Typhoon Tip

Blend that last 7 winters + some factor of warmer done

fits the telecons though ... just sayn' I mentioned this yesterday to no acknowledgement - gee ... wonder why? heh. The 00z spread actually looked a bit less so in the tele's but these operational runs at 12z didn't apparently get that memo. The tele's may also slip back into dogshit mode ... I don't know. This time of year, even the tele's aren't free from stochastic signals. Anyway, we're on D4 of way way over-achieving April days here, and after a very brief cool down on Sunday, it could be 80+ again next week. Beyond that, if we get 3 to 5 days of rhea it's probably normal. we'll see

Oh it's not even close... This has not been a typical climo April. In fact, if I were being as objectively fair as I can, I'd say that Aprils in general have had some decent stretches in recent years. Bad stretches too... but, it seems the frequency and length of these better periods have been incongruent compared to the much longer termed climo signal from last century. Maybe, maybe not a part of the attribution stuff, but I also submit that May's have almost become proportionately worse. No prediction there - we were talking about the shoulder seasons smearing ... likely a part of that. Currently 74. No cloud. Zip wind. Low DPs.

out here about 8 mi west of 495 I've noticed in the past that our breeze invasions are almost always from the ENE ... but sometimes we'll get doubles. The 2nd one comes in from the SE... you can actually make them out on high def rad reflectivity sometimes. the SE one originates from your area

Mid level cloud deck ( should lose out to more sun going forward...) sorta interfering with warming a little ... but not huge. It's 55 along Rt "shadowed" but yeah, it's diurnal time.

right... there's overlap in phenomenon. a huge problem with human beings is that they don't even just like to, they seem to have an actual unstoppable instinctive need to place boundaries on everything - when in reality... reality itself emerges out of multiple processes occurring simultaneously, while each individual influential force is in itself, a non-static contributions. Shoulder seasons are getting smeared by the type of phenomenon in this link below .... note, this source is paraphrasing an actual scientific paper; this is not just social media John-ism, https://phys.org/news/2025-04-hot-cold-sudden-flips-temperature.html And that is all taking place, while as you say, the longer term trend is "making America great again" Try explaining 'overlapping contributory forcing' to the average utility dumbed-down dipshit pap on tap American civilian - of which ...we've managed to put a gaggle in charge of the country - and fucking no shit no one believes in climate change. Or takes it seriously enough. Doesn't matter... Fermi Paradox explanation's obviously and quite evidentiary going to claim an extinction level event long before winters have completely been removed from the map, anyway. Enjoy sniffing Trumps ball sack everyone - you're a fucking gem in the history of the world

I have no problem with it still being winter until the bs stops in May. It's not even arguable anyway. The empirical data has snowed more times in May since the hockey-stick era of CC began some 20 years ago, than Mays prior to that going back 100 whatever years - it's really overall a testament to how the shoulder seasons are getting smeared. Same has been true in Octobers since -.

+PNA seems to be more of a bump up toward neutral positive beyond the 30th, as opposed to the stronger positive mode change in the previous computation cycles. Of course, that's when the operational GFS' extended parks an anus over PA ...

At least it's not winter any longer. Sort of a personal rule, it is still winter until radiational cooling nights stop short of falling to or beneath 32. It doesn't matter how warm it is or may have gotten up to the point in time the observer thinks winter is behind them, if 2 nights down the road manage to radiate to 32 or lower, it's still winter. We just did 2 nights in a row whence radiational cooling dictated the temperature behavior, and neither was much below 40 where I am, and appeared to stay above freezing in the bulk across the region.

funny ... posted that exact same sentiment re the first little while of May over in that April thread

Sounds like you guys are heavily leaning on the GFS for Saturday? There's not much mention going back and forth that includes the other guidance. The differences between them are not that significant, granted, but the 00z GFS was the wetter implied run. It and previous runs had persistent tendency for low-on-the-front burst while the whole mechanical wave space translates over the area... The Euro and GGEM both have less of that. Then, the 06z GFS appears to align more like the Eu/GGEM. So the blend is valid in my mind and as of now ... the error correcting doesn't favor the GFS' prior runs. The Euro, by the way, has a severe potential on Saturday upon a discrete look. There's temperature recovery potential after dawn WAA showers are leaving, and partial clearing is well timed with heating. Elevated DP slotted air/warm sector. Theta-e ridge with narrow SB CAPE transport up the CT R Valley to as high as S VT... and spreads E by late morning. I'd would watch that. That setting looks rather explosive mid day CB scenario and the Euro model's QPF imagination is painting descrete thunderstorms firing off by 18z over far E NY. Sunday looks breezy under self-destruction CAA clouds. Sorta blagh, chilly, and annoying. Short lived as Monday looks like a top-5 day in all guidance. Particularly after 11 a.m. All guidance depict deep layer light W flow transporting a rapidly warming 900 to 850 mb layer. At this time of year and sun strength, that's easily tapped. Dry air at all ceiling levels. +4 850s or so by day's end... I tell you though, that looks ripe for summer sun intensity mutilating the thermal profiles/super adiabatic extension. Probably over -achieving to 72 and going above machine numbers. Tuesday and Wednesday are mid summer. Probably approaching or even exceeding 80 on Tuesday, and in the 80s Wednesday ...another convection chance that afternoon. GGEM's not useful beyond D5 ...it's wantonly cold profiles everywhere and every dimension stress believability. The Euro and GFS match the telecons well enough and blend out to +14+ on Tuesday already by 18z, and 16+ on Wednesday. With deep layer WSW/SW flow and lower ceiling RH still being the case ... whatever machine numbers have for those days, the correction vector is higher. Then, the first week of May ... hmm... significant mode change in the ens -based PNA from all systems.. Rising from negative to positive, with retreated N/Stream, sets the E.C. open to a cut-off spring shit show. It's just far enough off that this could meta to some other/lesser implication, but that's what the deeper range mass fields are suggesting at this time.

