Typhoon Tip

They do. But the purpose of that was the atmosphere. You're extension of which does not invalidate it -

That would be nice tho... So far we are spits and starts of green up around this N. Middlezex Co region. Lawns have some patches. The forsythia and lilac buds are swollen. Some of the random shrubbery have green-ish tints to the still barren stems. All large species trees are in nuclear hibernation - not buying it... We need the nights to stop with this < 35 bullshit. Just give us 40 for fuck sake. You know? And make it stick. 40 to 52 with highs 60 to 70+ with this solar should finally tune up the lawn mowers.

hehhhhh I would encourage using larger hemispheric basis for determining back door potential in this case. I realize the modeling consensus - for now - is putting a Euro like solution as an outlier, but I really argue that a Euro like solution has a ton of support from both that larger synoptic perspective, but also in in the season trend. We've been dealing with a PV anomaly of varying strength.... averaging near 100 or 90 W by 60 N, for months. In all models, Euro combined, that still there out to 300+ hrs. That has been at times mirrored across the conterminous by warm heights S of ~40N. Larger gradient results. The flow between physically/necessarily faster than normal at mid and upper levels. Moving a stream of air faster than normal from Lake Superior -ish to the Maritime of Canada, is a very BD prone mean. That why we've seen a buck shot of BD's ... so it seems. I can't say this for sure, but it "seems" to me that we are above normal incidences therein, relative to date. I don't know if there is any climatology for numbers of BD, per date. So this is largely conjecture on my part. Be whatever that may be, I just base it on anecdotal accounting having suffered the vicissitudes of New England springs for that past 45 years of my life jesus. Anyway, being a bit flowering with rhetoric here but I think there's enough precedence both in spring climo, seasonal trend in play, and synoptic observable construct at large scales, not to be overly confident next week.

I did not use it incorrectly. Those are the straight up global anomalies, using an expanded data set because in scientific principle, denser sample sizes are better - when also stretched out over the longer term, exposes trends that have more confidence. UNLIKE what you are providing in your poorly thought out rebuke, using scanter sizes.

Dude, I put that same link in my post! people just glance over these posts... miss stuff. But definitely knee jerk react. I tell ya, social media engagement is a privilege that about 96% of the population may not be very well suited for

I haven't looked into it. I don't really do a lot reanalysis -related look ups. I've been posting the GIS sfc temperature anomaly product from NASA on or around the 10th for the past several months, just for the muse of the fact that we enjoyed what most perceive ...even if not objectively so, a cold snowy winter, yet that was the exception to the vaster rule. It's been an interesting observational journey.

Yeah, that was announced awhile ago, but it looks like a new solution is being offered. Unsure if that is the entire motive/reason for making the move, but they announced this a month or so ago "...Central Operations has announced that the Climate Data Assimilation System (CDAS) will be discontinued in favor of the Conventional Observation Reanalysis (CORe) ..."

Today may challenge the diurnal recovery record in the unofficial nerdy Asperger contest...

Welp ... I was wrong about March when it comes to predicting the product result, below. I had presumed recently that we'd result a more obvious local geographic ( 'local' relative to the entire world) cool zone/island anomaly relative to the whole "inferno" that is clearly and coherently, unarguably the product's character below... eh hm. Said island had been a persistent leitmotif since late last autumn... Still, you know, it really didn't sensibly come off that way? I recall seeing March colder locally comparing to the whole country on a lot of days... In fairness I think what is actually going on is that this product below is the "anomaly". What we experienced may have technically been a warm anomaly, just not as demonstrative or obviously so as everywhere else... SO, in that vein and sense it might still qualify. Also, having that impressively deep cold garland lording over top the Canadian Shield while there's a quasar spanning the conterminous U.S., definitely helps explain why we've been getting these wild 40 to as much as 50+ F air mass whiplashes, too. Anyway, here is the tabulation and mean for March provided by https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/ Quote

Welp ... I was wrong about March when it comes to predicting the product result, below. I had presumed recently that we'd result a more obvious local geographic ( 'local' relative to the whole world) cool zone/island anomaly relative to the whole "inferno" that is clearly and coherently, unarguably the product's character below... eh hm. Said island had been a persistent leitmotif since late last autumn... Still, you know, it really didn't sensibly come off that way? I recall seeing March colder than the whole country - in fairness I think what is actually going on is that this product below is the "anomaly". What we experience was a warm anomaly, but just not as demonstrative or obviously so as everywhere else... SO, in that vein and sense it might still qualify. hmm 'Sides, I've been quite right about every other month since October...so, meh. That's a decent grade in anticipating these temperature layouts, nonetheless. Also, having that impressively deep cold garland lording over top the Canadian Shield while there's a veritable quasar spanning the conterminous U.S., definitely helps explain why we've been getting these wild 40 to as much as 50+ F air mass whiplashes, too. Anyway, here is the tabulation and mean for March provided by https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/

Graph/data provided by https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=world

Euro ends that 00z run in late January, too ...

