Typhoon Tip

Throughout this afternoon's unbelievably obsessive peregrinations of that thing ... "hook and latter" ... was discussed back in the 1990s. And. it's a play on words owned (most likely ) only to old school Met parlance... can we give it a fuckum rest now? lord

the Euro's not very good at that range. but, that doesn't exactly give any nod to the GFS, either - which has its own problems with believability

hard to believe it's been since 2018 ... I did okay in that event, too - had a few 4" diameter tree limb snaps with branches littering yards and town squares. Didn't lose power though. It was a high density 31.5F classic spring blue storm if I recall.

What? ladder is a device you climb latter means later in a series... as in, the storm hooks in later on.... = hook and latter

yeah I remember the radar backing NW and then just stopping ...ooooh so close.

Only what thing - I got 14" over here. So did FIT down to I-91...etc... it was a big area of 12+" ?

yeah...it's hard to trust that. I've notice a sequence (sort of..) over the last 3 days where about ever 4th model run the GFS attempts a "hook and latter" storm. ...then, the next run and they've inevitably faded back out... That sort of reminds me ( as is) of the Dec 26th 2004 storm that was a bomb but only got close enough to trigger OES into eastern Mass.

Yet...some of us are, anyway. 14" in a single dose is a text book major snow - even if people's dystopian expectation/lust has them thinking that's somehow pedestrian ...

You know it's a funny conversation - ... mainly for spectators like myself, who like to sit back in diabolical wait for the delicious posting wars muah hahaha. I don't typically involve in the luck debate. But, the hard reality is ... there is randomization associated with determinism in meteorology - a paradox in concepts there that I suspect is what loses people. "how could random anything lend to determinism "? fair question - the answer is, it doesn't. Determinism is not deterministic. People don't get that. Weather projection is a new advent in history ( trying to avoid being too 'deep' and glossing eyes). People need to understand how weather forecasting happens. Oh, they think they get it - but they don't. One important aspects that derails most ( from what I read in the public) on the way to their understanding: the pathway encounters increasing emergence of unintended forces along the way - these forces perturb the system in question. Blame quantum field theory but time permits randomness entering all systems. The only way to stop that is to control the quantum mechanics that is the origin of reality itself. This is referred to 'chaos' in common thinking... and time dependent systems cannot avoid them in our Universe - literally...it is a function of and how reality itself emerges. SO, "weather" people want to call it luck or not ... I don't care to get involved with people's personal grapple with shit they cannot control ( probably what motivates). But, when projecting the future state of any dynamic field ( to wit, weather is one of those types ) emergence of randomness makes absolute precision impossible. We are always increasingly reliant on randomness NOT violating the scope of the original projection, the farther out in time we attempt to project.

Yeah, it's hard to want to call it a signal this far in advance but it's pressing the 'period of interest' approach right to tolerance. man - huge. but, sufficed it is to say, that could also materialize in different ways. A period of time with multiple event coverage. Or as you say, some bigger singular restorative ordeal. It's just too early.. but, the three pillars are looming: numerical telecons are massively in favor; track -able R-wave modulations are switching the mode of the hemisphere into a text-book wave number; the back-ground correlators highly constrained. this can mean a lot of things... ranging from a single historic situation, to a series of important events, ...to even a variation between those too, just too far SE or NW to be ideal for our region. BUT, the eastern mid latitude continent is like a NASA targeting algorithm outputting bull's eye for a comet impact

For several days ... ~ the 4th thru the 11th ... we'll be passing through a 'sub-index scale' event management. That just means that things can happen, but they won't be as well signaled using the modal observations of the major mass-field domains ( deltas of the pna, ao ... epo nao dogs n cats willingness to sleep together ..etc) It's also possible that we'll go that distance in time but simply have nothing to track, too. But the swing potential is large with temperatures. If the ambient polar boundary some how gains enough latitude to be N-W, you could soar above climate by amounts that seem to exceed the in situ synopsis ( we'll leave it at that ) Lets hope for snow industries and general enthusiasts, we end up with a positively sloped L/W that mooshes the ridge heights S-E.

I would say that is an understatement if not for the fact that "doubt" has the benefit two weeks. 320 hours is unfortunately for confidence/determinism, just beginning to emerging through the "coherency lens" Otherwise, I have not seen one as impressive as what I am looking at in years, both analytically, and in the "feel." Vast array of both linear and non-linear factors are in teleconnector convergence. Linear is visible geometry of the hemispheric Rossby wave dance out in time - follow it along. Non-linear being the influences that cannot be readily seen, such as longer term correlations; and yes, the "groove"/feel of it is included in this latter

Definitely a period of interest evolving after ~ the 13th

It's unfortunate for deterministic usefulness but ... the next period of interest, having large scale footing, is 13th ... 16th. What form that ultimately takes... not sure. It could involve some modest cold loading with a weak but real -EPO preceding but then temporal relay into a d(+PNA) ... between the 13th and the 20th. Prior to that ...we may get something interesting from sub-index scaled events. Just means they are too small to be signaled by large domain deltas. Warmth/ridging in the Feb 9 range ...could be flatter.

