Typhoon Tip

Not "right", just asking the question. But yeah, ... need to keep in mind 80 F is ahead of climo by a considerable margin. I've seen several of these since the big one, Mar 29/30/31 1998. We hovered around 90 those three days of lore. Jaw drop early heat. Prior to that... never. I never had experienced, in my life, temperatures exceeding 80F prior to May 1sts. I've lived in two regions of the country in my time: SW lower Michigan; SNE. The climate of these two regions are quite similar. Prior to the last 20 years.. cold winters, then continental sub-tropical summers, with wildly variant transition seasons in between. Both are getting "climate traumatized" in the last couple of decades...but excluding that for a moment, there are subtle differences... Namely, winters tend to be drier out there, and perhaps a modestly colder but not sensibly or even geo-physically significantly different. SNE tends to more proficient snow fall when it is actually snowing. Then of course, Michigan deals with Lake Effect activity in the winters. I left the Michigan climate behind in 1984 as an early teenager. So obviously the ballast of my climate experiences in life are SNE at this point. That said, neither region did I experience or observe 80F in Mar or Apr, prior to 1998. Since than, I've seen 80 to even 90F become "occasional" to Mar and Apr's. SO, tho it is way early ( still, with a light cough), it's happened enough for there to be some expectation to "get on with summer once winter ends". It's like we're in climate interpretive limbo

His linear, arithmetic approach to the question is not how nature works. He doesn't appear even aware of "synergy" in the system, emergent properties of complex systems that are wholly dependent upon the interactions of products, that cannot be very coherently pre- assessed or predicted because they do not exist until they are manufactured by the system. A+B --> A' C+D --> C' ; A' + C' --> A'' where A'' is the synergistic bi-product. If we really wanna roll sleeves in how nature works, A, B, C, and D, are all partial derivatives occurring in time - it's really more like d(A)+d(B) --> A' d(C)+d(D) --> C' ; d(A') + d(C') --> A'' We've been talking about this for years at this point in here. The increased frequency of 'extra special' heat waves, Globally, surpassing all predictive tools ( sometimes by very large margins ), have already been denoted as "synergistic heat waves" in various climate publications/among the compendium of accredited sources. There's probably going to need some discrete reanalytic study, but it's much more likely that the heat in the SW U.S. during March was a phenomenon of this ilk.

Curious if today busts MOS by a bit. MET/MAV are 78 to 82-sish along the BDL-FIT-ASH arc here in the interior. +14.5 C at 850, and the mixing layer appears capable of being that high today ..., extrapolates to about 27.5 C at the 1000 mb hash on the skew t plot, and that doesn't include the slope to the 2-meter T. Probably 30 C at the absolute bottom if/when these skies remain this sunny along with these other synoptic circumstances. Deep layer flow is WSW like this and not over-bearing DP whilst a 50+ launch should be 84 or 85 to allow April to force a conserved high. A month from now I'd even go 87

I'd like to see a couple more runs with a modicum of realized continuity on that. The Euro and particularly GGEM the most, appear too conserved ( to me ... ) wrt a wave ejecting E through a ridge trying to amplify at that time. The GFS, pains me to admit ... is damping that waves ability to materialize that feature; which in the total synoptic manifold/evolution over those days really argues it should. Anyway, so the former rides a mid level wind max over a series of stacked outflow boundaries and oatmeals a Miller B out of 1010 mb layout... okay -

mm... storms turn right. I wouldn't be surprised if Mohawk Trail initialization starts peeling S ...sending more anvil up our way.

I was shocked to see the overnight NAM solutions back off the Wednesday afternoon BD arrival for eastern region. I think what's actually happening is that there isn't a ton a synoptic support/structure for genesis and subsequent motion in this case. It appears the models have been handling rain cooled air. There's are periodic/ nondescript convective pulses of QPF running W-E up in central and NNE, and coupling outflow with GOM oceanic cold is causing subtle +PP discontinuities. They can be real though.. but seeing the NAM back off is a red flag that convective logistics with outflow is problematic.

Bump for extension

Well there's a statistical history for a time-lagged onset of -NAO, after warm anomalies over the eastern continent. The snow in October 2011 was in fact preceded by a week of warm anomalies mid month that just summarily relayed into western limb blocking and history became so.. Just one example in many. Some of the March snows in late 20teens were also preceded by early warmth. etc etc Not mentioning snow because I think it's gong to snow, so don't go on me. I'm just mentioning to emphasize the evidence. A colder regression before a true seasonal escape is a scenario that has some precedence.

we've had snow in the air in interior SNE a half a dozen times since 2000, in the last 2 weeks of May. something that was not occurring nearly as frequently in the 200 years of white man climo before that. There's a reason why CC contributes to that... papers written. start the fight .. now!

that psychology doesn't care if actually happens, Jer' haha. c'mon

Clearly a warm frontal jump underway... Most location sprang from 60-64 to 70-74 in the last hour out of no where, under the same intermittency of cloud and sun splashing. Pretty representative temp bounce resulting

Thursday's a lost cause... Not surprising. It's April. Not sure what part of a April 15 anyone's expectation would be any different - to the straw man... When I saw the model sale over the weekend for 6 or 7 days of unabridged 20+ dailies while maintaining a polar boundary as stationary from S ON to a Bar Harbor Maine, I pretty much was going bah ha ha ha. No purchase here. I'm sure it could happen... but just circumstantially with both numerical climate, the recent many weeks of trend, and my own hatred from god, that too much weighted dice.

