Typhoon Tip

NAMed by the Nw bias?

Dec '81 ... I moved to New England in the summer of '83. Please provide some background ? dates and such ... I'll look that up in the NCEP charts Library. In any event, it's really centered around the 1st, give or take, then again out toward the 7th. But hell... just give the model's credit for picking "some"thing up at all. Geesh. It's like they seeded the models with anti-storm coagulant. The models are like trying to gaslight us into believing that rocket fuel isn't flammable -

actually I think thought they touched 26 and change Feb 2003? ..I coulda swore. I know the president's day storm did 27.5 total, not sure about the 24 hour part

heh... just thinkn' the history of this season and the annulled whining and bitching about low snow this and that relative to this and that, when considering all this cold and on and on with it. Can you imagine this working out? the irony being, if somehow the 30/01/02 system were to then punch through obscurity and actually strike... we go from ^ to a snow removal problem at a regional scope and scale. there's also a vague non-zero potential emerging for the 6/7/8, too.

You know ... I was just thinking about this last hour - it's like the modeled storm is moving toward the impossibility of that dopa jerk product. Converging on it such that it makes it right for the wrong reason this time?

There it is! the model transmission failure that seals the fate of this particular storm as actually happening. That's how we know... the technology, some how some where some way from some source always fucks up when it is exactly the wrong time to do so. It's just creepy action at a distance electron double split eerie shit where the storm some how doesn't want to be detected by the quantum processing of the models or something but it's dependable -

It's about as potential saturated as Earth can really produce. It's really rather remarkable that the GFS so cleverly devises means to maintain gas and match at such close proximity, yet nary do twain shall meet We'll see about that... I dunno - I was talking to Das the other night, who nicely described the setting as "there should be storm right there". Well, we're seeing them attempted...This run's back to 01/02 after losing it last run(s). Go back yet a run before those, and there it is again. The other guidance have been more and less guilty of the same frets and starts. The consistency is lacking ...yet.

any shore denizens see arctic sea smoke this morning ? one of the most breath taking spectacles I've ever seen was a bitter cold dawn back in 1983 ... Standing on Front Beach in Rockport as in the early morning the sun illuminated the dance of steamnados; they sinuously moved past one another in ghostly silence. Sometimes merging...some times disagreeing - and their arguments resulted in both disappearing.. It was like looking at a ball room of waltzing spirits. It's truly an amazing sight. But things have to be just right. It can't be windy. It's like only subtle movement of deeply gelid air as it passes over a glassy calm sea surface. And the horizon sun's unobstructedly penetrating its corpuscular rays through the scene. It's a very fragile moment, but an arresting vantage of natural art in motion.

Should the 29-02 not materialize ... there is also, albeit vague due to the long range, a signal emerging for the 6/7/8th off February.

+Yes, John's nicely picking up where I left off in that missive, "having to now-cast..", offering some methodology in doing so.

So ...question for ..I don't know whom. These Kuchera charts, I guess a few minutes with Ghat GPT is all that is needed to get a reasonable model of how exactly they are coming up with the graphics. But assuming that they are really just using the 10:1 ratios applied to modeled QPF ? In a situation with 15:1 below the DGZ regions, not being intruded by a warm layer.... does that imply adding to the Kuchera output?

