Typhoon Tip

yeah.... good way to describe. I sometimes liken as NAVGEM-ish too

It just looks cartoon resolved with that one particular metric is all. It's not one or the other, tho. It can be developed more and mashed S of CT with flurries on the Cape too.

Those solutions look over-produced with QPF to me. Just a gross linear correlation based upon experience, so tfwiw; flat 1000+ mb surface waves suffocating amid a compressed non-hydrostatic field don't have envelopes that extend so far along their northern arcs. More typically, that's a narrow band. If this AI is self-learning as it is espoused as being, I suspect that is a lessen it is about to learn.

Maybe the inevitable bump north will for once help the cause

Hey wasn’t the 14ther the same one that the GFS put out 970mb blizzard for se zones about 5 or 6 days ago

Let's start by calling the 14th a 'possible event', and leave the word threat for something that actually threatens anything haha

the guy "instructing" us why that GFS solution wasn't likely

that post reeked of self-soothing ... It was really drafted up to off-set the fear they, themselves, covet.

yeah anyway. you can't trust guidance beyond 90 or so hours in this maelstrom of a hemisphere. that goes for anything

Haha... How about, cuz'n it was 360+ hours out 'nough said?

I'm starting to think similarities that are dropping out of the comparison to the 1980s era of doldrums may be more of a coincidence. I was fully sentient then...I remember a lot less speed/velocity stressing in the flow types through that era compared to today. Boned for different reasons but the pay-check is the same.

well like I said a couple days ago. It might help the psycho-babbleness of it all if one sets up their expectations according to this being the new paradigm. there might be a reason we're seeing this leitmotif playing out every winter for the last 10 years or whatever, particularly over the last 5 years. there's been good times interspersed, sure... if look back 2017 or 18 or whatever. but objectively, what we're observing now has been dominant as though it has become the new base-line circulation type/norm. i keep hearing this internal statement, 'when the flow slows, it's too warm to snow'.

thanks support's still rather tepid

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGT_0z/ensloopnew.html appears really only 1 member supports ... P026 But ..whatever. That thing has about as much chance verifying as any given D13 bomb does. Basically none

No one's askin' but ... I do. My 'druthers spectrum' changed as I've aged. I only like winter now if it is cyclonic and interesting. This is not that. No use for just cold at any time of year. Now, unless it serves something interesting? that's different. But making it un-fun to be outside, as it's only and singular achievement is a rotten horrible piece of shit winter. Proooobably? yeah, I'm not here after retirement - b'bye. But for the time being, if it's not going to be interestingly stormy, I just rather we blow torch it all away

ICON's taking a stab at the 00z Euro notion on this 12z run fwiw -

Flower February

Only a 132 hours away ... I guess we give it a shot ( lol, this crew gives 360's an at bat). Still, we are challenged by immensely fast atmosphere. Most are aware by now that this shortens the outer time range where confidences fade to randomness, considerably. Agree with Ryan that blends/ens clusters are the best bet. For now, the EPS does have a vague signal on the 14th, suggesting the operational EC is bit of a jacked outlier ( 00z ), but am noticing that those members are below 1000 mb it seems 1/3 of the members are likely significant, while 2/3rds struggle with cirrus clouds. Interesting range

another in a parade of phantoms

might help the psycho babble if folks finally accept this as the new paradigm

looks like every run's a different focus ... 12 hours, 24 or 36 apart from where it was on the last run, because it's actually a different wave altogether in a general careening buckshot of probably nearly impossible to process s/w swarm

Gotta love the Euro's rendition of that 20th beast... ruins Xmas by rolling up the entire electrical infrastructure into a giant fur ball, then vomits it out to sea. Here we go a pipes a-freezening

add the GGEM's 12z improvement.. what leaps out is the extreme general thickness ( hydrostatic hgts) gradient along which this paltry ( for now...) looking low is riding along. The flow is having trouble "kinking" in time... ad nauseam, because of the faster than normal basal velocity. But this elucidates the high potential should that correct just pubes more so... you'd wind up a rapid deepener, albeit progressive - but who's judging when begging. Just gotta bend the flow in time and BOOM

funny you proffer this sentiment as conciliatory ... I've recently been thinking this exact same "patience" idea, but had 2014-2015 in mind, actually... What happened that late Dec ( after Xmas was wrapped up and tidily ruined with panache ...), is we started getting this torpedo flow with big cold situated just N of our latitude. Systems were riding along the ambient b-c axis, and we did go through about a 10 day to two-week period where we bit cold, followed by quick warm ups to rain...cold, rinse and repeat. I remember posting a sentiment that it was like "playing with fire" - interesting metaphor considering the 'fire' in the context of the times meant that should any of those wave get under our latitude, would make for a sudden change to a whole new world. Well .... oops. Things started going under our latitude - fine idea, then, but ... knowing when that's going to happen, if at all? yeah - patience perhaps... The problem with patience is that nature does not reward for good virtue. That's a human construct. I combat that by just tuning out - glancing at charts here and there for quick diagnosis', and also just to stay in sequence of events. That way I have a sense of knowing when things may finally break right, while at the same time I didn't give the prurient "real" god any satisfaction of having stolen life LOL.