Typhoon Tip

I suspect this is a PR method though, developed out of a complex human equation containing lots and lots of complete dip-shit oblivion reasons. That is a large spectrum of Darwinisms that range from the higher thinking capacity of the mouth breathers, over to just general irresponsible apathy. Those hashing are not tapping our shoulders. They're trying to save those non-suspecting lives and this method may "solve" that equation above - or attempts to.

Still looks like a remarkably well handled back door front arrives to kill the fun like 9 pm flickering blue lights for tomorrow. It's true though that Thursday should really remove the remainder of flat expanse coverage down to mud and field if today doesn't. It'll be windy warm DP air with 60s out ahead of that front. It's the difference between dropping ice in the sink, versus then turning on the warm water.

Nahhh... everyone lost 1/3 to 1/2 of their snow under 68 F and beating sun, yesterday. Just because you can't yet see bare ground, doesn't mean warmth was defeated. Man, the filtration that goes on in here looks like reality rendering at times

Meh... stop seeking dopa in this engagement, you'll be fine. Seek that blue light psychotropic internet high through bipolar chart joy and that's what you get. LOL Anyway, it looks like the models are opting for something like a typical March changeability more than a real cold signal. And as typical, we've shed the deeper more persistent cold, much to some user bemusement ..., in lieu of cold fronts that rollout in time. You can see that.... 00z Euro's cold behind Thursday front has a smaller integral for amplitude and size than the 00z run from 24 hours prior. I said this was likely to happen... the -PNAP aspect of the -PNA would have a tendency to back off a little due to two aspects: models over amplitude correcting; seasonality approaching the Equinox. We'll see... the best hope for still getting something done before the 22nd ... 23rd ... would be a pinch low scenario. That's when the N/stream's brief knife pulls out, and there's some residual bagginess that then closes off...

That might actually be the most extreme I've seen a pure drainage/radiator night's temperature differences, ever, in this region. 48 at ORH to 31 here in the Nashoba Valley 40 now..

The PNA index could fit an even in there and it wouldn't be an egregious correlation ... However, given to the time of year and the tenor of the guidance combined, those factors lean me to thinking it's more a period with active cold fronts - each imparting testicle squeezes to spring/warm enthusiasts ... while simultaneously not doing jack shit for winter/cold holdouts - who probably would smugly take that as a win because their petty but that's something else. LOL

All springs do this ... possible exceptions being 2010 maybe 2012? otherwise, they never get warm and stay warm. They always lube you up with massages for 2 days, then pour ice water down your pants before running out the back door.

rgem with a bd too

That is a nasty nasty BD on the NAM... has Boston plummeting to the upper 30s on Wed ... 24 hour ahead of the main front. It's probably got boundary layer lag bias. It's the same reason why it can't warm the BL sufficiently at this time of year in general - today, etc..; they've sort of designed a model that over assesses the Ekman stuff. That said... it's also hard to argue BDs in eastern NE at any time of year, let alone f'um March.

60! warmest it's been since sometime in autumn

54 at Worcester... 39 at Fitchburg

Looks on vis loop like terrain induced, then venting down stream. Probably just needs the sun to work on the tow source and then it will dry out?

Perfect maple weather last night... Cold, then recovering for a sunny mild afternoon. My sis lives on 40 acres up in Winchendon and says the sap's flowin' Buckets are drippin good flow rates. Despite the impression of still biology out there, life is showing signs.

That's not what I said so don't "yup" me... haha. I said the NAM may not be right about the magnitude. I also said the NAM could be wrong about the absolute wind direction - if it's more 240 than indirect cooling is likelier confined to SE zones. The NAM is right to cool the air mass that passes over the Bite water region NE of Jersey, in general

In principle the NAM isn't wrong there. It may not be correct about the degree/offset, but if the wind is well mixing and actively SSW across the area ... that's sourced from the very cold Bite waters. It's a matter of how much. If the vector's more 240 it'll be confined to SE zones.

MAV nailed the 20s ... I was doubting that but nice job there Equally handsome could be the recovery ... if so, one of if not the greatest of the year. possible 40 F +

Yeah, I’m not talking about the run itself. I’m just what my thoughts are on that period.

I’d call it an average winter regression I also suspect it’ll probably be not as amplified as that too. Also probably something like five days that sort of fades… That’s going by the indices, but deamplifying some partial has both an established precedence in mid and long range models, as well as fitting the climate of sun getting hotter. But yeah, folks are looking for a last hurrah I would look at that five day window.

+That bold statement of yours is the very reason the world should be very afraid. It still does not resonate enough with people that enormity of raising an entire planetary system, air, sea and air-sea coupled, unilaterally, by a whole degree C, over span of time that is virtually instant in geological scales - but frankly, disturbingly fast even for the single life span of a human being. If that can happen without warning and those zero extrapolated expectation, ... good luck

An indirect way to tell that your above normal temperatures might be these MOS products. It seems the MAV is whack? it's got KBDL-FIT-ASH all in 25-ish for a low tonight. With 45 to 50 F diurnals tomorrow. That seems a little off

It's that window in the indices there... pretty sweet looking solution.

Melt and mud season... Agreed. We lost something like 6" since yesterday just eye-balling. It'd say we have about 7 of granular corn snow left. It's possible we've eradicated enough snow in the next 48 hours to allow Tuesday to not be held down from that factor.

If there's a SSW or S wind flow off the Bite waters there's going to be cooling modulation, however the model's likely too cold to begin with... It's like raise that 7 to 10 F.

Hard to say on that ... Will seems to think we get 10 days of favorable looks out this post Ides pattern but I'm not as confident. Could be. It seems this week's about getting rid of the snow pack ( seasonal recession)... Then yeah, we could certainly re-brick the top soil for a gif. I think we're good for at least that much before truly escaping. But without the geographic pan-dimensional cryosphere helping to continue the enabling party, the sun will begin to both modulate the pattern pretty fast going forward, as well as mangle the days and bust most guidance the standard 2 or 3 ticks too cold as we approach and exceed the Equinox. The early April bowling season is in place every year so that's separate. But the generalized pattern foot is entering higher variability and lesser dependency due to seasonal forcing. But, this +PNA aspect in the index prognostics is not 10 days long. It's a 3 day quiet and quick amplitude. Even the L/W cinema in the guidance is rotating that axis through rather quickly. I'm actually already seeing signatures of rapider recovery back to a flat -PNAP structure out there post the 20th. That's been the tenor of the last 20 years - lessening dependability of index outlooks. Lessening time spans of pattern residence. It's not just the modeling stochastics. The indexes themselves, which are in theory based upon the larger super synoptic mass field and thus should modulate slower than the dailies, seem to be modulating faster than that theory. I could be the technology itself, sort of too much of a good thing without being enough of a good thing... so they create their own error. Or, it's something with CC that makes things more top heavy (latitude) so we're rolling Rossby signature faster. It's an interesting study. But that also means the +PNA --> +PNAP expression could host an event in that 15-19th period, and just not be very well represented ( at this time) in the standard version. I'm aware the AI's are less bashful there. Possible. That's the way these next two weeks look to me as of Sunday morning over -caffeinating

Yeah some perhaps positive feedback there but ... not sure it's enough to offset a white cocained earth. ha... It's a micro feedback science thing, right. anyway, I'm not sure if we don't pancake too. may have to go through an hour or so of that while we cycle through the first boundary layer rotation. yeah but wow, it feels like pithier warmth ... Sun's out here in the last moments so we'll see if the ceiling holds. It's 53/49.