Typhoon Tip

Reposting other people's tweets is such a bore. jesus - It's not like we haven't already discussed the exact same shit, with more zeal and sophistication. Yeah. We know already

I've noticed that of the two, the AI GFS tends to warmer overall synoptics than the AI Euro by smaller to mid options.

Heh ...that thing for the 4th turned ugly on this Euro. 24 hours ago that was a moderate fast moving snower. Now it's a 48/47 misty rhea sector under a CNE transit. Yuck Rather the fucker shoot up the St L and balm.

There were two periods to this warm up... The first being a contentious argument between winter and spring that begins really Sunday and lasts trough the 9th or so. The second being an implied if not explicit very warm couple of three days between the 10th and the Ides... This 12z GFS is attempting to discontinue the latter of the two as a brand new reconstruction of the continental synopsis by the 10th.

His point has merit though. Related to, the definition of extremes is getting diminished by increasing frequency of them. Some would like to hide in the cozy euphemism that it is just cycles of nature playing out, and the gaslight of that evasion of reality is that yeah .. nature does have cycles. But excluding that denial tactic ( which is either amoral, a straight question of competent intelligence/education/etc, or a mash up of all), the frequency increase graph is matching the CC graph... sort of like a Keeling Curve for events, not CO2. haha. Nice cozy fit. 'Sides, math has already demoed that extremes increase in a d(climate). Tongue in cheek aside... you almost feel better about getting a repeat of the "extraordinary" now, than you would living in 1990.

That looks really cold Monday afternoon through Wednesday. Monday's eve is steeped in a sneaky Montreal Express; very efficient transport of low level syrup from western QUE/E Ontario. Thickness say 520 to 525 but the sounding may be more upright with the coldest, relative to normal, being the lowest 300 mb space of the sounding. It's all happening over a pan-dimensional snow pack, too. I bet we decouple and see (the season's last?) -0s lows in the interior around 4 am Tuesday morning. Might even call that the local pattern nadir, and it's rising in principle through the 10th after that.

Man... talk about radiative cooling .. all the way down to 3 degrees at FIT

This has gotten smeared a bit. For me, the warm up wasn't really until the 10th all along. The hemispheric move toward that destiny takes some work. Begins spanning the first week. These overrunning looks are really just systemic consequence in transitioning from a winter troposphere to a warmer one. That's bound to be noisy/error prone in guidance as to what happens and when. But one thing we are seeing is that the warmth likely wins by the 10th, amplitude of which to be determined. How long it lasts out there is unclear but obviousness to the time of the year would perfunctory argue that it regresses at some point before Apr 1. The indexes are 50/50 at this time... 2010 and 2012s can happen, but we probably need another 50 years of CC before those become more common haha

It won't be that way ..c'mon. People are just angst/frustrating the inevitable ending of winter, just like every year, so their venting by overselling the downside and scapegoating spring as a means to vent. Ha. And yeah, folks are just having fun with whoa-ism hyperbole, too. Still, there'll be good stretches. It is true, the bad stretches can be, and probably will be, particularly bad at times - made torturous whenever the stuck Farmington front separates 38 F in Lowell while it's 70 in NYC. But there'll be d-slope dandy days once in a while. There could also be one or two ridge anomaly patterns along the course.

I’ve not been sold on this being more than melt and mud season. I don’t like the fact that the smeared out polar vortex is on this side of the north pole; it inherently means that we’re gonna have a compressed flow and fast flow in southern Canada. That’s a recipe for wedging… That’s always been there. It doesn’t mean we can’t get super warm but it just makes it really dicey wouldn’t feel comfortable going for that at this range.

The sarcasm was lost to everyone that reacted to that.... ...I also think it's interesting that those that reacted are typical

How about that blizzard in 1982 or 1984 ... ? I think one of those had high Ts crashing through the teens while that was going nuts. My uncle at the time told me the Charles froze back over by the following morning... short lived of course.

Oh my bad. I'm always scolding other people for doing that. ha it's heading into the morning of the 6th, so in a week.

The CMC is the only other operational standard model that isn't suppressed with that. The AI versions are also on board. Given recent performance of the AI's overall, I reluctantly give a nod to them because regardless of the fact that we don't get to know exactly how they actually come up with their solutions... we are stuck with them Anyway, it's an interesting "little critter that bites" look there. Huge March diabatic assist, couched in those 550s thickness rubbing up against LI latitude, whilst cold air banked N. Lifting that air over ... [ lotta of science words ] ... where it snows it has a shot at over performance. It's also been on and off the charts for a several days of the extended. Big con however is that the present EPS and GEFs ens means are pieces of shit with that and all but don't even see a little critter, either. More like a gnat on a windshield

Oh it'll be true in 200 years... heh, whence the Boston and NY City skylines are sticking out of the ocean like old mooring poles of an ancient abandoned harbor.

