Typhoon Tip

First time I've seen the sun succeed at 'eating' a morning cloud layer back quite so obviously. Almost 40, no wind ... kind of napey out there. It occurs to me that this thing coming up tomorrow night, is p-type a matter of contention? That sort of doomed the last thing, in that the BL was 3 to 5 too cold in the guidance.

The only issue I have with this analysis is that it negates ( or just doesn't consider) trend. Trend doesn't stop at the scalar moment of the modeling image. It implies 'reality' is moving toward a different destination than the still frame. Very important consideration in deterministic philosophy in this bidness. In this case, there's been a persistent ..albeit slow, trend NW recently. And there is also a little bit of reservation one could apply to your analysis in that these tools are not confidence-weighted evenly. There is situational awareness and bias that are unique to some guidance. So your blend approach isn't terrible ... it's actually rather good. But, we have to be careful because the application of that cannot drop trend, nor being aware of the constituent member's individual contribution.

Seems like the models are hedging. It's like two ticks NW, then 1 tick SE... and summing all those up you have a painfully slowly, albeit it not enough, trend NW - so far. Just a behavioral ob re the total modeling with this over the last day, the significance of which notwithstanding. The sum total is that we are about as on the fence as we can be at this point. If this tips 50 mi NW in the mean of all, we have a solid high end WWA E of CEF-ASH, with warning S-E of PVD. Probably BW on the Cape just from the shear ferocity of what almost has to gust to 70 jesus. If it goes 50 mi SE, cirrus and wind with WWA on the Cape. It's like go up or down from there. But we're at 108 hours. Typically, we're narrowing goal posts by now. We'll have a few straggling posters that think we'll get a big move <100 hrs, but that actually doesn't occur as often in 2026. However, I agree with whom ever said 'rug pull' awhile ago; this appears to have a higher than typical potential for a short term correction, however that's in either direction. I think there's chance for shorter term bounce NW, just because we have a bit of an unusually noisy situation out west. It is anomalously complex. I noticed at 36-42 hours, the GFS has a spurious almost nondescript beta scaled S/W/jet streak coming in over S Cali...this sucker is a bottle rocket. FF FTW? It whips over the 4 Corners, across the deep south, it catches up to and slices over the b-c potential over EC. The GFS appears to use that for a quicker cyclone response ... the wholesale trough amplifying then takes over. Cut to a 970 mb low that the Euro, because it doesn't apparently see this feature, doesn't end up with - in fact, the Euro doesn't appear to even see this jet streak (right) in the first place. Now, I don't know why that is...or if the GFS is full of shit, or if it is the other way, and the Euro's data smoothing thing might be killing it? But it is quite easy to miss that all but undefinable difference between those two cinemas. Ending up in a profound difference out in time. SO, if that triggering jet feature is - after all- under assessed by 10% while at the same time, all guidance get a dose of it via physically realized soundings and so forth... we get a total correction NW with a monster. If it comes in more invisible, we collapse E. It would also be helpful to this whole ordeal if the models would jack the western heights more. There is a relative maxim in the PNA that has materialized over the last week in the indices, but it's just lacking that much. ugh.

mm not really. It's 5 days away

That really does give one pause in dismissing this... That 'bump' ridge there in Ontario, is actually REX block - it's just less obvious for being weak. The key is actually the Maritime low, because between said REX block and that low, that is a huuuge mangus ton of wave mechanics that has to go some where, when it winds up underneath those two. It's going break on the Del Marva in that progression/extrapolation. If you look at the Euro's 12z run for that same interval above, you can see what it's doing differently ... It's placing the emphasis on the 2nd S/W feature up there in Manitoba. That little piece of shit above, is a massive S/W in the Euro ...but it's not good. It's in a different phase wrt the total continental wave spacing. The lead needs to be the one, which is what the GFS/CMC ... well most other guidance was doing at 12z ... It's why I'm still 50/50. I only admit that the Euro is physically possible - I need to see this whole mess at 84 hours frankly.

That's no moon. It's an addiction

Teachable moment in CC ...we've moved the needle into a realm where we don't snow unless there is a direct coverage/ongoing insert of cold anomaly. Welcome to NJ Might be related to why this winter is leaving and/or left so much on the table as far as threat failures. It's because in order to be said cold, means the flows is compressed and inherently neg interfering. Now that the hornet's nest is sufficiently poked, I'll check back in later for some laughs.

Just add 'the models' to the list and be done with it.

Don't believe the stratosphere's been very well correlated beyond coincidence this season and that will remain that way through spring. We may in fact cool down/endure another cold loading into the continent, either way. So it's moot. The EPO is pretty clearly trying to dip neggie for about 3-5 day span - new index indication that's materialized over these recent last three days of prognostics. When/if so, I don't think keeping the cold W in -EPOs is our problem, not with the flow finding least excuse imagined to consummately speed up, if not speed up ...stretch wave lengths. One of those two appears to always exert ... since about 2010 ( actually, I argue the traces of that begin in the super NINO of 1998 but different discussion). So yeah...the early notions of busting out after the 24th (miss?) are probably going to have to be a roll-back on that idea.

