Typhoon Tip

Heh... it was a heavy-handed dark satirical take. Unfortunately, like all humor, does carry a modicum of truth/reality - I don't know. We've also had more tor events and reporting in recent years - probably owing to the fact there is more popularization to drama and natural events ... lending to more pervasive public awareness. I mean, in 1953, I've read accounts where it was clear, those watching had no f'ing clue what they were seeing; comparing the generations of lore and the general culture back then, where/when public notification policies were formulated, to now? The world is a different place... the general ability to access 'wall cloud' images and film, and just have an inkling is a presumption at this point. It's more likely that a guy can identify a suspicious real-time cloud motion/pattern in the sky, and then ...a town loses ten trees and a roof .. a calved off church steeple, next to a soccer field where some handsome athlete(s) gets injured, and his/or her negligent law-accessing, self-absolving unscrupulous parents ultimately raise taxes for everyone to pay for their conversion of that kid's health and vitality into a monetary settlement ... when if they had not assume their asses would be wiped in every turn of their f'n reality and bothered to check the forecast they might have not had their kid on the field at 5:10 pm in 84/67 with a 120 kt 500 mb jet fisting in from the west.... you know ... So, the same sky is producing the same shit it did in 1955

It's because we live in an overtly litigious culture, that's why. You take civility of hard working, sacrificing... principled, virtuous people, feed and masturbate them with surplus over the contiguity of generations, eventually the erosion of those ethics is inevitable. Look everywhere in Humanity's history. It is empirically shown to be unavoidable, whether reflected in cute childhood parables, painted on cathedrals walls and ceilings, or thematically arced in the greatest literary works of all time. Civilities, as an integration of the individuals, eventually sloths when in realms of abundance - invariably loses those ethics that were needed to construct those same relative utopias. It's part of the catch -22 ... the same power of enginuity is not sustainable? When in a Universe that never wastes anything as a Natural Law, the ingenuity that it takes to construct a society of relative opulence, no longer is needed once that opulence is experienced. We didn't evolve the the checks and balances of virtuosity and morality along the way, or at the same rate, as did the power to create all this dazzling (faux) supremacy over Nature. So... the Natural Law kicks in, and the virtue of its sustainability escapes the users; it is not immediately sensed or seen as necessary - an unnecessary use of energy to maintain it - it decays... Cyclic that way, I suppose. So, what is materializing out of it all this, other than a cocktail of events that signal an eventual end to civility as we know it, is a population of participation-trophy-seeking, self-aggrandizing, 'I'm special" nimrods - sound familiar? A little tongue-in-cheekism there... But, if people rolled up sleeves ( or had to...) in life, and earned their figurative orgasms ...they'd be more humble and forgiving, and in realization of the stench of their own - as is? They believe they don't have to smell their own shit - sloppy metonymy for being disconnected from the foundation of their luxuries. We've come to use the law to protect this delusion of expectancy and entitlement that results.. that's why. It's part of the decay of society, a sign of civility in trouble when litigious self-absorption starts dictating and codifying policy - In the 'tornado paradigm' people have succeeded in monetary winfals by mashing up law with dumb-down 'juries of our peers' ... leading to plaintiff cash-ins. So, the policy has to now overstate those threats. It's a "disclaimer defense against the tsunamis of the feckless". Greedy developers build communities on a flood plains and veritable tornado lab landscapes, and then in rush the me-first, multi-generational, convenience addled-stupefied cultural folk of blinded lust home-buyers. Inevitable flood comes, and the the feckless folk that didn't have the virtue or the patience therein to vet general risk assessment ( let alone circumstantially in a position to even suspect risk at all) .. don't have to worry - there's this litigation to save their asses. And we don't even need to build on the 'plains and the 'labs, either - the attitude is such a force in culture now, that any inconvenience becomes a winfal to the unprincipled -

Looks like I may be wrong about the Logan flipping off -shore late deal. The gradient is too S. Combining that with the thermal balancing maintains a SE inflow at shore points. Great sat/vis loop of fisherman's spirit bending around Cape Ann... bet you can see the translucence apparitional shreds as they haunt the early summer sky ..back lit by the sun.

even as far inland as Ayer here...about 10 mi as the crow flies west of the NW arc of I-495 ... this about the terminus of the average breeze-banged day ...the cu seem to know not to develop and get scoured out, even tho by the time the momentum of the boundary is waxing it almost doesn't feel cooler. \ T-sensy but you can see the scour line here: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

seabreeze perhaps ... "front" doesn't have the mechanics ...just sayn' but yeah. You can see it on hi res imagery why you don't live there if you like summer. lol..