Well yeah ... everything of atmosphere is thus integrated in/by the same state of being. It has to be a part. That's just physical math. Kind of obvious. But ... you know how that goes, snow is cold so it's gotta be wrong I mean seriously... rain snow dogs and cats, it all falls through the same circumstantial ambient atmosphere. What ever the atmosphere is, the rain inherits. Beside, it's academic anyway. Science ( and common sense/intuition for that matter) of the atmosphere: PV=NRT dictates it will hold more moles of H20 gas as the T goes up. So it's been raining more where and when it rains because of availability. And ... snowing more too. This is the thing that some folks ( I feel sometimes...) forget. The WV increase aspect. Everyone else in society just have trouble equating cold winters to a warm causality. Deliciously designed by Gaia, so that the offending species cooks themselves out like an oven set to the clean end of the dial. HAHA There's been a marked increase noted globally whence single events equated a substantial fraction if not a whole season's worth of loading. We could even argue this just struck home. We're above normal snowfall in the region and some 70 or 80% or more of that is from just two events. I'm not sure how the numbers break down exactly. It's a glib example so tfwiw. That enabling sarcasm was really more about the seasonal temperature stuff, though. Like this recent Jan; Dec did this too. Caged eastern/NE U.S. in cold.

This winter's been just morally repulsively enabling to CC deniers in this region of the world. HAHA

To Will's point from earlier check out the 12z GFS's eastern Canada high 1050!

Or just question the compos mentis in having this CFS model even in existence too . heh.

the 12z "ICONt model anything worth a piss beyond D4" guidance ( so tfwiw - ) has a nasty ice wall signaled for the 6th. The GFS spent a couple of runs doing this recently too. Think it abandoned the idea at 6z however.

Just for fun ... but if your a spring enthusiast lookin' for a dopa hit, check out the CFS for March 12th

no kidding. 100% of possible so far down here. MET MOS 41. Noooormally I'd suggest at this time of year we add the perfunctory tick or two to the high, but with all this white shit underneath ... DPs are low so melt will be slow but the sun will breach that critical angle for maybe 1.5 hrs at zenith this time of year, and that becomes more of a direct melt assault for that time span. Probably a lot of dripping and some street gutter brooks at that time. I'm ready... I could use a 55/48 overnight rainer to really eat this shit down. We'll cross the flooded bridge if/when that happens.

2016 - 2020 seemed to feature a balm blast every Feb, Mar, or Apr in that stretch. Just sayn' not sure what the conversation is otherwise haha

It's an interesting op for temperature nerds like me. I'm hugely into the diurnal recovery stuff in the spring... for some weird fetish. ha This snow pack is pervasive and deep, and fresh and white and like a mirror. Albedo is about intense as a second sun... astronauts in orbit have to wear sun glasses when passing proximal out our earth coordinates. That will impede some heating potential in a static atmosphere. But this atmosphere should be moving some... not sure how much that mixing offsets (if any) any of this. There's some competing processes there for negative and positive feedbacks. Interesting. I suspect we are colder at night in the interiors when decoupling these three nights. Where cold accumulation over a cryosphere is deluxe proficient and so forth.. Then in the mornings, calm with nape sun but 900 feet over the tree tops, it's WSW flow moving along at 15 to 20kts.. The NAM sort of suggests this inversion offset to warming potential - tho taken to make the example, only. The BOS FOUS grid 54000843631 00714 182013 43030400 60000785726 00010 162412 42040500 This is Saturday at 12z (7am) and 18z (1pm) for Logan. The wind there ("2013") is SW to WSW at 10 to 15kts in the middle boundary layer..about 500 feet over top the Prudential Tower, at 7am, and persists at 1pm. The set of bold on the right is the temperatures at three sigma levels (distance from the ground in atmospheric pressure): 980 mb, 900 mb, 800 mbs. You can kind of use these as loose proxy for various interpretations, for and against.. In this case, note the 980 ( near the ground), is 03. That means 3C. At 900mb, about mid way up the boundary layer, it is a degree warmer at both intervals. That's proooobably the NAM being "indirectly aware" of the limitation at lowest levels due to albedo feedback. I don't think the model does any kind of discrete environmental initial sampling like physically asking whether atmosphere is standing barefoot on a frozen puddle, but it probably is getting a detection at the grid scale for some limits, some how. I'm not sure... but, with a intense albedo in the region, some limitation intuitively fits. Regardless, Saturday ( and the RH levels in this data above suggests mostly sunny), will have light winds that at times is seemingly calm, with nearing equinox sun power capable of burning Aryan youth. It will be the first day that felt that way since probably last October.

Oh yeah ... BD madness too. In fact at a larger seasonal consideration, I'm wondering about that April/May period with the local SSTs being down.