12 NAM is about 39.8 F Mass coast Wednesday between 21 and 24Z while it is 84 in ALB and about 90 at LGA. Welcome to Labrador's rectum

Progress ... some sky lights unzipping. I just hate it when these cloud packed mornings do this and waste days. It's a spring thing...

...Northeast... Rounds of thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and evening within a warm advection regime. MLCAPE should increase to around 1000 J/kg within a moistening low-level airmass. Strong deep-layer westerly flow and steepening low-level lapse rates will support isolated strong wind gusts across the region. I wouldn't be shocked if the Marginal gets extended E and a smaller Slight region gets embedded..

Too bad we don't have better lapse rates Tuesday afternoon because that looks modestly interesting given the other synoptic parameters. W to WNW at 700 mb, SW below 850mb is a directional +helicity. About 20 to 25 kts +d(v) between 925 and 500 so not great speed shear. But I said "modestly" heh But a front is approaching into a DP anomaly that pushed its way up to S VT/NH latitudes in most guidance. > 60 F, with ongoing temperatures 80+. This is a June CAPEd air mass smeared up under an impulse cutting through N VT/NH late in the afternoon and evening, arriving after the morning and early afternoon were baked under more sun than clouds. As an aside, tomorrow is going to seem out of place. Anachronistic because the landscape is still lagged lagged so far behind what people typically associate with air of summer aroma. Anyway, the Euro still sniffing out enough instability and a mechanics to ignite broken lines of coherent convective QPF structures in these charts.

Need the sun... WPC's analyzing a warm boundary danging NW/SE over mid PA/W NY. That's 600 mi away. It may mix out and reposition NE. Sometimes that happens where you get warm front jump. Could... It's one of those situations where there's a WSW flow at all levels so limited mechanical resistance. If not and it moves the distance tho, we have a ways to go before we get into any kind of air mass latency assist. That means we're wholly dependent on the sun to recover from this 47 to 50 F blegh. Also, folks should count on Thursday being an eastern region wide bust because Mets try to fight (unsuccessfully) the inevitability of 150 mb deep shallow slab of BD incontinence. Heh. The upshot is that there are some models not as cold porn as the GFS' lvl details and if one of those worked out, you get pleasantly surprised.

If we don't start seeing some sky-lights opening in this pan - dimensional shit show on morning satellite I may be inclined to take the under on machine guidance. MET/MAV are still 68-73, and it is early ... so we'll see. Incidentally ... both are 78 to 84 tomorrow and Wed along the BDL-FIT-ASH-MHT axis. actually, MET's 73 in NH on Wed.

It's really super shallow, too. The 850 mb temp and wind layout really doesn't even speed up over that. It's all from 925 and lower

Sides, that doesn't look "ruined" to me "as is". It's probably a waste of time to discuss the snap shot, particularly at this range, but for shits and giggles.. we are still 558+ hydrostats when that front episodically slips S. It's not like that's we 540- bisecting Maine.

not to be a douche but I warned ya. It said this couple whatever days ago that it's very precarious given both our climatology, but the season's persistence/behavior, to sustain a stationary boundary with +PP running E of Ontario without it collapsing S. It may even go back N... ? sure. I just would be duly impressed if we actually got 5 or 6 days in a row of 70+ weather. Not given our climatology of mid April alone, but then including the way persistence has also been over the last 7 month, heh. That'd be pretty fantastic

That was an incredible heat wave... It was also in the 90F range in Eastern 2010 (2012) weekend. Heat in April has a bit of an advantage - which is quite counter intuitive, I'm sure. It's because the soil moisture over the continental expanse is wholesale not yet a seasonal source in adding modulating water vapor to the atmosphere. This latter aspect will help keep temperature side of the T vs TD from getting out of control on .. say June 20th. We're still going observe most heat post Apr/May than during ... but, the advent of the April or May heat, from the OV to upper MA/NE region, is really a separate phenomenon to either CC, or the "standard" warmth that spreads into those areas as we work deeper into summer. This is a nuanced aspect that will likely be conflated with other factors ... improperly... by those that are not aware that this is a valid phenomenon, due to water vapor challenged being timed well with a warm 850 layer type of synoptics. Maybe we could argue that sets up more frequently now? no guess. If we go all the way back over a 100 years, there's been these separate events.

2 meter T/NAM graphics were just a non product it was so bad. Not sure what the MET had ... I seem to recall 67 at BDL ( I routinely check there, KFIT and KASH because that arc includes me), and 63 at KASH but don't quote me. I only glanced and tossed 'em. 77 was the high in town here and 76 at the Oxbow ob 2 mi as the crow flies/NWS site. bad. They may actually do better tomorrow in the d-slope.

yeah...this has been my experience with them over the years. They tend to not be significantly better than a coin flip beyond 14 days. Maaaybe some residue of usefulness very early in week 3 then seeya

So does anyone know how these multi week products are derived? You should know if you use them... heh. Kinda like oh, I dunno, AI GFS. I'm just wondering in pure speculation if these may get increasingly more climate weighted out in time.