Typhoon Tip

This is all great info ... I'll just add that it is annoying at time to wonder if the general zeitgeist of denialism hasn't been enabled. If you look at this site, https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/ and cursory start going back month after month ... large numbers of them emerge that feature a region of cooler anomaly, either occurring right smack in the midst of one of human society's greatest contributing Industrial anuses ... or, near enough by to wonder if the sensibility was touched. We are not registering the big heat of CC like other places. We've had some memorable heat waves...yeah. But they've been rarer comparative to frequencies elsewhere. Our low temperatures are in particular, more notable in that regards spanning much of the GL/OV/MA/NE/SE Canadian region. That's obviously and intuitively related to WV increases ... but given the perennial circulation modal constraints, as the Pac flow moves across North America's topography, our experience is preordained. Well fuck if I can't make my point... I just happened to check and NASA just finished tabulating the January numbers and there it is again. The festering cold holes collocated with policy making-villes of the world ...and on and on and on we go - I just wonder/feel at times if what is needed is not having these blind the Idiocrasy from sensing the reality. Because this bias might be doping the minds of the general civility. Otherwise, maybe human kind will register the direly needed renaissance in their thinking about this issue

There is actually an ice signal next Thur + ... risk it's tricky how that boundary/where it sets up. Either mean is plausible

That window roughly 180 through 216 hours has huge sensible wx variance risk. GEFs = 60 at some point thru that EPS = ice storm ...at least per 00z means...

Heh Yeah, severe around here. It is an aspect we can do. Just per climo and common experience, it's not as often observed. We all know this... still good to set up expectations ( that'll be ignored the first hash outta SPC the sets up in early May ...) We do just about everything else there is in the spectrum of weather impacts, much easier. Although, big heat is debatable. As an aside, big heat around here is weighted down by an amalgamated pall-blue sky of continental bio-mist, confluent DP sources, and industrial fart ozones. It's amazing we don't have elevated cancer statistics compared to everywhere else, being that this region is akin to the atmosphere's colorectal exit canal for the continent. But as far as sending temperatures very high... in the many years I've lived through summers in SNE, there's always always ...100% of the time, something holding it down some 1 to 5. When dealing with the big numbers in deterministic weather forecasting, ...maybe this has happened and I just don't recall, but I know it is rare to see high predicted to be 100 (in the first place), and have it end up 105... That happens in Iowa, our same latitude, far more often than here. But we'll put up boat loads of 98s. Meh, that has to count as big heat.

Wish folks had more respect for the index methodology - it's correct the vast majority of times...not sure why or if there is reticence to either understand it, or implement ... but Monday was never signaled from that source and I painstakingly applied that logic and analytic content to the discussion over the last week... It's also this group frankly. In the face of presumptive/prohibitive limitation that is there, in place, the model run at hand that defies those mitigations with some cinema gets immediately pimped out. Meanwhile the situation was never changed.. Oh well.

heh... anyone and everyone east of the Hudson suffers this godforsaken spring region. sorry - no special treatment of empathy conferred.

"If I can just get Will to agree with the model that ups the d-drip dosage - "

amazing how warm that's on the brink of being, too. the unabashed 7 0 if that mean p-boundary aligns 100 mi NW

heh... 0-4 so far on that post by Kev

Well... obviously at 200+ hours none of this has much value but just for muse, you have the GFS backing a blue cling-snow bomb into a grid failed eastern NE, while the Euro's pushing up premature daisy shoots at that same time.

ding ding ding! 'what does he win, Johnny!' Now... one could have read my three paragraph physical dissertation on synoptic NVA's damping effects down at the short wave PVA scale as it was written probably three different ways over the last three days OR, 'had almost no chance' would have equally sufficed -

the problem is ... he and others like him just lampooned the GFS last week with pretty much the exact same sentence LOL I mean, any model too ugly to tongue bathe the balls of horny storm visions is on the #MeToo list with these people

I've mastered the ability as I've aged, to compartmentalize druthers aside from the objective ( or attempts at being so...) analytic stuff. I can to a very close tolerance, be as realistic about a blue bomb or blizzard or whatever at this time of year moving forward, while at the same time ... admitting that I'd rather it be 80 F and the earliest spring/warm season in history ... And the upshot of the latter dream is that it's two-pronged rewarding - should it ever come to pass: on one hand, masturbatory beautiful days to get out and bike ride... disc golf ..regular golf ... woman with less clothing.. you know, all the recreation sports. While on the other hand, watching denialism squirm. Priceless. The ear song explanations as to why it's something they have actually zero education for formulating an excuse for is just deliciously entertaining LOL

