Typhoon Tip

My bigger take away from these overnight various products ... in whole, we lack antecedent cold. Long version of what/why that tenderizes butts ... Determining this thing's ultimate position in space would be better performed if the baroclinic gradient was not so week. You need that dense, cold medium abutted to a waif warm humid air mass. Example, the 'roids version of that is Dec 2005. The thermal packing between NJ and Cape Cod was extraordinary. In this case? not extraordinary. In fact, less than even ordinary. It's the same thickness and synoptic parameters over BTV as it is over ACK upon the arrival of the mid level forcing(s). The low in the model vision has no axis along which is compelled to position. These aspect feed back on one another. With a better defined baroclinic axis, that focuses a vortex centric UVM (upward vertical motion) in the lower altitude of the vortex medium, which causes height falls over that region, and then the phasing aloft that is concurrently happening snaps into place/collocates and whole thing goes synergistic ...and annuls are written. But here, we have enough mid levels for history but that lacking of those crucial aspects beneath... the low is just physically not limited in hooking W ( Euro). It's probably something like the 1888, not as a total analog ( no ), but that it may be over top warm intrusion. There is time to correct the antecedence colder... Sometimes in these mid range spring systems, they will look this way in the mid ...ext ranges, with warm air wrapping around the top and the cold underneath, but then as the whole show gets closer in time ... sensitivity seems better and the model physics "detect" more BL (boundary layer) resistance ... It's tough, because these guidance' don't put out solutions that are impossible - that's not how this works. No model is a model if they do that - they are the peregrinations of George01's imagination behind a torpid gaze out the window if they do...

It does sort of give me pause, though that these models are not cutting through the morass yet… Most “big dogs“ in history tend to show up early … showing some continuity. It’s like we kind of do and don’t thought it’s weird.

I would be shocked if much more than a third … maybe 1/2 …of that happened given that solution the GFS. Goofball runs so far dunnite

… still manages an upper moderate event for eastern north eastern mass southeast New Hampshire

It’s acting like it wants to just miss phasing… But again the GFS with that slight progressive bias in the mid range it doesn’t shock me. This thing seems like it’s really sensitive.

Frankly… I’m not sure I trust them if they were modeling yesterday at this point.

Yeah it’s decent… It closes off that 500 mb surface there … implies bit of in situ frontogenic forcing. Even hints IVT convergence NYC does well … even though it has tosnow at 12 in./hr to stick anywhere downtown at this time of year in that thermal cauldron of a city

I mean to elaborate a little what Scott just said… It’s like the northern stream behave like it should “IF” the southern Stream was there, which is odd because the southern stream is missing …. so the whole run looks weird.

You beat me to it ha ha

Yeah, that whole evolution of suspicious to me

Yeah, the solution is a little suspicious.

Still quasi-bombs, though

And rainy lol

Jeez y’all come off as mordant while thinking you don’t really sound that way

Fwiw - there’s another interval to this signal … suggesting a slower break down. It’s around the 18th.

I've been harping on the aspect of the GFS' progressive bias that cumulates out in time... As it nears, it gradually reduces that incrementally as the time shortens - it really appears to me like we're seeing it doing something like this. The first aspect it would tend to correct toward short wave lengths, where the more dominant N/stream has the larger integrating force/wave spacing. This next Tuesday's totality, by the way ( for the general reader) is actually more of subsume model phasing. People were trying to compare this to '97 but it would actually be more in the 1978 type of evolution, where the western ridge gives the N stream a nudge S. Combined with the southern stream well times passing underneath lowers isohypsotic resistance ( height contours and shear related ) down she comes and fuses cold core heights with a ton of S stream pwat dynamics ... Granted ... Tuesday's interplay is not nearly as elegant as this above - pretty much the immaculate example. But.. the gist is still the same.

Ends up impressive without it, too.

Well.. anyway.. straight up blend of the GEFs/EPS/GEPs is probably the best way to go for now. Likeable trends on going so we'll see where we go from here.

The funny thing I’ve been noticing with that… The wave length looks too long between San Francisco and Boston. It’s almost like the models are trying to rush this thing to the east… I don’t know if that’s any kind of a sign or anything but that definitely looks like a stressed wave length.

Yeah I was throwing the Euro a bone there some. It’s just that of the two I find the GFS a little more egregious because it was transfixed in its error. I mean at least the euro wended its way to the truth – but I distinguish things like that.

It’s a good thing this is all happening outside and not inside of D4 in the models huh lol

Hey man.. I defended the Euro on that last snow event that did well up your way... The GFS was too far S and cold - from what I assessed - with adamant stubbornness too. heh

Mmm it's an artifact of being captured I would think. This is a integrating event in some of these recent trends... The surface evolution - as we all know ... - ends up hesitating if not stalling, if not performing loops while doing so. But these inidividual members may or may not be fully resolving that ... "partial" in this sense would lend to a NW motion, just not as likely double-back

I would include the 2018 March Nor'easter ( the first of the bunch ...) that year.

Too bad this isn't a week later for disaster enthusiasts... There's a relatively rare Perigean spring tide scheduled for the Equinox this year, and having a system like a blend of the Euro/ICON/KR models ... would pretty much redistrict the entire shore civility from Cape May NJ all the way up to PWM Maine... (whether said civility wants it or not )