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Harry Perry

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Everything posted by Harry Perry

  1. Well, that was fun while it lasted. Back to the regular scheduled programming relative of the last ~5 years.
  2. 14 days out - plenty of time to turn around. I remember not long ago the GFS and Euro showing 50’s and 60’s for thanksgiving a week out and look how that turned out.
  3. “Rain for the next hour”… Been snowing heavily since it started.
  4. To be or not to be a rainer… short range says 3-6” of concrete is coming. NWS says get out your rain boots lol. I think this is going to end up being yet another surprise around here.
  5. The fact that it’s subzero and a clipper is going to bring RAIN tomorrow is comical lol. I feel a little grinch in this one.
  6. Late to the party but over-performed here with 5.5”. Couldn’t believe the rates this morning. Quite a few accidents too. This one snuck up on a lot of people.
  7. These clipper not clippers don’t like Lake Michigan for some reason.
  8. Has been slow to accumulate over here, finally up to an inch. Might be an under-performer. Will see if rates make up for it as we go through the evening.
  9. Very fine pixie dust coming down, just enough for black ice on many rural roads. Started around 11:30, have a compacted half inch or so. Should be picking up here soon.
  10. 0z NAM is doing NAM things… drying out quite a bit in some of the expected higher-end areas in eastern Iowa/western Illinois. DVN goes from over a foot down to 9” this run.
  11. For real. I’d like to think the overnight shift would come in and hoist a warning for their entire area with the exception of maybe Huron, Tuscola and Sanilac counties. EDIT: Actually after checking over that way, nah.. warning area wide would be wise. 6-8” all the way up to Port Austin.
  12. Ensembles have been juiced and most of the short range guidance (18z) is increasing qpf as well. Also trending better for the eastern side of the state.
  13. Must be contagious. First it was GRR for several years, now DTX too. I agree with you 100%. Second busiest holiday travel day in conjunction with 5-8” of snow and 30+ mph winds… just issue the warning. For many it’s the difference between waiting a day or two and just hunkering down vs. in the ditch with a wrecked vehicle or worse. Who cares if the amount of snow doesn’t specifically meet “warning” criteria, it’s irrelevant when it comes to life & safety IMO.
  14. I did read somewhere in one of the previous AFD’s that ratios would be as high as 16-17:1 which would be pretty impressive by November standards.
  15. Ironically enough I was going to mention this myself as well. Definitely some similarities.
  16. Winter storm watch for the entire GRR CWA. Local P&C showing 8” and still snowing by Sunday. Looks like gusty winds in the 30-40 mph range, so blizzard conditions at times. Still some time for the rug to get yanked but I feel pretty confident in a solid 6-10”+ throughout the sub.
  17. Until Saturday. Looks like we’re headed back to the hills with high heat indices for the weekend into the beginning of next week.
  18. Generally speaking from heat-waves in the past with dews that high, the temps seem to under-perform a bit around here. Be interesting to see if that will happen this time around, especially after this deluge.
  19. Yeah, it’s getting that 06z HRRR messy look. Have a couple of cells that have popped to the SW of here, but they’re behaving. Also another weakening sign, infrequent intra-cloud lightning with soft thunder. Sounds like one of those noise makers for sleeping.
  20. We’re on the compression stroke. It’s coming. Heavy sun here and 85°
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