Typhoon Tip

well, for starters ... I'm ( personally ) not seeing "strong screamer" amplitude anywhere around eastern N/A over the weekend. I see middling cyclones moving up into an antecedent only weakly resistant +PP, or even a neutral PP ... draped throughout New England and adjacent ON/QUE. A modestly amplified cyclone system would probably be able to erode into that regime, particularly if cuts west of ALB. But a middling system is also not transporting sickly sweet air with it, either.

That's the H.A. window though ... But I get it. People don't care about when the enhanced probability for precipitation event correlations happens, they want winter storms on the charts. I guess since the pattern change/correction event intro may be cold lacking that might present some challenges getting the wintry profile out of that period. Might have to rely on the "maintenance" system(s) that come after. Assuming the pattern persists long enough - cross that bridge ... I gotta say though, just from the veneer this is the best operational GFS generalized pattern scaffolding I've seen depicted from that model's extended range since a number of seasons...

I wasn't part of the conversation - I was at the Pat's game. fuckin' cold game ! anyway, what was the gist? I think limiting the N-S extent of the curving flow over the weekend makes sense, ... just given to the progressive and "speeding up" correction tendencies that began circa 2005 really, Frustration aside, it probably rears some corrective essence to some degree or another. But, it also brings into question how deep that L/W axis really will be 3 or 4 days on into the middle of the next week.

Fast atmosphere limits in both directions... Basically, in order to get the pelicans up here you need the meridian flow type, just the same as you do in order to curve the surfaces and create storms... You can't displace the the pig air mass any more north than you can dig S/W successfully south.

right on schedule ( then ) the Pac modulation/ collapse of the previous paradigm completes. That's opening the door to the cage of suppression, and out rushes the MJO

These clear and present examples of imperialism by the United States have got to stop or there'll be hell to pay. There could be a WWIII alright, and it wouldn't be triggered by Russia/Ukrainian identity politics/sovereignty shit. It will be the rest of the planet waking up and realizing what's going on. I almost get the feeling - or 'hope' it's just - that the we are a civility that gee, kind of knows that ? Hell, maybe even morally opposed, too. But is perhaps too nonplussed by the specter of it to know what to do. Not helping the fact that we are months and months away from any access/form of suffrage expression in the matter sufficient to have any hope of leveraging/enforcing a stop to these brazen acts by this ...fucking pantheon of demons that have come to be in charge. It's really seemingly like that. Or, if our civility really condones these acts of imperial annexing, cloaked in simple witted deceptions that are hardly hiding the real reason they are taking place ... then you deserve to your fate.

the other thing is when the MJO coherence drops I don't believe it's forcibly augmenting patterns - it's ability to do so is damped along with it. The wave does it's magic because it ignites convection that's move along and release latent heat ...that than disperses into the westerlies and contributes to planetary wave modulation ( strength/resonance/position in space ), which we observe in pattern biases ... If the wave is damped, the convection falters, no flux. I'm been a proponent for years that the MJO has this "receptive" requirement. There are times when the hemisphere is in destructive interference. There are times when it is constructive. I mean this is academic really. Even the ENSOs/atmospheric coupled states can be either positive or negatively interfering.

yeah, that could work... ( hint, I'm consummately having to run back along these posts and tweak edit words in and out like that. ) not that any would notice.

Hypothesis, but one I've formulated for knowing both the planetary wave spacing but also the interference schemes over time. I think the whopper persistent -WPO hybrid has been suppressing the MJO from propagating out of the marine sub-c. As an aside, the WPO was really more of a hybrid. I'm inclined to suspect we didn't observe a better performing -WPO hemisphere. Rather, one guided by an odd and possibly 'unique' blocking circumstance ( could be historically notable, tho under the radar) One that just happened to overlap the WPO domain and sag the numerology by intrusion. It's the difference between numbers, and then the actual synoptic/spatial placement of features in practice. That thing was a bit too east. It was also for 10 days too S at times which was interesting. But it was balanced by a trough that partially overlapped the WC of N/A down stream... which doesn't typically parlay very well here for winter enthusiasts. The cold loading is where but the ridge was a negative interference...

