Typhoon Tip

You've hinted pretty well at the two primary reasons I've suspect since September this may be an early loaded winter, followed by some struggles. I thought at the time an early spring, too. I sort of sarcastically mused, 'flower February' ... Just expand a little on the climate aspect ( CC not included). This type of low amplitude La Nina autumn/winter in the past preceded some spectacularly warm springs. Gotta dust off the antiquity, but 1976 and 2012 ...etc.. They're there, if one goes and just cursory runs their finger down the ENSO history, they'll see the negative ENSO years, and then compare those to notably warm springs there's a pretty clear correlation there - no, not 1::1 ...work with me here. It's there, and it's non-noise. So, now add 20 years of accelerating CC. Which unfortunately for those that have issues with this reality ... springs have begun expressing bigger heat relative to climate, and also all-time, with increasing frequency. I mean, there have been heat-related deaths in lower China in Marches. It's a matter of time before a February 2017 type ridge returns, here, and perhaps does so with greater duration. I just see as an idea here, that if we combine this latter aspect with the aforementioned climate inference farther above, we don't get a protracted winter sense of it. Also, the near history ( last decade's worth) of winters have become all but dependably similarly behaving - in principle. Despite whatever background/preceding ENSO this or that was observed, leitmotif: some early form of early blocking and snow supporting synoptics ( sometimes as early as Octobers for the first time in my life), then, the circulation gets blown open by midriff seasonal velocity saturation. I'm sorry, since September, see and sense that lurking again ... One thing recent La Nina have not performed very well, is that early climate signaled warmth, however. It may be Russian Roulette with that if/when water finds its level.

Looping vis suggests this is transient and you open up out there over the next hour. We'll see. May not be "sunny" today, but a compromise

late 25th thru mid 27th is an icing pattern. didn't appear y'all mentioned it? If not, that's a stalled polar boundary with duration over running. 1020 +PP situated N of the boundary pushing E while gaining some as it goes + climo = ice event written all over it. Like Will said, ...talk to us when we're within a week. Tru. But, the idea of some sort of a mixy potentials in that time frame is still there in principle.

One can enjoy the deep winter with weather chart drama ... One can embrace the surreal warmth that obliterates winter. There may be no sense for loss in either experience. Either can be fulfilling. I realize we all have our druthers. Most would agree. Yet, it's interesting how those agreeing folk seem to take actual offense at other's. Like it's the stranger's responsibility to be sensitive to one's posting mood, or the flavor of the moment. It's a weird pastime. All these social media are. Fucked Book to Instacrap, OK Stupid to who knows what dating app ... and this, too. There's some sort of an emptiness issue that permeates the souls of modernity. And all this "state of provision" that we take for granted. You know .. it's almost like the law of lessening returns also hits when we look around, and should see how it creates so many choices, yet they are lost in a blizzard of opportunity. Irony how overabundance seems to empty out minds. People would rather then "faux-fill" their gift of brief time for their lives involved in this intractable preoccupation. It's lost because there is no value in gains unearned. If you work for joy, you find it there. Modern experience removes too much of the work. No joy. But the mind still seeks it... so we create the illusion of it in the back and forth of this electronic game.. It all comes down to managing dopa. People can't get it from their lives, why? who knows ... something like boredom from above. But it's easier to seek immediate satisfaction of a dramatic weather-chart cinema. Failing that, they seek it in the group modes of the moment, which are often spontaneously occurring bi-polar flashes of perspectives - how things are so bad, then not so bad this and that. Meanwhile, the more objective viewer sees 0 difference before and after. And then, if some hapless sort wonders into the moment with their particular druthers, and it's not in sync with that mode, they were then irresponsible for other people's delicate sensibilities while were enjoying their dopa .... than they're buzz killed like a swarm murder hornets. This is kind of a toxic relationship. Not the people mind you.. But this pursuit, thinking to fulfill something that cannot ultimately be fulfilled this way, yet keep repeating the same performance

That 2020 scenario was born out of a completely different synopsis.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/12/15/climate/glosat-global-temperature-data

