Typhoon Tip

The overall tenor for a big winter we're currently dancing to from the social media speakers is emerging out of the CPM: "crowd physics model" For me anywho, it can't be geo-physical. There are certain aspects that are not refutable. The recent 10 or so year's worth of winters have rattled the out-of-classical-box teleconnector scaffolding: air and seas. These winters are showing a consistent shear stressed, mid and upper level velocity saturated hemisphere, regardless of the aforementioned states. Also, a time span in which I've read a lot of peer reviewed material elucidating these behavioral changes as both directly observed, and CC-attributable. That is not going away. Certainly not because crowd noise is resonating to some emerged popularity tempo. You're not asking me... but, I've mentioned recently that I do feel low confident for an early loaded either winter, or perhaps pattern that's quasi winter oriented... latter November through Dec. Emphasis on low confidence. The primary logic behind that is the science of increasing frequency of transient blocking during shoulder seasons. These are creating early and late "cold meanders"/vortex displacements. This happens in winter ( DJF ), but I'm seeing this as kicking in during Octobers and as late as May, if perhaps subtly but enough to distribute cool anomalies and cryo-supportive air mass events into mid latitudes. Articles are out there being dropped occasionally... https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adq9557 Otherwise, I've seen other articles about the increased jet wind speeds, too - bit of separate consequence conjecture/science. It's an aspect you and I have discussed anecdotally in the past, and then the conjecture emerges in peer reviewal ..so - tfwiw. It's real, and the increased speed is causing resonate instability at all wave scales - teleconnectors are more unstable. We can certainly set up a 2015/Feb resonate look still, but there may be a reason why it's taken 10 years and we haven't really seen much more stable set ins. The knee jerk argument is that 2015 is a rare outlier, but the evades the point of time. This is different than the 1980s ( for example). The 1980s was longer lasting resonance that was not good much of the time. We're now getting screwed more and more in recent years because of behavioral aberrance. It's different. This is the other side of the same large variance coin that's been noted all over the world. Regions can be -20C, and then +20C, in the same month in 1955... but less frequently. And the beat goes on... Thus, I wouldn't guess (if) an early winter-like regime ( or perhaps a couple of them) characterized the Thanks Giggedy to Jan 10 span occurring, would characterize the whole way. Still, a 2013-2014 analog may be incidental. I noted in that SST comparison - though likely missed... - that the SST anomaly distribution up there in the NE Pac is not driving the weather pattern base-state. It is in fact the weather pattern's quasi coupling ( via sea surface wind stress distribution) that eventually accumulates or dissipates those cool/warm periods. It just so happens to be, that coincides/correlates with NW cold loading through Canada, around a planetary wave signature - more obvious in winter ... but, August being cooler? worth the consideration. If that persists, the early winter would also fit that. So these are some "modestly" compelling leading circumstances. As an aside, I also like the fact that the nadir of the sea-ice loss in the arctic shallowed considerably over recent years: https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/seaice_daily/?nhsh=nh

At a glance that’s looking like 2013-2014 for the record … the sfc wind stressing associated with larger atmospheric circulation mode sets this in motion/emergence. The SSTs aren’t driving the winter pattern tendency - it’s an indicator for governing circulation biases; whatever causes the one is causing the other

It glazes eyes over - apparently - in here, as I've tried to explain this aspect about nature - it doesn't report back like anyone gets it. It's probably me and my writing... Gradient is everything. Not sure why it doesn't resonate with the 'cognoscenti' of the site but ...heh. Anyway, warm water doesn't cause hurricanes ( I'm just using your post as a staging launch) it doesn't What is correlated to TC genesis is the qualitative state of the [empirically observed] sounding, which has also long been geophysical derived thermodynamically. The tropical sounding (identified by some dude, Jason Dunion) has warm air moist air from the surface to 500mb give or take. But as you head toward ~ 300 mb level the DPs drop way off: such that the wet-b temperature is relatively low. So, you have a statically unstable environment ( CAPE -heavy air), with warm dry air over top. This initially tends to resist intability in that high level ( which incidentally...due to thermal wind consideration, tends to outflow/divergence ...hence why we look for anticyclonic wind fields at high levels). The divergence excites/forces UVM. The arriving warmer psuedo-adiabatic turrets turbulently mix, lowering the temp ... which adds to the instability/UVM above 500 mb/acceleration. There's bound to be exceptions. Of course...that's why there are 'phase transition' cyclones that quasi overlap. But should these soundings deviate significantly enough ...doesn't matter how warm the water is. No TC. The sounding as described above really outlines a thermodynamic gradient. Like every system that exists in the Universe, the greater the change between A vs B ( which is the gradient ), the more violent A --> B ... that's the difference between a stressed out coughing TC, versus Dorian 175 mph oil driller. Not talking about mechanical stress like shear and so forth. But there's no point in considering these latter mechanics if the thermodynamics are not satisfied to begin with.