Both aspects are true (bold ^) ... I don't believe anyone in the conversation this morning imposed a notion that it was ALL CC. It was probably me if that was the case HAHA. in which case my bad if so. I don't think I did but whatever. From me anyways, a lot is intended for dead-panned humor and commiseration. Anywho, I was raised through the 70s and 80s last Century... which in prose may sound like I must be 120 years old but I'm just middle aged. I have the advantage of life in both eras; I was around before the CC acceleration began to take place, and am so now ... I am also educated in Meteorology and Climate, which helps. The dearth snow periods of history, they are not always caused by the same governing circumstances. That's A. So, it's like comparing Ali to Tyson. There's inevitably going to be generational bias, too. We're human beings. So that's where you're right about that subjectivity. However, data is glaring. There are certain aspects that are also truthful anecdotal accounting, adding to the hard science. There are papers passing through the accreditation related to faster hemispheres/jets. Also, so called "meanders" ... these are pattern aberrations from normal, that when CC is removed they do not take place in computing labs. The synergistic heat waves killing at greater mortality en masse around the world... Flights setting air-land speed records with greater frequency while taking advantage of west-east flowing winter time jets moving along at a 3rd sonic speed... And just the observation of height compression, which is related to that. The extraordinary snow and rain rate events that exceed normal, observations in terms of increasing frequency - how many 500 year events do we have suffer in just 10 years before they are no longer just 500 year deals) again ... world over. Rays right. We are observing these environmental changes regardless of leading indicator spectrum - meaning the combination of various air, land, sea indexes. I've been trying to raise awareness about this, in here ( which isn't not exactly moving humanity hahaha) for years, frankly.

Yeah, i'm just being tongue in cheek there. Altho, i have become less annoyed over the years by these dearth winters. in fact, that journey has begun to conjure more and more resent for winters, in general - not that anyone asked. I'm sitting here fending off fantasies of the smells of higher dp air. Crispy TCUs at sunset. Baseball games. Hot girl disk golfers that show god's fantastic artistry when they rotate there hips and upper sinuous through a throw... oh man. nice bike rides and low energy bills.

not a bad surmise, all sarcasm aside ... the compression, unfortunately for some readers and types out there, is what happens when the polar winter imposes on a CC footprint - the latter is not going away. the polar region is in fact warming at a faster pace than the mid and lower latitudes around the planet. check. however, the key is 'warming' - it is not warm. And in fact, where we are along the climate curve ...? the polar regions are still imposing a > +d(G) during seasonal plummet comparing prior climate generations. note, we are saying heights - there's also a catch there. temperature variance in latitude, in the lower troposphere, don't always reflect all that. heights are after homogenization of the whole system ... and there's still going to be -40 fuckum F cold air masses despite the deep atmosphere speeding up because the gradients in the winter are base-line like an elephant sitting on a trampoline. blah blah ... but yeah, that predicament sort biases that type of motion.

acceptance will set you free

it's pretty much dependable

The model tenor as of this morning ( really... for the last 10 years - ) heading into that pattern after the 10th .. 11th, yeah, ... ample cold, but once again, it means compressed heights and damping of trafficking S/Ws that would otherwise buckle at short scales enough to induce events.

Ops are detecting this at this point tho so far appear to be favoring the latter range. The period is fluid for now…

well ... there's a bit of an elephant in the room where 'it's happened before' ...etc, but this is a different beast - maybe...

Based on my own personal observations .. .the comparison between the recent decade and the 1980s has less real analytic value. The snow results are largely coincidental. Getting there via different means and not very good analogs. Beyond that ... yeah, in the spirit of commiseration I suppose both periods were unfriendly to snow enthusiasts than okay, it's a 100% analog. haha.

Fwiw ... the 13-15th showed up about 6 cycles ago in the ens as period to watch ... EPS and GEPs, but the recent GEFs have joined in. Still the case

this is an H.A./ +d(PNA) correction event that happens to be going west of us here...

ah, gotcha

not sure where that poster's getting 'continental flow' out of that 'after the 11th' but what does that mean, 'continental flow'? anyway, those trough nadirs are hitting a min as the 15th is arriving. classical interpretation would suggest there's a storm nested in that time range - but ... i suspect if there is, we need to get past the 7th .. 8th or so before that materializes.

Not to mention ( but will anyway ...), we've 'graduated' into a climate era where the so called 'torches,' I'd argue even in the subjective sense, make 50s a lot easier to do than they were 30 years ago under the same synoptic regimes. Tell ya what ... if folks have an problem with that, leave the word climate out of it and just say that for whatever reason which no one knows any idea why ..whenever it warms up in winter it makes it above 55 more often than it ever used to. Either way, if given any excuse to do so ... there's a fair probability that 40s will end up being underselling. So Kevin, you could see 55 ... but it would be overachieving on what forecasters think is possible. Because that's the other headache, over achieving is not ever modeled. Yet it keeps happening. I dunno ... I'd say you're playin with the kids college tuition if you're gamblin the temp down during the warm phase of all these changes.

It's going be interesting what these smoothed ens mean cinamas look like on or around the 7th .. 8th. Both the EPS and GEPS 12z continued/agree in their idea of a +PNA blossoming by 270 hours, which then within just 3 or 4 days, retrogrades and/or repositions a new ridge in the EPO domain. In fact, the GEPs is rather exotic looking. In principle they agree on that evolution. The GEFs on the other hand offers a more tamed looking +PNA, which then moves and/or retrogrades into the hybrid position between the +PNA and -EPO; similar -EPO amplitude as the EPS way the hell out at the temporal horizon of fantasy range. But, all of these movies are after the big collapse in the N Pac out there in 4 or 5 days.