I got 87, 88 and 89 now within 2 clicks of mi casa and all have DPs 67 or higher. I walk down the street with that 5 mph zephyr deep wind chill and it is definitely quite warm/sensibly. To be fair, we have not had DPs over 60 with combining air T of 84 at any point since...I dunno, last September? ...not where I have been.. So, this may be giving me a bit of a faux impression of things - still... it feels hotter than any of the ap/NWS site readings as of last check. 84/62 ...

I got a Met buddy down south of ORH in Auburn Ma ....he has a higher end tech set up at his place - backyard .. yup His neighborhood's 600' el. Just txt'ed with him and he's saying yes, the DP graph dips and correlates with the gusting pattern of the wind - that's fits Brian and my intuitive idea about mixing proficiency. He does, however, say that 5 to 7 F movements are not that uncommon - that's a pretty big spread based on pooling alone. Fascinating. It's a micro-Met study thing -

Until the wind blows. That's Brian's partial point; the tarmacs at ap's are going to be wide up spanses of better exposure to wind and mixing. Circumstantially, that means that if a gust of wind penetrates the relative denser neighborhood setting ... you almost wonder if those back-yard rural stations might have dips in their graphs more -

mm.. Both fire stations at Ayer and Shirly center are 70 and 67 respectively, and there are no tarmacs around either. Ayer is probably better mixed out of the two, as that setting has no overhang and it's sky in all directions over that site... But Shirley's is in the nador of kettle topography with woods nearby ...you'd think it'd be the other way around.

LOL ...

NWS sites 64, home stations to 71 type of layout would be my guess. NWS is calibrated, but so to ( supposedly .. ) are these home techs. It's an interesting disparity that seems to pop more in the late spring through early autumn where home averages run wet. It could be legit, but over-top conditioning. Like, most NWS sites are situated near or over tarmacs at ap's. Where as Joe Schmo's state of the art home station with a wind ana propeller and gomer stat hardons might be set up near gardens where they've just run the hose under a blazing Tuscon sun all day. There's that, but also just being more foliage and greenery and in general exposure to soil moisture probably legit gooses it. Those are probably real DPs and the airport tarmacs sort do civility a miss-rep ... it's too consistent not to be some value there. Either way... it certainly provides for spirited arguments -

actually ...said momentum may be a south wind so...heh... maybe not at Logan itsefl

probably see some orange-hued distant TCU lining along the Berk's hi res vis imagery shows some pop-corning already along the spine and that's typical in the initial post-warm frontal air mass - it's like sensy to it's own newly arrived DP/theta-e budget and the solar jolting that's going on briefly over stimulates SB CAPE... which by the way, that is some seriously unadulterated pig-eyed starlight lazing going on out there. Thru a bermuda blue sky, too ... This is continental warm sector air, mind you. This has gotta be Industry-shut-down clear-air attributed, because that sky is definitely vastly more purely blue than is more typical in this sort of air mass arrival in New England - if it were any more pure, we'd be on the moon! We are the exit point of continental bio-mist-Industrial fart mix, and spanning multi-generations. (heh) skies typically have a pal blue value in this/these sort of air masses. Interesting. I am also noticing the 12z FOUS NAM has 850s warmer as we've come upon this air mass and are finally in it. It's 15.5 C over Logan on a 230 deg wind, with <50% RH at LGA/ALB/BOS triangulum in the model's typical cloud heights above the 800 mb level, and nothing on sat preventing superb heating realization. I suspect MOS busts here folks. Scott may be right about those upper 80s... I thought that was pricey but now that I see these initial conditions in situ I'm not as opposed to this over-achieving over decks and parking lots, and downtown thoroughfares where NWS cleverly puts thermometer houses - you know where civility actually lives and breaths. Logan's in one of those days where it heats a bit interior..mixes modest momentum down for offshore flow...then the wind flips out there late afternoon and their temp bounces I bet. Meanwhile, cross the bridge in Cambridge it's 88.7 F

That ending bold is key.. otherwise, a morning sounding of -3 C will super adiabatically get annihilated as powered by insolation; it will literally force/transform the column on the fly toward a warmer profile, during the afternoon. I mean the misnomer is that the -3 C at 850 yielded 73 F at the surface. NO, the -3 ended up by solar heating-forced mixing to be +2, and then that ended up 73...etc..etc... If there's cake cu forget it Anyway, I've likely written more than anyone will read this morning but I personally think that whole trough is destined to modulate toward this being a moot discussion purpose anyway. It think we're going to find that it gets flattened and more progressive open structured. I don't think the Euro is going to get it's way in the latter mid and extended range with that look, either. And all this prooobably translates to less -5 SD 850 mb cold incursion to begin with, but we'll see. I need this one inside of 5 days to believe that. I agree re the Euro over doing it

