Typhoon Tip

If I may add a little to this… Similar logic: I don’t really even care if we miss an event in the first two weeks of December when we’re looking up the mt at an avalanche of possibilities - seasonally yeah some years are really really bad… They just don’t “avalanche” but point is there’s three months or possibly four to work things out

Yeah we’ll … it’s always been a possibility with this. I realize you’re kidding but the laws of physics and nature don’t become irrelevant – the NAO will tend to relax at some point - it won’t sit there like a brick in the atmosphere. So even if that one compresses it us not likely they all will thereafter but then again, there’s no guarantee the NAO will even be a factor well out in time. The ensemble suggested it will last a while though. Point is it will pulse in and out. The good systems will happen when it’s in d(NAO)

I don’t think anybody required caution flags in the first place so not sure where that’s coming from?

Yeah man the number of individual GEF members that are flat out showing a strong East Coast system presentation between the 12th and the 15th has increased over the last couple of cycles in the 12z series. unfortunately… 10 days is vastly too early to start a thread to put it nicely. That would be interesting though wouldn’t it? If we actually do come up with a decent event in that timeframe – it would be interesting because there’s basically no predictive model skill during this recent time, yet we’ve been watching that for a long time.

This may seem kind a bush but… This is one of those situation‘s were the colorization of these charts is a value add. If one looks at that region immediately astride the Delmarva there, notice how it’s slightly darker than south of Nova Scotia? If we loop through these three days in question you can see that darkens and then lightens as comes back out in time. So that suggests that the mean or blend may be deepening more than just the heights in that region - it is implied possibility.

That’s a piece of shit. you’re telling us that we should rather want to deal with the thread the needle paranoid anxiety attack…? Man you got a dark heart hahaha. Dude I’m totally kidding, but nah. I’d like to see a slowing breaking wave underneath our latitude with a nice park high pressure north of Maine that’s what you want to look for

Although in my defense… I didn’t bring that up I was just responding to somebody else and like I said in that post it was tongue-in-cheek? Hey man melt away …like I said melts our great entertainment; the more angry somebody is the funnier it is to watch them. Muah hahahaha

A primitive version of that kind of “forecast system attempting to outthink the models” took place before the 1997 December 23 snow bomb. Remember the, at the time, ETA model, was forecasting a thermal profile like -1+2+4 at Logan, 980 to sfc For some reason all the models had the surface temperature even in interior going above freezing and the entire event was also drastically under with QPF, BTW. But as it were …it got 19-like cold at night and then suddenly right at dawn the clouds advanced all at once and we “cold capped” Not 1035 but there was like a 1028 Mbar high park ideally just north west of Maine. Forecast from just 12hrs earlier wad 1-3” of glop ending as misery mist 22” later, an event that will live on as the greatest short term debacle bust in the history of weather forecasting infamy, and that even includes the telegraph days. I’d even put that over Galveston. No just kidding …nothing beats Galveston but-

Yeah like Will said yesterday to… whomever that was, we’re going to have to probably rely on shorter duration lead time on these “threats” unfortunately. And in the meantime … Hope that the operational runs give us some fake cinema to methadone in the interim ha ha ha

I also think that GFS is not a very good tool for assessing during blocking patterns. I know the model’s made a lot of improvements over the last decade and it’s now perhaps competitive. However, I still at times sense a tendency for it to stretch the x-coordinate and be to progressive especially out in time. I also noticed that tends to accumulate too much colder Heights on the polar side of the ambient jet. I think may be why in enhances the velocities out in time and is what caused that stretching to occur - suppositional. Anyway if you’re in a blocking slowing pattern I think that the native bias, however vestigial exists in the Gfs it may be fighting against that.

Having said that just compare the overnight day 8 9 and 10 of the operational GFS along the 40th parallel - that demonstrates what bad continuity looks like there’s too much uncertainty as to how things are going to orient from the Pacific across the continent.

People are into the operational shows not for substantive analysis, they’re into it for the cinema/thrillseeking. Haha.

In totality this GFS solution is kind of wonky looking because you don’t typically take cyclones on an anti cyclonic trajectory and have them do what that’s doing

Yeah man that’s got road blocked turning into a blue snow scenario written all over it

Mmm I would not sweat that solution at all seriously don’t. You can clearly see the stress of the NAO pattern structure forcing that back south as it tries to clear our longitude just like the 0Z and the 6Z predecessor solutions did too. And all of that period of time is going to be subjected to that kind of forcing - the correction vector still points South. Until there is a coherent reason to switch the direction of that vector I really see taking something significantly west of New England through the great lakes as being very dubious

Oh it’s no contest… Not even close. People who complain about melts are insufferable. I mean we’re being tongue-in-cheek here… Still, melts have an entertainment value. Some delicious turns a phrase can come out of people who are in a state of apoplexy. But the complainers? They are curiously disingenuous people that chastise others for melting, but are in fact melting themselves. That’s just the way they do it – and it’s actually technically a form of gaslighting too. They don’t want to face they're own failing so they defer to targeting others and vent that way.

