine like that. Not predicting a ice storm here, but despite the appeal of the Global runs, that's not mild air up to SE VT there. Both models have the leading boundary depicted S of CT/RI - as is classically illustrated by the curvature layout of the PP. Meanwhile there is any damming structure at all N of that? Sorry, but I'm a hard liner against warmth getting into the interior when you get east of the Berks/Whites and we have a topographic drain built right in - this has 925 mb burrier jet written all over it. And even if it is weak it's blocking the llvs from warmth entirely.

Thankfully ... the Euro won't now be 2 for 2 on event over-selling so far this season come Tuesday.... Interesting ...the model had to speed up the timing in addition to .. pretty much completely morphing it's synopsis. The GFS wasn't much better from this Novie 4 time range, but, it's depiction of a flatter system that was succumbing to progressive fast flow "conceptually" gets the nod in my book - even though it doesn't get a win per se. I think in terms of egregiousness the Euro's error is objectively larger. Unless of course this thing turns around in the next 30 hours of modeling and carves out a NESDIS bomb of 5 along the NE coast. Then sure .. the Euro wins

might have better luck with one of those in the parade of southern stream systems the 18z GFS lifts up the seaboard once this pointless cold pattern completes its waste of our time - ha.. But the flow relaxes and any one of those could be a blue bomb

This whole 10 day period of time is a lesson in too much of a good thing... Particularly packing all those cold heights on top of a still resistant S/height crest. That flow is sped up in between dry cold shots. I think I even mentioned this, tho in sarcasm, back then, that this could end up being a dry cold blustering uninspired result. We'll see what Tuesday at last delivers - best bet is obviously the Capital District of eastern NY up through central NE for now. Otherwise, another cold shot ... then - Hate to say, but the operational Euro's dismantling the -EPO construct out near D's 8-10 has support in the American tele's. It may be transient prior to reload ...I don't know, or even oversold in both, but as it stands right now, there is at least a pattern lull set to take place out there around 20th. The other aspect to keep in mind is the the EPO is almost as fickle as the NAO...with somewhat stochastic onset behavior, at other times ..models tending to 'lose' it only to rebuild the blocking regime up that way. So, vigil either way... I'll stand by my ideas though, that without the -EPO, we flop above normal because the rest state is threshold(ing) into an all or nothing type of alternation. Hybrid PHL already... Until I see a static average atmosphere that is average without it coming from a cold source in order to do so, I'm pretty confident that's the new deal.

The subtle slowing in the NAM I mentioned a while ago could really just be 'giga' perturbation and not really be indicative of trend. Just thought I'd clarify that. It could.. but the the only reason I brought it up was because it was endemic to the one model/interesting... 'Fact that I have not seen an 18z cycle from any other source that backs that noise, in fact... the opposite is more true, doesn't help the NAM's case. That said, the only thing the NAM may have going for it is that it's resolution in the boundary layer may have a better idea on where the front lies down. It's slightly south axis could certainly be atoned for seeing that resistance in the lower thickness intervals. But, perhaps comparing to other meso models might help there ?

This NAM solution is interesting in that it appears to be slowing the entire deep tropospheric synoptic evolution by some 6 hours ..but crucially enough to blossom that baroclinic leafing in NYS to central NE more prodigiously.. It's also causing subtly more deepening along and S of LI, which may be inducing a bit more ageo. flow/mixing into the Rt 2 region... with an bit more QPF flashing over to snow out there in time. But that level of detail aside, ( and it is the NAM of course! ), the overall complexion of that is bit more meaningful I would think than some of these immediate prior solutions.

