Typhoon Tip

Me too I think we've all had a run-in with that perfect someone now escaped over their rear horizon. ... perhaps never truly forgotten. The what-might-have-been if were not for the saboteur within. They contrive these torpedo designes to sink the relationship, manifesting all these frustrating plausibility's that we have to consider or else we're dismissive - see how they trap you? But, these implosion fears, they're far less likely true. So it's all but impossible trying to give them respect. Relationship, over. Brilliant ghosts. These people have fear of intimacy with this storm! HAHAHA

haha. well, if the shoe fits -

It's a common psycho-babble defense mechanism. For some ... being in a good state actually causes them discomfort - so they manifest to appease that.

Okay... for the first time I'm impressed by the model solutions overnight. 1 to 1.5' (that's feet) of snow "precipitating" out of a modeling consensus that frankly ... could be underdone considering the feeding circumstances into this whole thing. This is running an anomalously rich subtropical sourced air up underneath an impressive if not historically cold air mass intrusion currently just entering the NP ... This air mass will continue to load into everywhere N of roughly Houston Texas to Va Beach - obviously colder N within that immense region. Meanwhile, said starkly opposing air mass is bulging back N, or trying to (...it's going over top!) from southern TX across the Gulf interface with the continent down there. As an aside, this really looks like a battle between well established and sufficiently time laged MJO Phase 6 modulation, which is trying to realize it's correlated temperature/moisture bias, which is rich in the OV/TN region; where incongruously ...we find said mammoth cold invasion setting up. Thus, an immense conflict has emerged(ing) at both larger teleconnection scaled correlations, as well as what is physically being actually observed. And here I've been focused on the 29-02 dates ( and still am interested in that range, btw ). I kind of missed this I think. If I'm being totally honest. I see this now as a planetary event. What I mean by that, it is rooted in all these super structures ... modulations that have come into larger scaled conflict set to take place. This is a WHOPPER of a correction event. Ginormous opposing planetary signals set to resolve their differences, impacting half the country to do it. About the only con to this happening as such at this point ... we have to keep in mind that everything described/analyzed above is based upon the virtual plot/movie history of the guidance. They could be telling the wrong story... I see that as less likely, tho - shy of moderating impacts in specific areas and back yards, when the whole of thing is manifested out of these root observations about the state of the larger environment, that's a clue to deterministic comfort when that is the case. Something has to correct this mess, we have model solutions capable of doing it. There's not much else we can do.

yup ... nothing's gonna to happen here

Just to reiterate ... this is a low-grade cyclone and associated parametrics, but having a disproportionately larger ( much larger relative to climo on such cyclones - ) QPF potential due to maximizing PWAT anomalous air mass transported up and over cold/isentropic burst. I don't have a lot of personal faith in the idea of this thing having a lag back low pressure and active CCB - or if so...would that even be strong enough to be appreciably larger than what happens from the front loaded IB. As it looks now ( as in at this time) I'd go with .7 .. .9 if asked, and it's probably pretty evenly distributed ... or more so than the banding that happens from deeper cyclonic mechanics

wow, so other institutions saw this happening too. awesome

Ha, not the most responsible take on matters buuuut, we did a tongue-in-cheek study when I was an undergrad and found that it was true! A corr. coef. existed between delayed or failed transmission of model products preceding storms that actually took place. not kidding. Someone would come out of the PC lounge of the weather lab to announce the MRF was late ...cheers and applause erupted.

Have been wondering that too, when the mid range attenuation would kick in. Models tend to lose 15 to 30% give or take as they relay through that range.

It doesn't matter who does it - just do it. like I said, the intent isn't/wasn't to shade anyone.

Not to bog down the rush ... it's fun!! But this period of time between really the 25 and Ground Hog Day has been in the indices for 10 days at this point. The greatest "non-linear" support has been 29/30/31 ... Feb 1 is still part of this total window, and could also be tapping into the background constructive interference. I want to start a thread for this, because I don't have a problem with well above normal/climo confidence for this particularly system. It would actually help it if the 26/27 event evacuates out of the synoptic scope sooner rather than later.