So I guess the gripe is centered around losing the white Xmas ? as far as the 'scalar' value of the Euro run ( anyway ) I thought that was entertaining enough. Xmas itself on that run has a wall of snow with probable impact visibility and road deterioration issues as a strong WAA burst throws a quick 3" followed by some IP/zr... It cuts off, then there's a Schwegler wrap for some mood stuff lingering into Boxing morning. It's a winter storm man. Then there's a NJ modeler for 3-5" three days later... It's D10 so ... yeah, probably won't be there on the next cycle lol. but it's not exactly a winterless run

--I wouldn't call it "disdain", per se. But definitely reservations. Certainly, a measured approach - not happening.... One should always understand "how" things work. It's a virtuosity that ...even if folks had the presence of mind to see and fulfill ( which is seldom observed -), there's too much. AI adds to the growing menagerie of things people don't really understand as they navigate modernity - just handed instructions on how to use by economic enterprises. Good luck. Yet, it is at a sort of 'intellectual event horizon' beyond which it cannot be fathomed, even if they wanted to - not by 98% of the using population. It's not intellectually tenable. This creates a wider gap, one that may not be bridge-able. There is a crisis of social mores, and breakdown of common morality. Example, what used to keep mass shootings ( for example) down to one or two every 10 years going back to the 1920s. People just didn't act to absurdly. Much less conceive of ever doing so in the first place. All but just a very small tiny fraction of beyond-fringe psychosis were at least sufficiently guided; they acted as at least tenuous, but in place nonetheless, safe-guards that kept things in check. Now? one every 6 months, a number that far exceeds the "very small fraction" number, too. Something is extraordinarily motivating, enough so to indoctrinate merely untoward ideologies into committing to specific actions. And if anyone has a modicum of understanding about sociology and history, they'll see that the most fantastic force to ever have impacted humanity, during and immediately preceding that uprising, wasn't just fire or the wheel. It has been this unchecked innovation --> advent of technologies, since the Industrial Revolution, that is proven too profoundly capable of unilaterally either helping, or afflicting at a species level. The fairest way to define this era is truly a techno-sociological experiment at an evolutionary scale - one that 90some% of the population density will lack the capacity to even be aware of what it is they are being unwittingly subjected to ... Can't end well playing with Cosmos' gun. Failure to understand and commit to the virtuosity of understanding how something works, that same something that one is allowing to guide them? That is a problem when people intertwine with it in blind presumptive faith. From one end of the spectrum of miss-use, to the other end of becoming co-dependent, then having it fail: Where does that leave us?

That's not the scary part. Not really. The scary part is that there are those that seem to be "gifted" in their utilization of the technology - just naturally so. Like they seem to gravitate toward usage. Just seemed 'get it' with a lucidity in engagement that makes them synergistic, ( potentially ) immensely powerful - with great power comes great responsibility. How irresponsible is that going to be?

Heh... y'all must be new to this social media engagement lol

Again ... setting expectations proportional to what is becoming (otherwise) too painfully clear to ignore, will do wonders for ameliorating one's angst. When the flow slows, it's too warm to snow - or tends to be. I've learned to just know this will result - and I've been right more often then not. I feel no distraction. Acceptance will set you free! Related to that ... I was looking at the 300+ hr Euro and that's remarkable. 570 dm heights over the EPO domain, almost that high over the eastern limb of the NAO domain, and the flow in between spanning the continent is compressed at the nadir. So much so it's intrinsically a +velocity-related negative interference pattern. So it's like yeah ... there's cold around ( still - ) but getting it to 40N, here we are again. Seeing so without this negative result has been rarefying.

Why bother I just rather the ridge go ahead and take over rather than swinging wildly between 57 and misty light rain and faux swarm sector winds to 35° dry northwest flow and back and repeat? Fuck that. If that east biased negative NAO ends up over N Europe … the mid N/A continent ridge will take over. it can’t trend anymore. Two days ago when the NAO first showed up it was west.

