Typhoon Tip

Just be patient ...we may go well above normal during the first 10 days of May

Okay... it has been trending more N, tho. I just hate and despise April because of that sort of arrangement in the skies, a time of year that has a propensity to leave us tantalizingly so close by. I mean, I've seen it be 82 F in ALB, where no doubt ... summer's tang piques nostalgia - if only imagined. Yet at that same moment, I turn attention toward the window and gaze into an abysmal 41 F dead calmness of slate gray abandoned air. Secluded really, as the warmth flooded off the Maine coast having avoided SNE altogether. Those end-arounds can happen, really ... On satellite, it looks like being stranding on an island of misfits. Haha There's something eerily symbolic about that, though, that hearkens to 'everyone except you' There's something similar about that feeling of being rejected or left out.

Well ... in any event, for those paying attention to actual weather on a supposed weather-related social media platform lol ... Looks like the models and their ensemble means et al continue with the royal shits pattern to end out the month. This week there is an attempt to return flow/warm surge back N toward mid week. Unfortunately, it keeps stalling right at the geographical doorstop in guidance, as suggested by the surface pressure patterning out there Thur-Sat. ...Hm, despite that the 2-meters of the GGEM and Euro, which are still plugging the mid 70s will make it at least to interior zones, I'm not sure I'd trust that when the cinema through that period clearly demos the boundary is S of SNE. We'll see... Beyond that, the anticipated -NAO ( western limb variant) is overwhelmingly signaled. Not only that...the elevating PNA, while not hugely positive, does correct some 1 and half SD upward... Those two behaviors would argue for a mean nadir in the flow orienting through the OV. ... Over an annoying stretch of unrelenting days (typically when this happens at this time of year). We would set to hoping that if so, all is somehow transient. That last week of the month turning page into May ... wish I had a destination to seek refuge 'cause I'd have that flight booked.

Next warm surge falls short? Models have been consistently bringing a warm boundary to roughly N NJ by late Wed or early Thursday, then slamming it to stop and holding it there for two days, while as many as three Lakes cutters go west of us. Quite annoying

Heh... if there were ever a signal for a late April snow, what I'm looking at would do it. Seasonal change will do everything in its power to make sure it doesn't happen ... leaving only butt bang weather for a week and a half as the residue. But right here right now there are both tangible and intangible suggestions there. I warned this might happen, with a blocking down wind of a warm burst.. There's both historic/statistical precedence, but also Meteorological reasons to look for that. Well boom! There's a bit of irony in the notion that the warm enthusiast's party will likely result in a cold hangover ...ha. Question is, how much so?

Recovered beautifully here in the interior... Lots of 70 to 75s. Actually better than yesterday in the purer sensible because it's not so bleamin hot

Yeah...this warm burst now has to relay down stream. hmm ...I was afraid of this, frankly, that which has not yet formally manifested, but we'll see. It may be out there. It's the 'rebound hemisphere effect' of now needing to dump all that surplus heat, it gets captured by the mid and upper levels while it is ejected down stream off the continent. There is a -NAO correlation ( time lagged ) when these warm masses of atmosphere end up terminating in the higher latitudes. It's a spring thing, because the flow still has structure - albeit in the process of weakening. The Rosby waves and the general large synoptic scaffolding, will respond to massive dosing of heat at higher latitudes. Such that if the Pacific sends a transitive wave function ( complex - it's like 'implied' teleconnection) signal that situates a constructive interference, blocks are prone to happening. The consequence ( so to speak ...) of these synoptic heat bursts in Feb -Aprils, then steals a chunk of mid spring back after the party's over. And if we think it means a late blue bomb, or even a last gasp an winter? No. That is seldom the case. The vast majority of times it ends up just causing 10 days of 'rhea or just annoying CAA with 38 F nights and windy 63 F days that compete with sun going in and out of cloud - the kind of weather that you can't really complain about, yet is aggravatingly belaying the true warm season... That may be worse psychology at times lol. While 'preemptively commiserating' ... there is a shot at some warmth next week. The operational runs have been off and on trying to push a warm boundary back trough on Thursday...

