Typhoon Tip

I'm telling you the synoptic limitations that are in the actual models. The interpretation after the fact, not sure where this 'I gotta bad feeling ...' trope is necessitated from. Using your worlds, we can't even support the doom interpretation: 'even if 50%' ...well, 50% of what. .9 accretion? that's arithmetically only .45, less than standard warning ice. Ice "storms" don't typically manifest the way this is modeled for a reason. The event timing is too fast. Falls rates may be moderate, and accretion efficient for a time, but it's moving off way, waaay faster than climo icestorm typology. Yeah, 2007 ... but that was a unique situation, and it was also longer than this will be, too. As icing sets up, it release latent heat of phase change; there need be a constant lower DP source to offset this physical process of fixing. There is no source for that. EDIT, ah, I just saw you responded.

No need to... the cold you are referring is particularly low level, and not substantive in the mass loading into this system's preceding environment. The "real" synoptic cold is still low ... 22-ish with DPs of 10 or so, but with such limited +PP ( positive pressure pattern (high pressure) ) situated N, a 20 to 25 kt sustained 925 mb low arriving flow will change the setting very quickly. These metrical limitations on this system are not going anywhere. They are a predicament/detriment to this system's ability to maintain froze or freezing profiles. Lemme tell you something ... in late January 1994, we awoke one faithful morning to Winter Weather Advisory headlines in place, a temperature of 9 F on the weather lab's tele, and periodic flurries/grits coming down in the dim blue light of dawn throughout the Merrimack Valley. Deep winter was in place. By noon, sleet pellets had broken out, there was a south breeze, and the temperature had risen to 23 or so... By 3 pm, it was 31 F with steady freezing rain. By 6pm, it was 53 F with wildly swaying tree tops, and ice fog rolling off the snow pack and piles. By 9pm, it was 61 F with 55 mph gusts. Student around the campus had spilled into the commons and down town streets of Lowell's pubs, in short sleeve shirts that seemed to finalize a defiant mockery of winter... 9 to 61, in 12 hours. All because a cutter went through BUF-ish, and had no antecedent +PP to protect from the arriving WCB ( warm conveyor belt ) -related wind field. Now, this situation doesn't have a 65 kt 920 mb jet core fire hosing at it...no. But, the 40 kts with no leading surface high is going to still reverse the tables and do it probably at a speed that comes to some surprise to people, even in the valleys.

4 aspects go against anything of consequence... -- system movement too fast. 6 hours and the QPF's done reporting -- not enough in situ +PP over Ontario/QUE already dammed into the region. -- related to that ... cold is not being actively supplied with sub 0C DPs undercutting; without that thermodynamic fix, latent heat of phase change will self-defeat the situation -- not enough QPF This is a road skidder and a couple submissions to funniest home videos type ordeal ... I do agree though that with initial cold in the Ekman BL drag working with speed of system translation, the whole thing should probably be done with and on the west side of the escaping lp before warm sector makes very far N.

4 aspects go against anything of consequence... -- system movement too fast. 6 hours and the QPF's done reporting -- not enough in situ +PP over Ontario/QUE already dammed into the region. -- related to that ... cold is not being actively supplied with sub 0C DPs undercutting; without that thermodynamic fix, latent heat of phase change will self-defeat the situation -- not enough QPF This is a road skidder and a couple submissions to funniest home videos type ordeal ...aka advisory should do it.. I do agree though that with initial cold in the Ekman BL drag working with speed of system translation, the whole thing should probably be done with and on the west side of the escaping lp before warm sector makes very far N.

probably different reasoning vectors converging on the same idea... Breakdown of the Pac and introduction of +PNA is an H.A. signal in the gross sense but we're seeing it already in ensemble clusters The EPS with an impressive spread at 240+ hours is getting above the 95th %tile for this long of a lead. The GEFs still lag tho

Not speaking with confidence to any snow this that or the other ... but a significant event, Jan 6-7-8, has legs.

Huh? welcome to the internet, I guess. wtf

And note the complete disappearance of the erstwhile N. Pac. .... emerging +PNA/W. N/A low amplitude height response; may in fact be underdone as this is still an emerging signal. I suspect that to be case.

The indexes are loading the 7th thru the 12th of January, which is well matched with both experience based, as well as recent a-priori on pattern modulation discussed in the ending pages of the prior monthly thread In terms of standard confidence for this range? above normal for +PNA related event(s). Doesn't mean something can't break favorably prior to but from a holistic/all-inclusive field application the front and end of that time range above is the still blurry focus - which means we are free to move it some if needed. I'm not sure about events within the first week itself... That's a modulation time and yes ... events tend to happen when there's big mass-field modulations, but in this case it's gradual improvement of probability from the 1st to 7th ( as in lower to higher). It's almost like the previous pattern resists but then snaps all at once along that range. We'll see how it goes Beyond that's the entry into the weeklies which I find are less useful

the indexes are loading the 7th thru the 12th of January, which is well matched with both experience based, as well as recent a-priori on pattern modulation In terms of standard confidence for this range? above normal for +PNA related event(s)

Such high ratios, high stack efficiently

The main event! Radar vs the models

One implicating of losing the -EPO is the relaxation in the flow that takes place down stream over the continent. There's still plenty of cold air around... don't worry. But the upshot is that the gradient slacks off, and that allows the kinematics to conserve at the S/W scale. Right away, the Euro operational run takes advantage of that - whether it is correct or not ( likely not as is - ), the principle of a better pattern for winter enthusiasts immediately materializes there.

