Typhoon Tip

It’s one run it’s hardly a consensus. Look I’ve been talking about model magnification and having a shed momentum in the mid range for about three years it’s a reality that’s not going away just because it needs to placate this addiction to model cinema shit. Sorry for bringing up realistic reasons to temper enthusiasm and not let it get away from you.

Sorry dude. That’s unfortunately realistic.

Yeah just looking at that 500 mbar evolution with a multi contoured mid level quasi cut off low deepening further while moving slowly underneath Long Island …there’s no way to estimate the frontogenic pounding that’s capable of in that evolution. just be aware of model magnification.

I’m actually more concerned about this whole thing weakening in the guidance. The total manifold of the trough has been steadily losing mechanics in small percentages the last 6 consecutive runs. It could even end up being ironically weak and S in the end. But yeah … cross that bridge. Classic Minnesota squeeze happening in the models for now.

Modestly intriguing look at mid levels astride the NE coast at 120 hrs. Weird meso low out there roo

What’s going to probably happen - and I agree by the way – is that as the mid-level forcing begins to concede to the NAO and comes east and south east …the surface low will initially start being modeled further north and west and inland …because that’s forcing is but then as we get closer the whole thing would then go back east again - Due to a combination of sensing the boundary layer resistance more clearly as it gets colder and closer in the model but also because the mid-level forcing is probably going to continue to crack tomorrow more so. So it’s kind of like a sinusoidal correction

Not that you don’t know this… But like this current run up to this week demonstrated with the lower tropospheric air mass handling, the models were significantly too warm in the mid range and have been correcting steadily colder. There’s nothing about that antecedent condition next week that strikes me as being able to moderate that air mass. Trust me. I would implore people assume a colder boundary layer with much more resistance than what you’re seeing in that GFS solution verbatim

Right ... that's light off Holiday due to icing in that sucker -

I don’t know what the SWFE rules are George. Like Ray intimated… it’s really based upon shared metrics in either direction. I like that. Maybe that in itself is the SWFE definition that best fits Like everything in this field that’s event related there’s always shared metrics. Like hybrid cyclones for example? Same idea in principal just a different subject matter. It’s just a matter of how much or little it means in either direction. I will say that there’s no such thing as a pure Southwest FE because if it is, it overwhelms the cold air and turns around too quick to be significant enough so you have to have at least some kind of a meso involved so there’s your shared metrics right there.

I’m starting to lean like you mentioned yesterday though that CF materializes. that kind of cold weighted air in Maine once we establish the northeast flow and then if the flow tries to go east that’s going to create a thermal interface there; the wind will actually back probably more north towards Fitchburg while ENE wind at Logan in that scenario I mean that might be exaggerating that something like that tho.

Right… I think we mentioned over a week ago the ‘correction vector’ pointed colder and well … that 2 m is one of the many examples how that sort of verifies

I feel this thread is still relevant… And altho the morphology has changed. 13.14.15 is still in play and that is the system for later next week. Part of that morphology is that it wound up in the plains first but it’s extension east to eventually impact New England -possibly- is all part of the same super structure /risk assessing. I wrote the following this morning in the other thread but I think it’s relevant here : …after spending a few moments observing the EPS and GEFS behavior across the eastern and northeastern pacific …downstream throughout North America, specifically pertaining to the 12th through 20th, a fairly coherent difference leaps out for me. It’s the handling over the EPO domain region. That difference is having a fairly significant instructional impact on how the pattern’s synoptic construct orients (crucially) itself downstream. The EPO is less significantly in the negative EPO phase state. Downstream over the continent it becomes a “seesaw” difference in forcing. The GEFs being stronger in the negative EPO phase, bottoms out the heights more in the southwest lat/lons; which is actually not a bad fit within its own reasoning. That would concomitantly lift the westerlies in latitude over eastern North America. The Pacific handling is still an issue here ladies and gentlemen… At the same time, between day’s 7 through 11… the GEFs has taken to dispersing the negative NAO phase considerably - more quickly or more obviously than the EPO. It seems the GFS ‘species’ has been doing this with the NAO off and on - poor continuity - over the last week. I’m not sure I trust that part of this Both ensemble means carry a storm that winds up in the Plains between the 13th and 14th through the east and or SE Canada between the 15th and the 16th, but the upstream handling at large scales, and how it relays from the Pacific over North America , continues to be a problem, and the forcing mechanisms are critical to eventual system type/impacts. The GEF like hemisphere would promote more of a Great Lakes primary with only weak secondary … if only there because of boundary layer resistance in having cold air that is residually wedged east of Appalachia …etc. The EPO on the other hand… Having a flatter negative EPO digs less into southwest which lowers the heights over eastern North America. But while also maintaining a slightly more robust negative NAO structure out in time everything evolves further south and in fact there are a lot of EPO members, toward the 15th, like Scott was saying they end up with a pretty stem wound secondary/Miller B result. So either way there’s likely to be a significant winter storm affecting the 13th through the 17th of the month from the Plains to the north eastern US and we’re still in the process of figuring out exactly what storm type that will be and where. The two primary ensemble clusters that are typically used, their differences are crucially meaningful as to how all that lays out

