Typhoon Tip

So the 0ZGFS is getting interesting for the 11th …again

now'd be a good time for those plasmoids to start firing off their war of the world beams

heh ..snark speculation: because the general scientific ambit is likely inherently opposed to what elan musk has become in recency ?

both approaches can be right right that nothing should be 'given up on' right that that one is hopelessly lost

it's pretty amazing looping this .. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-met&rh=2025010312&fh=loop&r=na&dpdt=&mc= that system runs up to about ... 55/50 or so, hits the nao wall and then rockets due w some 2000 mi, clear to hudson bay, in like 30 hrs now that's what we call a retrograding low!

this'll roll eyes haha 17-20th looks interesting

yeah looping that/cinema makes that more obvious why that's taking place. at least for me ... not sure what the other mets think of this, but the western ridge aspect of this particular flavor of +pna is too far west. what's happening in the nearer term ...there's an eject out of the ne pacific that abruptly turns into an inside slider ... turning s down cali. those then do one of two things: a, they then turn east across the sw and then parent low pressure genesis ~ from colorado to texas ...which depending on the n/stream or not, will morph onto do whatever it does over the eastern continent. b, they then stall and/or shear out the sw; the subsequent environment down stream does not realize or as much low pressure genesis. what determines a or b comes down to what happens with the western ridge once the inside slider turns back e over the sw. if the ridge starts to giga toward the east, it will eject that sw aspect/wave space is conserved and east it all comes if the ridge does not bump and or retros even further... it doesn't. what you're seeing there is some form of b

it's a difference for the 10/11th period than it was a week ago. (put that old idea to bed ) i've noticed the last 3 or 4 cycles of oper. versions have been sending more n/stream. the southern stream just can't seem to be consistently - if at all - involved, but there's a tendency now that wouldn't take a lot more to be a more of a shallow latitude development, quick hitting event out of that mess. nj model low of sorts

one thing i've noticed also is that we are collectively ( as a group of return engagers in a medium that we probably should all think about moving away from and getting involved with an actual life that will leave a meaningful legacy behind eh hm...) dropping the ball on some very basic synoptic stuff - like 101 stuff that doesn't require a met degree or even a very skilled hobbyist/amateur. like the western ridge... no one is talked about that that i can recall lately. when not completely wrong it's been significantly idiosyncratic in every run i've seen spanning the last 7 days. low bar stuff like that...then, when the other shoe falls on an ugly model run there's kind of only melancholy. a little better leading prep, between that and the nao nuances ...etc...etc... it might protect those that are powerless from letting this shit affect them on a personal level -

from my pad over to Ray's ... we're in kind of a secondary screw zone. like the dildo's target butt was occupied so we were the next choice. lol not sure about RAY ...just going by my memory of his bitching. he can chime in on that... anyway, some of those years, like 2020 ... others have a bit of a bias ( i think ) perception that it was passable. they might have just experienced better. perhaps different standards. i did not make season normal that year here. that's a requirement for me, otherwise it's all failure - just a matter of how more or less egregious it was.

yeah, "it's idiosyncrasies and circumstantial devil -" folks should learn about that quoted string - ... even this time, i remember us discussing/wondering about suppression.

been over this concept 'till the cows came home, too but ... mm, it's probably psycho-babbledee more dire now because there was some pretty big snow years since 2000 ... that's gonna be a pretty big distorting influence. it may very well be that this is a part of cc and the new paradigm moving forward is consummate ass banging winters that cause a diaspora of civility by mid century ( haha )... but, that doesn't account for the fact that big snow seasons will taint perceptions and send the entitlement higher - that's where we are the main cause of all disappointment in life is the failure to realize expectation.

i think we've discussed this in the past. either way ... the big -nao 2010 season that brought 'snowmeggeddon' to the d.c. - phl corridor was a lesson in not hoping for the -nao, when/if not learning about it's idiosyncrasies and circumstantial devil - not saying this is the whole season but, looking at that nam solution at 12z... d.c. would have probably 2 to 3X's my seasonal total by a 108 hours. i'm sitting at a paltry 4.75" here... granted i'm in a bit of a hole relative to other regions... but still -

