Typhoon Tip

I couldn't agree more with the first in the series facets, related to being cognizant of background global SST anomaly. I'll add to that "...Since the 1990s..." with an op ed: The recent global 'warm burst' ( which is still being analyzed for veracity vs instrumentation, granted - ) that too unprecedented form during the Feb-early Apr period, seemed to coincide with the demise of the -ONI - perhaps related, perhaps not. It may present certain challenges to straight up linear assessment. 1 ...The SOI is (albeit weakening..) still technically in the positive mode, which in addition to being [actually] not correlated with the warm ENSO - NINO 4 vs 3.4 VS 1+2 quadrature, notwithstanding - the deltas were behaving/weakening like a typical dying La Nina as of April. 2022 +0.8 +1.8 +2.9 +2.8 +2.4 +2.8 +1.3 +1.7 +2.7 +2.8 +0.5 +3.5 2023 +2.3 +2.3 +0.3 +0.4 ( Jan Feb Mar Apr ... ) The present warmth that is noted everywhere associated with the 'warm burst' phenomenon, precedes(ed) the SOI ( Southern Oscillation Index is a very institutional/physically clad means for assessing the state the llv mass flux associated with the ENSO phases. Positive pressure anomalies --> negative ENSO, and vice versa. ) This all raises question over whether the present warming is really El Nino onset. 2 ... The "effectiveness" of the ENSO toward forcing/modulating the climate becomes questionable. The last "super Nino" that occurred was noted as being only tepidly disruptive around the typical climate expression avenues of the larger environmental manifold - above or below medium impact. This "absorption" phenomenon by the total system, lowers gradient between the tropics and the mid latitudes ... which changes the triggers in the total physically integrated sense. In other words, the warmer than normal total oceanic space out side, as it is already quasi coupled to the atmosphere, may be subsuming some of the mechanical forcing of ENSO.

This article vacillates between cringe-worthy, and hand throwing hilarity https://phys.org/news/2023-05-meteorologists-climate-misinfo-surge.html

76/44 ... one thing that sticks out is that the quality of "blue" in the blue sky now sans the smoke. Kinda of forget how laser hot the sun is

I kinda feel like we've been running through our quota on those, actually... I mean there's some subjectivity to that notion/judgement, and it also may not have been the same up near you as it has been down near Rt 2 ... but we've qualified something like 4 out of the last 6 days.

Next week...

It goes from light rain cool retarded murk to a super nova of sun on a dime - just cleared here like a light switch

It's possible too that as we get closer that trough will shallow out some more ... I hope. I don't need another rural Massachusetts conversation in ear shot describing why Trump is being treated unfairly because there's no way climate change is real when it's this cold in May ... completely salient connective reasoning that goes on in these towns west of 495 - zonk~

We may not get through the +PNA --> +PNAP continent without consequence entirely... Next Wednesday with sub 540 hydrostats draped down to LI with Montreal Express circulation synoptics, doesn't exactly inspire summery weather. LOL ... Looks like it rotates out quickly because already Thursday afternoon tries to recover by some 10 of 15 F for high temperatures. That's not bad though considering what the 15th through 23rd looked like it might be whence eval a week ago. I feel like instead, we're getting off with lesser charges over the original conviction of murder by drowning in shits ... By the way, there's an emerging signal for warmer weather after the 22nd ...particularly the 25th of the month. Telecon spread along with "synoptic cadence" suggest that.

Just ended here. Managed to dark gray the street but no puddles.

spc has New England in a General assignment for today .. yup. has that feel. hoping for some cloud geeking later.

that's just dew, dude - haha

Lol, bit more than a light shower, huh - Yeah, there was a couple of glaciated toes sticking up over that mass as it evac SE of here and I wondered if there were some cores there. Not surprised. I'm wondering if this morning spuge might leave some theta-e in 850 to 700 mb to help seed towers later? When the sun comes out - if sat is right - it will burst out with intensity because that looks like a pristine air mass immediately behind. I imagine that setting as 'summer RH b.o.' melded with lilacs and maple blossoms, and crispy tower or two. I love that phase of summer development time of year.

