Harry Perry

Sometimes you just have to laugh.

I knew it! In all seriousness though I hope you’re doing well and healing up. Spinal surgery is no joke.

Everyone’s favorite SREF plumes. One member has 48° so bit of an exaggeration on my end. Actually quite a few in the 40-45° range though. Granted, watching these models at 72 out hell even 3 hours out is normally comical.

This is so NAM like. Keeps our reality in check but at this point is an outlier. I’d expect it to settle back southeast with time. Fun fact, I never listen to them, but some WRF/NMMB members show 50°+ with plain rain for the majority of the event here, so could be worse

First watches hoisted for most of Kansas.

I agree with this. Lots of consensus on ensembles, almost a lock for much of the sub on 3-6” for several runs now.

Emotions are just running high due to the lack of better quality winter weather and it’s hard to read people on here because they’re all about facts and less about being personable. It’s been a shitty winter with no end in sight. Good reason to kick the ball and talk about it IMO.

6.7” on the weenie map but realistically 3” (until 06z when it disappears).

How about that “active storm track” 6z Euro shows 0.7” qpf here through hour 360 and less as you go west. Ensembles showing systems north and south of us and especially targeting the northeast. Old trends die hard.

Well that went to hell fast. Imagine the meltdown had this been a 3-6”er down to less than an inch inside 24 hours. I’m good without the ice though.

Definitely has an ugly look to it, but we do jump to the mid 30’s pretty quickly and a lot of the precip is convective in nature so that should keep accretion down a bit.

Yeah, I’d imagine it’s going to be lots of rainers. Maybe some pingers. The pattern has been like this since November, we wait for the cold and wet at the horizon, and it keeps getting pushed farther back. We finally got the cold, short lived albeit but little precipitation (outside of lake effect). Now on the horizon, I see lots of early spring systems with much of the sub in the warm sector and really a bias for warmth through the end of the month. EPS weeklies looking toasty. Kind of reminds me a bit of last February - maybe we’ll get another middle of the night tornado outbreak with some golfball size hail come the end of the month.

You’re tantalizing me here. I guess I didn’t realize you moved that far north. How are you liking it? Bring some of that down here would ya?

Yeah, this winter has been a dud. Lots of upcoming chances for cold rain with maybe a dusting of backside deformation snow. I truly don’t believe we will have an area-wide snowfall this winter. Still plenty of time for that to change but time is ticking.

Truly a once in a century (or better) storm down there. Think of all the kids that’ll get to sled for the first time and have snowball fights… they’re going to remember this core memory forever and probably be wishing for it again for years to come.

Man, you hit the nail on the head. Was ALL too similar to ‘91 and just was… off. Or should I say… Goff. Was great until it wasn’t. That hit on Goff should’ve resulted in a personal foul and ejection from the game, but that’s not only what cost us. 5 turnovers, 16 players on injured reserve - defense toasted. It finally caught up to them.

Pretty lack luster start around here. Been snowing for a few hours now - about a tenth of an inch so far and back edge moving east pretty quick. Might have a hard time squeezing an inch out over here if trends continue.

Thats all we can do any more. And watch football.

Silver lining.

I was just thinking, had this been all snow… when was the last time it snowed, heavy, for close to 24 hours straight? Would’ve been nice. Maybe someday. Lots of potential on the table in the coming week(s).

I noticed that a bit last night as well. Cold front pushed the majority of it out of here this morning. Stays out of here for the next couple days but I’m sure we’ll end up in the thick of it at some point.

HRRR dropping further south each run around here. Might be able to cash in on a little action.

Thanks for clearing that up. You would think that I would’ve known that for as long as I’ve been a firefighter, but you learn something new every day. I’m sure that’s the standard here as well, however I have in fact heard the siren cycle for well over 20 minutes in the past. Twice comes to mind in recent memory, 2011 derecho and then again in 2016 during a warning in Marshall. Seems more reasonable to sound the siren for the duration, especially for the people in that were down-wind in the warning 15-20 minutes away that heard the siren then when it shut off they figured the storm threat had ended. I’m speaking for the general public on that, because that is what they think. I mean, if the government can pay for “gender reassignment surgery”, I’d think we could afford to sound the siren for a PDS for the duration of the event. Just my .02

Had too much going on here to post. Had not one, not two, not three.. but FOUR bouts of hail. Each subsequent cell that passed had larger hail, starting at pea size and ending with golf ball/baseball sized hail. The tornado warned cell had a low base visible with lightning off to my southwest. Woke my wife and daughter and told them it was time to go to the basement the same time the sirens went off. They went to the basement and of course I went back outside to make sure it behaved. All local sirens sounded for 2-3 minutes then shut off for the rest of the storm - have some questions for my Emergency Managers on that issue. As the storm approached, could clearly see the base rotating but extremely hard to see much more than that. Was completely still and quiet with frequent lightning and constant rumbling. Could begin hearing what sounded like a freight train. Kept an eye on velocity scans and CC scans. Sound got louder and louder until the trees began swaying - then another eerie sound of banging started - almost sounded like someone slamming their door repeatedly in the distance, and that’s when the first golfball sized stone smacked the road out front, then the next nailing my two day old new truck sitting in my driveway… wind really picked up and went un-directional and the hail came down in buckets covering the road and yard. Got more hail than snow so far this month. Quick look at radar showed the couplet miss my house by an half of a mile to the north which would agree with the velocity scans. Then, hail finally subsided after approximately 10 minutes but lots of CG’s began just to my southwest. Checked the radar to see the cell behind the tornado warned cell getting its shit together showing massive hail signatures of course, heading directly my way. Went in and checked on the fam, came back up and that’s when the HEAVY marble size hail started with intermittent monsters (golfball to baseball). Obliterated both trucks, again and clearly destroyed both this time around. Just as the cell would pass and the hail and rain would subside, it would backbuild causing random golfball sized hail to keep falling every few seconds. Was at this time my fire radio stated there was a confirmed tornado on the ground near F Drive North and 26 mile road and near Rice Creek with damage to structures and multiple trees down. Checked velocity and CC to see a tight couplet with a clear debris signature on the previous scan over the aforementioned area. Long night. Expensive night. Then my daughter woke up at 4:30 (after going to bed at 2) with the stomach flu. Second time this month. I’m beat. Hate it here.

Typically this time of year the lakes keep warm frontal boundaries from surging northward past the MI/IN/OH borders, but this year the water temps are well above average and no ice - albeit still cold enough to create a stable boundary layer, just not as profound. They’re probably thinking that the warm frontal surge along with cooler waters will slow the forward propagation of the aforementioned surge while keeping the threat suppressed further south… but for interior regions of southern Michigan, especially away from the lake, I would beg to differ. Pretty conditional still, but may be in for a surprise.