Just one Met's opinion here ... but if we're discussing the trough D5-6-7 ...my belief is that the models were too N-S in their depictions over prior versions. The 00z cycle 'hinted' a correction necessarily beginning. I think that a trough is likely to transgress southern Can/Lakes to NE ...but I suspect it is progressive and more longitudinal in characteristic .. perhaps ultimately progressing on up and lifting the escape latitudes of the westerlies back over or even N of New England. I think the longer term signal is a sort of more 06 GFS operational in nature, frankly ... just because it is a better fit for the negative PNA that's trying to set up heading into the first week of June as portrayed in its one ensemble derivatives... The CDC has the index ( waning in/for its seasonal correlation significance as it may be ...) robustly flipping phase signs (negative), and the EPO is hugely positive...so, the Pacific/North American seasonal-lag folding pattern is being compensated for in that signal just about diametrically ... The CPC isn't quite as clearly discerned, but does have at least a modest heat signal to help foot .. I'm not sure which agency is more useful, and/or if there is a seasonal usefulness, either. The CDC uses low level wind flux anomalies for their orthogonal function analysis. Contrasting, the CPC uses the mid level geopotential height anomalies to calculate theirs. The thing is, the winds at the low levels are instructed by the latter ( ultimately..) as atmospheric physics show... so why they differ at times like this is bit of a head scratch. It may be domain-geometric ..I dunno. Still, the blend is a warm signal... No the Euro's meridional flow structure that also stalls indeterminately, either. I have no idea what the EPS signaling in the PNA or NAO...but I've found that it seldom offers a much variant complexion than the operational version - oh the arrogance. So, with all that in mind ... I think stretching the flow... and/or somewhere between a modest to robust -PNAP is warranted and that we should see more subtropical ridging arcs in and below the mid latitudes over the North America as a correction vector.

Given the source the benefit of the doubt, that's may just have been a sloppy way to remind the audience that the sun offsets at this time of year ... and that CAA terms don't dictate the diurnal temperature variance as a singular forcing agent like they do alone, in January. And "if" that is the connotation he/she has in mind, that is true ... a minus 3, 850 mb thermal layout on a NW d-slope flow of dry unabated open sky may as well be situating everything under god's eye ... 2 inches from the immitter of an microwave oven; it will destroy any12z soundings that start days with any will 'look' that seasonally challenges ( to put it nicely...). But, I also want the whole deep layer circulation synoptic handling to be inside of D5 on this one. I see some semblance there that Euro's depth is overdone... having nothing to do with Crank' methodology ... One, the model over plumbs troughs, and over-domes ridges over eastern NA routinely in the late mid and extended ranges. This is a personal observation that seems to not show up in the verification scores of that model, ...and I don't know why. But I am operating with a striking 100% perfect score at assessing/taking anything the Euro sells in those post day-5 ranges with a fairly large dose of Kevinism marketing strategy... Kidding but I do pretty much count on it over selling 'looks' in that range, and more times than not ..it normalizes a bit. Sometimes more obvious than others...but important amounts when it crosses the day-5 (~) temporality. Two, not that cross-guidance support is the be-all but... I do think that when the GEFs signal at CDC is a robust heat signal heading abruptly into the first week of June, and the CPC version of that time spand is at least a modest heat signal ... (CDC+CPC)/2 = almost no support for the Euro's depth...especially not its weird attempt to set up a semi-permanent trough over NE ... so achored that NASA's probably is pre-fabricating it's monthly State Of The Climate press-release for June to be -10 SD metaphastic attack on specifically Kevin's sex life... Yeah, I'm gonna go with that being over constructed there. Hate to say, but the 00z GGEM is a better agreement with the GEFs teleconnectors... But then of course the seasonal caveat emptor of the teleconnectors from any guidance cluster is that the correlation spreads tend to break down ... particularly in the PNA -related ones, during the warm season. And in the Euro's defense...the MJO is strengthening in Phases 7-8-1 ... it'd be a nice look in January. I've noticed this...it seems the models don't like seasonal-physical forcing on the hemisphere. Look at the difference between the GFS's operational appeal in the extended, beteween the 00z and 06z ...it's like you turn off seasonal awareness in the "brain" of the model engine, and you get the 00z flop back to February ...06z the swich goes back on.

NE Mass is packed in ... If you hopped in the car and screwed down 495 you'd hit abruptly brighter skies at I-93 ... and the temp probably pops 70. 70 and rising here and it was 64 and hour ago, and 59 or so an hour before that...

