Typhoon Tip

I think there may be a bit of an oversell on the BL warming potential ... suspect maybe at Logan itself, but the west side of the city...draw a line down to NE RI and I don't have as much issue E of that imaginary line... West of there probably has more NNE or NE, and this cold is loaded enough clear up that it's not going anywhere if you ask me - which you didn't.. just sayn'

My old standard, the FOUS grid... , has Logan winds ENE as 20 sustained... DPs in the interior all the up into Quebec are in the teens and I don't see where that's changing before we start dumping into that. I suspect density in the interior may encourage a bit of CF or perhaps impression of one. That may matter because where that sets up, I feel it then moves SE over the course.

George01 probably feels it is unfair for you to use 'blizzard' in context when he gets targeted for social destruction whenever he does ... hahahaha No, but I see where you are coming from. Echoing my earlier sentiments, I'm a bigger fan for post cold loading --> block relaxation windows in general. When I map that potential ( as is emergent now...) over top my own methodology ...I see March 11-12-13, but the 10th is certainly doable/adjustable at this range. Sure -

standard 32km version also nearly an inch of melted over eastern zones. pretty much reverses the advisory vs warning layout... heh. jeez

these exact circumstances fed in 20 years ago would be worse -

sssh... know what'd be funny? the secondary develops more than thought and the east gets most in now-cast

Working from home today ... F'cker and Spaz are on, and apparently ... MLB is implementing a pitch clock? I'll watch games either way because I like baseball - but it would make that a lot more enjoyable for many if they weren't 4 hours of cup adjusting bat masturbation vs actually putting the ball in play ... It's not just the pitchers. The hitters contribute to the total slow down cycle... they both have to get it done faster now. I think it'll make the product funner -

I still see issues with both, but they're not the same. ex, the GFS has a subtle progressive/speed shearing bias. contrasting, the Euro tries for to expand ridging to a bit too earnestly through the mid range... These aren't completely obvious to anyone given a single run, but it's just something one might notice if they pour over a lot of cycles over extended periods - which no hobbyist in here every does that, huh ....haha kidding but yea

Helping advect in some cold would be a help for winter enthusiasts, yup - if that were to be that much more evolved as it's exiting.

HO man... hahaha... 'Magine if that happened? 10 -20" followed by 3r/4th. Here's the deal. I'm at 24.5" on the season. If I were get 7" (may be a stretch ...feel better about that much down by you) ...I'm over 30. 4" of Advisory on the 2nd is say 35" ... uh oh! Don't look now but the GFS is too far NW and we get 17" out of the 4th and we're staring down the barrel of a -EPO mid March with a relaxing NAO ... hm Above average seasonal snow fall would just be some incredibly delicious frosting, icing over a particularly rancid dogshit cake of a season. HAHAHA And it's not like that pattern canvas looks anything like this ...what? with a negative anomaly tucked SW like that. heh

Oh I do.. In fact Will and I talked about that "little ignored critter" like... gosh 5 days ago. But we were musing how sometimes sandwiched in between bigger payload events, some little innocuous 'engine that could' suddenly steals some lime-light. I'm pretty sold on that not being the case down here, but y'all up there could easily cash-in on a short period burst from that. Altho I admit to not honestly looking at it just recently day -

Know what's gonna happen? this thing is going to 15 inch much of the area out of nowhere, and the Euro's 18z run today will nail it... while all the other models are still struggling for 8s watch LOL

wild speculation here... perhaps we should bear these late corrections in mind as we head then toward the 4th. I undersand the idea of past performance blah blah present handling - but I've always found that argument rather dubiously divisive in the sense that it omits a very important conceptual aspect that in unfortunately still true: two events of similar handling, inside a the same governing pattern, will tend to verify with comparable behavior. So, any modeling errors in handling the predecessor ... at least has justifiable suspicion for repeating. That's just logic. I mean, not that the 4th really needs more QPF. jesus. But I'm also seeing a tendency to cool the during-event column a little here as we approach this.

Think of that as jostling around inside a region bounded by a confluence/domain wall you can almost make out there nearing the top right corner of this slide show. It's not going to get more N, with that there. What you're seeing in this comparison is jostling within that allowed region.. But it is pressing the NW-N edge of the available space inside that bounded area. IF some how for some reason the confluence orientation goes away, than the guidance will have no compunctions about driving this thing straight across James Bay from S to N... But that's would be unlikely, because it would require completely changing the manifold of the local hemispheric circulation mode.

