Typhoon Tip

Based on history with guidance handling these kind of short duration cold bombs ... from 'over active' N/stream modeling forays ... I'd like to see these kind of numbers < 72 hours lead before I buy fully into this. I think 2016 is the last time one of these worked out and was only 90% of the original 'holy shitness' appeal. Otherwise, these notoriously damp some. No problem with the presumption of a chilly week in general and the 2-day stint of bottom-out readings, but how much -

Gfs is back with the 5/6th … It’s marginal but you can work with that from this range. The bully N/stream SPV has lifted out and taken the inhibitive compression with it. Good start

I don’t see very high magnitude as very high confidence …, cold intrusion is likely

I mean imagine the climate sheet this month? ha.. it'd be like 39, 41, 44, 38, 50, 44, 47, 54, 49, 43, 37, 33, -1 , 35, 45, 57 ....

Yeah ...rain showers or not, that rapid cessation of the cold idea has been recurring across most guidance. They and the blend are trying to roll out the hemisphere with haste. Sometimes we claim 'too fast to break down the pattern' but ... hm, almost feels like this time we can't - or shouldn't.

It's - admittedly for me ... - partial in why I wonder how well winter enthusiasm will fair post the elephant ass mooshing down the trampoline, next 10 days here. I've intimated as much in the past. Not sure about Eric Webb's history and credentials, or 'internet cred' ... et al, but regarding that one statement? -the constructive interference of a Phase 3-4 ( possibly 5) over La Nina, without considering any other factors, he's completely salient that we're apt to having to deal with a hot wall across the south. Op ed: By extension to that ... I have mentioned how over the past 7 yeas, we have observed a week in February host a day near or at 80, amid several back to back days in the same week whence temperatures exceeded 70 F ... three different times. These occurred regardless of (-) or (+) ENSO... I'm pretty sure - don't quote me, but it might be worth it to find out - those three different events were in aggregate, never experienced either empirically extreme over climate nor sensibly... It's like 4 or 5 days were 66, 72, 79, 76, 54 ... with lows some +20 over climate. We have spent far too little time gawking over those ... which were in fact probably the greatest SD events we have actually witnessed at a regional geographic scope and scale ... spanning many decades. We just don't care enough ( perhaps). I mean, obviously it's just not in the interest wagon...etc. No attempt at gaslight .. it is what it is etc. I'm just not convinced there isn't something more to those three warm bursts ... more systemic than chance, lurking in the background as a low -amplitude influencer. Along comes some well timed constructive interference factors and ...well, does that recur.

We take that ... It's marginal and at this range, it is even money. After having passed through a dreadfully awful circumstance by then, where very little (is likely) happened ( although the 2nd refuses to completely disappear and keeps sort of trying - ) at all, uncertainty is a better companion then no love. That event is happening more from the polar branch of the westerlies as a Pac delivered impulse, ...perhaps crucially, after the compression of that TPV has rolled out and left. Once that happens, that opens the door to better logistical chances.

This deep TPV event wanes pretty fast out there between the 3rd and the 5th of February. Towards the end of that transition period, the GFS ejects at wave into the E. That is not an "as bad" look, because the elephant ass has left the trampoline arena, allowing other aspects to dent the flow ... ( heh, kind of hung up on that metaphor lately I admit LOL ) Anyway, I really feel pretty confident that this pattern change has arrived, and much to our collective chagrin? ...it is abysmal. Deal - I mean, really... .01 QPF spanning 10 days of the GGEM model ( and the Euro wasn't far behind). The rain shadow of the Andes is one of if not the most formidable dry damned places on Earth, and that region gets that much from dew/frost condensation. We're attempting to pull off, at mid latitude N/A during the stormiest climate time of the winter season mind you ..., competitive results with the Andean rain shadow. ...astoundingly bad... really - So there's some hyperbole in that above. In essence? it's certainly fair enough. I really feel we need to get through this cold plume variant pattern and the elephant before much is going to take place. This predicament synopsis is wholly prohibitive.

If the Euro and some of these other guidance type/cycles are right about next Friday night I'd suggest you do so with ease .. Hm, it's possible that is a windier scenario holds it above the current 2-meter outlook. It doesn't stick around, either. The air mass comes in sort of Montreal Express, and then the high pressure quickly moves east and the wind just veers right back around from the SW in a lot of these depictions ... Considering the standard 10% reduction on amplitude for cold air at this range, combined with wind motion? may hold it 1F at 3 am that night in reality Right now the 2-meter is about -10F along Rt 2. we'll see

Yet...should be able to set some personal record drive distances in -10 F lol

Pretty much ... ...while fighting the tendency to be less than objective about that. lol - it's hard.

Well ..heh. I guess it's a subjective vs empirical evidence question. Going back to circa November 29 and telescoping the month of December, given the synoptic and super-synoptic vision of the day.. that woulda been a helluva "good period" But it turned out to be patently, vastly under performed ...relative to that - although enters the subjectivity somewhat there, because the historic Lake cutter bomb toward Xmas in a purist's Meteorological perspective, makes that all worth it. For consensus in here? - such virtuosity is fleeting at best. As it were ...that period did not do much at all ( for three weeks of 'good period'!) to appease the New England forum consensus. We then marched through a mid winter hiatus between so-called good periods, ...finally sniffing this one out 2 or so weeks ago. Impatience ran amok but here we are, and the pattern change arrives(d)... and it's just unfortunate that what is modeled in the dailies, and observable in these super-synoptic circumstances ...both appear indelibly destined to another period that will set up good wrt to conventionality, but deliver less that what that convention would argue it should. Which ...it's fair enough to ask if maybe these guidance' are just going to far and that something is in there. One could certainly advance the notion, the models tend to over-amp the late mid/ext ranges... If the models are too plump with the elephant ass N/stream, that may offer a shorter duration lead correction to something. It's right in the climate hot seat for activity/winter storms over these next 10 days, precisely when the models are trying to sell almost 0 QPF during ... But we've done this/that before... 2012 passed through this period with highs around 45 and partly sunny every day, too. At least this time, we'll be cold... Cold is a good foundation... etc. There's hidden arguments despite the convincing aspect of a season's worth of conditionalized sore butting ( lol), not exactly setting us up with the right frame of mind to uncover. ...egh. 'nough of that.