I've been tussling with the hypothesis that a +PNA is not enough in and among itself.. I've noticed this tendency over the recent two decades ... getting more coherent with each passing cold season, where without the -EPO, you shut off and flip violently above normal. We've entered a one-or-the-other as a longer termed, multi-seasonal tendency. We seem to be entering, or are in, a new paradigm, ..most likely associated with the dreaded eye-roller climate change, where it's all or nothing. We have to have the ridge tapping the arctic air mass and delivering en masse/loading, or the expanded HC reasserts its self, and we have a rather extreme continental roll-out of cold replaced with above normals - that behavior, overall, is becoming more common place in cold seasons. That said ...we have been blessed at mid latitudes of the continent, in that the Pacific Basin bulge ( and this goes back to primitive climate model predictions from the late 1980s-'90s ) is unrelenting, do to the [ theorized ] SST anomalies that are relatively above normal, regardless of specific PDO state. That bulge is turning the flow NW in Canada, .. more frequencies of -EPOs to ironically cloak the fact that without said EPO ...you're flipping the other way. In other words, +PNA's with less arctic tapping are warmer patterns than they were 50 years ago. Sorry folks ..you gotta start modulating this shit into your ideas about your winter outlooks or they're meaningless, particularly when there are papers explaining the HC expansion and the empirically storm track repositioning and changes to the larger scale circulation eddies because of it. But I digress... In any case, you can see it on the D10 Euro. The EPO has [ perhaps only temporarily ] abated, and the entire domain S of ~ the 50th parallel across the continent, goes above normal at 850 mb pretty quickly, despite the western mid latitude +PNA attributing to +PNAP look. Later on in the cold season a +PNA alone would be more capable of substantively maintaining a cold source but ... this early, with limited snow pack/cryosphere over Canada, "home grown" cold air masses are a struggle. By the way .. I'm not sure I buy it the EPO is going away per the Euro's extended, just using that as an example of how mid latitudes have more trouble than decades ago with 'cold in the bank.' We got to more and more so be in a reloading constancy ...which also unfortunately means a higher compression/N/stram dominant pattern and velocity saturation ...introducing other headaches.

It’s happened before in November

You know ..the more I look at this thing for next Tuesday, it's a redux of the same shit we just went through - just a more amplified version of the same damn thing. Mm. Maybe we're just in a pattern ... things tend to repeat when in a pattern.

meh...

OH I'm sorry ... I don't/didn't mean to come off as "factoid" on that. That's speculation based upon some other avenues that are, however clad...so, call it synthesizing a possible explanation/and/or supposition that when the base-line R-wave lengths are smaller, the EPO tends to dump west. Moreover, since we are not statistically in the longer R-wave time of year ( yet ) .. that's why I used the term scaffolding That said, I'm not even sure that ridge being too far west in this situation is really caused by that. It may just be the rub that it's a "west-based +PNA"

Yeeeup .... Kind of hard to release 3 billion years of geological carbon stows ...back into the reactive chemistry environment in as little as 300 years, and expect all that volatility to go on without consequence... huh? F idiots But oh, wait! When the IR ( Industrial Revolution ) took place, the first thing anyone thought was, "..We're going to make a fortune off this profligate exploitation.." and that's a human failing. The next species that climbs out of the primordial ranks to take over the planet might have some built in checks-and-balances that we never seemed to evolve when our ingenuity outpaced the natural order of ecological limitation on provisions .. Those that always dictated species' populations and their inherent vitality and health and numbers. When we added to our share, these other systems subtracted from theirs. It's all just arithmetic - 8 billion people ( no wonder ) requires a mass extinction of these other species, THEN. That probably really is more than just symbolically what is happening to this world. The earth doesn't care what species it is... but all species can't exceed 20 billion ( say ). So if we occupy 8 billion of that space, something else has to wither away.. I like that, it's a great premise of sci-fiction, probably because like all really good sci-fi, it has plausibility based in fact.

huh... No, completely illogical read on your part. The statement has 0 to do with weather numb nut -

There may also be a seasonal aspect to this.. We are still technically not into the longer wave length R-wave time of the year, such that these EPO vicissitudes may not be taking place in the best "scaffolding" ... That said, I really am strongly confident in my observation that this trough has corrected toward a shallower meridian depth coming east of the Rockies, comparing the runs from two days ago. This may be correction owing to the fact that the ridge is further west - which full circle ...may be related to the -EPO happening in a subtly less than ideal R-wave construct... Lotta of chicken and egg and complexity there.. But in the end, the trough plumbs to about Nebraska and suddenly stops in the Euro and just starts moving E... that's the ball-game if that happens. Next! Maybe it'll correct but I really believe it starts with that ridge bumping E some. If so, we start to see that trough carve deeper toward the TV and there we go.

