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Everything posted by Harry Perry
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Well, that was fun while it lasted. Back to the regular scheduled programming relative of the last ~5 years.
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Winter 2025-26 Medium/Long Range Discussion
Harry Perry replied to michsnowfreak's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
14 days out - plenty of time to turn around. I remember not long ago the GFS and Euro showing 50’s and 60’s for thanksgiving a week out and look how that turned out. -
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To be or not to be a rainer… short range says 3-6” of concrete is coming. NWS says get out your rain boots lol. I think this is going to end up being yet another surprise around here.
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Winter 2025-26 Short Range Discussion
Harry Perry replied to SchaumburgStormer's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
The fact that it’s subzero and a clipper is going to bring RAIN tomorrow is comical lol. I feel a little grinch in this one. -
Dec 6-7th (It's not a clipper) Clipper
Harry Perry replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Late to the party but over-performed here with 5.5”. Couldn’t believe the rates this morning. Quite a few accidents too. This one snuck up on a lot of people. -
Dec 6-7th (It's not a clipper) Clipper
Harry Perry replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
These clipper not clippers don’t like Lake Michigan for some reason. -
Nov 28-30th Post Turkey Day Winter Storm
Harry Perry replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
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Nov 28-30th Post Turkey Day Winter Storm
Harry Perry replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Has been slow to accumulate over here, finally up to an inch. Might be an under-performer. Will see if rates make up for it as we go through the evening. -
Nov 28-30th Post Turkey Day Winter Storm
Harry Perry replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
We about to be rockin’ -
Nov 28-30th Post Turkey Day Winter Storm
Harry Perry replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Very fine pixie dust coming down, just enough for black ice on many rural roads. Started around 11:30, have a compacted half inch or so. Should be picking up here soon. -
Nov 28-30th Post Turkey Day Winter Storm
Harry Perry replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
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Nov 28-30th Post Turkey Day Winter Storm
Harry Perry replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
0z NAM is doing NAM things… drying out quite a bit in some of the expected higher-end areas in eastern Iowa/western Illinois. DVN goes from over a foot down to 9” this run. -
Nov 28-30th Post Turkey Day Winter Storm
Harry Perry replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
For real. I’d like to think the overnight shift would come in and hoist a warning for their entire area with the exception of maybe Huron, Tuscola and Sanilac counties. EDIT: Actually after checking over that way, nah.. warning area wide would be wise. 6-8” all the way up to Port Austin. -
Nov 28-30th Post Turkey Day Winter Storm
Harry Perry replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
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Nov 28-30th Post Turkey Day Winter Storm
Harry Perry replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Ensembles have been juiced and most of the short range guidance (18z) is increasing qpf as well. Also trending better for the eastern side of the state. -
Nov 28-30th Post Turkey Day Winter Storm
Harry Perry replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Must be contagious. First it was GRR for several years, now DTX too. I agree with you 100%. Second busiest holiday travel day in conjunction with 5-8” of snow and 30+ mph winds… just issue the warning. For many it’s the difference between waiting a day or two and just hunkering down vs. in the ditch with a wrecked vehicle or worse. Who cares if the amount of snow doesn’t specifically meet “warning” criteria, it’s irrelevant when it comes to life & safety IMO. -
Nov 28-30th Post Turkey Day Winter Storm
Harry Perry replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
I did read somewhere in one of the previous AFD’s that ratios would be as high as 16-17:1 which would be pretty impressive by November standards. -
Nov 28-30th Post Turkey Day Winter Storm
Harry Perry replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Ironically enough I was going to mention this myself as well. Definitely some similarities. -
Nov 28-30th Post Turkey Day Winter Storm
Harry Perry replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Winter storm watch for the entire GRR CWA. Local P&C showing 8” and still snowing by Sunday. Looks like gusty winds in the 30-40 mph range, so blizzard conditions at times. Still some time for the rug to get yanked but I feel pretty confident in a solid 6-10”+ throughout the sub. -
Until Saturday. Looks like we’re headed back to the hills with high heat indices for the weekend into the beginning of next week.
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Generally speaking from heat-waves in the past with dews that high, the temps seem to under-perform a bit around here. Be interesting to see if that will happen this time around, especially after this deluge.
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Yeah, it’s getting that 06z HRRR messy look. Have a couple of cells that have popped to the SW of here, but they’re behaving. Also another weakening sign, infrequent intra-cloud lightning with soft thunder. Sounds like one of those noise makers for sleeping.
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We’re on the compression stroke. It’s coming. Heavy sun here and 85°