SW zephyr direction with leaves on trees flipping over toward the NE ... sun out in splashed...temp bounced to 71 with Bermuda blue patches in all directions... at 10 am it was 54 with drizzle and utterly boundless opacity for ceilings. Saved -

suns out ... nice rescue! drizzle over - ... 70 ... 74 is doable. Wunder' DPs are 60 on average and it definitely 'feels' more humid than we've been use to recently. This day is really likely to end dichotomy to the morning

Yeah...it is improving... I was just musing how this seems almost warm frontal in the way it's protractedly taking its own sweet ass time calving the clouds open and bouncing the temps...but it is doing so. The long sun arc of late May helps, too. But vis does show dark regions opening and also there is a discerned ... more S to N trend to the general motion...so it's all a process to an end that features 3 days of 80 to 85 with 66 F DPs beginning tomorrow. The Euro 'hinted' at a warm frontal look yesterday ...what's interesting is that the WPC has a warm from over western NY/PA...but I got to think it's really smearing in reality. Lots of backyard 79/61's in SE and eastern NY already

Weather plays reality games it sometimes seems ... interesting. Today is behaving just like a warm frontal passage. Cloudy and raw morning with sporadic drizzle in still wind, ...slowly dries under lifting ceilings that finally erode enough for splashed sun... Meanwhile, temps risen under your nose...It was 51 and wet at sun up..now, 68. Happened to notice some brightening..step outside, different world than just two hours ago. Next thing you know, 83/64 on the door step ...eastern NY deck and driveway obs, and the rest of the region tomorrow. We may make 70 with DPs nearing 60 later this afternoon. The Euro actually hinted at an amorphous warm boundary yesterday ...shoot I forgot that. yeah But you look at the surface weather obs and there is no warm front being analyzed anywhere around - it does this in the winter with cold acceleration too. It's like there's a sub-defined ... like "pre frontogenesis" of warm/cool fronts coming thru ... perhaps just not recognized parametrically by Met science ...

Excuse the petty boasting look of it … but, I did warn y’all that this would happen for today .. although I admit I didn’t think it would even be this pervasive. I was a little bit under sold on it. I thought it be strata in marine mist jammed up against the ORH hills/eastern mass but this really kind of filled in and turned into a larger synoptic butt bang. This is all happening because that high retreated east in that SE. It’s halfway to England and it’s reaching a tentacle e winds back all the way. Heh there’s also some high clouds Fanning over the top now left over from mcs

This 'heat' does appear more slated to be 'hot' for central and NNE up through the ST L region... We don't have the SW heat expulsion and the traditional W component to the wind and all that... We have heights ballooning over the NE conus for a couple clicks ... and with solstice sun blazing away, thickness can then expand unimpeded and so the air mass home-modulates above normal. Still looks like the region could deal with the first 70 F sack sticker DP air mass out of this... Then, what originally looked like a protracted pulsed heat phase ...now looks like the models are searching for any reason plausible to ablate the heat and regress the season - I swear...it seems the modelers have parameterized the base-line to be winter to off-set GW some times. Heh... I do think that the Euro run is embarrassing because it is in pure violation of basic planetary physical forcing in not just inserting dry air open sky -850s under a June sun, but then blithely lingering the air mass for two days under that same sun ...strains believability too far to be acceptable.

This BD cool shot may max out its affect tomorrow midnight thru morning ... Dawn folk wake up in interior -east SNE to strata deck jam packing into the Worcester hills and a nasty pal to the air. The wind is attempting to just begin the veering process so that may limit the inland spread, but you could tell ...all day over SE shore points there was fisherman's spirit ripping west .. those partially translucent strata shreds that kite west over the beaches ... you see that, you know your chokin' it at sundown and sure enough, last vis frames showed it coalesce and spread to I-95. NAM actually has QPF at Logan from drizzle.... But here's the weird thing ..there's an amorphous ..warm boundary in the euro ... really seems to show up in the pressure contours closer to 00z but.. it could mean a late high type day... It does this sometimes with these BD scenario air masses - they bottom out 12 hours before they flip around all at once. I just have noted these tedious observations about them over the last 30 years ...mainly because they are loathsome and so one tends to remember. This one was really really fortunate to us though, that we didn't get 52 F drizzle cake skies for three days.

Yeah ... case in point. I mean that's obviously overdone ( uh..) but at even half that amplitude it may verify more than not. I wonder if we’re like in an interim phase along the ongoing curve of CC ... where changes in the general circulation eddy for the next years ablate our summers while winters get speed sheared to death… And then who knows what emerges after that