Anyone who's abandoning this thread should not be allowed back in when the 12z guidance reverses the trend -

MJO progs are still favorable mid month ... Man, it's almost like the peregrinations of modeling efforts and tweaking over the years have wended us into a situation, almost purely as an "emergent process of a complex system"; in this case the models have emerged this skill of engineering reasons to cancel deeper cyclones. Seriously, according to CPC the MJO in both the GFS/Euro clusters, rockets through phase 6 in just two days; then, while strengthening modestly they slow the propagation down passing moderately thru phases 7/8 ... That's a cold seasonal correlation for the NP-Lakes/OV and NE regions... What's interesting is that the operational Euro and GFS are really doing everything in their physical power to flip the script to a warmer look as near as D10, seemingly fighting it.. There's really no reason in the tele's to do that, not sure why they are... interesting.

I think you and Scott ( I think it was .. ) kinda nailed it three days ago, when you were discussing the particulars with the ridge in the west. From what I've just seen of the overnight guidance, this is simplified: the ridge is too far west. Because of that, as the trough amplifies it's only going to be able to gain so much meridional depth coming east of the Rockies ( to satisfy the total L/W spacing). So it bottoms out early and the flow is stretched west-east. Which I'm not saying it will go on to verify that way; this is an eval of what the models have morphed over the last two days. But if the ridge in the west were say, 10 deg longitude ( or so ) east, the trough gets conserved in the N/S, and then you get feed-backs .. Like increased leading confluence and arming high pressure over eastern Canada ...enhancing baroclinicity ... bottom of the trough ignites low that comes up underneath and yadda yadda yadda. It's just a weird nuance in this amplitude - which who knows... It may very well go on into the history books that way. It's too bad for storm enthusiasts, because this is a rare time that the flow over the Gulf looks compressible enough to me. We'll get a +3 SD ridge over the Dakotas in two weeks, with a 50 v-max diving SE over ORD, ...whith 588 heights over Atlantic Georgia - you think this is pisser, wait 'till you see the toaster bath that causes. But, the teleconnectors can't elucidate that type of particular idiosyncrasy - all they can do is signal interesting time periods and then it is hoped such details remain better behaved. Because the truth is, the west-east biased version of the +PNA/-EPO isn't physically impossible, within the confines of an otherwise tele-based promising correction event - which is pure statistics. In a way, it's really no different than a west or east -based NAO: both are negative( positive) but they have most discerned different impacts on eastern Canada/NE U.S. As far as the Lakes cutter... I'm not even seeing that much frankly in some of these guidance'. Some of them are instantiating the low over the eastern Lakes on the polar boundary - not sure that's same thing but... heh. I mean it's not like the low cut threw anywhere doing that.

I expanded on that... I do that often... write something and then hammer it with afterthoughts -sorry

Not to be snarky but I don't agree that population is the problem in among its self. This may seem totally obvious because, well .. .it is, but, it's what the population does that is the problem - not the population. There is an important distinction. I'm sure those involved in any such debate are aware.. And perhaps there is a 'built in' assumption, one that is cynical where they're musing back and forth within the predilection that humanity is incapable of a non-profligate exploitation way of existence. I could buy that ... I almost like that - almost. Greed first! Evidence certainly seems to suggest so. To that, I have friends directly keyed into the circuit of Boston area university scientists, and they all agree ... the problem is more clearly a sociological one, more so than a geo-physical one. Change attitudes... and the latter takes care of its self. It's still just the population doing it. If there were 8 billion people on this planet all living green - no problem. That can change? But, people need to get burned to believe in the fire. That's the biggest problem with this ... the specter of climate change moves at a pace below the threshold of human senses. People can't feel, see, taste or touch or hear it; though we are seeing that beginning to change with striking video. Still, it's not in people's back yards enough. 'Soon as people feel the nausea, they'll stop sipping the cool-aide that it's okay to profligate - hell, begin to realize that the way we've done this thing since the Industrial Revolution is even profligate in the first place. Generations have now lived and died, tucked inside the IR years since that great Human evolutionary turn begin to usurp Human societies... and their culture knows no other way.