Typhoon Tip

What are your thoughts on the RONI science (other than a well-made pizza)

If that post was hard to understand I'm happy to explain another way. I'm actually very approachable and am usually willing to do so if asked. That said, I'm also not always serious in the way I deliver material - sometimes its whimsy. I was writing that way to kid around. Anyway, to put it differently, there is clearly a rise in occurrences that exceeded leading indicators taking place all over the world. It's a worthwhile bullet point in any seasonal outlook.

Folks may find this interesting: https://phys.org/news/2023-10-volcanic-eruptions-dampen-indian-ocean.html

Depends how cold one needs it? what do we mean by "cold" In so far as producing snow - we're already seeing daily depictions in the guidance for sufficient cold. 540 dm hydrostatics filling the continent down to 45 or 50N latitude with even marginal 850 mb temperatures means that a given location is within dynamical stone's through from getting cryo. But in this case, we are -10 to -18C at 850 across the expanse of the Canadian shield - with some run variance as to magnitude, granted - while we have -EPO loading going on ( at least during this 10 day window). However, if the interest is more focused in nailing the temperature anomaly distribution - at seasonal bulk, no less ... - yeah, that's a different animal. My own observations with the cryospheric stuff ( fwinw lol ) is that it's not so much the scalar value on any given day the field is observed, but the d(cryo) rate (as in faster recovery in this case...) seemed to show some linear correlation to mid winter -

For those that want a little more than 3 word posts re next week... Interesting from the 00z Euro cluster. There is now a more discerned signal from both the ensemble mean and operational version for vague Miller B --> NJ model cyclone. Prior run cycles merely hinted with more scatter. The 00z release emerged more coherency.. However, the GEPs and GEFs are less enthused. The GGEM operational version does generate a low/middling coastal response to the trough, however, as it attempts to rotate its axis through the bottom of the L/W. The general synoptic scaffold is consistent among all these guidance sources, which seems to leave the mechanics of the small wave scale that is embedded as the sensitivity for correction. The entire circumstance is marginal for temperatures.

Everything’s going according to plan from two weeks ago actually… This whole period of time was very well handled or anticipated just using the teleconnector layouts. Prior to the EPO you could see this whole thing happening as the natural progression over time, aft of a negative EPO burst. I’m hoping we get -EPO cyclic behavior later in the month … and it just evolves into a cold December so that we can really go anti-El Niño lol.

anyone that includes the following statement in their seasonal outlook will look and most importantly 'have been' quite savvy. 'Any given locality has increased probability during this changing climate era to observe single event precipitation results that surpasses their climatological storm signal by significant margin, even achieving a larger percentage of their entire seasonal total.' This type of synergistic phenomenon has happened too often, from summer rains to winter snows ... everywhere in the world, for too many years, not to consider as a significant impact type.

and are those really 'ladybugs' or Asian lady beetles ... the latter is an invasive species that look a goodly like the former but they are not the same.

that really is an eye-candy bomb there on that run. man - I mean, 1030mb high over Quebec with a 962 mb low passing between the islands and the BM. 68 kts of 1mb::1kt index rule later and a lot of people within turbulent mixing of the coast have no power for a long, long time.

80 here. I was even thinking bust up along Rt 2 this morning. We were completely sun shut and shut out of the shenanigans through 11am. Even had a set back shower around 10. Felt like it was happening like at me, because I really want this last warm spell before we have to fully commit to piece of shit weather that is too cool to enjoy out side, but not cold enough to snow and is utterly useless to everybody But, cleared all at once at 11:30 and the temp surged like it was July 2nd

The GGEM used to do that a lot in the early aughts. The versions of that model back in the day, like 1996 through 2005, it used to fuse TCs into cold core coastals every autumn. It was like a right of passage that heralded in the winter because although it never happened, it seemed to have a rightish idea. The patterns always turned cold around the time it was doing that. interesting... Not sure about this particular peregrination of the GFS but it smacks of that GGEM era.

right ... once in 1,000 years lol Yeah I know that's kind of a heavy handed snark there... But in all seriousness, adding the CC challenge to the notion that 1995-1996 could even get it done ( close though!), leaves me equally challenged to visualize how that could happen. plus - 'goes without saying. I've seen too many big snows in Novie/early Dec that were sandy decks by xmas nah

0 consideration from me. never happen ... if we wanna argue a .94% for, vs a 99.06% chance against, then yeah, technically not 0. Sure - dream away.