Just looking at that ... Euro has a 1030-ish high pressure moving from NW to S of NS overnight into Wed AM. GFS does not have that feature. The difference is resisting and/or creating a warm boundary in the Euro - that look is nastier probably in reality on this side of that type of boundary. The GFS has, by an admittedly narrow precarious room for error, a W east stationary front aligned W-E, situated just N of you, which places us all in with the popular kids, movers and shakers. heh. The Euro did not have this two proper cycles ago so... it could be nuanced and fake. However, given to this year's shenanigans? wouldn't be shocker either.

Interesting... I woulda thunk you'd be SE and putting a sweater on by this hour. Holding in at S wind tho

I frankly would prefer that to being submerged in death by the N. Atlantic. Just by personal preference, but nothing is worse - to me - than Labrador stealing time from spring and/or summer. Either way, I'm willing to bet, the 95/72 circumstance is rarer than you having the back of your balls caressed by glacial remains

My sympathies... yeah I'm sure as this sun continues to lase the environment we're eventually flipping the boundary layer and that'll transport momentum...ie, increase wind, and ruin it. SSE flow seems to be the layout ... rotating slowing into a SW and then WSW tomorrow. During this SSE earlier phases of that ... the cold slab of polar ocean air might meld in and force the vectors to temporarily turn back W.

no idea. but what significance ?

Still light ... Now 53, with high sun. Affect achieved.

Wtf was this on Dec 10

classic April temperature recovery ... DP ? 1 4 ...whilst it climbs toward 60 (probably). So, in fairness, splendor out of doors, considering what this loathsome time of year is capable of doing. If the wind remains light and doesn't get too wafty, then we get our 56 MOS + the typical 2 tick bust ... it will seem like a guilty bargain out there. Take this and run

This has been an interesting first three months of 2026. So far ( date provided by Copernicus) : January 2026 was the fifth-warmest January globally. February 2025 was the fifth-warmest Februar globally. Notables so far were the variations in temperature across N/A and parts of Europe. These regions hosted the lion's share of what negative anomaly contribution there was that went into the total state of the planetary system. The graphic below illustrates these idiosyncrasies. ( I corroborated the above with NASA's releases and they conform ) March is not yet available at either Copernicus or NASA's monthly releases. NASA typically releases their finding s around the 10th of each month so we expect those soon. We know already that March 2026 was the warmest March on record across N/A mid latitude ( conterminous US), per more sources than need to really list here. Go take a look. However, again, both in data, as well as "sensibly" experienced, this was not as readily observed for the eastern mid latitude continent. Nevertheless, these eastern geographies accumulated +2 to +3 positive anomaly for the month - so ours was likely still negative relative to the whole continent, which can be ratified soon enough. This may or may not be reflected in the total graphics including the Mid Atlantic and eastern Ohio Valley and some parts of the SE. Personally, given a-priori awareness of the global circulation modes for the past 7 months and the persistence thereof, .. I suspect we'll see a repeat of relative offsets over eastern N/A and N-W Europe, while the rest of the world observes a ranking somewhere in the 3rd to 6th place for March. The beat goes on...

Rather than painstakingly line-itemizing everything that's taken place ... will defer to https://climate.copernicus.eu/sites/default/files/custom-uploads/GCH-2025/GCH2025-full-report.pdf ... to elucidate notables and various drill-downs. 2025 was the 3rd warmest year in general. Starting the thread for 2026 -->

44 .. up from 23 Probably heading for MOS+routine bust ticks. Little or no wind and now late summer solar rad will certainly max out the nape factor. Psycho babble this will put mindsets and posting vibe some distance from this morning's disgruntling bite. I'm not sure it's the last of the freeze chances (season) though, due to further below... But yeah, the models do shows some elevating thickness out there. It's just that the ambient polar boundary is still gradient packed and that's not a good look. Pattern is trying, but it is as though the models in an internal war to prevent seasonal change. That's that tongue-in-cheek vibe in the current modeling cinemas. The problem is ... it wouldn't look that way if we could just at last remove that 90/60 PV. 00z ensembles re-invigorated it, after a couple cycles whence it finally looked - after 7 months of it no less... - like it was going away. Until that succeeds, we'll keep seeing these wild temperature ranges, S-N, at mid latitude continent. We'll also suffer greater than normal BD in the means... I just recall at least 3 Mays since 2019 whence there were flurries at mid day with blown out virga cu passages, and I don't recall those years having this PV plague. Case in point, this next Wednesday. Seems with the above concepts in mind, then combining with base-line climo, there's a pretty good gamble that frontal arm ends up down near DCA with NE drill. Right now, the models are tussling with a boundary, selling a precariously float near Brain or myself latitudes. But 1030 mb and +PP N of that boundary like that? feels like a 10 year old wondering if Dad'll be mad when he gets home from work to find out he was playing with old man's gun

More reliance on interpretive automation technologies.

I like that phrase turn there ... I'd go so far as to call it Industrial tabloidism. I've mused in the past, the moment in history when greed figured out how to turn channel changing, mouse clicking, and eventually ...thumb swiping into money, that was the moment in history that civility was doomed.