It really should considering the pacific Inferno… That’s probably a complete response to that forcing in the climate models. … Frankly, I’m leaning towards some kind of an early loaded winter or quasi winter pattern … Something like November 15 through January 30 mid January at some point, but I don’t think it necessarily reloads midwinter on…

any consideration to the nada model ?

They dropped Erin a couple of times early in detection, too. just sayn'

https://phys.org/news/2025-09-physics-based-indicator-collapse-atlantic.html

Well ... you can definitely tell the solar season is at least changing. A month ago this gossamer shitty low gray smudge on satellite would have been thermally vanquished by now... replaced with early CU towers. But watching the visible looping I get the distinct impression that the sun's power is less effective at modulating in the same way. It probably will but it's going to take until mid day whereas in higher solar times, it's melted away low ceiling types by 9 am

Reflectivity

I hugely agree here Don... with the rest of it as well, but the bolds in particular. We all echo this sentiment in our own ways... I began penning the frustration myself several years ago; human's are unfortunately, despite their various acumen and conceits and lordship over this planet, still quite primitively enslaved to the 5 corporeal senses: sight, sound, smell, taste, and touch. Unless calamity is directly advertised to their personal being via one of these pathways ... urgency is faked. Stating the obvious, it drafts from biological evolution perfectly. These sense were evolved to make sense of the reality surrounding them. I've mused before, they are akin in many ways to the USB ports that connect the "biological CPU" to the cosmos (for lack of better end expression). Global warming does not appeal to these natural senses. It moves too seductively slowly. I've heard this compared to the "boiling a frog" syndrome. Well the fire that heats the pot has got to be our own superior adaptation, then - if we were not so mutable ( naturally) it may have already begun that registry. Since the adaptation is so effective at blinding us from a problem the solution is clear: To put it plainly and simply, humans have to suffer, first, before they move out the way. Pain, both physical and mental, needs to occur unceasing - else the moment it lets up, humans are quick to resume. People have to be in a state where not being a piece of shit is a clear salvation from pain. It's ironic that adaptation is so superior among the one species causing the problem. It uniquely feeds back on perpetuating the damage they cause. Fermi explanation? Not all species adapt as quickly - little does the lay person know, Earth has entered a mass extinction event. Climate change is both physically observed and calculable in that causation. Since the rapidity of the change is also mathematically and empirically proven to be objectively humanity's fault, we have become death, destroyers of worlds. Sorry, but Gita's poetry is unfortunately apropos. For the rest ... they'll die gasping through their lessening breaths that it's all a hoax, instrumentation bias perpetuating a conspiracy.

flow looks parallel with/while the trough is weakening in time ... that may be why there's some challenges to QPF totals emerging. waning mechanics. some guidance is faster at doing so. in the meantime, the NAM is deep summer in the grid for tomorrow and saturday

The indices ( at least from CPC ) still bear some modest signal, but the operational runs aren't really getting any memos. They seem to favor a bounce back flat ridge and/or relaxation back to a base-line modest above normal heights in the east ( continent) after this weeks trough anomaly lifts out early next week. It's after that ... late next week and beyond that is a period of any eventual interest. It's most likely just way too early. It may be worth it to bide time and see if or when a CPC's strong +PNA, with a shallow -NAO, begins to manifest in the operational cinemas. Right now, from this far out, the GFS's depictions are likely just coincident and not related. Because the stronger +d(PNA) over at Climate Prediction Center is a bit in conflict with these longer range operational handling.

Curious what the previous record was

At a glance that synoptic layout overnight Sunday night into early Monday morning looks like a decoupling frost fest in the interior from NE PA to SNE and up, but the 2-m progs stall at 42-ish. I wonder if the same aspect with 2-m in the models, where they're too cool on warm extended outlooks applies the other way, and they don't do the decoupling thing on the other end of the temp progs.