It impresses me just how bad all the guidance really was when it was day 4 to 7 range with regard to the 2 m temperature layout over the weekend as the NAO is doing that. And we get to see this correction as we’ve near that time. 18 Z Sunday on this GFS has a 34° temperature at Worcester with a dewpoint in the low 20s… Meanwhile up in Maine it’s in the low to mid 20s with two points in a single digits. These same regions were in the low 40s mid 30s with two points higher than that. It has a very significant correction complexion to this whole thing for anything that’s in this pattern of a blocky general hemisphere. I don’t trust the storm after that that we’ve been following that’s between 13.14 out by Chicago and 16-ish here later next week for that same reason. If we’re still exerting off of a nanny oh we’re going to have a completely different lower troposphere from Lake superior to the coastal waters of New England out in the mid range and the extended period

And it may even end up with more than that…. personally as a “meteorological purist“ I haven’t been a particularly huge fan of the Southwest flow even ( since I lost weight – j/k…) terminology since its inception back whence. I mean if a storm is generating a Miller B, it’s a tilted Vortx in the vertical with a primary escaping through the eastern lakes …that’s southwest flow but cyclogen taking over - that’s a Miller b. I mean there’s a reason why thats codified and not the other thing. be that as it may …I get what it means to call it a Southwest event. And I don’t entirely disagree with his essence either so I’m on the fence with the term really

Yeah this is in my opinion a much better presentation for storm risk assessing… Unfortunately it’s a little bit too far outside my taste without a tremendous amount of support from the Telecon‘s but they are coming around. Hmmm

It’s a helluva little nuke there huh

Oh please… I just got a chance to finally look at the Gfs on lunch break… The 12 Z version? that’s clearly beginning to respond to NAO stressing. Yep the “Minnesota squeeze“ in full effect. …no question about it.

Yeah well… I sort of hemmed myself into the ownership of the negative position on this thing and I did not mean for that. I use the word or rather the phrase “… The disappearance of… “Late last night and that’s not really what I meant. I didn’t mean that it was disappearing, as in not happening per se. The intent was really that this is differentiating towards less impact so expecting less should be the expectation here. The synoptics surrounding this thing means that it’s an a -d(system state) But the other aspect…I think that we can fill in the area with strata and light synoptic precipitation and have the mean lift still missed the area to the south. There are disparate mechanics going on here for having a long fetched Northeast flow that has a moisture source concurrently taking place. It may be difficult to parse those two out? Because if that thing impacts the region it’s probably gonna be not significantly greater than what the other aspect would also produce

I’m still not fully convinced that we won’t get kind of a saturable inversion layer bunching up along the terrain in the interior off that long fetch east northeast flow pouring out of the NAO. That can be a gray grits kind of day with some flurries and then if there’s any OES smear. We could do all this also at 37° …true but I think the 2 m temperature is trending colder at this time of year and all that. it probably ends up closer to freezing?

If that’s true it fits … yeah. The pattern ‘maintenance’ events are more related to super synopsis - the ambient jets and storm track longer term tendencies. Whereas ‘bombs’ are occurring because of local temporal, intra-scale restoring of mass fields … which are occurring because the abv where significantly stress. - true regardless of storm types, too. But with track and jets migrating N the ‘snow’ bombs inherently were S of in the stressed domain.

Britney Griner was released from Russian prison ! Prisoner swap between her and some Russian arms dealer known as the 'the merchant of death' apparently. Reminds me of that awesome Spielberg movie, 'Bridge of spies'

If anyone is interested… after spending a few moments observing the EPS and GEFS behavior across the eastern and northeastern pacific …downstream throughout North America, specifically pertaining to the 12th through 20th, a fairly coherent difference leaps out for me. It’s the handling over the EPO domain region. That difference is having a fairly significant instructional impact on how the pattern’s synoptic construct orients (crucially) itself downstream. The EPO is less significantly in the negative EPO phase state. Downstream over the continent it becomes a “seesaw” difference in forcing. The GEFs being stronger in the negative EPO phase, bottoms out the heights more in the southwest lat/lons; which is actually not a bad fit within its own reasoning. That would concomitantly lift the westerlies in latitude over eastern North America. The Pacific handling is still an issue here ladies and gentlemen… At the same time, between day’s 7 through 11… the GEFs has taken to dispersing the negative NAO phase considerably - more quickly or more obviously than the EPO. It seems the GFS ‘species’ has been doing this with the NAO off and on - poor continuity - over the last week. I’m not sure I trust that part of this Both ensemble means carry a storm that winds up in the Plains between the 13th and 14th through the east and or SE Canada between the 15th and the 16th, but the upstream handling at large scales, and how it relays from the Pacific over North America , continues to be a problem, and the forcing mechanisms are critical to eventual system type/impacts. The GEF like hemisphere would promote more of a Great Lakes primary with only weak secondary … if only there because of boundary layer resistance in having cold air that is residually wedged east of Appalachia …etc. The EPO on the other hand… Having a flatter negative EPO digs less into southwest which lowers the heights over eastern North America. But while also maintaining a slightly more robust negative NAO structure out in time everything evolves further south and in fact there are a lot of EPO members, toward the 15th, like Scott was saying they end up with a pretty stem wound secondary/Miller B result. So either way there’s likely to be a significant winter storm affecting the 13th through the 17th of the month from the Plains to the north eastern US and we’re still in the process of figuring out exactly what storm type that will be and where. The two primary ensemble clusters that are typically used, their differences are crucially meaningful as to how all that lays out

… Seems to be a recurring theme that we start threads for winter storms that end up being more central in northern New England over the last couple three years doesn’t it?…

ArrrYep I made the impertinent ( to this species of internet users …) jest, half serious, that this was like a - NAO being mangled by CC a couple days ago. Whether that’s what you had in mind or not, I agree in principle that “somethings up“ - regardless of the ultimate causality

Ha ha Ray … It’ll happen Some day. My guess is it will be a forecast bust