Two aspects I don't have a problem with ... A, giant QPF realization B, displacing transition zones to higher latitude, going from snow to dry IP falling thru low level aggregates like the latter are dodging being shattered by very proficiently froze bullets whizzing by them ... all under an exceptionally sloped winter sounding structure. A happens because this whole ordeals pulling up an unusually high PWAT source - benefiting winter enthusiasts, happenstance lobbing it over a near historically cold lower tropospheric slab of very fresh, nascent intrusion. The former is usual transport set up... and so positive precipitation anomaly results. Fine. As for B, I actually don't have a problem with that happening ... to some degree. Let's not get crazy. I know I'm in the minority in this dopa crazed din of objective rationality ( haha) but the reason this storm is happening is because warm air is going over cold air. So...longer winded sermon: we're having an arctic intrusion in temporal coincidence with a time-lagged MJO phase 6 STJ attempting to assert itself into the OV/TV regions with it's highly correlated warm anomaly. Two titanic signals clashing... storm results. It's really quite elegantly coherent like that - for me anyway. But these opposing forces are exceedingly polarized. The cold is ridic. The warm correlation is fighting back - so to speak.. It's going to go over top because it physically can't go anywhere else ( btw ...I'm just writing all this for the art and fun of it - am aware you know all this). That means this whole situation is uniquely set up to maximize the slopes of these sounding. I could see it setting a record for synoptic difference between 700 mb over White Plains NY say, while it is 12 F at the surface. This might be similar to 1994, 10,000K sleet column, only just a tad colder. All I'm saying is that there's conceptual plausibility to an IP carpet bombing. So, using the NAM as proxy, the 860 mb is closed, weakly so...albeit still closed; it aligns an axis W-E just south of the Pike on this 12z rendition, at warmest synoptic pass. That is about 50 mi N of where the model placed that same axis 12z yesterday. It seems to me, the IP line is moving in concert with that repositioning, more so than the model just arbitrarily warming it aloft. We can kind of get a sense of that repositioning below The IP line is falling probably from an elevated layer above this... because it is actually below 0C at this 850 mb rendering down to the beaches of the south shores. The 700mb level, meanwhile, remains open... not closing, but flat. This latter circumstance is a bit idiosyncratic, and would limit the IP line penetration in latitude, given this NAM solution - its angle of ascent at that level is oriented more W-E. It's like utterly locking the IP right where we see that black line. If the flow between 850 and 700+ was more S... trust me, it would drive the IP line bodily N over this arctic air mass. Now ...this is the wholesale structure of the NAM. The NAM could also redraw all this back to 12z yesterday's rendition, it would reposition the IP line back S.. and the variance in the total structure et al, like above? it would almost be unnoticeable if not looking for it. The NAM has a N-W bias over the eastern CONUS as an ongoing operational concern. It's not beyond the realm of possibility that we are just seeing that express. Probably have to now-cast that

Ha.. you're kidding, right? try telling heroin users to stop with the smack -

Meh you guys are chasing giga motions with needling obsession over sensibilities of loss Meaningless noise. Nothing really changed.

You wanna get rid of this thing in a timely fashion if you want next weekend

Hm hm hm hmmmm God you’re deviant

Where you guys are hung up with snow… I just like interesting weather events. So I guess under the circumstances that makes us allies. LOL

Better presentation on the GEFs First time since the index signal was detected, that’s been the case

My God… This thing‘s been billed 18+ inches and so it shaves a couple inches on recent runs and people are like this sucks this is total bullshit ha ha ha ha ha ha

That’s called “warm air seclusion” by the way if anybody’s curious… Phenomenon not uncommonly found in bombing cyclones.

Wtf ... Channel 7/NBC affiliate out of Boston is buckin' for a 24-36" of eastern Mass ??!! tell me that's some kid with a free afternoon and a chapgpt meme kit

NMBs latest storm projection

I think you were onto that aspect last week if memory serves... some post along the way. And I agree... The problem with this being an index -based signal ( meaning it seems to only be in the indexes) is that it doesn't qualify aspects like the actual positioning of features into sweep or key-slot positions. Bad locations still fit. That's the reason why I've only been discussing the window in time and not really pushing an actual event. Yet... I mean this can formulate - there's time I don't think that is impossible; one aspect I keep noticing is that the +PNA ridge in the west is actually relatively fixed at along a MT longitude thru the period. It's not clear why the models have such a boner for positioning the trough couplet so far E of that total wave space like that. stretch city!

yeah .. you know, fair enough point. Thing is, if we look back at climatology... we don't typically see 20" this and then 20" that, < 10 days apart. Regardless of cause, that's just a flat fact. If we can count the number of times that's happened in 50 years on one hand, that is by definition rare. But maybe in the sample size, we just haven't had a huge overrunning anomaly next to a cyclone bomb, anyway. In other words, you just can't get the circumstance to arise that often. The problem with huge storms with huge output, they are doing that because there is a huge restoring deficit. Those have to be rare. But look at it this way ... we have not had two huge events spaced closely in time since ... 2015 FEB maybe? that's 11 years ago. Why not? LOL seems pretty f'n rare to me.

I haven't heard ( haven't run out to NWS afds just yet, either ) mention of specific PWAT values in this air mass transporting up underneath the boundary... Given the source is from the deep S/proximity to the Gulf Of Wet Fart Mexico ( I refuse to honor the idiocy of the renaming ...)...it seems we could be shitting a ton more than people are really aware with this whole beast. But we'll see. It's possible to choke-snow fall rates from isentropic lift, tho. I'm also wondering if just gets so extreme that there's thunder, too.