Typhoon Tip

It's an epic battle between these recent deterministic run renditions, vs this ... There's no interpretation - in a vacuum - that supports the operational GFS and Euro longer lead visions - yet they're persisting. We've actually been in this disconnect for awhile in the guidance frame domains. Telecons have parted company... I checked the Euro clusters version of these at WeatherBell and they're essentially the same... But here's the thing... that 'in a vacuum' aspect cloaks the -EPO 'tendency' I put the tendency in quotes because it's a NE Pac ridge node that's displaced from the EPO's canonical domain. It's really a -PNA/+AO(QUASI -EPO) that is causing all the problems. The pattern in the deterministic solutions is utterly responsive to the cold loading off the later mode tendency, and they're physically ending up suppression any other exertion from these other field sources. If we look at this, you can see how a +AO, -PNA, +NAO with a weird variation on -EPO could cause the anti-correlary result to take place...

As far as the pattern change scoffing ... It's been pretty clear - to me - all along that there is a tendency to conflate whether a pattern has changed, with whether that pattern has delivered d-drip or whatever it is that is sought from the observed d(pattern). That's improper as a reproach to this - or, ...if you want that to be valid, it has nothing to do with either weather observation and everything to do with some sort of disconnect for anything real. The pattern changed. The sensible result.... no, scratch that. The modeling cinema still did not produce - apparently what really matters to this. There's a phrase available in most languages of the planet, which in spirit means exactly the same aspect about life and times and dealing with what is real... it's called TOUGH SHIT The pattern changed. You're lack of satisfaction for this too 'oft humbling addiction behavior did not. Those are mutually exclusive aspects of reality.

Well yeah... in a purely objective sense ( an attribute so richly observed in the regular engagement of this internet social media pastime LOL ...), I have 20" so far this season. That fell from something ... right?

wow... yeah Scott. Not only that... the GFS' entire extended range hemisphere has completely vacated any notion of a warm end of month. ( seems the verification of temperatures is always warmer than synoptic signaling in the last 10 years... notwithstanding)

Yeah... that thought ( bold ) crossed the mind. I also told 'em a few moments ago not to dismiss the Euro out of hand, too. I'm still objective about this. Fun posts should be taken lightly -

mm hm.. but don't cha-guys kinda sorta get a feelin' like this is trying to get us as close as imaginatively possible without ever having it take place? The UKMET solution? sure, of course - that's the bate run. While the weight of all others combined into a consensus that only toys ever closer. Therefore, when the 30" of accumulated sorrow has happened over a 0" snow pack, the models get to say, hey ... the consensus was still a miss ( either that, or they nailed the "sorrow storm"). Haha... I should write dystopian fiction.

Well.. I was also entering a soupcon of sardonic intent in that. I didn't mean that as a no way out forecast. haha. The Euro shouldn't be dismissed out of hand, either - in the more objective sense.

Ah ha! ... there is a spark of redemption to this winter then, at least for her - lol

12z GFS is the more likely solution for that thing... which, not without sensitivity to the matter, is like a maleficent turn through a burn ward with a spritzer of rubbing alcohol ... oh well.

https://phys.org/news/2023-02-antarctic-ice-january-climate.html

Fwinotw - the 12z NAM is about 5 to 10kts stronger with the wind max carving down the Rockies at 18 hours... I'm not on Pivotal or faster intake sites - relying on TT at the moment... but that "could" translate favorably along the EC out in time. we'll see -

First nape day ? Btw (you’ll love this) … today marks the end of the perennial solar minimum … begins the solar transition. It’s like saying it’s the first day of ‘sun spring’. Subtle at first will ensue a steadily increasing but noticeably warmer and warmer direct sun sensation. And yes .., exposed parked cars … even on cold days … will tend to toast inside. HAHA the best part! I’ve noticed this many years ago as pretty coherent upon this time every February … Then upon later learning of the solar min/tran/max. It was like a ‘whoa. right!’ moment. Made perfect sense. Anyway … it’s probably as good a date as any to designate the beginning of ‘nape season’. It’s when light wind sunny moments … even in comparably cold air gives that allusion …almost “protection” inside a fragile soothing bubble. And the car thing. Etc. I’ve walked down the street in calm, 33 F air under cobalt blue sky, immersed in mid February sun and could swear it must be much warmer. Actually ...Friday looks too breezy for the direct exposure aspect.