First week of May might remind -

75

72

burst out here about 45 min ago... 61 up from 54 . Sat trends suggest this air mass is being heavily modulated by the sun.

It's tough before May ... these warm synoptic return surges at this time of year tend to be DP challenged at this latitude. It's intersection of CAPE/lapse rate. We're all lapse this early. We rely on the biological farts accumulated across the whole continent for the bulk of our DPs in the warm season, and that doesn't really ratchet up until the green up it is farther along than this breast bud time of the year. Later in the summer we can get a Bermuda circulation that brings Floridian source on the big curve ...but not likely getting DP contribution from that source this early, when the westerlies are still driving fronts so actively through and the N/stream won't fucking die ... jesus

Yup been eying that... That 29th/30th warm surge has been off and on, but getting more "on" across recent day's of runs. I think of that as the next 80+ burst... Sort of a Saturday partial redux. ...In the middle of the chain to the desk part of the week, too. sweet. But no worries ...we'll make up for it at 49 F and .78" of slat gray bum pounding on Saturday. Actually Sunday could a great recovery

If you expand that product you can almost tell by temperature distribution that a diffused sort of warm front probably failed in the nocturnal cooled sludge to get NE of NY... Lot of 60s just SW of the region. My hunch is that the NAM thought it would be more successful. It's probably better at this point to have the main boundary just sweep house. There's very little CAA if at all behind ...so that may be where we get a recovery.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/hazards?obs=true&wfo=grr

Looping that ... the mid and high levels are actually not the problem. There's terrain-enhanced low shit that's sort of stationary-ish, while the weak flow going down slope has sun over the valleys... You can get a sense of where the ridge line vs lower els are aligned. That region over NE Mass is the back edge of the mid/ua lid

I've been tricked once already this young warm season in doubting a warm temperature blossom based upon morning trends... Namely, the 84 I put up here on Saturday... It was like 68 at a 11am with cloud contamination ...etc... It was one of those days where when you are not looking at satellite, the sun pokes through, but it it's always cloudy when you check. heh. Still, 75 seems like a stretch here when it 51 and drizzle and sky on satellite is clearly indicating that the models were too optimistic in clearing things out by now. we'll see...

I actually miss-interpreted the writing of that article when I first saw it. I thought it was telling me that the Himalayan snow deficits have been below normal for the last 23 years. It was in fact written that the region suffers "a 23-year low" which means... in the past 23 years, this is the lowest year totals. Those two have different meanings, that latter being what was actually discussed. The current deficit is running 3-years consecutively, however, suggesting perhaps a "snow drought" in a local time series. It's still useful to bring it up because the population, relying on the regional resources as it must, has been allowed to burgeon to billions. That was/is still a human choice. And so yet again anthropomorphic interference takes center stage. Population has burgeoned so fast that it cannot possibly have been tested against any (very likely) longer term variation in that regional climate system, variations that introduce periods no longer capable of supporting it. Similar problem exists over here in American with California (imho). These regions of the world may not intrinsically be able to to sustain populations of "the most successfully greedy species biology has ever created" on this world. Lol. Population outpacing the normal environment's ability to sustain it - where has that ever been evidenced as a problem? Which gets further complicated in the latter sense because what is normal? Normalcy itself is in a state of change. Anyway, the correlation to CC is less intuitively clear. Just an a-priori awareness of Earth, 3-year biases of either dry deficit, vs moist surpluses, can easily fit into a "noise" expectation - be explained by fractal behavior. The other aspect to consider is the specific climate "behavior" of that region. Evaluating the standard deviation would be useful in revealing just how unusual the 3-year snow deficit really is there.

It’s less likely Saturday will produce like that Late spring/early summer temp tomorrow and Wednesday on this NAM run

Oh yeah... and https://phys.org/news/2025-04-himalayan-year-threatening-billion-people.html