LOL... not meaning to be a dink or cast shade, just sayn'

It's pretty clear the GGEM is partially grabbing the low ... but only managing to shear/pull the pressure field west when it fails. I wouldn't trust this run, just sayn' what's doing there. It's significantly enough different in its handling the deep layer between the 00z and 12z to qualify as bad continuity. Those two runs have a different spectrum of implications between D.C. and PWM/D.E.M.

yeah, see I think it can. I mentioned this just a moment ago. It's really how much that geometry of the N/stream orients itself. Easily correctable from this range 'cuz we're not talking a major change there to lift everything.

There is a thread but might I recommend (Brian or Will ? ) that there be something more substance/elaborate/annotated/discussed as start? It's just an extension of this I guess. Anyway, this solution by the GFS is interestingly answering right on the heels of what Ray and I were discussing last hour, re the lack of true coastal storm development. This one's trying to make a go of a better coherence in that regard. In act, in fairness it's got one now, with sub 1000 mb ( granted not hugely so...) passing proximal to the BM. There's time to correct this all NW even more, too. I'm not sure I see why that can't happen frankly... It's really about the elbow of the N/stream out over Nebraska or thereabouts...if that kinks more SW-NE in orientation, this whole bag of isentropic bomb will plow farther N-W

Haha... It's like the GFS was late to the mid range performance, now it's trying to steal the show

I wish these event specific threads would lead off with something more substantive.... It should be a requirement.

Heh... I would at this point... there are no guidance that are zero on this thing. The causal aspect also appear straight forward, too. In fact, I'm thinking about starting one for the 30th, because that one interests me. LOL this one's an overrunning for folks that have a dopa dependency on blue qpf paint on wintry weather charts. yeah yeah

I don't know what your thoughts are on this ... but, the reason for that - I suspect - is the velocity soaked field. You know this, but velocity is expressed in both the balanced/basal geostrophic flow rate - which is high-ish because of the gradient being relatively steep through the period. But, also in the wave propagation speed... which via "Navier-Stroking" the mathematics can also be demonstrated as rooted back to gradient. Anyway, I suspect that 'leaving energy behind' is shearing physical observation of the above stressing.

i know it's 25-dollar words but it's wave harmonics - or lack thereof. The flow is too fast. The western ridge leading and during the 26/27th "continental overrunning bomb" is not oriented or behaving in such a physical manner as to set up better phasing - which is improved harmonics. Taller more robust ridge, blossoming as a trough is diving near the Dakotas or MN ..etc ... is what to look for. We " might" see a better performance int hat regard toward the 30th

Super imposed is the Lake Ontario snow belt ..

OH I hear ya! this has been a trying time for determinism - huge... one of the worst I ever remember. In fact, I'll just say I think this velocity saturation thing we're seeing in recent winters ( going back several years if not decade(s)) is really presenting challenges in being as 'old school' reliant with teleconnections - and the mass-fields that those numerics are based upon are also unusually unstable probably because the velocity is interfering with resonance. Things are having trouble setting up... Then you get those weird resonances that are superj synoptic. Like hyper driven to existence. 2015 Feb and dare I say, ... late 2025 Dec with that N. Pac odd-ball block... There's a large spectrum of behaviors that are emerging that are unusual and a lot of them I think can be mechanically/mathematically shown to be related to the U-component vector of the Navier-Stokes being extended. Fascinating ... and completely oblivious to anyone reading this sentence ...hahaha LOL sorry

I mean god! it's so frustrating dude. I typically don't wish stage 3 reproductive cancer on anyone but this motherfucker is trying my patience -

LMAO We have a current problem on my street here in Ayer where despite the fact that there are no homes/driveways geographically located on the south side of the road, this town's nimrod dumb ass fucktard keeps plowing from S --> N... We come out in the morning and we all have this plowed berm sealing us in with cardiac risks because of this dumb fucker. I dunno... it's so elegantly obtuse that maybe it's on-purpose?

wtf ... are you seeing that too ?