Typhoon Tip

This is 21z Tues afternoon on the NAM I'm not seeing a raging argument here for a warm failure on that day ( relative to climo and previous ideas -)

I set that to be 1951 -2020 just to be clear. I didn't say "below" anything. Not sure what you mean there. It was in regards to this tenor that this winter's somehow 'more like it's supposed to be'. Not sure that's wise. Too much data and actual math ( geophysical ) to suggest that is the case.

We still live a world that has been, and continues to consummately over-perform warmth (per verification). We just have been persistently given no excuse not to for perhaps 4 straight months. Today, with it's dense ceiling of solar blocked strata capping us drowned in left over polar inversion, definitely does not represent an excuse to go warm, either. If we bust the inversion, you will go above machine guidance and eat reality by force. Short sleeve shirt appeal over a snow pack occurs once this wiggly red feature wobbles through our region by tomorrow We haven't had a day of 64 F in so long. I sense that some posters doubt it can? some kind of acclimation bias. It's funny how willing folks are to think of this as back to normal winter and referencing climate like this is 1992. Reality check: this was the anomaly. Not the other way around. That's not coming back and you are wrong to perceive matters that way. Don't be fooled by this blue blob of fortunate.

Today's like day one of melt week, 2026 Yeah, we've put up a couple of 52ies recently, but those were dry DP, light wind, sparing the loss rates. Looking at 55 to 65 afternoons with more blow torch breezes ... even some over 40 DPs, lasting until that cold break toward a week from now. Actually looks like the 70 day may happen on Tuesday after all. I wouldn't be surprised if Wednesday morning on the way to work, people notice that field they pass everyday is no longer just planar white. I still have an issue with 70 over the fields but I've seen this in spring where cold drain out of the wooded areas is juxtaposing vividly against air that was not being protected. I agree with the sentiment that there's a window of interest in the 15-18th date range. It's not clear what that will mean.. .in fact, almost anything is possible from a Lakes cutter to a coastal, but there is a transient impressive +PNA bounce through that period.

Forget it ... I've struggled almost in vein to articulate this sort of salience. Crickets. Doesn't get learned. And it can't Because of the whole dopa addict thing? blocks those neuro-pathways. I'm certain of it. It's no different than going into a Methadone clinic and instructing patients to not crave or scheme how to get heroin. The drug rewires the brain such that it no longer has any neurological pathways capable of learning how to stop - and that blocks any kind of expectation that doesn't include getting high. LOL ... somethin like that

heh, we gain an hour of light in the evening tomorrow. Days are getting longer enough that I think moving the clocks won't plunge the morning's back into darkness as the daylight's coming up sufficiently early to absorb that clock move. Of course, what use does an hour of extra light in the evenings actually provide if we continue being steeped in this shitty-shits degrees and soothing mist bs. This "event" ( or lack there off ...) yesterday was really not the material aspect for the period, it was this big high and what's turned out to be an inCREdible pernicious BD air mass...It's slammed all the way down past the VA Capes. The high pressure that set this vomit into motion's long gone and smearing it's guts out across the N Atlantic, yet the front keeps rollin S down there. We are utterly decouple from the deep layer tropospheric synoptics as today's -12C inversion between the sfc and 2500 feet coherently argues. Anyone still living New England right now that has a choice to leave, yet hasn't, must be suffering a masochistic psychosis

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1DoVFtUPa4/

I think the point of the article is to convey the data, not to assess causality - just for clarity. They are pretty explicit in saying so. This last decade's d(warm) was .15 deg C > than the previous fairly stable .2 C increase spanning 45 years. I then went on to offer that the climate curve in pure temperature is a 'serrated' course... 2023/2024 may merely have been a particularly sloped year. The previous delta could certainly return. But ... new accelerations may also take place. Acceleration was proven unpredictable leading 2023. What if this happens over the next year... ? Keep in mind, the acceleration actually took off prior to that warm ENSO event. I don't disagree that 10 years in a vacuum isn't very useful to describe the complexities of an entire planetary system- that's quite intuitive. However, technically the study was 55 years: 10 years vs the previous 45. It doesn't refute the fact of the numbers. As to it's significance, that remains to be seen.