Yeah ...I wrote about an early November signal for sub climo cold in the winter thread a while ago. I left the idea of an actual event availing of it a bit nebulous, 'at a minimum a supportive atmosphere and probable initiation of LEK and upslope' It just was too early to be that specific at the time. I'm not surprised that we are seeing occasional solutions trying to turn that trough axis more neutral. In fact, two days ago, I saw that and thought 'if the Euro can just turn that sucker around the dial a little sooner we repeat the last 10 years of odd early snow shots across the bow. The Euro summarily began doing that. It may not happen that way... but the take away is that any system that passes through that synoptic framing in the first week of Novie has a chance.

It’s sounds ominous - that’s all you need to know …

I heard the sonuvabitch uses the the last shit ticket and leaves the bathroom without replacing the roll …

It’s an interesting question… How do we define insanity. Right? Really need some kind of advancing psychological philosopher… I know in a court of law there are psychological criteria that defines the difference between criminality vs criminally insane. I’m not sure “evil” is a metric in that lol

I think you guys are both right… There’s just a cross up going on between: a mental health crisis working in tandem with a demographic having access to firearms that could not objectively be construed as responsible owners.

I get it, but without reason…? By definition that’s insane.

Well … what are we blaming it on, sanity?

They’re probably trying to cut their total heating cost this winter by committing to their wood stoves. These energy companies are hiking rates unreasonably and seemingly unchecked

I pretty sure that event triggered a tropospheric fold on that ESE jet nose. Check that but I read that somewhere. We actually had some nasty gusts even here in that but just below damaging.

-EPO burst is driving the western lowering of hts this week ... The R-wave mechanics then lend to coupled ridge in the SE-E. Question for me is amplitude and residence ( time of 'standing wave' ). I kind of feel like the runs are not allowing the progression into the +PNA--> +PNAP and holding back some. -OR ( this is interesting...) they are, but what's happening is the flow is compressing. We trade the +PNAP geometry for a unusually fast total tropospheric geotrosphic velocities. I'm seeing some GFS solutions with 12 isohypses already. I hate to inform seasonal outlookers .. .you really need to factor in fast flow if that is not already happening. If we are only concerned with scalar precip tots and air temp averages for the season, that is one thing. But pattern residence with shorter lease, their leading mass field index modes also being less stable/prone to bigger changes over shorter periods of time. This will lead to increased potential for anti-correlated mode realizaton at times, too. Including ENSO to the doctor with a sprained ankle.

Heh ... I was living in Acton at that time .. I don't remember it that way to be honest. We had one or two unexpected/over achievers, but we had too many giant historical bombs that cranked the Cape at the last minute and we ended with flurry orb sun in 9F cold for me to be sold by that adjective. It didn't suck ... it left too much on the table though. 1980s were a special kind of hell. I'm not going to allow a C/C+ winter in the midst of it diminish it's uniquely dark value. lol. It wasn't just not snowing - it had of way of rubbing it in for years on end

There is some partial usefulness to the notion of 'too cold to snow' ... the problem is in the application of it. The reason that was coined is because colder air holds less water vapor. That, and ... high pressure N is both a cold pattern, but can often be too much of a good thing in that it can be a surface representation of a suppressed field. That is indirectly 'too cold to snow' but is kind of a Lawyer's definition of it. If one is lazy or playing with semantics (either), saying it is too cold to snow in a cold weighty high pressure ( suppressed pattern), you wouldn't be wrong that sort of, but you'd get partial credit on the exam. Fact of that matter is, it can snow at any temperature if the dynamics are sufficient. In 2015 February ... one of those coastal storms was a cold juggernaut, and we still managed 15 to 18" of it through a 5F air mass and wind gusts to 50 mph! It was like those blue light cryo scenes over a dusky Barrow ... sorry, Utqiagvik Alaska. That storm ended at 0 F, too... flurries with blowing snow.