Typhoon Tip

There's gotta be some zonked members in the EPS's 00z mean. The 500 mb height cinema of 22 - 24th certainly casts that allusion. One gets the easy impression of some big power diving over the Lakes and ending up around the Del Marva. It's probably like 2/3rds of them don't and have some other less savory or distracting type solutions in general, but there's definitely something weighting the mean enough to create this, which is (btw) a whopper signal from 200 hours out - the last time I saw a signal this coherent at this range was 2015. That said, the GEFs and GEPs are tepid by comparison. They both end up with coastal huggers ( the 06z trending away from yesterday's BTV route) , but paltry surface solutions are emerging from their mean. They do, however, cinema the 500 mb deepening spanning that time, so ... mm plenty of room for an emergence there.

about the warm up from the tail end of the month into early March: a little concerned about that evolving into a -PNA/-NAO hemisphere. A "little" we'll see. But the ens are little "hinty" of that depending on which I'm evaluating.

Very narrow on rad but vis down to 1/4 of a mile briefly with whipping blowing vortices of pulverized snow dust curling around building corners and fanning down streets here. Est about a 1/3" 28" on the on the season to very close approximation. Sun shining again ...

ICON came N quite a bit... 3-5" for L.I. but if bounces the same amount as it just did per this next cycle ...CT/RI and SE MA are in the game

https://phys.org/news/2024-02-deeply-discovery-earth-crucial-15c.html

This was torpedoing down the L.I. sound 3 or 4 days ago but has since been a D.C. Baltimore to Philly deal. The thing is ... it fits the -EPO. Very robust/ high SD negative mode up there, and the downstream coupled wave argument should nadir the flow across S/SE Canada ... which seems to support the southerly track position/correction. However, if the wave itself is strong enough it will imperceptibly favor a N tick, too. You know it's interesting that regardless of whether it's down there here or wherever that the models have had this little critter for like 9 days. LOL wow... can't buy a f'um token's worth of that kind of persistence wrt anything else - jesus christ

I almost think of 101 F in summer as the antithesis to breaking the 30" snow pack ambient depth in winter ( excluding mountainous region obviously ) It can be done ... but the return rate is pretty rare. We need a 25C 850 mb plume timed with sun up and only light WNW wind, and the ensuing rising sun shines through a pure unadulterated blue flame sky. One cirrus smear and it's game over and your 99.5 ... it's that touchy around here. That may change in CC ...I don't know

Takes some pretty succinct timing to get that combination of T and TD in our geography... We are closer to sea level, where it is harder to expand BL to the same hgt as land locked interior continental places like Iowa and Kansas. We just don't have the solar power to heat it enough at our latitude. Interior SE U.S. can do a buck-2/ 75 much easier where the solar max sun is up over 75 deg in azimuth

Well, luckily for heat enthusiasts, they are is an excessively dry winter scenario that’s unfolded across the northern plains. And I think the northern plains is actually key for our heat source. I’ve never been really impressed looking at all historical analogues with regard to WAR heat transports because even back before we started suffering higher theta-E everywhere that was always a dewpoint bulk type of hot air mass. Heat index values might still be up there and it doesn’t diminish whatever… but our biggest T side heat tends to be over the top.

Just thinking out loud. It's worth posit discussion whether any ENSO can readily couple to the hemisphere. It's long words ... but simple concept: if the surrounding ambient planetary thermal state become less(more) differentiable to these ocean-air indices, the correlated result won't look the same -

What interesting is that the 20/21st was on our original list of 'next signals' when we were looking past the last system ( around the 10th or the 11th ..) but has since been routinely torpid ...showing as you suggest, features that could get it done but aren't being arranged to actually do so. I suppose it’s worth it to keep it on the radar as a possible late correction The 00z teleon projections ( fwiw - ) are tightly agreed cross guidance, for a 20th PNA spike ... then a hint of one around the 24th ... ...after which the PNA craters beyond the 25th. That warm signal is intense considering the range and cross guidance/conceptual confidence methods...Jeez. We may go from two Charlie Browns to CC-happy headline if things break just wrongly enough. But, seeing as those same ens sources have a closed cyclone up in our region for the 24th... maybe we salvage one of them.

Didn’t know they were

Yeah of all three it's panache is most attractive. I like seeing the nadir at 500 mb passing more S of LI.

