Typhoon Tip

Ha... it could show progress, actually. Like even the populace is getting their minds around the notion that GW is as much about huge variance ( to wit, 'cold' is part of that), as it is the actual warming itself. There's a compendium of reasons you and I know that the general population doesn't really have to - just that they know the variances are bigger. That all said... I don't think it represents progress in this case. LOL Maybe what it represents is when this particular etho-chamber social media nears apoplexy over the fact that it doesn't seem to matter what index says this, or pattern says that... or Met extols the virtues of their own brilliance ... blah blah. 'Where's the fucking 7 contoured hornet parked on near Block Island!!' One raging a battle against a 1040 mb high pressure over Moose Turd Ontario wouldn't hurt. haha. Have it followed by a trough that offers another toke off the blue-light (internet chart) pipe after, too.... all that. \ So frustrated that we're willing to through GW into the reasons?

It's amazing how warm those springs were ... Not sure if there was specific cool waves along the MAMs but I don't believe those offset the warmth enough to make them average? interesting

With regard to assessing the pattern trajectories, only ... changes took place among the ensemble systems overnight bearing different implications than those we'd been discussing over the last few days. Short version: Intstead of going form a -WPO hybrid/stuck resonant pattern breakdown, into an at least low amplitude +PNA ... the cinemas now are relaying the former more directly into a -EPO. Longer version: The GEFs mean, in fact, went hugely amplified with it. I kind of kick myself here ... a little. Because the GEFs was hesitating all along. The nightly EOF calcs for the PNA was always the least +D(PNA) of the three. Then the overnight's went hard toward a reason why. This is the two-day total change spanning 348 to 300 hours out That does not represent a low amplitude +PNA. That is a dominating -EPO hemisphere there. I call that a big and sweeping change, because the implications are not the same. Yes, yes ...obviously, this is 300 hours blah blah blah... however, it matters if we are in the business of extended range/early risk assessing, which falls out of pattern recognition. Low amplitude +PNA will tend to host a different spectrum of risks compared to those correlated to nearing cross polar flow amplified -EPOs. I'm sure by now people are ready to pounce at those difference ...go for it. But, in the meantime, I strongly suspect the reason the 6-10th period is getting seeming blurred and less coherent as we approach, when in theory is should be getting better, may be tied to these sweeping changes taking place. 6-10th fit the PNA expectation for the last 3 or 4 days nicely. Above? not so much. So there may still be a window ... didn't wanna get into specific event coverage but I will just say, that period is still in the inflection window between the -WPO break down, then this emergence above. There could be an opportunity in there. Here's the EPS and the GEM, showing the same move toward a higher amplitude -EPO. The EPS shows the move but's subtler, admittedly... I don't think it necessarily diminishes the suspicions though, it still moved. It just all smacks pretty hard like we're heading for a different paradigm than we may have thought, one with a different spectrum of risk correlations. Colder in the means is one implication ... the best correlation over any attempt at a specific event, that's for sure. But I also want to remind... it was stated over the last couple days that this change is fluid/in itself, changeable. We basically were higher confidence of moving away from the erstwhile -WPO/hybrid weirdness... Where it ultimately goes ..heh.

Or actually … suppose it did stall/loop, it might’ve occluded and I’ve seen rad shred really quickly when that happens - it probably would’ve folded in on itself unexpectedly fast and that would’ve been how it left something on the table

Yeah… Show me that Can you imagine the ecstatic fervency in this social media as that thing was congealing in the models? L O L It does remind me… I’ve had this conversation with other Mets. There’s always something that gets left on the table. Somehow someway, even the very best of the best. The GOATs are not even perfect. But … At some point you’re not noticing because everything else is just so overwhelming. Probably like the blizzard of 78? Maybe 1888? Few other argumentative’s in there over the hundred yrs. They’re like above the 95th percentile without fucking up.

I’ve crossed over some kind of gestational changing of mentality on that stuff… Yup, I guess I’m gettin’ old I want a 72 inch never ever has happened before OD dopa menace hyperbolic storm so powerful that the Earth hiccups in its orbit about the sun… all around me where I only get two inches within a diameter of about oh … say 10 miles or so, so I can still get out and about and do what I need to do.

interesting warm excursion going on in the Arctic

Maybe the patterns only looked good on the surface…

Must be black ice everywhere road surface is sparkling

Okay...I gotta clear something up - if need be... But some of you appear focused on the colors of those non-hydrostatic charts? That peachy color over the Canadian archipelago and adjacent areas of higher latitude up there, those do not depict a block. All those colors depict there is higher than normal heights. That's actually a non-blocked, +PNA flow, that happens to be above normal heights in all directions. It's actually a fantastic anomaly to see that at this time of year for other reasons.. Anyway, you have to look at the geometry of the curving isohypses.