OH I think the storm track's shifted N, frankly. I won't have hurt feelings if I turn out wrong there, but I have the equinox, climatology, and CC on my side here. Look at the sfc cinema on that run. It's one transit after the other down the 50th parallel of the continent. They'll drape strong cold fronts, sure. And probably some labored warm fronts ahead that drizzle at 34F. ...all keeping us from being "warm warm" like you're intimating, but I'm sort of leaning on the first step out being a coherent retreat of the storm track. We can still get a wintry event via anomaly relative to that, or bowling season related, etc.. but those are by def fleeting.

The last two days worth of GFS operational cycles have been doing this sort of look out there in the la-la range ... new leitmotif. I've found in the spring ( and autumn with cold looks, too - works in either direction), these longer range charts might actually carry some principle value, not daily or per se prognostic skill. Those are two different things. One's conceptualizing a synoptic potential at longer leads, the other is deterministic. Anyway, this next week's "failing" warm up was really exposed similarly to this above... when it too was a long lead. But idiosyncratics about the late winter/early spring hemisphere emerged to suppress, more so then corrected. In other words, I wonder it the lower latitude planetary wave distribution (which has longer residence ) is actually a warm HA - cool Baja - warm SW Atlantic basin... It would be sitting in wait for those "idiosyncractics" of late winter and early spring to pull away...

I know what you're getting at... It's the difference between a well mixed warm sector with amorphous WCB trafficking strata and more DP related warmth. It's 64/57 below the warm front and E of the main b-c axis. That kind of warm up is impressive probably more so in the DP/ thermodynmaic quotient. The kinetic side of the temp is hugely above normal but not out of control in this kind of warm up. The other kind, the big dawg warming events that are more index correlated ... those are ridge dome deals with larger scale DVM compression through an unseasonably early 850 mb to surface kinetic layer. The actual thermodynamic quotient of the atmosphere is surprisingly low... 75/27 type thing... Moisten that air mass and it's 44 F beat the red head step child weather. Those kind of larger planetary wave things are related to the loss of polar index/mass field modulations on the mid latitudes, and when the air is dry and there's 850 mb anomalies rattling around in the ridge, the kinetic ceiling is high. Which by the way...either tends to proceed a -NAO burst. All that warmth then terminates at high latitude and there's a height growth up there.

On the brochure for why you stay away from New England springs it reads, "It's great! Warm enough for nothing interesting but cold enough to eff us from nice weather. This is for Mar-early May."

Agreed...this is what Will and said a week ago... probably just ends up no side of the warm season/cool season debate taking a trophy

Agreed .. if using just just climate, but therein is an interesting consideration. Part of climate practicum is being aware of recency, without it being a recency bias - tricky difference there... But over the last 10 or 12 years, recency has verified something like 1/3 or more of the Feb thru Apr periods as hosting an exotic early season warm event. 80s dude. With warm fronts up near Baffin Island for f sake. I've seen that happen ... yet never saw that happen in the previous 40 some odd years of my life. It's a new thang, man... get jiggy wit' it. Or, has that stopped. I don't know, but recency has demonstrated it's no longer merely plausible... it can and will do so. So, what the models were showing 7 to 10 days ago was another one of those crazed potentials - or at minimum, suggesting as much. Couldn't dismiss it out of hand because of recency. Not really hard. There were several runs back then with 582 dm height contours safely N of Logan's latitude. But like you were saying .. idiosyncrasies that are equally ( obviously ) important raised some flags.. Canada and so forth

Firstly, "I" not comparing anything. That's a cite from the article. That's what the quotation marks mean. Secondly, it is what it is... The numbers show that the rate of increase rose from .2, to .35. you have a problem with fact of the numbers?

