Typhoon Tip

I know what you're getting at... It's the difference between a well mixed warm sector with amorphous WCB trafficking strata and more DP related warmth. It's 64/57 below the warm front and E of the main b-c axis. That kind of warm up is impressive probably more so in the DP/ thermodynmaic quotient. The kinetic side of the temp is hugely above normal but not out of control in this kind of warm up. The other kind, the big dawg warming events that are more index correlated ... those are ridge dome deals with larger scale DVM compression through an unseasonably early 850 mb to surface kinetic layer. The actual thermodynamic quotient of the atmosphere is surprisingly low... 75/27 type thing... Moisten that air mass and it's 44 F beat the red head step child weather. Those kind of larger planetary wave things are related to the loss of polar index/mass field modulations on the mid latitudes, and when the air is dry and there's 850 mb anomalies rattling around in the ridge, the kinetic ceiling is high. Which by the way...either tends to proceed a -NAO burst. All that warmth then terminates at high latitude and there's a height growth up there.

On the brochure for why you stay away from New England springs it reads, "It's great! Warm enough for nothing interesting but cold enough to eff us from nice weather. This is for Mar-early May."

Agreed...this is what Will and said a week ago... probably just ends up no side of the warm season/cool season debate taking a trophy

Agreed .. if using just just climate, but therein is an interesting consideration. Part of climate practicum is being aware of recency, without it being a recency bias - tricky difference there... But over the last 10 or 12 years, recency has verified something like 1/3 or more of the Feb thru Apr periods as hosting an exotic early season warm event. 80s dude. With warm fronts up near Baffin Island for f sake. I've seen that happen ... yet never saw that happen in the previous 40 some odd years of my life. It's a new thang, man... get jiggy wit' it. Or, has that stopped. I don't know, but recency has demonstrated it's no longer merely plausible... it can and will do so. So, what the models were showing 7 to 10 days ago was another one of those crazed potentials - or at minimum, suggesting as much. Couldn't dismiss it out of hand because of recency. Not really hard. There were several runs back then with 582 dm height contours safely N of Logan's latitude. But like you were saying .. idiosyncrasies that are equally ( obviously ) important raised some flags.. Canada and so forth

Firstly, "I" not comparing anything. That's a cite from the article. That's what the quotation marks mean. Secondly, it is what it is... The numbers show that the rate of increase rose from .2, to .35. you have a problem with fact of the numbers?

Here's a fresh itch for deniers to scratch https://phys.org/news/2026-03-reveal-significant-global.html "Over the past 10 years, the estimated warming rate has been around 0.35°C per decade, depending on the dataset, compared with just under 0.2°C per decade on average from 1970 to 2015. This recent rate is higher than in any previous decade since the beginning of instrumental records in 1880." Almost doubling the previous 4.5 decades of d(warm)/dt rate during the last 10, leaping from .2 to .35/d Probably 2023 has big arithmetic weight in that, considering it was unilateral whole degree C among all systems on Earth, air, sea and coupling air/sea. It does make me wonder if ... suppose over this next 8 years there is no sudden wholesale planetary leap by another whole deg C, doing so all at terrifying once, where the "density" of the species ignores the eye popping significance again: Would the next delta settle back below .35C? I suspect there is a rather larger chance in the total probability spectrum for that being the case, because looking back at climate change of the past/geological inference, the climate does not move up or down in smooth graphical trajectories. There'll probably be simmering increases that "leap" every once in a while. If you catch one of those years in your decadal data set, you're deltas will boast ( or perhaps "roast" heh ) a bigger change. The climate graphs are "serrated" with intra-time span periods that dips shits use to lout the planet's cooling off, or twist that to prove the warm data was faked... or whatever they need, while hailing from a position of really no much formal education and/or proven higher reasoning ability in the matter whatsoever ... so we should really allow them to guide destiny of humanity. Yeah!

Yeah I took a more discrete look at the ensemble means ( all three) and there's a lot of suggestion there that the eastern arm/warm frontal position never gets N of LI across the 11th. 1030 .. 1035 mb high pressure over Ontario amassing its way E into Quebec doesn't exactly campaign for blasting a boundary N of Fryeburg Maine, either, so there's not much there to pick apart. If the whole scope of it all changes, then fine. But as is, no warm up at all NE of mid Jersey next week. Next

Probably be an early heat wave in April

Too much PV strung out across the Canadian Shield for me to like big warm ups along the NP-GL-NE garland. I mentioned this over a week ago, when that was in the guidance ens longer range means; because of that the warm ups should be held in check. I called it melt and mud season. I now wonder if we get that much but will hold for now. If the former should prove more poorly/unseen confluences causing wedge highs to undercut ...no shocker. I've also been observing these models runs ever since... inch by inch have been eroding/rasping the tops off the N latitude of the warm bulges. I don't think the aforementioned PV constraints are entirely unrelated to that sneaky correction tendency/leans.

