Typhoon Tip

For general audience ... a cooler PV domain would result (geo-physically) from a WV contamination, and that quite obviously and directive, results in a +AO. The MJO/warm ENSO correlation is a -AO. So that would imply a statistical break-down wrt these large scaled mass field projections on the winter. That may also infer a negative interference in the intra-seasonal pattern modulation-behavior. ... Something's going on in these PV - see Antarctic. Recent analysis of the "Ozone Hole," after decades of recovery since CFC's were reduced, there is a surge in the size of that behavior, most likely (in science right now) attributed to the Hunga Tunga event. So there's some plausibility as yet to be substantiated, but the reasoning in how it may effect a PV circulation mode during the winter would preliminarily (though increased confidence), suggest +AO base state. Just fwiw -

Noticed three aspects about the rain this next weekend over the last day(s) of modeling. ... tendency to delay ...tendency to suppress ...tendency to weaken All of which can be a part of what I have phrased "model magnification" in the past - more specifically, as the 'de'-magnificaiton correction than ensues in future runs, the above list of morphology tends to occur. So to spell out the metaphor, when events first emerge out at the outer temporal boundary of 'practical' distance ( beyond which the randomization is too large and overwhelms confidence ), the specter of what the model result is at that point in time, tends to be more amplified than what will actually occur. All guidance do this. GGEM ... EURO ... UKMET ... GFS ... JMA... Kevin's imagination, I have not seen any one of these sources free from blame. The reason they do this, they "see" future events as a result of present input interacting in the processing of the physics, but cannot see all the permutations that have yet to emerge in time. Some of which directly negatively interfere, but some actually require wave energy of their own; sapping off the domain ... effectively robbing the original specter of what it needs to maintain - this may just be another way of describing negative interference.. Either way, the result is the reduction over time. It think it is a natural artifact of the technology. One that perhaps cannot be avoided, too. Maybe in the future ...all the doubters of 'flying models' will eat crow but until models can see the catalogue of events that are going to happen (will of god type stuff), those "permutations" are yet to occur as part of an uncertain future. When a given guidance sees a big D9 event, it's just not seeing all the other hindrances that will manifest in time that either cancel or rob, cannot be predetermined. If we further that thinking ... we may be nearing an end of what these models can really do for us in terms of "really" predicting the future. I wonder if there is a way to calculate the "uncertainty of emergent future properties" as a function of time - so it grows... Then, at D11 (say..), we might benefit from knowing that the very best the models will ever be able to do, given the atmospheric domain in question is 57% accuracy ... This type of imagined analytic approach would not rule out or suggest the blind dart scenario, either. It only says that no matter how well a guidance or a person visualizes D10, once applying the 'uncertainty coefficients' they or technology could not have had more than that 57% certitude. D5 improves to say 77%. D3, 97. Daught, hilariously sounding like 'doubt' now-cast is 99.99999999... because there is always some subjective error that is too finite to be seen. The whole model would eerily agree with one of the baser tenets of Quantum Mechanics, that states that an object cannot be simultaneously measured for it's velocity, or position, in space to exactitude. This was going to be a small post ... I've gone and f'ed that up. I guess if you've read this far, bravo. But the original intent was to say that those three aspects above are trying to save Saturday.

Call in the family ...

The winter fantasy thing isn't without a modest amount of pragmatics, actually. That is a winter pattern. It's just set upon a canvas where the heights and thicknesses are about 30 dm higher than ... what we used to experience IN winters before we sold our souls with the currency of Satan's blood - oil. But that's 'sides the point Seriously though, that is. It's good to take note of that Euro ( 06z GFS caved into that look considerably, too -). The usefulness is working out the rust and lubing up the tracking gears. In the heart of the winter - I'm going be concerned about gradient saturation and too much velocity in both ambient westerlies, but also how much the atmosphere converts that wind abundance into actual wave propagation speeds/mechanics. The latter's been a shearing tendency in recent years with this problem...