His looping image starts on D 9 and runs out a 3 or so days... It's more about a specific period to watch for something- it may not characterize the whole 1-15 perod of time. March is a fickle beast as we know... I mean, it could be +8 on average and still nest a blue nugget across the time range. As to the 1-10 per se... not sure the surface/lower troposphere N of ~ 40 N sees what those 500 mb isohypses anomaly products look like.

yup... we're struggling to find a consensus here - but there is some sense of really getting an event. Heh...gotta start somewhere. But that's the take away so far... we'll see where things go.

Yeah..that trailing S/W has been looming ... the way it interferes is in question. It seems it is helping to tip the flow more SW and that carries the 3rd/4th lead more NW... ultimately creating the mangle aggregate clung to IP zr fest. I dunno... the orbital view to me hasn't changed. I don't see this getting N of Cleveland really... It's like the GFS has been trying to find ways to squeeze along that axis ever more densely every run.

Oh... I've thought that was too cute all along, frankly. I mean it may certainly go down that way, but I don't think the models are that good. I bet if it's snowing heavy in Templeton, it's snowing heavy in Ayer given these synoptic parameters. ...just not something I'm inclined to mention. Some storms, yeah...obviously It seems the model physics are having like ( this is gonna sound wacko) "grid scale negative feedback" ..there is a blocking exertion, but the models are over assessing it at the boundary of their grid. Thats "might" be why the meso models have more snow over eastern areas in general, because their not doing that at those finite scales as much. Dorks like me think about shit like that. LOL

Man... I'm glad I highlighted the cold offset potential to the CPC's general temperature outlook during this first two weeks of March, because this -EPO / cold loading look over the higher latitudes is just not conducive to their success ... particularly above the 40th ~ parallel. This -EPO is not new in the teleconnector progs, either. I've seen it there for several days. There is also a -WPO --> AB phase of the N. Pacific total construct evolving D6- 14, which are both longer/lapsed time correlations to cold outbreaks over N/A in general... It's like we're witnessing the demise of the La Nina circulation proxy right before our very modeled eyes. 'Just wish that had happened on Jan 1 and not Mar 1. To their credit, they've been predicting a rather rapid loss of the La Nina during this late winter through spring, 2023... I guess if/when the onset of this other high latitude stuff, it's a subject for advancing research to figure out if that is causally related, but it should definitely assist in decoupling the basal flow mode. I'm not sure SSW really is part of this, btw, after spending more time evaluating what's happened up there over the past month...different discussion Not sure what all this will mean as we are now entering into the solar donut stuffing machine times like Homer Simpson in hell. Eventually ...the hemisphere in the models seems like they are unaware of that flux just yet ...

I like this mean because as those negative anomalies are saddling through the eastern continental mid latitudes there...the -NAO is actually in a state of pulling back. That is whence those "higher end" events happen - but I'd also point out the obvious, that is true for any event. They all succumb - but yeah...the big ticket items, counter to intuition, actually are fragile and require less negative obstruction to be realized. You know... truth be told, a lot of the smaller events that survive to offer entertainment during the unfortunate circumstance of compressed flow types, those are the residue of a big event - in other words, enough kinematics to actually breath through an elephant's ass.

okay ... good work! But it doesn't help me, nor the the attempt at implied effacing humor of my pointing out my own folly in reading ... knowing you're so helpful, does it .

it's like we need sub-sub-sub forums ... One for Rt 2. One for the Pike west of ORH. One for ORH... one for Boston. One for Methuen... One for southern NH... cuz I keep getting confused why impressions over events are so shitty(glorious) ... then having to have it eventually dawn on me that the last 20 posts were actually from some cluster of shit-outta-luck (charmed) individuals hailing from some focused area ... haha.

Okay, but.. for winter enthusiasts, I think it's cold enough - serviceable. The anomaly products are less constraining on the outlook for me, when the scalar assessments of the 2-meter ambient temperature, and the 850 thermal layout over the course of the total synoptic awareness/evolution...is/are deeply cold enough. I mean, these synoptic parameters could certainly change in the modeling moving forward... we'll see.

Yeah...these progressive pattern embedded systems seem to do that a lot. They end up a day or so earlier than when they were originally picked up by the models, back when D10s

nyeaaah...it's not that virtuous. There's an ah-seeking affect there. No one in here is racing to make an accuracy report for their livelihood. You're right about the marginal aspect - but that's also evading there's some other fulfillment thing we do in this 'hobby'