Typhoon Tip

You know I mentioned this earlier in this thread ... that layout does not look like a typical coastal layout. That looks like an overrunning event. I mused at the time that it may actually be similar in layout to what just occurred, if perhaps along a more southerly axis. That's all still the case. I don't know if it's just symbolic, or if there is much actual veracity to that comparison. Interesting Man, I've frankly grown a bit weary of coverage for this winter ... I'm definitely ready for it go away. Unless there's something that can overcome this -PNA grip on our side of the hemisphere, I'm close to the bubble on tolerating this shit much more. There may be some hope - the MJO folks were intrigued in there last weekly publication. This current event may gut punch the Nina and serve as a kind trigger/inflection in its demise. Great! That helps us out for April But you didn't ask me that haha... No, but I think this system's parental/mid level mechanics were always real, but back whence this was more impressively the respective guidance ( or blends there in...) there were two scopes of uncertainty that I myself blundered. The first was... the S-SE warm wall is a semi-permanent artifact of the La Nina/-PNA. We've been in a very well coupled hemisphere since the 3 weeks around Xmas when it broke down and yielded that hybrid Nino look. Point is, it was not modeled to really go away prior to this thing getting injected through as it was back whence. My blunder is not supplying enough obvious recognition to the fact that moving a S/W up and over the top of a ridge arc supplies a -NVA term across all DPVA deltas along the way. We see this as "damping" effect in the cinema of the runs.. Here's what then really "doomed" this guy: "de" magnification ... that's the coup de gras, the 2nd blunder. The models were perhaps over amplified with the main S/W when it was D9 ( no shit!?). That's become a regular/reproducible observation going back several years actually... idiot. Compounding a perfunctory downward correction in kinematics with -NVA concept is a bit much. These 'objective speculations' I feel pretty strongly are more valid than just reaching for explanation.

Looks like the new GFS is a little weaker aloft but still provides dense QPF for the 4th … which may end up being the third.

Is this the dependable recurring theme of the noir film where we only consider models that enable our denial?

Oh it’s a slow grind when it does. It starts with a bad run here or there… Then we start getting a general QPF consensus that’s shaving pts. Already down to a high end advisor in general but like if the 0z icon comes around maybe that limps us into a low end warning. snark aside… I think this event has a little of that demagnification stuff going on for other reasons. but it also was probably going to attenuate some just because it’s going over the top of the ridge arc. A track like that imposes physical limitations on amplitude… I’m kind of kicking myself for not recognizing that for five days ago with this. I don’t know if you can tell but my mood on this is really down ha ha ha but it’s because of that blunder

Heh 0Z Iconoclastic model with 6-8” of course

It seems like this is turning into one of the most vivid examples of the “de”magnification phenomenon yet, where the models correct grandiosity down to gerbil turds

The euro was probably not right… That said I do think that this thing has a lowered potential fwiw

I don't think so, if I were asked at this time and "mood" (admittedly) I dunno... the NAO is gone. Red Herring all along. It may return to those retro white dreams it was along those prior runs, now tossed upon the trash heap of modeled fantasies - a heap that is in my opinion far larger than any modeled NAO success stack. There were/are 2 primary factors driving this late winter, as we turn page into a early spring. - La Nina/-PNA persistent foot print - The happenstance of a cold loading event across the Canadian shield. That latter aspect is really the only thing protecting us from early 'warm bursts' ... perhaps similar to 2017, 2018 ... 2020..etc. Dice rolling on NAO by the physical results of model ( so to speak...) just very recently perhaps added to that, but thinking back on that modeling escapade... It was always perfect. Think about that. A perfect NAO requiring at D7-10 lead. Uuuusually doesn't end very well. I think whatever happens moving forward, don't count on assistance by the NAO. I was just looping the 10 days of the 12z deterministic Euro, and it really has very little NAO blocking sufficiently above neutral 500 mb anomalies to matter, W of Iceland, the whole way. That's hugely different than some of these charts just 4 or so days ago. ... anyway, I guess there is some small consolation in knowing that it can just as easily return and help force matters - the probability goes in both directions. But I hate to roll eyes ... the clock is ticking on this season, perhaps at a faster rate than normal years do to the most persistent and dependable of those two signals above: the ENSO/-PNA In fact, the D10 Euro is almost a warm burst. Not sure how this effects ( if any) the GFS Mar 4 idea. The 12z GEFs have so much weight in favor of a bigger event there ( not just the operational), that all this may be irrelevant for that event. That said, the GEFs 12z mean doesn't have much NAO moving west across the Basin any longer either ( thru D10). It tries beyond but this f'n thing is can-kicking big time. Just stop. We don't even need an NAO in a GEFs/operational GFS scenario. So I guess this afternoon op ed, in the spirit of commiseration ..., has two facets. The first being, the longer term signals are returning to a warm one for the month of March. Without the NAO, and the cold in Canada surely exhausting in time - have to monitor the EPO loading pattern for the first couple of weeks of the month - not sure how there can arouse any other impression. The second aspect regards yet another lesson in overrated NAO. I mean it plays a role and can be a modulator, but it's really still just the Pacific ( transitive wave mechanics - been trying to explain this lately but who wants to think in an environment of fantasy and escape lol) and fact of the matter is, we can do fine without it. We just don't have the footprint hemisphere to do so this go of it.