Snow by Halloween ( yet again ...) isn't just a GFS operational fantasy. There are non-zero useful predictive metrics that signal what's become ( what I think - ) a recurrent autumn facet of CC during these early 20 ... 50 years. And that's a tendency to fold the flow over continents earlier than normal. There is so much latency of heat below 50 N around the hemisphere that the physical instant the Boreal winter season heights begin to fall, there is a subtle but all important stronger than normal jet response. The western aspects of continental geology then bends the flow into ridging potential, ...which during years whence there is a +PNA tendency, together creates a non-linear but very real constructive interference. Boom! Early cold synoptic interludes. I certainly would not recommend wiener-ing oneself over these extended GFS solutions. However, I would definitely warn that everything ( plausible above) is in play and test. This is going to happen in autumns going forward - op ed. This is also new climate tendency/paradigm that does not fit into traditional ENSO this, or polar index that. Those index modes may or may not be favorably coincident - when they are/not, there's constructive or destructive interference, respectively. But it's very hard to parse out contribution from either. This year, I would watch for +PNA mapped over top this 'folding tendency' ... Then as specific events materialize during those last two weeks of October ... we then deal with "model magnification" - in fact we're probably already looking at that in those fantasy range GFS looks.

haha.. 00z Euro spanning next weekend takes all the shittiness quotient of all these bad weekends, extracts their essential oils, and brews up flavor of shitness 10X's more repugnant than any of them...

I studied it for 10 years and I found there was a definite positive correlation with the d(d(cryo). In other words rate of change, more than if it is adding at all. The problem is I had to stop because the land snow entry times were pushing later in the year. Some were mid way through all of September before the snow accelerated in land coverage which skews the data set toward irrelevant if I have wait until the f month of October itself. There may still be a correlation ... in fact I suggest there is. But I haven't bothered to slide the time range to include more of late October and November, which are already (technically) too late and intra-cold season above 65 N. The purpose of the analysis was "leading" indicator.

True ... however, these planetary spikes predated those theorized geo mechanics. Right? I'm pretty sure this all began at the tail end of February and particularly throughout Mar/Apr. This was before OHC was in any kind of coupled state where it would. Meanwhile, the N Atlantic above the tropics flashed warm - 'what does that have to do with OHC from the tropical Pacific that doesn't exist yet?' It doesm't line up very well temporally. I was discussing this in the climate forum. It appears ( by observation alone) that there were concurrent phenomenon taking place. One unknown ( above), with one known - this latter of which may yet add its juice to the punch.

Still ... for me, I like seeing the 540s hydrostats atop -2C at 800 mbs arriving on the NAM/FOUS grid. Hearkens the spirit of the season.

Managed 81 here... Fog slowed matters earlier but we seemed to have made up some ground

Yeah, this synoptic evolution incoming is completely new ... Should not be confused or compared, or assumed to be a part of the stagnated wet/humid/warm persistence of the last 90 days. This is a wholesale new pattern orientation that is setting up because of an obtrusion of +PNA. The restructuring of the pattern is taking place with rapidity, and this storm that winds up over Ontario and the colder regime coming in underneath and all that, is completely uncharted waters. Anyway, the behavior of this isn't like a slow moving trough along 90W with a persistent PWAT delivery. It's more like an active frontal boundary that is tipping negative but will progress quickly through. It may rain hard along an axis (est Berkshire/Greens) but it's outta of there probably in 4-6 hours maybe faster. Showery everywhere else. I'm actually wondering if we may see a low top ribbon echo squall or broken feature thereof, with some heftier wind gusts. There may also be a wind burst in the back side as the pressure well deepens and cuts W and sends an undebelly restoring force across NYS and C/NNE. I've seen louder signals for that, but there is some look about this.

I will say that I lean a lot of ballast in the direction of RONI studies ... Perhaps a personal bias for the fact that I conceptualized something quite similar many years back. That said, it's probably got blurred forcing boundaries. Thresholds here and there, that have to be estimated, or less than discrete in general. Who knows? Right.... like, 20 ... 30% of the ENSO warm legs are chopped off, because ENSO is wading in a pissy world already ... making a 7' monster more like a 6'2" tall guy. What's funny is that the 6'2" guys tend to actually jump the highest - ... fun metaphor.