Some pretty heavy rad returns smeared out across S. Ontario pressing into Upstate NY. Likely to be an impressive radar display later on coming into the Capital District/SE NY, and as is typical ... you'll look at that and wonder how the hell could that miss. It would be something if one of these times ...just once, it didn't

The changes are starting out over the vastness of eastern/NE Asia and the relay across the N. arc of the Pacific Basin a bit over a week from now. I discussed this yesterday or the day before whenever that was that the GEPs was first, then joined by the EPS. The wave function producing that resonant -WPO feature out there that has plagued our side of the N. hemisphere is at last depicted to collapse. This is true among all ensemble systems - perhaps more aggressively so in the EPS and Canadian clusters but the GEFs mean's taken some strides. There's a few implications, some speculative... some known - but the caveat being that this all actually takes place. It's really out ~10 day whence the sweep begins... The timing can change, too. By the 300 or so hours out into the temporal range there is an abrupt reversal of the height anomaly distribution over the N. arc up there. Below is the EPS example. Change are coming ... Some very early indicators are +PNA, hinted already above with at least a return of the perennial W. N/A bulge over the Rockies. It's all very primitive.

Hmm a lot of "users" in this "psychotropic crack-house" are not constrained by negations such as the bold ^ ... because it gets in the way of their high. LOL Seriously ... if there were more willingness to objectivity, sans the most jerked off solution, that obvious and true aspect about the NAM would be elaborated upon by more people that just you and I and one or two randoms. But that's not what this engagement's all about.

You might be in luck … Major guard change signaled in the extended GEPS with coherent collapse of that remarkably persistent and intense -WPO, now being joined by the extended EPS. GEFs lag but I suspect it’s a matter of time …~ 10th+ of Jan This will send the roulette wheel for a turn … at least introducing footprints less neg interfering with the +PNA hemisphere … sorely lacking so far this cold season with that erstwhile signal - other than unstable quickly transient moments. 30th is a good example of this … That -WPO is an unusual/historic scenario and its sending odd wave signatures radically down stream. Need to get this inside of day 10 first

The track on this deal is as set as it can be. Variances that occur are within noise/acceptable error and not really predetermined It's the amplitude and QPF verification that is in question

The whole system seems a bit over-wrought. Wouldn't be the first time the guidance proved too amped ... Then in now-cast the lower edge of verification starts materializing ... Thing is, source-origin and climo. It's not favoring upper ranged numbers. This event is born of a dry sourced polar wave (clipper-esque), and isn't joining or phasing with a deeper moisture source - only the Lakes upstream as a moisture inject ... and it's not physically very clear that's actually being sourced, either. Additionally, it is moving fast. It smacks a little like over-cooked QPF moving above climatology velocities through the area. Could snow hard but too briefly. Will go ahead with the consensus but ... I won't personally be surprised if this under performs by some.

It's conceptually interesting ... who would have thunk we'd be playing needle threader head games on a NW-SE trajectory. haha. wow. Just got back from eve stuff so way behind, but I just remember the runs from 00z last night and comparing to this new NAM run reminds me of playing that game but I've just not seen it from this direction. fascinating

coming almost straight S ...limited/no moderation before ALB-BOS gets loaded. Kind of a brief 'Montreal Express' looking at the sfc PP.

Unknown ... to me anyway. I will say that these cold nodes moving across southern Canada and clipping in here have been remarkably well lag-timed with these successive -EPO bursts. Both the Euro and CMC's recency have been showing a Jan 1-3rd cold plume with very deep 850s and low 500 mb hydrostats at the core moving N of Lake Superior ... thru Ontrario in that time range, and we see that 3 days prior there is a negative EPO burst again... it's been like that for that past 3 or 4 weeks. -EPO --> 3 to 5 days later we have ice fishers out there with their portable shacks. Anyway, it's not impossible that -EPO loads and then transitively ...something synoptically circumstantial like Friday morning sets up to then finish the delivery.

Looks like Ray down to Boston proper are getting some breezy snows?

Did you see that Friday morning ? holy gelid hell. That's a potent low level cold shot there. I've been watching that interval as it has been nearing and it's been getting colder. The profile is interesting at Logan, Albany and BTV ... all showing the 925 as colder than the 800 mb.

It's not snow you want ... it's snow depicted for a cinema-dopa connection. It's created out of advancing technology's affect ( and effect) going on with our species. LOL it's true though. If folks wouldn't "bi-polar" dial into the next model cycle you wouldn't have these group collective morosity waves that are more powerful than anything this type of persistent synoptic hemisphere ever had any hope of really delivering in the first place. But this latter aspect ... never seems to stop you. You have a big ridge in the middle longitudes of the continent, with a deep layer circumstantial NW flow - what part of that large scale footprint has ever correlated to significant snow? Not many. Stop on expectation failure one. Failure two, meanwhile ... the mid and ext range guidance give these 'so-so gets hammered' dopa hits, when guidance over all consummately proves over-amplified since antiquity at this point ...and invariably need be corrected down as assumption. This latter aspect has been explained to the point of advertisement. Heads nod, couple blinks ...then the next guidance run comes out and eyes roll back in head and orgasm quivers kick in all over again. The problem is that the return users in here are dopa challenged in their lives - most likely. Perhaps then channeling a means to fulfill it by creating this weather graphics triggering mechanism. Or they've just fallen victim to the "blue-light special" - psychotropic addictive aspect that is proven to be a thing. Either way ... you're allowing this device to dopa regulate you. I feel the former is correct, however, based upon my own experience. I have created hobbies and successes in areas of life that do not require this weather -related stuff. I get joy from those engagements... and, most importantly, when that happened, I stopped caring about the former - or caring as much. I mean... I like seeing the charts and evolution of interesting events. But it's not required. I think if folks understood these aspects it might help them self-regulate their moods better. That's the only purpose for bringing this up.