... all in good fun but still... I don't know if I'm ready to throw "Ralph Phillips" under the bus for a combination of La Nina, global climate change, and denial entirely. Maybe just shove 'im in front and see if he dives out of the way in time

And the beauty is...its crossing through its performance 'event horizon' like right now ... and it sniffs this solution? I'll be in the March thread if anyone needs me -

See ...this is why the Euro model is such an asshole now. First, it takes a hint and blows it out of proportion... and creates this charming sociopathic argument to it's peers to join in, which they do to a greater extent that faithful afternoon. But, now that the great conning narcissist has everyone deceive by guile, it leaves them in a convincing lurch: "Suckerrrrs". What jerk!

I've been warning ... correction vector is pointed toward less. I'm grudgingly accepting the prospect for more, and this is just one run and all that blah blah-blah blah. But, this is still facing certain large scale circulation type challenges... Adding that too this aspect of "model magnification" we've referred to in the past, sort of makes this a smoking gun for a "top 10 bamboozle" event. We'll see

How about just "Taunted"soul and be done with it. lol

except that it's not a Miller B

Mm I suspect the IB front side can burst 2 or 3"/hr for a stint/banding interval, inside a general moderate snow that lasts 6 hours, then it fades into a S-/S with friendly posting triggering mood snows for protracted finish. Probably 6-8" in that, followed by 1-3" over 12 hours or something - just GFS verbatim. It may even have a backside edge that looks like an end near, that temporarily has some trollers trying to recoup on their losses ( which were our gains..), only to have that back side start filling in with level 1 or 2 rad returns - and they just vanish whence that happens. Heh

unfunny

If the EPS comes around on this Mar 4 ...it's our next thread, with a caveat emptor on Mar 2 ... though I have a feeling that may start to yield to this one... we'll see.

Jesus what a QPF monster that Mar 4 event is on this 12z "deterministic" ( heh we hope!) GFS solution is. Looks like 2.5" of sleet followed by 18" of snow from Steve to Ray

00z --> 06z may have started that trend from this particular tool. Offering a little cross-guidance ... unfortunately offers less support, as the EPS seems to be caught between that sneaky Mar 2nd system and this one above... perhaps some noise induced wave destruction

Agree ( not about the use of the ICON lol) the bigger totals than that. I was just musing a response to the other poster seeming to 'grouse' a 3-6 idea

Heh... 3-6" is a fine for my personal druthers. Jesus it's almost March anyway. It's funny this talk of futility that occasionally gets peppered into various contexts ...when the 'seasonal' futility is already happened - Don't forget, winter can fret and fright its hour upon the stage ... the July curtain call is still coming. heh

More than that... It snows probably 5" in 7 hr as a mean distribution away from marine taint ... then another tortured 1-3" over many hours in that run

Muah hahaha... how to create a big chicken salad out of a scenario turning simultaneously into chicken shit...

The ICON is converting this thing into what we just had...only farther S ( axial)... hey, that puts a snow event in the area. It's also got this lasting as mood snows after the IB aspect... it snows for 18 additional hours in S- bursts between that and the N/stream S/W that's racing to catch up.

Bingo! been hammering these two facets since this "top 10 blizzard" thread was decided the appropriate pin version for this event - eh hm...