Here's a fresh itch for deniers to scratch https://phys.org/news/2026-03-reveal-significant-global.html "Over the past 10 years, the estimated warming rate has been around 0.35°C per decade, depending on the dataset, compared with just under 0.2°C per decade on average from 1970 to 2015. This recent rate is higher than in any previous decade since the beginning of instrumental records in 1880." Almost doubling the previous 4.5 decades of d(warm)/dt rate during the last 10, leaping from .2 to .35/d Probably 2023 has big arithmetic weight in that, considering it was unilateral whole degree C among all systems on Earth, air, sea and coupling air/sea. It does make me wonder if ... suppose over this next 8 years there is no sudden wholesale planetary leap by another whole deg C, doing so all at terrifying once, where the "density" of the species ignores the eye popping significance again: Would the next delta settle back below .35C? I suspect there is a rather larger chance in the total probability spectrum for that being the case, because looking back at climate change of the past/geological inference, the climate does not move up or down in smooth graphical trajectories. There'll probably be simmering increases that "leap" every once in a while. If you catch one of those years in your decadal data set, you're deltas will boast ( or perhaps "roast" heh ) a bigger change. The climate graphs are "serrated" with intra-time span periods that dips shits use to lout the planet's cooling off, or twist that to prove the warm data was faked... or whatever they need, while hailing from a position of really no much formal education and/or proven higher reasoning ability in the matter whatsoever ... so we should really allow them to guide destiny of humanity. Yeah!

Yeah I took a more discrete look at the ensemble means ( all three) and there's a lot of suggestion there that the eastern arm/warm frontal position never gets N of LI across the 11th. 1030 .. 1035 mb high pressure over Ontario amassing its way E into Quebec doesn't exactly campaign for blasting a boundary N of Fryeburg Maine, either, so there's not much there to pick apart. If the whole scope of it all changes, then fine. But as is, no warm up at all NE of mid Jersey next week. Next

Probably be an early heat wave in April

Too much PV strung out across the Canadian Shield for me to like big warm ups along the NP-GL-NE garland. I mentioned this over a week ago, when that was in the guidance ens longer range means; because of that the warm ups should be held in check. I called it melt and mud season. I now wonder if we get that much but will hold for now. If the former should prove more poorly/unseen confluences causing wedge highs to undercut ...no shocker. I've also been observing these models runs ever since... inch by inch have been eroding/rasping the tops off the N latitude of the warm bulges. I don't think the aforementioned PV constraints are entirely unrelated to that sneaky correction tendency/leans.

So yeah ... the Euro's ens system's had a hard-on for flipping the continent toward a strong +PNAP just after the Ides in recent runs. The entire PNA domain may only be partial during that 14-18th period, but who cares... if there's a deep trough transient in the region that's all it takes. If that were the only guidance available, that's probably a risk period. It may be .. it's possible the EPS has a better handle on the mid month than the other ens systems. Which don't show as robust of a +PNAP... In fact, their Pac --> N/A relays are more neutral in the total PNA character, conserving more speed/stretched wave lengths in the GEFs/GEPs.

That's an anomaly out there right now. Low grade but it is ... 27 dead air capped over by strata protecting a fresh inch of mixed glaze and sleet is more Jan 6 than Mar 6... As an aside ... I'm assuming based on recency that when the monthly mean is released by NASA, Feb will have completed the trifecta of core winter months all being well above normal, globally, while a small node of isolated negative anomalies - of only two or three covering the whole planet - will be situated right here. This is a blessed year for winter enthusiasts within said repeating oddity.

Noticed this too... most home sites up here crashed 5 or 6 F in 20 min just after 3am... dove down. 32 ... 33's were 26 by 4 am. All and all a minoring gunk event. 1/2 to 1" of sleet here. It's white though so there's probably a fair amount of low level needles and poor dendrites mixed in but calling it a sleeter

Tuck/ptype came thru a few minutes ago Flashed over to all sleet

This thing has a 31.9 straight rain "just realized my calibration musta been .02 degrees too cold all along?" look about it. Wouldn't be the first time the NAM sold big QPF from a little critter. heh we'll see