Typhoon Tip

Ha... essentially, winter in the northern hemisphere is in or around this circle

yeah, I see some boat missing by those making an "analysis" of these 12z guidance.... haha. The Euro was really close .. really really close to going bonkers with that Jan 15 thing, which was a massive step toward amplitude comparing the prior run. The CMC also moved significantly toward a deeper +PNA with coastal implications heavily flirted. I dunno. From this range? I call that plenty to look at.

They use a process known as 'reanalysis' - basically, taking what is physically known about the system, and then putting data that was empirical ( or very closely estimated to be consistent witth - ) and feeding that data to the mathematics. The results paint a likeness that is 82 ... 91 ...99%tile of what was natural. So, reanalysis is not always perfect, but if we are over even 60% in confidence/reconstruction, that is significant - and significance can the be tested against other data sets that are also related. If two sources come back with similar results, that improves the confidence. They're indicating at the bottom of that article, "These findings are the result of a statistical analysis of the 250mb jet stream using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis dataset." In order to get more discrete than that would have to go to the source/server they are referencing, and delve into the paper's "methodology" section

CMC's buckin for the 15th.... either way, that's a pig +PNA amplitude. I'd be almost - if it were not for the last 10 years of oddities ruling the outcomes - be surprised if something didn't manifest during that period, because regardless of this Canadian run ( which is easy to do HAHA), that signal is very much still active in the index modalities

There's a lot of these articles out there guys that discuss/elucidate the fast atmosphere we've been observing - these being papers that are scientifically researched and then adjudicated via the procedural accrediting. Here's a good one among many, https://phys.org/news/2022-02-jet-stream-brought-storm-eunice.html Phys.org is site the provides paraphrased renditions of the formal works. They do sometimes op ed... but, when they are referencing they also provide links to the actual paper. "Jet stream that brought storm Eunice has been getting faster over last century New research from the University of Southampton shows that the winter jet stream over the North Atlantic and Eurasia has increased its average speed by 8% to 132 miles per hour. The jet stream, which this week brought storms Dudley, Eunice and Franklin to the UK, has also has moved northwards by up to 330 kilometers."

That's true in either direction. You may find this hard to believe ... I don't try to substantiate more or less, up down right or left. I wanna know what's going on. that's it. that's all. that's the whole thing. One has to mention it at times, because it is a factor. I don't know how much or less at any given moment - no one does. It doesn't appear my or anyone's mentioning it is actually being considered fairly - so yeah, that? that's a perception. LIke it f'n matters in the grand scheme of anything, anyway. haha

I don't believe you are as fair as you think you are when exchanges teeter. You get combative dude. sorry. You're clearly being evasive about the notion that you choose to use words that frankly, ...anyone with a modicum of intelligence doesn't really need to read into anything to understand your attempt. And when called out, that's when this derailed - I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt - mainly because I do the same thing to people ... LOL. It's not always on purpose. Whatever look, I think you need to do some reading. It doesn't appear you have enough exposure to the accredited science on matter. If so, perhaps you'd be less inclined to accuse people of having CC biases -

It's pretty clear to me that your hot, ... then telling me to chill out. Nice LOL

I did not do that presently at any time this morning ... YOU DID You're evading ... we're done

Yup, "You have this proclivity" has one connotation, it implied me having a bias. I'm telling you, it's not based on a bias - it is backed by research globally outside this tiny social media-sphere. Also, with a pig ton of face-smacking obvious observations available to anyone that is in fact NOT biased

"You have this proclivity" has one connotation - bias. Which in this area of science and hobby, either end, is a bad aspect to have implied. That's not arguable. Don't do that. We'll be fine. And also, Start here, and bother to go down this rabbit whole in a realm where's a huge and still growing content that exists already in the research ambit. These cite, both directly and indirectly, content - with scientific background- that elucidates exactly what I have been trying to impress for something like 15 years at this point... https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01884-1#citeas ... scroll to the bottom, too. And there's other servers, not just this one. These are all accredited scientifically, and once you read through a few of them ... CC affects and effecting on the circulation modes is incontrovertible. In fact, if we're taking long lead forecasting seriously, it's highly recommended.

It's not a mere proclivity. You need to do some reading ... not mine and then making statements that subversively diminish others. Start here, and bother to go down this rabbit whole in a realm where's a huge and still growing content that exists already in the research ambit. These cite, both directly and indirectly, content - with scientific background- that elucidates exactly what I have been trying to impress for something like 15 years at this point... https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01884-1#citeas ... scroll to the bottom, too. And there's other servers, not just this one. These are all accredited scientifically, and once you read through a few of them ... CC affects and effecting on the circulation modes is incontrovertible. In fact, if we're taking long lead forecasting seriously, it's highly recommended.