This is the warm up after the 15th ... a 37 F WWA cancellation - priceless

Mm.. the GFS is hugely trended guys - that should be the take away. I realize the dose spilled before it got in the syringe on this run ... get over it. Seriously, needless ( or should be ...) to remind that at 120 hours away, heh. I think until we are safely, technologically unlimited to where 2010 Boxing Day type corrections can't happen anymore, 120 hours is an eternity. Plenty of model runs to fumble around and either fuck this up or bring it back.

yeah... I was mentioning to Scott earlier, I don't believe the problems haunting this Monday event are fundamentally fast flow related. As I put it earlier ( heh, I like this sentence ...), "there something else guiding this system's demise" - sounds haunting, huh. haha. No but seriously, I think this may be a bona fide complexity issue in having so much to iron out in a bag of ass trough in the west. Otherwise, I don't ( personally) see where the other sensitivities could be lurking that are fucking around with this thing. It is entirely possible that a bag of asses gets ejected E and it ends up under performing in a s/w fight.

Heh.. didn't see Brian's post but yeah. Related to that for sure

The flow is not fast ...well not AS fast, as modeled. The gradient is relaxed compared to the mean of winter thus far. That's not it. Something else unseen is guiding this thing's demise. Right now, I'm a 'little' suspicious about data source and shadowing. Firstly, I'm not sure if that's still a thing, or if there have been advances in packing the grids full of wonderful initialization density. I'm inclined to think there's still room to question? not entirely sure, tho. But shadowing is an old school phenomenon regarding assimilated soundings. When there are closely spaced wave mechanics from off the Pacific and/or any other data sparse regions where assimilated data populates the initialization grids, the assimilation may be caused to miss/under assess momentum where there is a lead system in between. Symbolically casting a shadow. This would be a candidate for that in 2006. Not so sure in 2026. In this case, the outside slider S/W coming down off the Cali coast (ends up Friday night's ordeal), may be causing the Monday's to be lost in the assimilation. Believe me, I was 50/50 for a compendium of pros and cons yesterday. Maybe I'm 40/60 now? say... But, I kinda sorta do want this one on-board and physically realized in this case before I go 1/99

The closest winter I ever saw that seemed like it was "un wasting" was 1992-1993. There were really two enormous events that defined that year, and I specifically recall a dearth of activity between, not because much was actually missed - I remember not seeing many opportunities. But I consider that a great winter just because that Dec 9-11 thing will live on in infamy ... It's probably a top 3 life time event for me. Then the late "super storm", which really was rather pedestrian in Acton Ma ... 15" with a 1/2 of sleet crusted over - well...it was huge for 1993. But since then we've been handing out 15"ers like Pez candies so the novelty of that has gone... But just the specter and vitals of that whole storm is probably not getting repeated in 100 years - statistically. Maybe we'll see it .. then future suckers will suffer without. Well, they will anyway as Venus hits. haha. No but there may have been some other events between Dec and Mar that year, but they weren't really under performed. Proficiency was very high.

The thought crossed my mind... The AI/ChatGPT version of this run's saying, 'yeah... there's a vicious storm here but I'm not gonna commit on the western side while I'm negotiating a no-no'

Something else that's been bothering me about these western outlier runs that are bringing the goodies ... they just look unalloyed to the surrounding when so nucleated like this below. ALB with 10 kts of N drift while New Canaan CT with 72 mph roof peeler gusts. First Tor'easter ever observed on the planet. You know how baroclinic/extratropical cyclones are suppose to spread their momentum out of a larger area - hello.

Yeah... god bless all with love and fortune in mens eyes, but there are some that really shouldn't be handed the responsibility of lead off play-by-play game callers. LOL. Between hippies and law enforcement, there's gotta be someone else whom by election is a better bearer of that delicate responsibility.

If the set up successfully gets there, sure.

It's also slightly S-E of previous mean

I gave a list of pros and cons for this in the monthly thread this morning. That content still applies. 50/50 ...

regardless of whatever the UKMET is painting on the sfc chart for this 150 hour outlook off this 12z run ... storm climatology would place a very intense arc of precipitation roughly White Plains to BOS for this kind of 500 mb

The GFS solution is odd.. It's as though it is too intense. It's highly contracted in all quadrants, very annular and focused internally to the axis of the cyclone. If you saw any one of those D8 GFS September hurricanes running parallel to the EC, it would like like that at PGF layout. I guess on the east side it does open up some. But it's like it's overly responsive to forcing very early in the total wave space, and so it then preferences that early location and is thus also overly - if perhaps erroneously - nucleated there. That said, even if so ... that surface solution is within an envelope of acceptable error. It could reposition on the next run ... 50 or even 100 my NW of this run's fix, and still be in said envelope of acceptable error. If we get to within 30 or so hours and all this is still dosing drips like this...then we'll discuss whether it will be idiosyncratically positioning, relative to the deep layer structures, with more confidence as to where.

what the fuck does LBSW mean? wtf does social diversification recognition have to do with atmospheric dynamics -