This happened yesterday too, or something like it... A band of what looks like an MCS only it isn't? comes racing down. It put down some light showers in the area around 2:30 to 5 pm ... and left us cleared out for a smoky sun set. Temps here went from 82 to 71 back to 76... This one is just timed earlier in the day. Looks like it'll clear pretty abruptly and go sun sear sans the smoke on the back side. That's one thing that sticks out on sat.. the smoke seems to be scoured out by that series of weak impulses perhaps. So we may rebound rather quickly if/when the bright bursts forth in an hour. But then ... does that small amount of moisture input towers later

Right now we cloudy with light rain ... heh, at least on radar. But it is sun stumped cloudy and stuck at 57 - which is above normal for this particular hour, ironically. Sat loop wants it to blow through in an hour ... but it will retard things. May have bring 'em down a few clicks if this hangs around much later

Unsure ... I'm not very familiar with the climatology in that region of the continent. Just in sketch it does seem a bit early to put up 850's in the 22 C range... However, that area has a pretty high surface sigma so ... it may not translate to the same as a 22 C would over BDL or HFD?

Yeah I’ve been watching that … wondering if another hot burst might be suggested but the antecedent leading circumstance may or may not be like 2021 i feel that anomaly is the result of the signal heat we were originally tracking for ‘after the first week of May’ back in April. Just ended up materializing there… Presently the PNA is negative.

Right ..I joked about it, '..any takers?' when that came out. as in sarcastically - all these models seem to do this... they try to take the seasonal change out of the models and end up regressing a couple ... three weeks back in climatology time ... sometimes all the way back to late winter, the deeper they are allowed to process. By day 10? spring has no hope of competing - haha.

Wiz' et al ... ..regional LIs have snuck into the margin instability range. West wind under NW at 500 mb is modestly unstable too, and upstream there are mid lvl shower clusters moving suspiciously like an MCS already.. There's also QPF dappled around the charts.

Up here along Rt 2 in N-central Ma ... It should have read 74, not 75 - didn't see that when submitting but, warm either way. Enough local home sites on Wunder all in the 72 to 75 range at 9:40 to question the machine numbers at that hour, seeing as they've been capped at 79s... We're 80 to 82 at most local sites now, including KFIT.

I mean it’s 75 now .. at 9:40, and MAV/MET cap at 79 .. 80 heh.

I would plan also on machine numbers being 2-3? shy of maxes too across all sites, today.

50 to 73 so far.

We're gonna have to hear from the robust +PNA slated to occur between this weekend and next weekend ... It's not fully committed to a summer regime - this two or three-day warm stint is kind of the synoptic/symbolic equivalent of 'fake warmth' - a nimrod expression as it is ... We're in a kind of large scale COL between a back exerting (albeit weakening) -NAO flow construct, compressing against Pacific jet. We happened to end up in a good space between. Then, May/solar processed air that despite being NW in origin ... has been sans CAA. But that stasis is ending ... it's kind of counter intuitive but the neutralization of the NAO structure ...then, the onset amplitude in the +PNAP associated with said +PNA will likely resume cold air masses passing through SE Canada. The models have been onto this for a long while. I suspect "summer" that isn't synoptic fake may be on the far side of that week's long last hurrah winter pattern trying to resist seasonal change. And it is a winter look ... it just won't mean winter cold. The other aspect is that the trough over eastern N/A is likely to be mainly chilly N of the 40th parallel. It's prooobabkly going to shallow some, not atypical for the models to back off those as they tend to be over amped anyway.

Solid 40 F diurnal spread today. Nice! 36 --> 76 boom... And, that busted MOS by 4 to 5 deg. If that's any indicator for potential, tomorrow may be sneaky quite warm. MET/MAV are both 77 to 81 between BDL and BED sites ... I think that's going to be 81 to 84's and maybe favoring the higher end.