ot, i just completed installation of my solar panels. the roof area isn't quite large enough to fit another rack, so i'll have to be slaved to the grid still. but the upshot is that the electric-econ account is a zero-sum-game thing... if your generating power and dumping it back into the grid, that offset still exists and ultimately you're paying less for electricity to a macro provider most importantly to me ( other than that morality of going more and more green and lowering one's carbon footprint) it releases the "ngrip" economic nuts clench. no longer purchasing power through that legitimized enron ... with increasing areal coverage of solar parks, even the inclusion of wind farms ... to mention, private sector adoption of panel/power generation, ngrid was beginning to incur economic losses - so... naturally, they shift those losses onto anyone that is not employing alternate/renewable power. what this means is that society has already crossed a threshold where we are being financially punished by not going green. it's kind of interesting how greed and capitalism kind of creating it's own quasi carbon tax - anyway, all that and spin/rationalization aside, winter is a horrible season if it is a 20s and 30s and endlessly dry. it may be my personal druthers, but i just rather not even live here if it is going to be devoid of interesting meteorology, because that weather has zero redemption value for me. and with the above interests then taking over, i'm likely to check out on this year earlier than my usual earliness ( mid feb), because i'd rather start spinnin' my electrical dial in the other way to see it all in action.

count down to ending the solar minimum, t-minus 4.75 weeks ...

also when it’s a stationary postage stamp summit cloud lol

It’s starlink

anyway ... another aspect that is hugely useful in explaining things for me is that the western ridge in these operational models have really been struggling to gasther the size and scale they were implied to achieve by the ensemble means, very fantastic even eye-popping appeals. this gefs mean .... ...from last friday, for the 9th, is poorly represented by this operational gfs from 12z this morning obviously we don't expect them to be perfectly matched, but regardless of cause ...the flow is tilting positive here in this recent run, both relative to the earlier gefs, and in general, and it's fucking shit up.

oh yeah... i mean the block? that's gonna be the case in 1960 ... you can't sit an elephant's ass down on a trampoline and then have anything left to bounce the flow

these are just my thoughts - not trying to be argumentative. it's not just positively tilted troughs ... ( a bit reductive on my part). the study i posted is an academically accredited/refereed work. the jets (definitely the nfl team!) are increasing at farther north latitude. plus, there's increasing velocities - also scienced. can did that up too... which imposes increasing shear, disrupted phase mechanics ( dx exceeds dy too much in the differential trough morphology), general negative interference (non linear ). global precipitation is elevating everywhere all over the world. that's ambient +d(wv) - which is also not merely attributed, but is mathmetically a rather low bar calculation for a junior Met student. in the same vein ..i'm not sure positive vs negative trough orientation 'tendency' can really be crossed up with qpf verification very easily. that's a torturous tedium for a red headed grad student t.a. not much of a refutation in my mind, anyway. positive tilted troughs generate rain and snow. in fact, long duration overrunning events tend to be l/w's that are significantly tilted/positively sloped. also, needle thread storms were on the right exit region of jet core with the trough lagging back clear to almost the arklatex.

if you have fast jet's n of you in the mean, than your building heights underneath the jets...that certainly displaces/slopes the ridge. that's just true. look, these studies are there for people to use at some point, in a practicum. it makes no use for them to just exist. we can keep being skeptical of attribution but that strikes me as passive denial - which i'm not even going to approach. that's just objectively false

i've personally observed this trending phenomenon, but i can assure you ...it's more than purely anecdotal. this article from Phys.org ( a nice site that offers paraphrased content across multiple scientific disciplines ... ) is among others that have been popping up. https://phys.org/news/2024-12-longer-climate-impact-atmospheric-circulation.html there's several paragraphs there, forwarded from this source: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024AV001297 "..Already-detected signals of climate change affecting circulation include a poleward shift of jet streams in the lower troposphere and a weakening of the Northern Hemisphere jet stream and storm track. The dynamics of some signals are understood and have been ..." polarward shift in jet tendencies is quite consistent with increased westerly momentum above mid latitudes - but folks can read it

i know that. i started a thread for it because it was interesting - the lack of cold air made it (understandably) less interesting to this group. haha. it's in mind.. but, please keep in mind that 'tendency' in principle allows for distracting outliers ... it's about deck and dice loading. if we're tending to rotate troughs positive more so than in history, we started getting more failures kind of a thing. i'd rather have an objective limitations identified that are different from the super productive, impossible to ameliorate 'oh god oh god oh god' thing that gets posted.

you know what's funny about this image? ...someone posted something similar to this from some other ... oh i think it was 12 panels of the individual eps members maybe, but they also had that misery negative exposure - what's funny is that if you go back several days and dig up any of those big bomb blizzards that were there, it's just about diametric to that image. we've been yo-yoing between history, vs histrionic personality disorders. lol

it's just like the great lakes. i can remember so many painful days as a lad in/around Kalamazoo Michigan winters where it would be unadulterated purity of blue sky above ...while 10 mi away there was solid wall of merged low top cbs - under witch white out conditions.