It's 38 ... warmest it's been since ...Jan 22 maybe? anyway, I'd like to see less clouds. Brilliant sun suddenly no sun will cap things. haven't seen satellite ..okay, looks like sun destructive pancake advanced in. maybe it cycles out...we'll see

Not a bad approach. It's probably a very easy metaphor but is still useful: can't paint without a canvas

Yeah, I'm not a big fan of cute handling, in general. Not until quantum computing takes over ha. These larger smoothing techniques are as important in the total deterministic effort - or should be. I don't like the fact that the 00z doesn't phase that small intermediate stream S/W. It just had more power in the S stream, and by virtue of that...it got closer - but still short of getting it done. Then the 06z arrives. Technically, it's not even a phase. The southern aspect is pealing away S ...not that dissimilar to the GFS. It's just that it's taking that intermediate wave the GFS doens't curve in, and abruptly stemwinding that feature. It's enough of a continuity break in total handling to pause.

so in trying to analayze the behavior of the -PNAP response to the -PNA... it appears the GFS and in fact the GEFs system on whole is assessing a quicker -PNAP response, overall. The slightly slower Euro system in moving the conus into the -PNAP response, constructs critical curvature in the W. That subtle lag is tipping/conducting the N stream to dump small S/W space crucially SE through roughly MN is the 06z Euro version. Flat happy GFS left ... curve happy Euro right That's the whole ball game... this really subtle variance allows some kind of delicate phasing opportunity in the Euro system.

Index method says pump breaks, but we'll see. Anomalies relative to indexes can happen. It's rarer but, if the relay off the Pacific is more powerful ... that can offsets the plummeting PNA. That's about the only way; because otherwise the falling PNA means rising anti-cyclonic forcing. So if your trying to mechanize a cyclone in the midst of raising anti-cyclonic means... that both intuitively, and geo-physically/mathematically is going to introduce some challenges. The GEFs/GFS is physically subsuming the ejected wave space with an overwhelming -d(PNA) - in keeping with the above concept. The EPS/Euro, does less of that ... It's also quite a bit stronger/more coherent looking with the relay off the Pacific down near the upper Baja. It's almost like threading the needle at a pattern scale, not at the wave space... The integration of the ejected wave space with the surrounding medium is very decimal determined - so to speak. If the surrounding -d(PNA) is overly applied in the GFS even fractionally, that in step is giving something more to the eject wave space and its coherency then means a different fate ..etc. If it is however more correct, the Euro's full of shit. Brian's also right about those idiosyncratic feature handling; they'll play a role. But suspect getting the above ironed out is just as if not more important - more damping (GFS) and it's a moot. Predicated on the idea that the Euro's more right...that's when all those other headaches kick in

https://phys.org/news/2026-02-january-hottest-cold-snap-eu.html

Little bit of an ensemble fight

I'm inclined to think the EPS system is overly conserving the amplitude of that wave space in attempting to send it through the enormous non-linear destructive interference of the -d(PNA). It's not like it's dropping. It's going down like a disgraced prom queen. It's trying to send a cyclonic signal through a field where the anticyclonic potential is rising. GFS might not be precisely handling the bits and pieces but in principle, it latched on to this deadening signal sooner, has been consistent since, and actually fits the motif better. Anomalies nest inside anomalies some times.... I guess one way to over come is to have so much power at the lower scale, that it can offset the larger scale tendency to cancel it out. A scenario that seldom occurs.

No thx

NW --> SE general motion et al is a bit of flag, too

It's almost like the GFS is dropping the W into a -EPO tendency in the first week, and then walking away Meanwhile, the index interpretation is offers uncertainy. That N. Pac thing from late Novie through Dec is back in its haunt, but it's not clear whether it will mean same or similar or somehow idiosyncratically different over the eastern N/A continent. This looks like a cold stormy pattern at a glance but that ridge up there is sort of in the hybrid WPO/EPO space which complicates matters, particularly if it is resonant and not moving.

Under the radar aspect about that warm up in January. I argue it was not "thermodynamic" in character - in other words, dry air warm up. It's not the same beast as other. The measly 3" of white stone snow pack was incredibly resistant. We really only went down to bare ground in this part of the interior ... not until the last day or two of that span. Otherwise, a lot of 46 F highs over that apparently impervious to melt. It matters meteorologically because warmth in the atmosphere is both kinetic and also water vapor. But a dryer air mass will withstand just temperature more so than when it is accompanied by a DP that is also above freezing.