Right ...cuz Tolland's in a relative min/face smack slot there so you know yours must be balls on right

The Euro's conflicting 1/6 with 1/8; the latter has the larger mass-field driven amplitude signal and would be a much bigger deal without that interference. The only difference between this run and the 12z GGEM with it's tasty cliff hanger on D10 ( 8th ) is that the Canadian has a bigger temporal gap between them - or just enough. That allows the 8th to amplify more. The take away - you know this obviously ... - is that this is all fluid for now.

no idea... i was in a conversation with Ray about how it didn't extend much N of SNE. That much is true/shown with that. that's where it's use stops.

yeah, honestly I'll leave that to y'all. I do wonder where we are when that erstwhile 1/3 season-length resonant -WPO breaks down... I hunch there's a window of opportunity there for at least a transient +PNA. That's obviously thus of unknown magnitude. You know what this reminds me of... high A1C. The body is swimming, in fact ...drowning is apropos, in high octane energy but it's can't use it. It's like the hemisphere is a suffering Prediabetic. There's no real comparative or metaphoric value to that, but it just leaps to mind because I'm bored with nothing else to do ... but it fits in with my Cosmos is just an analog engine in disguise. I see circumstantial metaphors all the time. Like, the AGW stuff? classic hypertension. My mind has fun with circumstantial comparisons. To much partying and the host body ends up polluted, their metrics go up.. On Earth? Humanity's been on this harbor cruise party since 1780 and the IR (Industrial Revolution).... It's just that in geological time span, the metaphor takes a helluva lot longer. In 2026...it is like 1.5 hours into the party cruise, and the wooziness is just kicking in. We'll see if the idiot has the sense to come back to the dock, or if they end up on an O.D. OR at the ER just havin' fun

well... we could also pop a decent event in the next 12 days and still averaged a fubar midriff season. haha. I mean, even dog years can some times find a stray in heat

I'm personally very confident that the determining factor is in what the PNA does post the -WPO breakdown - spanning the 2-5th. If that emerges into a western N/A ridge we're probably going to set something up that's at minimum climo - which means higher ceiling event. If it doesn't ... we don't

You get the impression the GFS' recent topography is trying to get organized around the 6-7-8 dates but its not focusing. It's a bit early yet, yup. For now, buck shot with S/Ws through the medium and time span. There's some S/W spacing at 500 mb that looks innocuous and weak 5-6, followed by a more potent amplification nearing the 7-8 period, but the stuff in the 5-6 is just enough to interfere and limit what the 7-8 can do. So you end up with a whole lot of nothing. But that's just the operational GFS Meanwhile, in honestly the ensemble spatial synoptic cinemas looked like shit to me from overnight. I was hoping for more from those. Based on what could have been, when observing the erstwhile trends, no. They instead come up with this half commitment between a new -EPO, and a stressed low amplitude +PNA... in other words, garbage pattern. It's garbage because [ no one will read it anyway ] ... The collapse of the eastern hybrid -WPO is still high confidence spanning the first week. The models are having difficulty coming in with a coherent new paradigm after the fact. May need more time. If it ends up in some distorted piece of shit between two modes it's unclear a best what the f that will mean. Could be anything, but probably not winter storms because that means nothing is actually happening. If it ends up more committed to a +PNA then we'll emerge a system E. I said back in early Sept: early blocking and winter pattern followed by sputtering mid season, and then early spring. So far, nailed the first 1/3. We'll see where this goes.

actually HFD was in a local screw hole it looks like with "only" 16 inches...

That had a pretty steep gradient to it. I was in Acton and we managed 15". Boston was around 18 but up at UML in Lowell it was 10" I think if memory serves. But it was 2 foot or so in Hartford. I don't think S Vt saw much at all

Jan '96

It’s like symbolically the Earth is struggling to come up with ways to preserve itself from tipping over into a point of no return. Imagine if in 50 years science proves how close we were and didn’t know. Like we came that close to ending our ours and countless other species if it were not for that mere decimal AD response -

this was explained over two days, ad nauseam ... but, the audience just sits in wait with elastic strain for the first reason ( in this case ... HREF driven knee jerk upgrades) to suspend all constraint. Anything to load up the dopa syringe, at least excuse imagined LOL

How often do you see supercell embedded squall lines along 40 N latitude after Xmas..

I agree... but the "Pope's" caveats, albeit a bit salty and mean sounding ( haha ) are unfortunately with merit. Truth is, pattern structure is only A B comes when we start to see how the dailies start arriving and fit into it. Is it going to be a 'warm variant', or is there cold available... Cold when counts... etc. Yes, climo ... but ( and I have no compunctions in admitting this - ) climo is fucked now in mid winters. That much is just true whether anyone else admits and/or has a problem with that or not. That's the beauty of actual statistics, and, science that is backed by the actual statistics: it's true whether one is in the conversation or not.

and I tried to keep that brief! LOL Btw, H.A. are initials. Heather Archembault released a Master's thesis back in the early 1990s that discussed the restoring of +PNA lending to enhancing precipitation over eastern North America.