Typhoon Tip

yeah anyway. you can't trust guidance beyond 90 or so hours in this maelstrom of a hemisphere. that goes for anything

Haha... How about, cuz'n it was 360+ hours out 'nough said?

I'm starting to think similarities that are dropping out of the comparison to the 1980s era of doldrums may be more of a coincidence. I was fully sentient then...I remember a lot less speed/velocity stressing in the flow types through that era compared to today. Boned for different reasons but the pay-check is the same.

well like I said a couple days ago. It might help the psycho-babbleness of it all if one sets up their expectations according to this being the new paradigm. there might be a reason we're seeing this leitmotif playing out every winter for the last 10 years or whatever, particularly over the last 5 years. there's been good times interspersed, sure... if look back 2017 or 18 or whatever. but objectively, what we're observing now has been dominant as though it has become the new base-line circulation type/norm. i keep hearing this internal statement, 'when the flow slows, it's too warm to snow'.

thanks support's still rather tepid

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGT_0z/ensloopnew.html appears really only 1 member supports ... P026 But ..whatever. That thing has about as much chance verifying as any given D13 bomb does. Basically none

No one's askin' but ... I do. My 'druthers spectrum' changed as I've aged. I only like winter now if it is cyclonic and interesting. This is not that. No use for just cold at any time of year. Now, unless it serves something interesting? that's different. But making it un-fun to be outside, as it's only and singular achievement is a rotten horrible piece of shit winter. Proooobably? yeah, I'm not here after retirement - b'bye. But for the time being, if it's not going to be interestingly stormy, I just rather we blow torch it all away

ICON's taking a stab at the 00z Euro notion on this 12z run fwiw -

Flower February

Only a 132 hours away ... I guess we give it a shot ( lol, this crew gives 360's an at bat). Still, we are challenged by immensely fast atmosphere. Most are aware by now that this shortens the outer time range where confidences fade to randomness, considerably. Agree with Ryan that blends/ens clusters are the best bet. For now, the EPS does have a vague signal on the 14th, suggesting the operational EC is bit of a jacked outlier ( 00z ), but am noticing that those members are below 1000 mb it seems 1/3 of the members are likely significant, while 2/3rds struggle with cirrus clouds. Interesting range

another in a parade of phantoms

might help the psycho babble if folks finally accept this as the new paradigm

looks like every run's a different focus ... 12 hours, 24 or 36 apart from where it was on the last run, because it's actually a different wave altogether in a general careening buckshot of probably nearly impossible to process s/w swarm

Gotta love the Euro's rendition of that 20th beast... ruins Xmas by rolling up the entire electrical infrastructure into a giant fur ball, then vomits it out to sea. Here we go a pipes a-freezening

add the GGEM's 12z improvement.. what leaps out is the extreme general thickness ( hydrostatic hgts) gradient along which this paltry ( for now...) looking low is riding along. The flow is having trouble "kinking" in time... ad nauseam, because of the faster than normal basal velocity. But this elucidates the high potential should that correct just pubes more so... you'd wind up a rapid deepener, albeit progressive - but who's judging when begging. Just gotta bend the flow in time and BOOM

funny you proffer this sentiment as conciliatory ... I've recently been thinking this exact same "patience" idea, but had 2014-2015 in mind, actually... What happened that late Dec ( after Xmas was wrapped up and tidily ruined with panache ...), is we started getting this torpedo flow with big cold situated just N of our latitude. Systems were riding along the ambient b-c axis, and we did go through about a 10 day to two-week period where we bit cold, followed by quick warm ups to rain...cold, rinse and repeat. I remember posting a sentiment that it was like "playing with fire" - interesting metaphor considering the 'fire' in the context of the times meant that should any of those wave get under our latitude, would make for a sudden change to a whole new world. Well .... oops. Things started going under our latitude - fine idea, then, but ... knowing when that's going to happen, if at all? yeah - patience perhaps... The problem with patience is that nature does not reward for good virtue. That's a human construct. I combat that by just tuning out - glancing at charts here and there for quick diagnosis', and also just to stay in sequence of events. That way I have a sense of knowing when things may finally break right, while at the same time I didn't give the prurient "real" god any satisfaction of having stolen life LOL.

That bold statement of yours, and the chart just beneath it ... are utterly mutually exclusive circumstances and have zero bearing on one another in any analysis that would expose any sort of indicator for some direct causality. This is like I saw a shooting star, this means she loves me

That comes from a NORLUN set up, btw - I thought it subtly ironic that there's been some hints of that in the nearer terms as others sniffed it out. But there, out in the 360-ish time frame, the GFS' 06z has a whopper signal really. IVT with deep heights over head is clear indication for cold convection instability along an axis with convergence underneath. And it's stationary for like 12 hours too. But ... it's also 360-ish hours out in time. It won't be there at all ( most likely ) on this next 12z run. LOL. we'll see

there it is ... the Yuletide mando pattern

GFS is doing that thing it was doing on yesterday's 12z re that 10-11-12 period, where it runs a uber powerful wind max/associated negative tilting S/W up SE of NY Bite by perfect climo track, yet has only a weak primary happy pivot low sitting there over SE Ontario spitting out flurries ...some lame squall leaves New England for it all.. okay -

Granted ...this is the GEFs -derived prognostic NAO curve, and the Euro is not a part of that ensemble system ... Still, these compressed/suppressed/buttfucker issues with soring up the bums of storm enthusiasts circumstances are all remarkably well correlated with this indexes negative phase below - much to the chagrin of what people are wired so deeply they cannot seem to get through to their heads Snark aside, the Euro does seem to a conserving the western limb/-NAO suppressive weight longer than this curve below suggests it should. Not sure what the EPS NAO looks like, but it's probably negative when the Va squish is happening would be my guess. Anyway, if the NAO is relaxing, that system might trend N -

I was too busy this morning but god ... christ am I glad that ...everything there is in weather chartage, did not greet my eyes first thing this morning. Ugly .

We talked about this a bit yesterday ...so what, 5 pages ago? anyway, yeah ...most posters involved in that exchange agreed, we merely "suffer" ( depending on subjective perspective ) through a time that is unrepresentative of that longer termed reality. I also want to point out... last year (and I think a couple of other years since 2020 for that matter) Eurasia over into Russia/Asia itself, went through perhaps counter-intuitive excessively cold periods - if memory serves, they tended be front winter when they occurred, but I'll have to look. It is interesting that despite the global this and that, the empirical/realized data shows that both things are true: The world is both warming in total, while seated within ... there is also gasping cold.

Yeah ... ex GF's heart