Can you imagine the apoplexy among the "winter enthusiast sports nation" should a full latitude phased juggernaut bomb wind up over Detroit ... Then, it's 77 a week later because the hints go on to setting CC's attribution bum on our faces and squeezing one off ? Man, some part of me would kind of be morbidly interested in being a spectator for that -

yeeeah maybe all that. plus, I was just trolling Kevin

In all seriousness ( and because no one has mentioned - ) ...the D9/10 ens means from all three carry an impressive cyclone signal ( considering the range..) through the NE conus. The orbital hemispheric synopsis/cinema shows a negative anomaly reaching it's lowest point under LI - relative to Climate. The GEFs has a low transiting NY State ...while the GEPs and EPS are on or off the coast. There is subtle suggestion in all three of a Pac S/stream wave space being ejected over the New Mexico route, while the N/stream is asserting a NW flow over Chicago ... possible presage to a "phasey" atmosphere but we'll see... Beyond that, the ens et al definitely suggest some sort of seasonal repulse might sweep over the continent - actually...the hemisphere. That's a warm wave number look. I do point out that when these warm looks materialize as of recent decade(s) ...there is a tendency to over perform. This phenomenon of "heat bursting" will perfunctory need that scaffolding to take place within, so... Just a possibility here - Any little critters in the foreground, notwithstanding

LOL ...stop trolling

Fool me once ... 'cept, honestly, the only two events we could justifiably give time to following this year ...technically did not fail. Just sayn' Also, the 24th isn't really coherent enough to "fail" yet... This season: it really more than just seems our problem is not as much event-centric, and more just lower opportunity count. I gotta say ...who in the world that indoctrinates the ENSO into their seasonal projection would have ever thought that storm frequency (dearth therein) would be the problem in an El Nino that had plenty of time prior to this cold season to establish a hook in the atmosphere. For me.... I'm perfectly willing to entertain the notion that this warm ENSO was not as coupled as it may have looked - there are other indirect behaviors that evince that possibility. But ... humans are "attribution happy" and can't wait to categorize everything into tidy and neat certainties, as a failing bias in everything they do in reality, and of reality itself. Science is a simultaneous battle against the unknown and the endeavor of discovery, vs the predisposition to fit whatever's observed into presumption frames. ..digress

ho man... I gotta say... for those of us who also embrace reality with open arms and don't gaslight our own perceptions by attempting to convince ourselves the elephant in the room is but a bunny on the table ... too many times has that look above, spanning the last 15 years, resulted in 70+ F in Feb or Mar - it was just a matter of bringing that outlook closer range. And then, the forecasts would blanket call for 64 because people can't believe it ... But, we do have 7 to 10 days to eek out a winter here so ... let's see what these little critters and 24th signal can conjure up in the meantime.

Oh god please ... Trust me, there are those of us out here that feign enthusiasm for winter on Feb 15's after 75 straight days of Meteorological inches up the butt winter. save for two storms, that is ... lol

Except that it has factually per what has actually really modeled to be trending S

Knowing the global temperature curve of the time ... prior and since, it does intuitively suggest there might have been some kind of feedback that was endemic to mid latitude N/A. ...thinking vestigial effects lingering from the Dust Bowl era... It would be interesting to know what was going on in Eurasia, S. America and Australia - almost wondering if the spikes in that 1940/early 50s era might be weighted by said N/A warm bias.. c/o NASA

I don't believe that was an "assertion" to be taken as an aver of fact. He's not that stupid - no...people are being too sensitive. It was a tongue in cheek sardonic poke at the predicament of it. That's how I read it. That's how it should have been read.

OH I don't know. I wasn't impugning ... I heard about the snowy year. But I didn't know of the temperature stuff

We have to think of this along deltas. The delta is consummately going to be pointed in a warming direction - all told science included. But that's not absolute. We're not standing on the sun for acknowledging that objectively, here. Of course we can still sustain a winter - What does sustain mean, anyway. If it means matching "expectations" ? NO, that will never happen. There's only so much heroine in Earth's atmosphere... But everyone also just leans the expectation too far over the line relative to all input anyway. In 1995-1996, the greatest winter I ever experienced for longevity...we couldn't even sustain it the whole way. We had a 2 or 3 week melt down in the midst of it that put the stank on the phrase muddy thaw. Winter came back and persisted into the first couple of weeks of April. But all that aside... the probability of sustaining winter for longer durations ( keeping it ambivalent like that), is going down. That much isn't up to my confidence, ...so long as the world keeps warming and these materialization of consequences continue to offset, there is no other conclusion. But "going down" is often interpreted as rock bottom in the panic prone withdraw syndrome of the d-drip hopefuls.