We can laugh at this is buuut … it is quite right and just about perfect as an early risk assessment. we’ve been talking about the run up to mid month for about 10 days at this point. I mean it’s not just what was in the models there’s other techniques of a personal nature coming from me but other people have been on it too for their own whatever they do. And for winter enthusiast, it is unfortunately a slight chance - but you know …that’s gonna be true whenever we’re talking about a 10 day outlook and this is really 11 12 and 13. I think we’re also kind of in a cultural adjustment when it comes to the technology because the models are so much vastly better we’ve gotten used to expecting certain signals to really manifest at extended leads. But Jesus the 13th to the 15th is still over 10 days away

Yeeeeah I would not count on the MJO helping out much until further notice. It’s really in a destructive interference with the footprint of the Pacific. One thing folks need to understand about the MJO it does not force the pattern; it augments the pattern if/when the pattern is receptive. Otherwise it doesn’t augment shit. Crass way to put it but it either adds or subtracts from an ongoing pattern via constructive vs destructive interference. All of the left side RMM wave phase spaces are destructive until further notice … which is why we keep seeing the wave collapse into the COD region abruptly as it tries to enter phase 8 from 7? That’s the footprint of the Pacific canceling out the MJO, and thus its ability to influence the pattern goes right along with it.

Utter chaos coming from every guidance source overnight… both within their own performance envelopes but relative to one another. The blocking in the hemisphere is the only consistency … but morphologies in how it integrates with the surrounding circulation medium, from forcing to feedbacks, … is/has been different from run to run. If the PAC has “improved” it is what it is but it’s also “new” and represents a mottled continuity … Better looking doesn’t necessarily add too predictive skill - just sayn Oh man. I don’t know this is the first time I’ve seen blocking grow so ominously large that it threatens some kind of cascade thermal inversion that engulfs everywhere and is spooky in the Sci Fi sense of it LOL 06z oper GFS shows the 12.13.14 aspect but it’s hard to even tell if that’s the same or just coincidentally timed peregrination of the next variable run or what that is. The GGEM’s exotic solution is really 7.8.9 getting stuck in -NAO amber … almost a vague analog to the ‘100 hour storm’ but that entire option obliterated any system planning at all in lieu of what that’s doing. Looks less like it logistics out there and much more like it’s just numerical instability in doing something at all underneath the NAO block’s baroclinic petri potential. It’s just so volatile. Retrograde plus east component plus the Coriolis parameter creates a little red spot. … It’s actually kind of cool. Heh Just looking at the individual members of the GEFs it still looks like a run up to mid month has a chance to be a significant player over the eastern conus. The one in the foreground around the eighth to the 10th I think the models will not stop until they actually tap the Metaverse

Oh I see. It’s really just doing what the 12z did but even worse. That would be a first time in history if the NAO actually behaved that way and maybe there’s something tied to global warming and CC with that I don’t know I’ve never seen a model be so hell-bent on doing something that’s pretty much never been seen. Do it seems.

I was just looking at the 18z GFS loop at TT. given that frame size … you almost get the impression there’s no -NAO at all … im too tired to look at this further. I’m getting close to whocaresville but I wouldn’t be shocked if it’s just moved the blocking en masse again

how can they tank the NAO any further, jesus. If that ridge builds any taller the Artemis missions may as well be scrubbed because astronauts could just step from the top of that doom right upon the surface of the moon

Glad you look at the individual members… Don’t be shy about doing that with the GEFS members either. People need to get in the habit of doing that. What’s the harm in doing it if people want to see the modeling cinema. They got 31 different movies going simultaneously…haha. there are some GEFS members with monster solutions near in the Dell Marva to Long Island and in fact the recent trend from the blended mean is showing steadily lowering heights in that area on the 14th which and I have been talking about that period for five days so I have no problem with it.

It’s not a bad take. Really … other than the specter of the block itself, there’s really some exceptionally bad model continuity right now - really rather stunningly poor. I think the draw on the eyes toward the -NAO might even be masking that. It’s still the more important responsibility, that these models show modicum of clue but even the day fours have been a little bit dicey… so as that day is in the approximate 9 to 14 or 16 range we may be still dealing with some of that

Nah he’s right. I was screwing up the time intervals.