There's been these funny memes on Instagram where Shmuck steps out oblvious and with a cup of coffee and ends up looking like George Jetson ... seems like a good morning for Funniest Home Video ops

what? my thoughts are pure logic dude - at the moment anyway... nah, CC has nothing to do with why I cited MJO desk, and these other facts in present company and stream. lol, not sure we're even disagreeing on much here.

mmm... in this case, not sure agree. peppeRONI or not, the pizza isn't getting cooked with ENSO if it is decoupled. RONI does not mean there's some presence when the ENSO is decoupled. It means the coupled state is augmented and really shares a quasi state. That weird N. Pac thing that lasted 4.5 weeks or whatever eternity that was ... didn't strike me as either to be honest.

Repetitive WWBs are pretty damming, nonetheless Also, recently the MJO desk has cited comments that the NINA atmosphere appeared to be contained just to the immediate region around the Equatorial band - which in a large spatial sense implies it is largely decoupled from the hemisphere. SO, WWBs ... decoupled states ? I dunno. Sounds a little like it's dead before it hits the floor. Suppose that is true ... all it really means is that ENSO is less useful from here on out.. because "decoupled" is what happens when you ain't geddin any

13-14-15 is still on the table. Altho probably favors the latter end of that range if there's going to be an event. Obviously we have nuisance to lower level advisory issues in the nearer terms, but writing in terms of more broadly supportive for canonical events, which is beyond these foreground concerns. The 00z EPS/GEPs/ and even the typically hesitant GEFs still attempting amplitude along the OH-MA with +PNA arrival. Typical to find events during spatial-temporal reordering of the super synopsis, which this chart above lands on one of those times. The ridge in the west in this rendering may appear a bit less than ideal ( W bias)? That's true, however, this GEFs mean is the most W of the three ens. It's also retrograding W and didn't start out there. Beyond this ... ~ the 15th-18th, the hemisphere gets interesting. That +PNA lending to a bit of an H.A. signal appears slated to be a transient index state as it soon de-amplifies. However, changes in the forcing scheme upstream across the expanse of the Pacific lends to an original and new -EPO approaching the 20th. Quite amplified as of last night's means, too. No clue from this range what that will mean, but odds hugely sloped in favor a cold N/A loading period. Not a warm last 10 days of the month given the previous week's arrival into these 300+ hr mean structures...

Also by surplus” I don’t mean to imply that the model is in error with all that speed, but it could be just the same I meant surplus in the context of it’s just not needed and unwanted if you’re a storm enthusiast cause it’s definitely interfering negatively

Yeah John, happy holidays new year all that… So velocity can be expressed a couple different ways in the atmosphere. When you have a lot of isohypses - I know you this… - nearby one another than the balanced geostrophic wind velocity is going to be fast. When the gaps between them have larger spacing than the wind slows down. Short waves need to be embedded in a balance geostrophic wind field that does not offset the wind max of the short wave passing through. The other way velocity is expressed is the actual translation speed of the short waves through the medium … the compressed field contributes to that. This run looks like it has both, but in particular, seeing short waves passing over South Dakota and then leaving the East Coast just 18 hours is going to create some mechanical challenges to allowing anything to amplify… The speed of the flow is keeping the long wave open (lessening the meridian character) so that can’t happen.

heh … there’s definitely a speed surplus problem on this GFS run tho As this pattern turns you don’t no wanna end up compressed and velocity soaked

well, for starters ... I'm ( personally ) not seeing "strong screamer" amplitude anywhere around eastern N/A over the weekend. I see middling cyclones moving up into an antecedent only weakly resistant +PP, or even a neutral PP ... draped throughout New England and adjacent ON/QUE. A modestly amplified cyclone system would probably be able to erode into that regime, particularly if cuts west of ALB. But a middling system is also not transporting sickly sweet air with it, either.

That's the H.A. window though ... But I get it. People don't care about when the enhanced probability for precipitation event correlations happens, they want winter storms on the charts. I guess since the pattern change/correction event intro may be cold lacking that might present some challenges getting the wintry profile out of that period. Might have to rely on the "maintenance" system(s) that come after. Assuming the pattern persists long enough - cross that bridge ... I gotta say though, just from the veneer this is the best operational GFS generalized pattern scaffolding I've seen depicted from that model's extended range since a number of seasons...

I wasn't part of the conversation - I was at the Pat's game. fuckin' cold game ! anyway, what was the gist? I think limiting the N-S extent of the curving flow over the weekend makes sense, ... just given to the progressive and "speeding up" correction tendencies that began circa 2005 really, Frustration aside, it probably rears some corrective essence to some degree or another. But, it also brings into question how deep that L/W axis really will be 3 or 4 days on into the middle of the next week.

Fast atmosphere limits in both directions... Basically, in order to get the pelicans up here you need the meridian flow type, just the same as you do in order to curve the surfaces and create storms... You can't displace the the pig air mass any more north than you can dig S/W successfully south.

right on schedule ( then ) the Pac modulation/ collapse of the previous paradigm completes. That's opening the door to the cage of suppression, and out rushes the MJO