Y’all droolin over the 18z GFS? Three 6+ers Xmas to NYE no melts between

Y’all droolin over the 18z GFS? Three 6”ers Xmas to NYE no melts between

My dad told me a story growing up in late 1940s… Had an ice storm like that across Southern lower Michigan. This is long before the current kind of infrastructure or even highway system was nearly as evolved as it is now so probably lacks notoriety but anyway. He said that after about an inch and a half of accreted ice, it transitioned to snow and they had 8 inches on top. That’s something I’ve always wanted to see - a major on top a major

Yeah, I mentioned ice earlier… I haven’t had a chance to expand on any of that. In short it does look like we’re trying to move toward more of polar boundary being on the doorstep. No need to expand on those kinds of vulnerabilities. It put’s a lot of stuff back in play. It doesn’t look like a clean warm departure as much as it did yesterday - plenty of time

Still a long way off but ... should the EPO surprise blossoms like that there's ain't gonna be no warm end of the month

12z Euro's Currier&Ives

crippling ice storm

yeah.. I've often mused that, 'hey man, I was raised in the Feminati' when seeking defense in discussions with militant lesbians

Haha.... right. For me, it's what I call "non-representative cold" that's annoying. This is non-representative when it's just cold. Yeah, one gets sick of that. And it actually doesn't take long to get to that opinion. Like, a one failure to represent and up! I'm ready for February's annual 10th exit of the solar minimum and hearing about Ray's canonical warm bum on his car seat. heh. just kidding Cold is a necessary evil if we want to have interesting winter Meteorology though. So long as the latter is a part of the cold, no issues.

yo yeah not sure yet. It may be a last minute thing. I have a huge family. Not sure if I've ever exposed this but I have 9 sisters and they all have demands of one another's time - including their sole bro. Since, truth be told, there are only 7 still living, that's like a political urgency to be ... anyway, there's a thing tomorrow - not sure how long. There's some conflict there.

You know i'm not part of this conversation but I've always felt that 'conditions' aspect is over applied. We used to play in the "Waltham League" back in my late 20s and early 30s. Great era of life really. Despite all protestations of the times, looking back, I'd love to go back - maybe even do some things differently. Anyway, we met up around 9 or 10am on Sunday mornings before the Patriots game - mind you, this was when the dynasty was just getting going. Imagine that? 20 guys supposedly doing flag football; eventually just ended up being so aggressive that guys took hits once in a while; all the while, visions and fantasies of being somehow a part of said dynasty. Ha. It was a great time. Then afterwards, we haul our steaming bodies to the Mad Raven on Rt 20, for Guinness and IPAs ... wings and Patriot's victories. Oh where was I going ... so we were literally steaming. There were a couple of mornings where it couldn't have been more than 20F, over a few inches of trampled packed snow on the field, and by 3rd down of the opening drive both sides were down to t-shirts. Just going by experience, football is a hot f'n sport man. Now... okay, if it's -10 F like the Ice Bowl game or whatever, sure. But if's just a normal climo winter's day, and their playin' it's hard for me to imagine cold being much of a factor.

The 0z GFS was similar in principle. From this range ...of course, neither has much substantive value. Have to wait it out on details and dailies. However, there is a new character that's shown up to the plot. The EPS made a move overnight that may offer nostalgia's salvation for the the Holiday week. It's very new, so we'll have to see if this continues. It's the North Atlantic Oscillation. The thing is, the actual index numbers from the GEPs and GEFs do show a slight correction down .. hmm. The EPS was a bit more representative, though. It's very all or nothing in that last 10 days of the month. If we end up on the N side of the ambient polar boundary, than record warm still - likely - happens in the conus, it just won't make it in here...where we will be at risk for something like a 00z GEFs and/or Skynet type of stalled boundary with mixy shit running along. So big contrasts along the boundary... A west-limb -NAO expression would limit warmth expansion over the eastern continent no farther than 40N. Again, it's a fledgling signal... But, as we had that -NAO about 6 weeks ago, when it decayed ... we relayed into the -EPO mode. The NAO's been in hiatus since. The EPO now failing to refit ( while the -WPO continues to fester ..different story - ), and with the PNA going negative, the longer term correlation on -PNA is actually the -NAO. So there's climate-wise support for NAO to reassert. These index correlations are not 1::1 of course; they can verify in an aberrant/unexpected state. Something to keep an eye on if your the winter/Holiday symbolism types. It's at least based on a real observation from the tools themselves. Yesterday at this time, this observation could not be made; I posted direly, accordingly... but, sometimes, that's all that is needed LOL

'Good Heavens! are you guys still trying to win?'