Too much attempt to target specific oceanic regions as causal in x-y-z pattern tendencies. This is now a relatively new faux methodology that's coming about in social media and Tweets from big reputations, and it's not right. Perhaps not the intent, ... but it sure comes off that way. If we wanna really skeptic as scientist ... the whole flapping oceanic planet is +1.2C on average or whatever it was as of last check. Pretty much in every direction and region, save for small seemingly irrelevant cool offset upweller chimneys. And that would seem intuitively a big red flag not to trust any of it - worth of empirical test and geo-physical review.

This appears to be a pan-dimenson hemispheric scaffold change. Every index from Japan to Greenland is connected to it, and the PNA is the most telling. It is correcting from -1 to almost +3 SD in a matter of mere days. To mode switch a domain space that size that quickly is highly unusual. Some sort of correction event in the heart of the winter would be dialed up by either a series of imports, or ... one giant ordeal. ... In early October, this is unfortunate for storm enthusiasts. The ambient baroclinicity is absent given to seasonality. We may plumb truck loads of 500 mb potential into the 100 to 90 W longitude with limited means to really drill it into the lower troposphere. There is some attempt on the first in the series that gets tangled up with Phillipe's guts. The GFS in particular goes from 990s to 970s mb drifting west of Toronto.. btw, I'd watch for a backside isallobaric wind burst when that bag of low pressure bombs exiting N across C/NNE in GFS recent solutions. Euro's been tamer.

It's probably dietary/metabolic ..which can be related to hormonal changes beyond mid life but its just as likely the Americana/western civil diet needs to be fixed.

haha... sounds important!

Man...that whole 500 mb period between D6 and the end of this operational GFS is like blocking assignment rehearsal for a winter play. Hopefully that repeats after Thanks Giggedy

I want it like today, until after Halloween. Then it can whoop ass winter all it wants ...

We've been getting over top high pressure over the past 3 weeks. Heh... only trouble is, at 560+ hydrostats

There really is a very big HA signal ( I wonder how she feels to know her initials are codified haha) ... Typically, that signal is more correlative in winter ... It's not only not winter, but it is early in autumn in a warmer than normal world - bit of an intriguing incongruency there. That said, there is multi-guidance/ensemble derived whopper +PNA whiplash hemisphere coming at the end of this week. A big restoring event might materialize despite the seasonality of the correlation, just because the shear magnitude of the PNA modality is so huge (supposition). The Phillipe aspect is an add-in, but it's not really what this hemisphere is going to be about. More like a mouse that happen to run across a path intersection with an angry elephant stampede.

2 possibilities... 1 it stays weak and exposed and coughing up a CB once in awhile. This may allow it to get farther west and sneak under the steering level. Then, the trough amplifying suddenly from the northwest attempts a Sandy gobble in. But it would probably by more a rain thump and wind on the E side of NE Maine. Too specific, though 2 it still responds to steering and starts moving more N. In this version ...it doesn't get west of 70 W - not without a wholesale change in the deep layer tropospheric vectors.

It's 85 and dry-ish... I don't think we had a temperature this warm and a DP this low, together, since May... Doesn't seem so, anyway. And that's what sucks. 80 to 85 with DP of 58 is like utopian. 85/74 with roads that can't even dry in the shade because of all that atmospheric loaded water ... and high temp no less, may as well have pig's testicles draped around one's neck. So this happens at the very tail end - not to be a debbie but that kind of blows. sorry it does.

Unlikely.

yeah you can see why the Euro's numbers are robust... IF its synoptic bare any resemblance to that. R/entrance jet over eastern-upstate NY with exceptional divergence vectors with an arriving 850 mb PWAT jet running up it's ass. Someone along the spine of the Greens might redux what happened earlier in the year.

Been warning, yup... It's weird, though, to see a typhoon careen west through the lower China Sea, a stymied MJO bouncing off a wall trying to emerge in 8, ... while the PNA surges to a very high metric...? The first two correlate. The 3rd does not correlate with the first 2.... Given the spatial domain (girth of mass fields) of of those manifolds, that argues for an unstable hemisphere. Interesting