Typhoon Tip

I'm behind all you folks ( snow day yesterday means double duty today ) but I've never seen sub-516 dm heights in a closed trough at Cape Hatteras before (12 gfs). that's unworldy

people don't see a very obvious and direct hit, they get emotionally downtrodden, then ... interpret the models according to that emotive response. check.

Nah, these west 'leaning' members in this depiction would rage from D.C. to BOS

The ICON is not a dependable model even at this range, from my own experience. That said ... the 12z rendition of the wholesale evolution (operational) was in fact a marked improvement over the 00z. I don't pay enough attention to the off hour runs of this model - need more background on how it works/data feeds/initialization ...everything, which is not something I've been inclined to research given to the unstable performance I've noticed at anything beyond 60 or hours. But as as far as the former, there's time and space for trending.

just using your chart here... yeah, it's almost to the point of frustration that the models appear to be disconnecting the wave -space arguments in their physical result/processing. That ridge being over Idaho ...if anything that presupposes a position near WV with that tough axis.. which would probably parlay quite favorably. That's a bizarrely stretched looking gunk L/W filled with distractions...

I think we got about 2 ...maybe 3 cycles remaining. After that, it's probably a consensus go or no go

Heh, 06z EPS has collapsed latitude, and weaker, both

Alarming EPS members/spread orientation. Between that, together with the bump NW over prior cycle … clearly this wants to be W

This evolution is less likely than the previous handling. +PNA ridge axis demos zero propagation toward the E between the 12z and 18z; there's really no mechanical reason to foist the deep layer farther E. If anything, the previous run ( and this one certainly by same convention - ) was too far E.

WPC's caught on

Much better dendrites than that heavy fog we had overnight, albeit falling lighter

Yeah... it would be. 1kt to 1mb conversion suggests that 73kt sustained middle BL flow into coastal Maine all the way down... It's just one solution. We don't need hyper bombs to get the point across here. I will say though ... I'm not surprised we are seeing these solution ..erupting - for lack of better word - out of the canvas given to the way the indexes have been ... anyway, I figure we are watching for this still.

This depiction looks more photogenic muah hahahaha

I was agreeing with you ... I rewrote that "I personally would, too" poorly written. ha

Oh my god

Mmm I personally would too I don't think it's handling the position(s) is/are very supported by the basics of wave geometric constraints in having the +PNA ridge longitude that far W. For this model ..? I'd be lean on the fact that it has a system at all - it'll be the last guidance to come NW typically in N/stream phasing

Yeah all these models have at one time or the other flashed out nudity at us... But the key in recency here is that we are really coalescing and picking an actual date/event. I was just looking at the AI Euro runs from 00z and 06z overnight... ( I still need to get used to the fact that these "tools" exist, how/when/biases in using them - ) and yeah. Those two runs fit right in. The 06z run is really a GOAT type storm from PHL-PWM

Yeah...we're just having fun with the eye-candy stuff here but still... jesus h christ with that thing. 20-30 with that look? no... the wind would scour it all as well as roofs trees and infrastructure. That's is a hyper bomb. 962 getting captured? That's a Cat 3 hurricane in a blizzard. Unlikely to succeed reality but it sure is fun, huh!

`Gulp!

Man... haha that 06z ICON was going to be among other greats and GOATs if that were allowed to move out beyond 120 hours. That's a Miller A that gets captured by an N/Stream cutting off trough with a mid and u/a cold air anomally that's that like -5 SD. Jesus Christ! That's like a matter coming into contact with anti-matter.

Yeah there's been some solutions spitting out storms at different dates between the 28th and the 3rd ... Really, the whole period is/was susceptible. However, the recent runs are honing the 1st *(see the dates on the charts being provided). It all would have been the same, really. Uuuusally, though, it's the front side, between the rising inflection and max of the +PNA is when things happen. Then if you are lucky ... it pulses with periodicity such that you get mainenance storms after the fact - but let's not get greedy just yet. haha. The 1st is better situated relative to that and the timing et al.

Okay so ... some key synoptic facets. 1 the western end of the modulating SPV 2 the interloping S/Stream injecting underneath 3 the heights over the SW Atl Basin are psuedo relaxed; evidenced by larger gap in isohypses, with balanced geostrophic wind only 30 kts, and heights lower the 582 or Miami ( as proxy). What I'm not showing in this image is the western ridge/+PNA response, because it is yet to happen. In two more days after this 81 hour Euro solution from 06z, the western ridge surges polarward.. right along a very complementary longitude. This helps to trigger the N/stream's descent in latitude through the lakes - that western fragmentation of the SPV. As this happen.. the 3 is not as shearing/destructively interfering as it would be if the heights were higher and the balanced geos. wind was strong...such that the whole structure is allowed to conserve more of it's amplitude as the phasing commences... sex happens... and it all gives birth to a storm.

Ha Ha Ha my company has a ...wait for it! SNOW DAY.

Hard to compare? I realize you're making conjecture and it's all good and fair. But this thing ending today, and that thing in 6 days are apples and oranges in the atmospheric setting and governing kinematics. So favoring has to just be whether it exists or not ... I admittedly lapsed on this most recent one. I discussed this in the storm thread ... But this one appears to also be an index signal if we ( or I - ) had bothered to look. About 10 days ago there was a very coherent MJO phase 6 wave space in the RMM. This has a strong correlation to warmer than normal across the eastern 2/3rd of the middle continent. This timed with typical MJO lag for this same period as the storm... so what gives? Well, the intense -EPO cold load that set up right on top of it. It's really a clash of two disparate implications... the STJ that came across the Baja and went over Texas, was the MJO wave termination mechanics, then encountering a -3 SD arctic invasion. Amazing really... It was all MJO warm/moisture going over top an arctic dome. There really was only weak low pressure...

Yes... one idiosyncrasy as we observe this thing in these early pages ... there is a preponderance of very deep members. That's been a thing with this for the past week's worth of modeling... the variance has been very all or nothing. I find that particular behavior interesting. Either the model in question has nothing ... or something sub-980 bombing. That's red flag as to potential - which we already know is there... but the member variance is typically narrower and closer to a mean that is more middling. Sub 980s are spread NW