Somewhere around 4 years ago I was riding the Nashua River Bike Trail, a regular haunt workout option to me - seeing as the trail starts here in the center of town and is close to mi casa. It's a 12.5 mile kick out to the end, which starts a 1/2 mil from my driveway, and ends in Nashua, NH. Closer to path entry points along the way, there is more traffic ranging from an occasional young mother with a toddler in carriage, to runners, to those in cycling gear. But once you get a couple miles between points, there are chances to be alone. It was along one of these bucolic voids, where the path escapes much civility and cuts under forest groves and passes open wild flowered fields, whence I came upon my own startling encounter. It's interestingly wild up there. I had been riding that path for years and tend to know the curves and physical setting girding the path on either side. I've seen land tortoises big enough to mistake them a field boulders, to snappers with 20" carapaces that posture as being ready to bite as you give them a wide birth. A bob cat may bound away, and once a (est) 7', 12-point buck Moose stood there dumbfounded staring at me, like as if to say, 'what the f are you doing,' while I was trying to shew its 1200 lbs of mass off the path so I could continue along my workout. Anyway, I came around an all-too familiar bend, and in that instant just before thoughts become internal words, there was confusion at a giant black blob that was never there before. I was going back and forth, but I think there were options for giant rocks in there some where, until my brain immediately connected that it was a bear ... before I even formulated holy shit in my head. I clamp the breaks and tires locked. The skidding sound of the tires draws the bear's attention. It was still perhaps 40 meters ahead of me, with its giant head and beading eyes locked on me. It leaped across the path ... I remember when it was in mid leap, fronts and backs extended, it was roughly the same size as the path width it shadowed beneath. It had zero interest in getting to know me any more than that encounter. Within a flash it had loped its way deeper into the grove along the other side of the path. I gathered m composure and continued along the way.. and not more than a 1/2 mile later ... so pretty much right away by bike-time, there was a young mother with stroller. I warned her, and she did an about face and start moving smartly the other direction.. I mean...this bear was huge, but... hugely terrified -so it seemed. Timid to the timid. Yet later, when describing the encounter to the game warden, who actually called me to ask questions ... I was told that was the sire ( probably..) they were looking for. Because, there were several moms with cubs in region, and unlike the sire, the mothers do not f* around and will not act so timid if you startle them and they have cubs with them at the time. I was told based upon my description that it was probably in the area of a 450 to 500 lber

yup, re the NAM. We discussed it was probably overdoing matters yesterday ..but blowing it by 30 to 40 is pretty astounding - this is the 2nd time in the last week that model has been overzealous with the llv ... but, it going down now and fact of the matter is, by 3 or 4 in the morning we will have found our way down to what the NAM was selling anyway. So it's really a matter of timing/aggression. That said, it's kind of playing with a loaded gun and unfair, too. The difference between NYC, FIT Ma, and the air temp over Cape Cod Bay/Labradorian current, is three distinct climates really...so a bust here is unfairly extra super primo bonkers when it happens - particularly in April. Flip the wind E and that can cause some truly extraordinary short term corrections.... which it has done in the past. Man, case in point 1998: 91 to 39 in 10 hours in NE Mass. Numero Uno biggest zonked correction ever - that wasn't a bust though... It was very well forecast. Anyway, it's 74 here now and just about perfect. That 93 earlier was over board too much to fast for no acclimation. Same was true yesterday - All history now until further notice.

Was mentioning that comparison early, yeah... This exceeds 1998 by 2-3 F in general, but it's also 2 weeks and couple days later in the solar calendar, during a time of year when 2 weeks a couple days might actually matter. I can actually recall a low sun angle thinking back 2 weeks ...because my dorkiness knows no bounds LOL The quality of the air mass is really quite similar though between 1998 and now. I remember that 91 up on the UML wx lab ON that day the heat maxes, pretty vividly and it's quite similar. Today did feel hotter though here in N Middlesex Co. 93 was the high here in town. This has been one helluva a "synoptic heat burst" worth of wow

breeze or boundary or both got this far ... 81 off 93 two hours ago. It's back to just 'amazing for April' instead of ludicrous

My biggest contention with FIT's been their DP reading. It's consummately below everywhere else, sometimes by as much as 10 F

wait - 90 at ORH ?