It may be adding big word choice to say, but I just prefer to call it a destructive interference regime. Also, progressive, suppressive ... passive aggressive ...whatever we wanna call it, the flow is vastly too compressed with high velocities. The former aspect would need to be overcome to get much to evolve over the next 10 days of this. The latter aspect would then (likely) limit further, because system profiles would favor faster narrower/shearing type structures. Converged delimiters ( negatives ). The operational GGEM and Euro manage 10 days with .01 base line atmosphere ( it'll frost that much!), with one 24 hour period of -20 to -30C 850 mb Montreal Express. 10 days with nary nada - it's really rather remarkable.

GFS made an attempt at bringing the 2nd back … it became forgotten once the 1st showed up and stole eyes. But the 1st then disappeared and the one 24 hrs later’s trying to reappear. Needs work tho. Fast volatile flow of low deterministic value. It’s possible we succeed in passing thru a buck shot minor event pattern but you’d think with the 31st, 1st, 2nd, 23/24, 25/26 all at one time or the other cycle showing up … one would be real enough.

This 10 days is basically 1980s

it's always a good sign when half the uncertainty spread of your ensemble mean is actually fighting over the sfc PP of the "high pressure"

Fwiw (not much...) but the new ICON solution likes the notion on the 1st of bringing NYC seasonal snow total higher than Boston's

Ugh.. lord with these teleconnectors. They are in a numerical equivalence to a significant event (signal ~ the 2nd to 7 ..8th), but the actual spatial means are not - usually, one corrects toward the other but it seems we're nearing that time and that is not happening. The -EPO leads a +d(PNA), which means the EPO is progressive in nature. That's a cold loading and more favorable regime to storminess (eventually) over eastern N/A, compared to the retrograde EPO variant - which loads trough more semi-permanently into the W and we roast yadda yadda. Despite that progressive EPO, ... .we are getting nothing but compression/destructive interference between the large and small scales.

if you're seriously asking ... heh, I don't know how we can separate the two - an elephant's sitting on a trampoline flow, vs that Miami rule... The mashed compression masks any identity of the latter. Miami rule is a rough means to assess S/W strength corrections as they descend down an otherwise seemingly favorable total +PNAP flow construct. If the heights are higher than ~ 582 over Miami, and the geopotential gradient is steep there prior to the S/W descending SE of roughly the Dakotas...whatever the models are doing along the EC with said S/W, to energize the mood in this social media, plan on that mood feeling betrayed - it's a matter of how much or how little... heh. It's more of an operational weather trick

Yeah so...the problem is the compression and the hurried velocities of the flow during the week to 10 days. The models don't typically perform very well when the flow is high velocity, because the flow is too integrated. Looser more open flows with greater hydrostatic gradients - that's where organized storms are handled better. But when the flow is highly integrated from larger to small scales... small wobbles in run-to-run placement of larger features directly causes large constructive or destructive interference... It can mean total disappearance and then reappearance across successive model runs. That's why one run has the 1s...the next run doesn't, but focuses on the 3rd... then scrubs both in lieu of the 25th on the next... then it's back to the 23rd, sans the other two... and that's really what these last several model cycles are doing. The question is naturally which, if any, are real? The 00z GGEM liked the 1st for a flat fast progressive wave. That structure of that system is actually not a bad solution in this hurried trajectory and tendency for compression. In its solution, said compression is just relaxed enough to allow the wave to squeeze through with enough conserved mechanics to get a light to moderate event through the region. The other guidance destructively interfere to oblivion. The 23-25th system is still there but 00z/06z GFS can't get the flow to 'kink' N of the compression axis in the TV-MA region so we stay boring cold and dry. Euro seems to have even less 1st ... but is suggestive toward the 5th-7th again. The end of the Euro run enters a new era of relaxing flow as the elephant N/stream lifts into the maritime region of Canada... but that's of course at the horizon of the guidance so cannot really be used deterministically - it's nice eye candy though lol. Looking ahead... the flow will likely to relax... but, I'm also concerned that as it does, we'll see a pretty profound correction in the total flow structure ... visible in guidance by then, that is ... unfriendly to winter enthusiasts. There's valid reasons to assess that as having more probability to occur than a cold reload at this time.

Having passed right through the next 10 days of our only hope by providing no hope, the GFS then says ...

yeah ...it's discouraging ... If the antecedent relentless failures this winter were not the case, it'd be less offensive knowing that has to all be the end of these model runs.

huh, ...that's the same 4/5th wave the GGEM lifted up, too. Two models latching onto a signal in the D8+ range in 2023 ? that's like a dimmest kid in class winning the chess tournament

I don't know if there's any continuity and it's not an aver to any potential but the follow-up wave ejecting wave through the west has promise too - it's got an aft ridge for a change, and the elephant's stampeded off the maps by then... ha

looks like the Euro's trying to finagle a S/streamer maybe but yeah ... this N/stream elephant ass routine can go to another planet if it wants to - ugh