So yeah ... the Euro's ens system's had a hard-on for flipping the continent toward a strong +PNAP just after the Ides in recent runs. The entire PNA domain may only be partial during that 14-18th period, but who cares... if there's a deep trough transient in the region that's all it takes. If that were the only guidance available, that's probably a risk period. It may be .. it's possible the EPS has a better handle on the mid month than the other ens systems. Which don't show as robust of a +PNAP... In fact, their Pac --> N/A relays are more neutral in the total PNA character, conserving more speed/stretched wave lengths in the GEFs/GEPs.

That's an anomaly out there right now. Low grade but it is ... 27 dead air capped over by strata protecting a fresh inch of mixed glaze and sleet is more Jan 6 than Mar 6... As an aside ... I'm assuming based on recency that when the monthly mean is released by NASA, Feb will have completed the trifecta of core winter months all being well above normal, globally, while a small node of isolated negative anomalies - of only two or three covering the whole planet - will be situated right here. This is a blessed year for winter enthusiasts within said repeating oddity.

Noticed this too... most home sites up here crashed 5 or 6 F in 20 min just after 3am... dove down. 32 ... 33's were 26 by 4 am. All and all a minoring gunk event. 1/2 to 1" of sleet here. It's white though so there's probably a fair amount of low level needles and poor dendrites mixed in but calling it a sleeter

Tuck/ptype came thru a few minutes ago Flashed over to all sleet

This thing has a 31.9 straight rain "just realized my calibration musta been .02 degrees too cold all along?" look about it. Wouldn't be the first time the NAM sold big QPF from a little critter. heh we'll see

Setting the stage .. ... according to WPC ( and as expected - ) the front demarcating the big +PP air mass arrival has slipped thru unnoticed... Looking around at the DPs, there's a lag there, with colder DPS held up across NE NY/VT/NH/N ME. They're in the neighborhood of 30 F locally, which isn't likely low enough for ZR. Need to see the activation of some sort of ageo drainage jet. Also, if the sounding were to verify more isothermal+ it won't be enough for snow either; a solution like the UKMET or ICON would be on the table and most froze/freezing is N of the VT/NH border. One aspect the front demarcation signals though is that the correction vector points cooler, ... particularly knowing that high is building ESE and will get deeper, not warmer in the lowest levels however.

mm perhaps, but it physically can't go N in this case, not unless the blocking high pressure/synoptic structuring en masse are reconfigured. I don't personally see how that is happening or can? I would almost argue instead that this is a bump run. May even correct the same amt the other way on the next cycle.

Could almost be a silent passage ... ? at some point along the way the DP sneakiliy sheds 10F. The wind is already 0+ mph from the N/NE and the ceiling arrival time is perfect for cold capping in the diurnal cycle ( won't warm up enough to notice a change) so it may be hard to tell precisely when the front slips passed.

yeah... most likely the only one

I remember talking to Scott 4 or 5 days ago, this thing had a minimum/floor of moderate impact back then and it was kind of believable just synoptically because the feature’s playing into it were stable/predictable.

Isothermal sounding on this NAM over Logan. NE wind 30mph pushing S/S+ rates is nasty cake at 32

I wouldn’t get too hung up on models generating convection, and then using that as QPF distribution Thing is that these general isentropic event types are better handled by the coarser smoothed solutions. The meth models are going to spuriously trigger convection that is completely driven by chaos in the model and then that’s gonna turn around and fuck up all the works

is there a thread ... ? narrow stripe of low end warning snow overnight into Friday morning, underbellied by .45" accretion ice.

I'm hoping for more ice at this point than snow. That looks like a sneaky .7" of qpf which is respectable, and if that falls as snow, it's another 5 fuckum inches of white dog shit I don't need or want. At least .7" is only .45 of accretion, which falls short of power going out, and has the upshot of being gone within an hour of sunrise Saturday morning. Saturday could be like today... but ...that looks like there could be a problem with strata below an inversion cap. hard to say.

That high pressure keeps givin' too. Even though it's been smeared out across the N Atlantic in the grave it's going to ruin Saturday. Otherwise that'd be 62.