‘WW’ ?

Mm I would stick to ‘uncertainty that could break more favorably during the 2nd half of this month,’ …and leave March out if it. Just IMHO.

Heh … not sure about the “all of March” aspect, but there’s contention for the second half if this month, sure. There’s no valid means to asses longevity over a pattern that’s iffy. If any presenter suggests that the listener should be politely very skeptical. That actually sounds like an add on fantasy lol If anything there are longer termed planetary indicators for a warm spring - btw.

Timing is everything in this particular case.. heh - even gotta thread the needle with cut-offs, which are inherently the opposite of the typical needle threader wave structure. Jesus that's a bad year LOL It seems there's window for a spike in deepening right near the lower M/A skies. but it's unclear at best whether that can translate up the coast. ah hell, it's about having anything interesting to track at all for me at this point. No sense of loss with this one. I'm really more intrigued with the complete telecon massacre setting up beyond that. Either that, or the models are fighting that signal based on biases... The last half of the month is officially in coin flip status though -

It's a classic 'bowling' season system, actually. Spring incarnate. I realize it is just Feb 8 ... but it is what it is. This event is precisely the type referred to by the social-media vernacular, 'bowling season' Just a guess ( lol ) but it might annoy any winter enthusiast that needs to play rationalization games. You know? hold onto internal narratives that are based on plausibility ( which by definition are seldom facts), rather than having to accept those kind of very valid observational comparisons. Rubbing it in a little bit ... but this system as described and illustrated in the modeling cinema, it is about 100% likeness to spring cut-off bowling ball. The N/stream abandoned this thing in the modeling about 4 .. 5 days ago, and no model run I've seen, since, has really demoed any attempt to reintroduce that stream interaction. It was originally dumping some modest/crucial N/stream reinvigorating dynamics ...roughly near the Dakota longitudes. Without it, the southern aspects left behind have to be more potent to feed-back on the surrounding and end up a d-drip dose. haha Anyway, it seems there is a subtle up-tick in the mechanical detection coming off the Pacific. The observed "slight" model reasons for improved optimism since 12z yesterday has been in tandem with the S/W relay - not sure that is just chance. Overnight, the ensemble means did bump a little teasingly more W over the W Atl, and also 2 or so mb deeper. Not enough... The mechanics are now situated within the more physically realized sounding domain over land, so going forward, not sure we are going to get more out of this "correction". We'll see.

That’s what I was thinking… And those large sleet pellets here were actually more like hail because they were larger opaque spheroids …they weren’t clear like sleet PL

even the ICON ‘of bad’ model trended

Bump for relevancy … we’ll have see if the N reposition by GFS was just a coincidence

yup...last 10 days of the month.

Switch

May come stormin' back N whence the relay gets underway this evening and overnight. Not a forecast - but there is a non-zero probability that this thing's missing something due to assimilation over the E Pac. Some of this system's getting lost to us in recent runs is also related to the handling of the western ridge and the N/stream sliding over top of it. We had some implications for phasing up through a couple day's ago, but now the ridge is positively tilting and the N/stream is displacing E of the southern aspect ...thus missing phasing. Not sure if that part can correct and probably won't, but in the off chance the southern aspect relays in stronger it could adjust that along the EC.

I didn't think the summer was that hot .... I mean, we own the nocturnal inferno thing. But the days seemed retrained some beneath memorability. Ha, namely ...I don't personally remember that as a hot day-time exposure.

There's a landscape machinery repair and sales type outfit here in town, and you drive by there and there's rows of neglected snow blowers, sparkly as though wearing their best clothes ...standing in wait on adoption day at the local orphanage. Putting their best behavior foot forward they're smiles in waste. They were born into this world in haste, but now ...for most of them ... they'll never be a part of a family.