Harry Perry
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Everything posted by Harry Perry
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Fall/Winter '24 Banter and Complaints Go Here
Harry Perry replied to IWXwx's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Man, you just awoken the inner 10 year old in me. The big snowflake vs. two little ones from the 90’s. Then later on, early 2000’s, the 3/4 row of snowflakes for heavy snow. The dual lightning bolts for “strong” storms… How times have changed. The good ole days. -
Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion
Harry Perry replied to michsnowfreak's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
This is no time for romance. -
I see there was a video posted this morning, pretty surreal to see. Pilot (or officer) waiting for that Delta flight to land was also taking a video of it, likely because of the intense crosswind and complete whiteout on the ground. I think Fox had it on Facebook. Nothing short of a miracle that they all managed to ultimately walk away, from a crash AND fireball. Pretty wild.
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Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion
Harry Perry replied to michsnowfreak's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Really “squaring in” on the suck zone for this winter. -
Tomato or tomato. Convective blocking downstream played part in moisture transport issues further north which ultimately changed the way the trough was evolving. Not saying your wrong, just saying it wasn’t just a janky h5 evolution.
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Very true and how most of us should look at it. Atleast we all have some snow on the ground, finally. And like Powerball said, we’re just stuck in the crappy couple year period… it’ll all come full circle. .
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About the same here.
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Truly one of the most difficult storms systems to forecast in recent memory. And the models? Pfft…. All risk, no reward.
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To be fair, the hostility is acceptable given the circumstances. Two (three?) storm systems with northern/southern stream energy in the neighborhood, all within a week… before more suppression, and it all went to hell at the last minute to boot. Plenty to be irritated about, but what can you do.
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As well as the 18z RGEM.
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I was just thinking about this as well. We’re getting old.
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I believe it has some effect as to why the models are struggling with the cold sector precipitation.
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GRR has an impeccable timeline with amounts posted. Made me laugh but I feel it was the best move. 4-14”.
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Severe weather down south robbing moisture transport north.
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00z GEFS is a thing of beauty. Sub 990 near Cleveland at 12z Sunday. Nearly Blizzard criteria (35mph gusts for at least 3 hours & 1/4 Visability).
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Had roughly 3” here as well. Maybe 3.5”. If I say 4” my wife will say I’m man measuring, again.
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Fall/Winter '24 Banter and Complaints Go Here
Harry Perry replied to IWXwx's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
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Edit* 1.5” here. Just went out to the board and measured. Can still see the grass in spots.
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Man, snowed enough to wet the roads here and has died right out. Lots of dry slots opening up to the southwest. How come when we get these systems at 33° it rains, steady and hard for 12-18 hours… but when it’s cold enough for snow - poof.
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Been busy wrenching today, I always come here before looking at guidance to take the edge off of the let down I’ll have when I see all the guidance showing 1-2”. From what I’m reading, still sounds like a shit sandwich. Hopefully we can juice up just a little bit to ease the pain. 3-5” here sounds promising, for now.
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Oh man, we’re rooting for the NAM… what have we done
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Well this went off the rails fast. Moisture is just not there. PWAT/low pressure/defo band all getting smaller and smaller and on 06z models even getting that more scattered look. 3-5” with isolated 6” further east looking more realistic as of now.
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I wouldn’t put much stock into the NAM quite yet, especially with that disorganized look. Just doesn’t make sense, almost like it took in bad data.