I suspect there are competing forces going on right under anyone's awareness. There's been trough anchored over Quebec, and static confluence parking a low thermodynamic surface ridge right over head, which really shuts off continental heat conveyors from getting in here. while there is 540 DM heights and even grapple/wet snow over the NP of Michigan and probably hard frosts N of the ST Lawrence Sea Way up there NW of Maine. This pattern is not a warm one when/if that is the case, but the stalled sfc ridging combining with aspect of CC are combining to host modest H850 warm anomalies/heights to stall over our sub-continental space. Like a sub-anomaly. As an interesting aside, these stalled highs were always part of autumn climatology last century, usually in October and associated with Indian Summers in Novembers, too. Anyway, so we're approaching 80 in the afternoons, during these above other circumstances outside our region due to a semi-coherent +PNA. It's more unusual than some may know. There's also another dimension to this worldly change that is under the radar: warm intrusions, which can and do happen even in cooler profiled hemispheres, are warmer than they were 30 years ago. Two consecutive days of hydrostatic heights nearing or even exceeding 570 dm, like the consensus appeal the models have for this Fri/Sat window, is getting late in climo and thus "seems" like a warmer than normal pattern. But it's just a warm sector during a cool index mode ... still is taking place in the midst of at least a modest +PNA with the 'real' heat packed back west over the western continent. In 1990, that'd be 74 with 62 dps probably. So how does one separate the two? which is it? Is it a warmer than normal pattern... or is the pattern just over-producing a warm transience in cool hemisphere, because CC is obfuscating what's really going on along with everyone's ability to understand what is really happening? I really need to see a -PNA with a neutral EPO actually manifest, otherwise ... we are over performing warmth in a cool larger sense of it. As far as this Margrave whatever you spell him, I suspect he has a chilly functional bias, yeah... Upon sensing the abstraction of any cooler anything, his willingness to pounce is a bit transparent to and annoying. So, we he detects a +PNA lurking in the "subplot" of the models, but is going to probably stop where ever the cool quotient is seen - and thus not seeing these competing deeper aspects. Because the saga of 2025's late summer and now early autumn is deeper and more complex than those CPCs charts. Which, it's not clear he understands the difference between 60% chance of cooler than normal, vs blue colors intending to actually say it will be cooler than normal. For some reason... how to use those charts doesn't get learned by people. That means there's a 40% chance it will be above normal, btw -

Actually, 'General Sherman' the 120 year old maple at the corner of the lot and looming shade producer ... is sadly beginning to change now... The earliest I've seen that happen. I'm worried about the big guy. But... he may just be responding to something environmental that permeates the landscape. Because this is happening up and down Rt 2 and 91 between Rt 2 and Worcester. Early juts of color. Some of it looks dull and diffusing green/beiges.. .dryness probably plays a role? I'm also wondering if the smoke days at mid summer may have f-ed with the foliage.

See I don’t even quantify it that strictly … I mean, I know what you’re saying there, but I think it’s more apt to say that the return rate for big winters (which might even be a subjective powder keg) is going to get less and less and just leave it at that. Even acceptable winters rarefying moving forward. We’re not at 0 now tho To state at the obvious… ruts can and will occur independent of climate change. However, with the ladder aspect raging on would increase return rate of the ruts. We have to kind of think of it that way. Btw, n my own methods, toying with the notion that the winter or a quasi winter state is early loaded. I have no idea how that conforms or does not conform to anyone or any consensus. I don’t really get into seasonal forecasting

