Typhoon Tip

wait until it gets bad for those with sensitivity to tick borne deadly pathogens and brain eating amoebas

What if it doesn't snow an inch until March ...then we get 70 inches - what then

It's a 'flaw in the design' of social media. How does moderation ( which frankly in here ... doesn't seem to care or actually monitor - different discussion) determine the difference ? Plus, you and I troll each other ( for example) but we're sincerely busting balls for laughs. You can't allow that, and but then not allow the others. Yeah, the "intent" of others may be nauseatingly obviously and an insult-to-intelligence cloaked in careful phrasing - but it's not like it's okay to hijack a car if your just joking around? I'm kind of with JD. I just ignore 'em. But ... I don't even 'block' Uuusually I just can tell within the first sentence where the poster's intent most likely lies ( and "lies" ) and scroll on by. I mean it's not hard to do so. Usually good intentions qualify their remarks. When that never happens, just spewing ... immediately suspect. Other times? Ha, I may actually agree with them. Even when they are "really" trying to poke balls from the back, the joke may even be on them. They're unwittingly agreeing. Anyway yeah, there's a difference between objective criticism and/or objective forecasts that don't agree, vs those that attempt to 'sound' like they are in that group but are disingenuous about their intentions - the solution is to grant them no audience.

mm Teleconnection spread looked contentious for mid month, though. We have a -EPO early on, and there's ample suggestion among the operational runs ... materializing cold into the Canadian shield as a result of that. It's gonna set up volatility and potential for time as that happens - no question. But beyond the 5th, the EPO fades and actually flips positive in the index projections from all three ens sources. If the PNA were to stay positive we'd be okay - but the PNA projection beyond that is negative. So a +EPO/-PNA for mid month? It's a little bit of a head scratch though because the -AO/-NAO phase state is also in the outlooks/agreed upon. If these grander scaled telecon work out, it's going to be a merry-go-round badly performing operational model run era. I imagine the flow would have to be fast - wtf's new there, huh ... - because the Pac is a warm signal over the downstream continent, whilst the -AO/-NAO is not. So competing larger scale mass-field indicators makes for a mid latitude gradient rich environment with cold over hot. Seems the last several years ...one f'n way or the other we end up in mid winter with some kind of rage of velocity issues - so how's that for "persistence" ? we'll see

no argument from me. this seemed evident by late August or September frankly.

I don't necessarily structure my outlooks around analog method/philosophies, buuuut ... the overnight ensemble means appear to be leaning more Jan 7 as opposed to the Jan 5 . You might recall yesterday the trend was the other way/we discussed it. Then we have these la la range runs occasionally creating black hole quasar storms near the 10-11-12 ... I think above all else, we're seeing some of the most elevated potential power we've seen in quite some time painted on the longer range model canvas' As the next cold loading into the continent is very prolific, and down to perhaps 50 N, meanwhile this maddening warm belt lingers along the ~ San Francisco to VA Beach latitude. Pretty much a baroclinic particle accelerator between it and said 50 N. ha. That's probably why anything the model physics generate beyond D10 is exceptionally intense - any cumulus cloud that wonders through ends up being an Andromeda Galaxy. sorry babbling

The cold loading into Canada ( particularly evidenced in the 00z GGEM and Euro operational runs) appears classic -EPO related. Couple of plumes up there to -30 C at 850 mb. The fact that it's not really coming south of the border? that appears related to the collapse of +PNA toward neutral or even going negative. The vastness of the PNA allows for less tightly constrained results. What we need to consider when juggling teleconnectors (particularly when they are in flux), is that there can be idiosyncratic anomalies relative to what is the canonical correlated/text book layout. Some -PNA's appear instrumental in driving 60 F to Chicago and eventually Boston, while others hit a cold wall and a stationary polar boundary aligns just S of that axis. Mixing/snows on one side, and a tornado event south. These variances occurring at the same numerical index values. The PNA domain is truly huge. It covers such a vast geometric area that events over the Pacific may ballast the total index into a negative value, while the eastern limb of the domain (over N/A) may actually be structured more like the positive mode. And vice versa.. Granted comparatively less likely. The D8-9-10 of the Euro and GGEM have some syrupy cold right down to the border of Lakes/NE with Canada. That's awful close for the deep mid range model performance to expect that it's impossible for that to come south.

Those stem-wound bombs have been recurring in both the GFS and Euro beyond 300 hours. ( not intending to lecture you here ...) It's likely a factor of background volatility in a potential saturated hemisphere, more so than having a "real" system. I think when there is this behavior in the guidance, there might be some value in monitoring the period in question as the time ranges shorten. The idea there being ... as the time nears and any real entities emerge, they may be doing so in said higher dynamics environment. Maybe D9 ? ... usually by 7 if the system in question is destined to be a humdinger it start to pin to the charts as run-to-run identity.

serious Q' where did you find this ?

I still have not seen a lot of evidence that this El Niño is strongly coupled to the hemisphere to be honest. … there are aspects that appear to be so but enough that don’t that I almost wonder if the former are just coincidences

Fwiw the 4-6th a bit more coherent in the 18z GEFS

Does look like a slow moving spring cold front doesn’t it ha ha

Kevin, I realize you’re just busting balls - or at least I hope you are… – but just in case, no one promised jack shit.

Put down the beer. It’s past your bedtime.

… Basically, the normally inconsolable crowd in here is downright apoplectic, and cannot be penetrated with any form of rational thinking

Would still be a false assessment approach

Pretty sure he was honoring Kevin

Kevin … isn’t it past your bedtime ?

As long as you guys are clear and square on the fact that the models can be right about the pattern change, and we may still not get snow. In other words, snow does not adjudicate whether the pattern change forecast’ was successful or not.

It might even be the same system in principal… It’s a similar time range, so it fits in the Rossby argument. The telecon spread isn’t in favor of a coastal storm during that timeframe but then again, the telecon spread could also change between now and then. But yeah, if you’re going with the tenor of the season, and that whole Stockholm syndrome of not being able to visualize any other reality ha ha ha then sure.

Not sure about the 12 Z but the 0Z last night… The GGEM and euro models both had plumes of -30+ C at 850 mb as far south as nearly lake superior at one time or another in those operational runs. I figured it was a nod to the negative EPO didn’t really think about it beyond that because while probably true about cold loading the details of where and when precise spatial layouts and all that is obviously unknown at this range. But yeah, get that to turn the corner and dip down and there you go.

Does NWS do reanalysis on those when they know the thermometers broken ? That’s so egregious and it’s been going on so long I mean how many of these fucking sites do they have like this where they’re sinking around and letting them go; when is it going to affect the 30 year climate totals ? I mean Jesus Christ

Yeah... yeah, this should cheer everyone up

Yeah, it's not abundantly clear these warm intrusions are settling downward out in time. Meanwhile, ... we may have a -AO going on over the course of the next 45 days from other factors forcing the domain; I'm sure we'll be reading tweet after tweet after tweet connecting the two without that downwelling

Yeah ...I saw that. But, the wave spacing is really close to the 4-6th, which is real enough and from what I see, has been +trend in recency. If this latter aspect were not in play, I'd be more inclined to lean - not that I'm exactly leaning to begin with. haha. Too early Typically when we get these sort of contention/spacing -related looks, the lead ends up winning the debate. that is, honestly, more old school model performance-wise. Still, I'm not sure if at 9 day ( Jan 5) lead, the models can't swap those out. We'll see. I like the whole period of time so -