It's kind of head scratching, actually ... The MJO is [apparently] better coupled now than it has been for a long while, evidenced [partially] because of what you said [and I agree]. The models are doing quite well to correlate a late phase 5 thru early 7 - with when/if applying the typically lag. What makes that interesting is that it should not be, not in a El Nino. Perhaps more akin to a La Nina. But it's not just the ability to couple so well - wtf is/was the MJO doing so robustly on the right side of the RMM in the first place. That's the neat part -

I'd be willing to bet the 1979-1980 futility would have been matched recently if the factor of CC- attributed PWAT increases were removed...

I wanted to get back and change both recent titles actually, but during the course of both run-up week(s) I was bombed at work; and so it not really being a huge priority in anyone's life ( certainly should not be), I didn't find the time do so - oh well. That said, I don't typically use the word "threat," anyway. Not a big fan of that expression. I feel/suspect it is used ( if unconsciously ) to lean everything in a euphoria pitch. I like talking about prospects more dispassionately than that. I refer to 'periods of interest,' and then if those coalesce more coherently, 'signals' is warranted. I find that tact to be necessarily neutral enough. I am aware that I do reasonably well at diagnosing these events in the D6-10 range - not my first rodeo and have been told this over the years. NO, one cannot guarantee therein who gets the 8" and who "suffers" with 3" ... But the confidences of those, this season so far, have worked out well being set at medium for good reasons -I'm satisfied with the verification on both. But therein lies some responsibility not to inflate using dialogue that contributes to that euphoria thing people have created out of weather modeling graphics-engagement. Which I frankly am not even sure that is healthy -

4" 26" on the season

It’s interesting… the ICON and GFS tonight are trying to perform exactly what we were talking about earlier with the hook and latter scenario They’re focused on two different time frames, but it definitely shows that there’s something in the background physics suggesting that period should be watched roughly day 6 through 10 along the northeast coast, the continental latitudes

I'm probably going to be around 25 or 26" for Jan by dawn tomorrow... so will more than less of the front yards between here and say Auburn, east of the Worcester terrain. I'd say that's not doing too bad for one month in winter. I get it the Dec didn't deliver - that and the last 3 or 4 years et al is an automatic indictment on this season. Nerves are fried for patience. ...But knowing this group of "addicts," ... this attitude would spurn whenever there isn't a regular diet of d-drip model candy LOL. Anyway, the next 2 weeks don't look like closed shades to me personally. I don't see a major signal depot out there at this time, no. However, the general telecon projections offer a static modestly +PNA, while both the EPO and AO cyclically drop toward neutral... That strikes me as a layout supporting/potential for sub-index scaling for the event tracking.

Unless the larger synopsis changes the best winter storm enthusiasts can hope for toward the end of the week is a 'hook-and-latter' scenario - a lesser known storm type because they seldom set up. They're just exceptionally rare. The last good one I recall in fact may be that February event in 1997 ( I think it was the year). Out of seemingly nowhere the then ETA model, which only went out to 48 hours, came in on the FOUS 12z grid with something like 1.4" of total liquid equiv. at Logan in 55 mph NNE rips with temp crashing through the 20s, by that same late afternoon. This, from previous periods having little or nothing happening at all. Oops! A very potent S/W knifed down along N-->S azimuth.. probably why it was largely if not entirely missed by previous global guidance ( models were not as advanced as present era). The 500 closed off and the cyclone that formed ..., doing so already well SE of eastern L.I., got captured, and while bombing it moves NW. This is different from "back-lash" Schwoegology - not the same thing. It's basically taking a normal SW-->NE moving precip wall, but having it move SE--> NW.. Imagine the standard model and rotate it 90 deg... Winter storm warnings went up for eastern MA in a rush. Blizzards for SE zones and the lower Cape. Walter Drag was writing the AFDs that day... As it were, it never did get far NW ...at least, not as far as the UML/Merrimack Valley area in Lowell. We had undulating sky of snow plumes that occasionally shat shattered sparsely distributed aggregates in the gelid wind. It was like 15 F with that virga bulging motion overhead, and if I wasn't so pissed off for that sickening feeling that that was all we were going to get, I might have thought that spectacle was fascinating to bear witness... A specter that really went exotic at sun set when the sky exploded into this fiery orange and salmon exposure of those undulating plumes, under-lit by the setting sun. They almost looked like the plasma roils of fire... But, the 12 degrees by then made it abundantly clear the visage had nothing to do with heat. I think they did get upwards of a foot in those SE zones though. I'm not saying that's happening ... but, if I were going to prescribe a pattern that I thought might lead to the creation of a hook-and-latter scenario, that might be it. Exceptionally high meridian bias there.

S ... borderline S+ at the moment. Straight down style. Zip wind. Temp down tick... 33.dec/32.dec

Same here... ~ an hr of 'cat paws' and now it's raining wet snow, but it is snow at this point. Straight down fast fallers. 34/33

I wish there was some sense of Moderator responsibility to this thread, because when someone posts a statement of point fact, and they are met in return with these insulting emoji replies ... that is not mere free-speech at work.

yeah... this is late March event.