I was just thinking about that 1976 April Dr Frank Colby and I spared a few minutes one day up in the weather lab to geek out over the hourlies that they have on disk up there. Or 'had' - not sure what their tech is these days. It used to be VAX/vms and they had their hourly obs for many many years... Anyway, we were marveling over the heat that month at the UML station site, with 92,94,96,95 string of days ... And there was a bunch in the 70s around that ... if memory serves. In fact, the month seldom saw 60s. We then figured May musta rotted in cold hell but it actually stayed warmer than normal right through - though not as extreme.

That 93 is legit... That's been my bounce T for an hr and a half

Relative to climo- absolutely... Very high probability that we will NOT be +30 in June-July It would have to be 110

Today in solar time would be relative to season, roughly equivalent to August 27th. Right now it is 93 here ... which is about 15 F above normal for August 27th happening on April 14! No matter how you cut this up it's sick. This is a hot day in August

92 (pinged 93) ... hottest I've ever experienced around here this early in a season. Unilateral bust ... NAM may yet succeed in manufacturing a later PM BD/breeze penetration but it was too cold on the front side of that timing, either way.

Ha... good metric for us here ...

It's just unworldly out there. We have no wind either. It's dead calm 91 F here. In fact, the DPs up to 53 ... it's a even getting borderline from the combination thing...

Yeah right. can't be underscored enough. I'm stunned we did this two days back to back in the general sense dude. I mean f if it's not 90 again. We don't have any worldly chance at doing this tomorrow, else we'd have the truly rare chance at official heat ... in mid April

There is a front analyzed by WPC but it's not clear it's actually "back dooring" at the moment, and ... not only that, it is no where near Boston. Boston's onshore flip isn't related to BD for the time being.

That all said, the NAM could also be over doing matter so... so there's that too. My experience having suffered the vagaries of April wind over multiple decades, chances are ... we are not sustaining 88 F for very long. It is in fact extraordinary that we are getting two days in a row of this, actually. Synoptic warm bursting is an increasing spring- period phenomenon ( Feb-Apr ), but most of them spike a single day embedded along a week of above normal..etc. This is like "thick" warmth ...in terms of integrate atmosphere energy, this may be up there with 1976.

Yeah.. again, in the stricter principle, there really isn't much of a BD? What we do have is an organizing ( potentially...) very intense sea-breeze/mass restoration moving west. Back door phenomenon happens because there is an NVA ( usually aft of a S/W diving out of Quebec toward the lower Maritime region), and that NVA supplies downward vertical motion, ...which raises surface pressure NE of the region. Then adding topographic features with a mountain range west, and flat "void" east, that air mass has a physical restoration tendency to always try and fill said empty space ... where we all happen to reside. So, the air mass starts rollin' SW ...usually "under" the synoptic look, too - which makes them particularly infuriating. Add to that, said rising surface pressure NE is taking place over some of the coldest water on the planet relative to latitude, further conditioning the air mass colder and colder and viola - the old 88 to 42 whiplash... But we don't really see all those mechanics activelly having take(taken) place... so we are in wait of a precarious scenario. Presently .. we are flopping around in the interior at all of 4 to 6 kt zephyrs, because there really isn't much gradient going the other way. Then adding we have intense interior heating ... there's likely to be a west motion getting going, whether there is a synoptically driven BD air mass involved or not.. The NAM sort of uses that total manifold of factors to create elevating surface pressure from the east/cold oceanic boundary layer, along. And once in place.. the weakish gradient can't remove it. It's an unusual behavior to perhaps conclude what is also a very unusually warm synoptic circumstance.

Quick op ed on this ... ... the present heat departure doesn't mean the statistical connection to the summer - I suspect - that some are tempted to assign. That said, to me the modeling behavior of consummately correcting the D10 to D15 range warmer, in both the non and hydro-materialized thickness, is more telling/or an indicator that supports the warm summer. The reason I suspect so is because the physical make up of these models proven to be missing a predictable factor that points toward more warmth. It's difficult to believe that is CC driven - CC doesn't mechanize models. But, their is something about the heat source and sink, ...particularly now that we are adding the solar flashing over the hemisphere, that hearkens/ if perhaps 'sets the table' for the warm outlook.