Harry Perry

That’s cool. You, @MazooWeather and I should all get together for a chase.. Or lunch. Something. Would be a good time. Always appreciate both of your .02. We don’t have many on the west side of the mitten any more. @WestMichigan too. @sbnwx85is close enough to count too lol. Also… 21z HRRR completely tapped out. Hopefully we get upscale growth and enough LLJ to vent something over here later.

Just curious, saw the GRR tag on your location and you bring lots of knowledge here.

Do you work for GRR?

I just came to say, I may be eating crow on the rain. Currently on the lake and was watching some towering cumulus/stratus as depicted on radar to my SW. It appears to be hitting a brick wall. Haven’t even lost the sun over here yet. Just as quick as they were building they’ve dissipated to mid level haze. We shall see.

Yeah we bust on this one, have some stratiform rain in the sights down this way.

I was just thinking this as well. Both points. What got me is the amount of hype locally. Then last night most of the city lost power… not due to the “storms” but ironically a transformer failure at the main city substation at the same time the wind driven sprinkles and shelf cloud moved in. Now everyone here is expecting the sky to fall this evening “because how bad it was last night and it’s supposed to be worse tonight” lol. I’ve seen countless posts on Facebook, YouTube.. etc of it and it’s pretty ridiculous.

GRR AFD: The question is does the convection survive all morning and push across Lake Michigan during the mid afternoon hours. We will follow the HREF for guidance on this. The HREF weakens the initial convection as it moves towards or out over Lake Michigan this afternoon. This will allow the main surge to move in this evening out ahead of the main upper wave. If the first round of convection survives and spreads into Lower Michigan this afternoon that could modulate our event for the evening. We do not think that is going to happen.

Pretty “meh” feeling over this way. Lake Michigan and an overturned atmosphere (downstream) along with debris clouds vs an unusually strong June system. Lots of bust potential here. If things hold out or redevelop over this side of the pond then could be a big evening but timing is getting later and later and models looking messier/disorganized. I feel pretty confident in the Chicago area for some heavy weather after 7-8PM. 12z HRRR looks ugly.

Starting to look that way.

So much for the extended heatwave, but nice to have less humidity for a while.

Tons of power outages over here, but locally only had 30-40 mph gusts with about 5 minutes of heavy rain. No thunder here. Considering we were at 88/73° I’m surprised everything fell apart as it did. Eyes turn to the MCS over northern Missouri tonight. If that stays tame and south, tomorrow will be rocking around here. If it blows up and feeds off the nocturnal LLJ tonight and we end up with 2-3 hours of rain then tomorrow will end up a lot like today with more rotation embedded in the discrete cells.

This.

Was looking pretty straight forward for a nice little heatwave setting up next week… Now all I’m seeing are multiple days with backdoor cold-fronts bringing in cold air from Lake Huron.. sick.

I like the RRFS but it’s usually over-done. This is why I tend to like the HRRR as it’s generally more tempered. Between both it’s easier to draw a more-likely outcome during weather events. Will be sad to see it leave. NAM and its high resolution counterparts really seem to have shit the bed in the last few years but still will miss seeing what won’t happen.

Euro backing off of the heat coming later this week. GFS a little warmer but nothing big. Looking like quite a bit of cool (some 40’s) still in the cards heading into the later part of the month with eastern troughing back at it again.

You’re only 20 minutes away. We’ll have to link up. I’m over in the zoo all the time.

We need the rain.

Looking pretty shitty for the next three weeks. Mid-May through the end of the month looks better but it’s a pattern change overnight with little support lol so…

Yeah not liking the look of May locally. Looks more like late March for much of the month.

Cap is beginning to break here. Imagine this side of the lake will light up a bit shortly after sunset.

Yes from outflow boundaries as well as a strong low level jet pushing in from the southwest.

Swing and a miss here on storms for this evening. Got the gust front and plummeting temps though. Hoping tomorrow evening works out for at least a storm.

Was driving through Grand Rapids yesterday and noticed the Grand River was awfully high. Same with local rivers and streams around my neck of the woods in Battle Creek. Going to be a humid summer.

Agreed. Looks great on the hodo’s too. Strong cap until about 21-22z then development could be explosive. Warm day too. Dews in 60’s. Going to feel like summer.