This next one has a better chance than Erin did, relative to the outlook range, spanning the eastern continent and adjacent SW Atlantic Basin. Note, better chance does not mean this: The CPC's handling of the PNA index has it rising positive, while the NAO is bucking for a vague negative. That's all but a 101 requirement, particularly if the latter is over the western limb. To soon to know if that's the case but just numerically, this is a better canvas. Erin never even had an easel. Anyway, the idea of a warm up mid month still does not have a lot of legs in the index spread. It matters. If we succeed in doing so, this idea dries up. Can't really have both. A pattern relaxation will likely ensue beyond this trough anomaly deal through the Lakes. The operational runs will tend to bounce the pattern aggressively the other direction, and by that I mean too much. The index/PNA rising seems in conflict here. I could see the flow relaxing, and by virtue of that... yeah, warming, but uuusually, a rising PNA doesn't set the table for an eastern/WAR -like response. It's interesting... a period of some competing indicators. I tend to lean on the ensembles, however. So, meanwhile, the MDR reactivates here over this week. Any TC born out of that may find a position not as polarward as the GFS is attempting by circa D6/7. This is also a known bias at long leads regarding operational guidance, definitely with that particular model. Having too much "beta drift" (sus therein), it likes to move these systems into the Sargasso Sea while maintaining a west track at like 36 N.. Compensating for these behavior biases may see a TC closer to the NE Windward Islands by D6 or 7 ... which also fits the EPS, although I that forecast system seems a little weak considering the favorable main metrics of lowering shear, ample OHC, and lowering SAL. All these facets ... mmm, I won't calling them compelling just yet. Too strong. But, I'm willing to actually look at the models this time. LOL

Mmm not right. The bold is a miss-representation of both intent, but even black and white written word. For someone that spends the amount of time as you do, composing these various articulations, you should perhaps spend as much focus for clarity on the other side of the pen. "... if this winter behaves incongruently more so than "average weirdness" ( haha ), which again... was suggested by climate model/predictions all along ( so is not unprecedented in that sense, the rise in 'unpredictability') ... it's fair to consider the classical methods are becoming less reliable. .." I've always made it clear ( ... when not being a snarky douche on purpose because it is fun to spark off meaningless internet fights haha ) that this is an art of tendencies. "Less Reliable" intimates that to the objective reader. That is not "John seemingly disregarding" anything. Aside from the fact that multiple other times, I literally have to write the sentence, "keep in mind, this is tendency" - which shockingly, never seems to penetrate or modulate the readers comprehension, particularly when having to do so violates the dignity of the curvaceous winter model. Gee. I mean come on... we're past this, or should have been 20 fuckum years ago, or whenever it was that we learned climate is a jagged serrated affair over time. The trend is not arguable. Our winters are suffering. That tendency model is constructed by the deeper trend analysis. Not by these transient seasonal teleconnectors, which are also flat empirically already demoing this is all academic at this point. It's silly to try and argue. You can get a big winter. Fuck yeah. Of course. We are more apt to observe that in 1900 than 1990, and more apt to do so in 1990 than 2025. And unless "broader consideration" changes, even less so in 2050. That's the reality of our world. Get used to compensating, and valid, reasoning that upsets the apple-cart of classic modes.

? any different in the winter

Two schools ... 1 climate; we're always getting some kind of decimal value feedback that corrupts toward higher numbers. Emphasis on DECIMALS. Still ... it plays a role. 2 excluding that ... this month has never looked convincing to me as an above normal month. The indices have up to this point been vague at best on that idea. Mostly what I'm seeing in the modeling is warmth getting pushed back out in time. Meanwhile ... with flat ongoing index signaling, that's usually a red flag for their being full of shit with warm(cool) changes when this is the larger circumstance. The operational runs have a kind of quasi elasticity in their behavior. The moment they're physics spontaneously engender a faux pattern relaxation, their processing goes on to bouncing the other way. But, then the extended becomes the mid range ...and reality corrects that. This song and dance happens on both sides, cool vs warm pattern foots. We see this in bad winter performance times, too, where the big pattern change is always just beyond D10. Then we finally get a snow threat in March after we've been conned for 49 days like taunted abuse. Lol. We more than merely symbolically ruined summer about 3 weeks ago, give or take. It's been a BN pattern in principle really since; whether that has been verifying precisely as that in the dailies doesn't deny the essence, however. Now, quite coherently a geriatric summer that doesn't have time to fuck around is suffering this correction on in time bullshit. (Also, it's Meteorological first day of autumn... which doesn't mean anything but just along the way here - ) So if you are a warm enthusiasts... good luck. Patterns do change. That could happen. But here's just one example of covert/sneaky correcting while everyone's thinking at warm up is en route. Euro, 24 hour correction ... barely noticeable, right?

Anyone alive that denies climate change in the face of more empirical objective data than can be counted in a single lifetime at this point… lacks critical thinking and in fact, their sense of awareness is ping-ponging between complete lack of moral intelligence and complete lack of reasoning intelligence, period

Sick maple color season's begun around northern Middlesex CO

I figured someone up there must have ... 46 here.